| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
County results Daines: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Gillan: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in Montana |
---|
The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run for the seat in the U.S. Senate.[1] A primary election was held on June 5, 2012.[2] Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Abarr |
Steve Daines |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 382 | ± 5.0% | 14% | 22% | — | 64% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Steve Daines | 82,843 | 71.2 | |
Republican | Eric Brosten | 21,012 | 18.1 | |
Republican | Vincent Melkus | 12,420 | 10.7 | |
Total votes | 116,275 | 100.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kim Gillan |
Sam Rankin |
Diane Smith |
Dave Strohmaier |
Rob Stutz |
Jason Ward |
Franke Wilmer |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 332 | ± 5.4% | 21% | 4% | 13% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 11% | 41% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kim Gillan | 25,077 | 31.0 | |
Democratic | Franke Wilmer | 14,836 | 18.4 | |
Democratic | Diane Smith | 12,618 | 15.6 | |
Democratic | Dave Strohmaier | 11,366 | 14.1 | |
Democratic | Sam Rankin | 9,382 | 11.6 | |
Democratic | Jason Ward | 4,959 | 6.1 | |
Democratic | Rob Stutz | 2,586 | 3.2 | |
Total votes | 80,824 | 100.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Kim Gillan (D) |
David Kaiser (L) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) | November 2–3, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 4% |
Mason-Dixon | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 8% |
Pharos Research Group | October 26–28, 2012 | 799 | ± 4.9% | 52% | 45% | – | 4% |
Pharos Research Group | October 19–21, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ± 3.6% | 43% | 34% | 10% | 12% |
MSU-Billings | September 27–30, 2012 | 477 | ± 4.6% | 36% | 23% | 3% | 38% |
Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC) | September 23–26, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 34% | 5% | 25% |
Mason-Dixon | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 38% | 2% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ± 3.8% | 40% | 37% | 9% | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 33% | 27% | — | 40% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 27% | — | 38% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Abarr (R) |
Kim Gillan (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (report) | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 26% | — | 44% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Abarr (R) |
Franke Wilmer (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (report) | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 33% | 25% | — | 42% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Franke Wilmer (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 25% | — | 39% |
Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ± 3.4% | 35% | 25% | — | 40% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[22] | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
Rothenberg[23] | Safe R | November 2, 2012 |
Roll Call[24] | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
NY Times[26] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
RCP[27] | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
The Hill[28] | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Steve Daines | 255,468 | 53.25% | −7.16% | |
Democratic | Kim Gillan | 204,939 | 42.72% | +8.88% | |
Libertarian | David Kaiser | 19,333 | 4.03% | −1.71% | |
Total votes | 479,740 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |