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2019 Conservative Party leadership election
← 2016 7 June 2019 onwards

Incumbent Leader

Theresa May



Party leader and Prime Minister Theresa May in late 2017

The 2019 Conservative Party leadership election was triggered when the prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party, Theresa May, announced on 24 May 2019 that she would resign as leader on 7 June, and resign as Prime Minister when a successor is elected.

Speculation about a leadership election first arose following the party's poor showing at the 2017 snap general election. May had called it in hope of increasing her parliamentary majority for Brexit negotiations. However, the Conservatives lost their overall majority in the House of Commons. Subsequent speculation arose from the difficulties May was having in getting a Brexit deal acceptable to the Conservative Party. These increased in November 2018, with members of the Eurosceptic European Research Group pushing for a vote of no confidence in May, which was defeated in December 2018. In 2019, Parliament repeatedly voted against May's proposed deal, leading to her announcement of her pending resignation.

Background

After the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum saw a 52% to 48% vote in favour of leaving, David Cameron resigned as leader of the Conservative Party and as Prime Minister, triggering the 2016 Conservative Party leadership election.[1] Theresa May, then serving as Home Secretary, won the contest after the withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom, and she succeeded Cameron as Prime Minister on 13 July 2016.[2]

Snap general election and aftermath

As Prime Minister, May began the process of withdrawing the UK from the European Union (Brexit), triggering Article 50 on 29 March 2017.[3] In April 2017, May announced a snap general election in June, in order to "strengthen her hand" when she negotiated with the European Union.[4] May aimed to substantially increase the Conservative Party's slim majority, with opinion polls originally predicting a landslide victory for her party.[5] However, the result was a hung parliament, with the number of Conservative seats falling from 330 to 318.[6] This prompted her to broker a confidence and supply deal with Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to support her minority government.[7]

May's handling of the campaign was widely criticised, particularly the role of her two chiefs of staff, Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, who both resigned within days of the result.[8] In June 2017, George Osborne, a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, described May as a "dead woman walking".[9] A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times had 48% of respondents saying May should resign, with 38% against. A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday showed a similar result.[10] Former Cabinet minister Anna Soubry called for May to "consider her position" after the election result.[11] Former Cabinet minister Nicky Morgan said that May could not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election and called for a leadership election in the summer or in 2018 before the Brexit deal would be finalised.[12] After the Grenfell Tower fire in June 2017, May's leadership faced further criticism following her initial refusal to meet victims and her poor handling of the crisis.[13]

With May's position weakened, senior figures in the party were said to be preparing for a leadership contest and "jostling for succession".[14] Politicians and journalists did not expect May to lead the party at the next general election, with the Sunday Times Political Editor Tim Shipman describing "the first shots in a battle that could tear the government apart" in a July 2017 article as the three then-leading contenders for the leadership, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Philip Hammond, briefed against each other.[15] Junior ministers were also said to be frustrated at Cabinet ministers propping up a Prime Minister with no authority in order to further their careers, with some ministers preparing to resign in order to trigger a leadership election. Andrew Mitchell, an ally of Davis, was said to have told a dinner that May was finished and was said to be organising letters to force May to announce her date of departure.[16] A July 2017 report in The Independent said a core of fifteen Conservative MPs were ready to sign letters of no confidence, with forty-eight needed to trigger a contest.[17]

May reportedly announced to Conservative MPs in August 2017 that she would resign as Prime Minister on 30 August 2019, making it likely that the next leadership election would take place in the summer of 2019.[18] May then announced on 31 August 2017 that she intended to stay on to fight the next general election, which under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 was scheduled to be in 2022, though it can be held earlier.[19]

On 16 September 2017, Johnson published an article in The Daily Telegraph laying out his vision for Brexit. Many saw this as a way of positioning himself for a leadership challenge, though some commentators such as Newsnight's political editor Nick Watt and columnist Iain Dale argued this was the wrong interpretation and that Johnson's motivation was to assert his influence in Brexit negotiations.[20][21] The timing of the article—a few days before May was due to give a significant speech on her plans for the UK's relationship with Europe after Brexit, and shortly after a terrorist attack in London—was criticised.[22][23]

Summer 2018 Cabinet resignations

Following Cabinet agreement for May's proposals on Brexit, Davis resigned as Brexit Secretary on 8 July 2018.[24][25] Steve Baker, a minister in the same department, resigned later the same day.[26] On the same day it was reported that May was facing the threat of a leadership contest amid mounting anger from Brexiteers over her government's Brexit policy.[27] Conservative Party backbencher Andrea Jenkyns called for the Prime Minister to be replaced, saying "Theresa May's premiership is over".[28][29] Johnson later resigned as Foreign Secretary on 9 July 2018.[30]

A Daily Telegraph article by Johnson opposing the burqa ban in Denmark in early August 2018 sparked controversy about the language he used, saying women wearing the burqa look like letter boxes or bank robbers. Some[who?] saw it as an attempt to court an anti-Islamic segment of the Conservative Party membership, who would be the electorate in the final stage of a leadership campaign.[31] Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve said that he would not remain in the party if Johnson became leader.[32]

Brexit deal presented

In November 2018, May presented her final proposal for an initial Brexit deal following negotiations with the EU. Her Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and others resigned from the Cabinet in response,[33] with Jacob Rees-Mogg calling for a leadership election for the first time. Members of the Eurosceptic European Research Group like Rees-Mogg and Baker were seen to be launching a coup in mid-November following the Cabinet resignations. There was considerable speculation over whether enough letters of no confidence would be reached to trigger a vote.[34]

Fifteen percent of the Parliamentary party (forty-eight MPs) need to send a letter to the chairman of the 1922 Committee to trigger a no confidence vote in the Conservative Party leader. As of early afternoon on 16 November 2018, the BBC reported there were twenty-one MPs who had publicly stated they had sent a letter.[35] Baker asserted that more letters had been sent and that he expected forty-eight to be reached in the week beginning 19 November.[36] Some commentators expressed scepticism about this prediction.[37] By 19 November 2018, twenty-six MPs publicly said they had submitted letters.[38] Baker also suggested that the ERG could draw lots for who would be their candidate in a leadership election.[39] By 20 November, the forty-eight letters had not been reached, with Rees-Mogg predicting that it may be reached in December when the House of Commons was due to vote on May's deal.[40] However, facing likely defeat with opposition from the ERG, DUP and Conservative MPs who had supported Remain during the referendum, the vote was delayed to January.

Conservative MPs including Dominic Grieve and Kwasi Kwarteng suggested that the party could see members leaving the party or a formal split if the party were led by Johnson.[41]

12 December confidence vote

By the beginning of 11 December, the public count was still at twenty-six letters from MPs. That day, however, Owen Paterson publicly sent his letter and it later became clear that forty-eight letters had been submitted.[42][43] May was informed in the evening of 11 December and chose to contest the vote.[44][45] The confidence vote, called for 6pm–8pm on 12 December, was a secret ballot of Conservative MPs.[46][46]

In the week, May had been meeting EU leaders to discuss changes to her Brexit deal, but cancelled a planned 12 December meeting with the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in order to campaign to win the confidence vote.[46] May and her supporters argued that a defeat for May would mean that Brexit would have to be delayed.[47] In the late morning on 12 December, bookmakers gave May an 80% chance of winning the vote.[48] In a speech to Conservative MPs immediately before voting, May said that she did not intend to lead the party into the 2022 general election.[49] May also said that she would seek a legally binding addition to the withdrawal agreement with the EU to address concerns over the Northern Ireland back stop.[50]

Two MPs who had been suspended from the party, Andrew Griffiths and Charlie Elphicke, had the whip restored on the day of the vote, meaning they could also vote. Griffiths indicated his support for May; Elphicke declined to indicate his preference.[51] There were 317 Conservative MPs able to vote, meaning 159 votes were needed for a majority.[44] Every member of the Cabinet declared their support for May, including Leave supporters in the Cabinet like Michael Gove and Liam Fox.[44] Notable Remain supporters in the Conservative Party including Anna Soubry also declared support for May,[44] as did May's predecessor, David Cameron, and the leader and acting leader of the Scottish Conservatives.[52] The Tory Reform Group announced their support for May.[53] Notable Leave supporters outside the Cabinet, including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Bill Cash, said they would be voting against her.[44] By 4pm, 174 Conservative MPs had publicly declared for May with 34 publicly against.[44]

The pound initially fell on news of the no confidence vote, but rallied after indications that May would probably win.[54]

Vote of confidence in Theresa May
Support/Oppose Votes %
Support 200 63.1
Oppose 117 36.9
Abstentions 0 0
Majority 83 26.2
Turnout 317 100
Conservative MPs vote in confidence

May won the vote by 200 for to 117 against, in a result announced at about 9pm. Brexit-supporting MPs varied in their response to the result: some, including Rees-Mogg and Raab called on her to resign nevertheless, while others such as Paterson called on her to change her Brexit policy.[55] As May won this vote, another party leader confidence vote could not be held for one year under standing rules.[46]

Further Brexit delays and final days

On 27 March 2019, May said she would resign before the next stage of EU negotiations if her Brexit deal was passed.[56] With no resolution around Brexit plans, there was continuing pressure for May to resign through April 2019.[57]

After poor Conservative results in the 2019 local elections—the worst since 1995, when the party lost more than 2,000 seats—there were further calls from Conservatives for May to resign.[58] Davis announced his support for Raab, who set out a leadership platform in an interview with The Sunday Times Magazine.[59][60] With one report saying May intended to remain until autumn 2019, further senior Conservatives openly campaigned to replace her, including Andrea Leadsom, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid.[61]

May had said that she wanted Parliament to approve her Brexit plan before the summer recess, after which she would resign, which would have been around late July. Further pressure mounted on May to be clear about her timetable for departure, with May meeting the 1922 Committee on the matter on 16 May 2019.[62] There was talk about the Committee changing its rules to allow a new vote of no confidence in May to be held sooner.[63] May was reported to agree to stand down by 30 June 2019.[64]

May speaks about her resignation outside 10 Downing Street on 24 May

On 21 May, May made a speech outlining her plan to introduce an EU withdrawal agreement bill in June that would allow the Commons to make amendments, such as amendments in favour of a Customs Union or a second referendum, but this was received badly by much of her own party as well as by other parties.[65] There were growing calls for her to resign on 22 May, the day before the European Parliament elections.[65] Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the House of Commons, resigned on the evening of 22 May. May had planned to publish the bill on Friday 24 May, but on polling day (23 May) she abandoned that plan, with publication delayed until early June.[66] May announced her resignation as leader of the Conservative Party, effective 7 June 2019, on the morning of 24 May.[67]

Election procedure

The principles of the procedure for selecting the leader of the Conservative Party are laid down the Conservative Party Constitution, while the detailed rules are agreed by the 1922 Committee executive in consultation with the Conservative Party Board.[68] Nominations for the leadership are invited by the Chairman of the 1922 Committee, acting as returning officer. When nominations close, a list of valid nominations is published. If there is only one valid nomination, that person is elected. If two valid nominations are received, both names go forward to the party membership. If more than two nominations are received, a ballot is held within the Parliamentary party. An exhaustive ballot system is used to select two candidates to go forward to the party membership. The 1922 Committee executive are considering changing the rules so that four candidates go to the ballot of the party membership.[69]

Nominations will close in the week commencing 10 June 2019. The entire contest is expected to be completed by mid-July.[70]

The following dates below are the dates when the ballots are expected to be held, voting will take place every Tuesday and Thursday.

Event Date
Nominations close 10 June
First ballot 11 June
Second ballot 13 June
Third ballot 18 June
Fourth ballot 20 June
Fifth ballot 25 June
Sixth ballot 27 June
Seventh ballot 2 July
Eighth ballot 4 July

Campaign

A large number of candidates attracted attention or were the subject of speculation over an extended period before the election was called. In 2017, the main contenders were initially seen to be Philip Hammond, David Davis, Boris Johnson and Amber Rudd.[71] By early August 2017, Jacob Rees-Mogg was receiving considerable attention and he had risen to second in the betting markets after Davis.[72] There was considerable speculation that the party's leader in Scotland, Ruth Davidson, could stand to be the next leader despite being ineligible as she is not currently an MP at Westminster.[73][74] In September 2018, she said that she did not want the job and would focus on politics in Scotland.[75]

Following renewed speculation about May's leadership after Johnson and Davis resigned from the Cabinet in summer 2018, press interest focused on Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt.[74][76][77] Dominic Raab became Brexit Secretary after Davis. In November 2018, following his resignation from the role over a proposed deal on the UK's departure from the European Union, Raab became the bookmakers' favourite to be new leader, followed by Javid or Johnson.[78][79] Raab opposed holding a leadership election, but did not rule out his candidacy.[80] Esther McVey, who resigned her position as Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on the same day, indicated that she would stand as a candidate if she had support.[80]

By December 2018, Johnson, Javid and Rudd were all reported to be contemplating running if May were voted out.[43] In November/December, other potential candidates included Gove, Hunt, Raab, Davis and Penny Mordaunt.[81][82] Bookmakers had Johnson as most likely to succeed May on the morning of 12 December confidence vote.[83]

On 2 May 2019, Rory Stewart, the International Development Secretary, announced his candidacy for the leadership. He stated that he would "bring the country together" as Prime Minister.[84] Following a poor result for the party in the 2019 local elections on 2 May 2019, Dominic Raab, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove and Matt Hancock gave speeches and interviews that the journalist Tim Shipman described as a “beauty contest between those jostling to succeed Theresa May”.[60] On 4 May 2019, David Davis announced he would not seek the party leadership, and would instead support Raab if he chose to run.[85] On 8 May 2019, Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the House of Commons, stated she was "seriously considering" a second bid for the party leadership.[86] On 9 May 2019, McVey announced she would be standing for the leadership. McVey stated that she had "enough support" from fellow MPs to "go forward" once May steps down as Prime Minister.[87]

On 24 May, the day May resigned, Johnson told an economic conference in Switzerland that, "We will leave the EU on October 31, deal or no deal."[88] Stewart ruled out serving in a cabinet under Johnson over his support for a no-deal Brexit that he believed was "undeliverable, unnecessary and is going to damage our country and economy."[89] On the same day, Jeremy Hunt announced his candidacy for the leadership at a festival in his constituency.[90] Matt Hancock,[91] Dominic Raab,[92] and Andrea Leadsom announced their candidacies the following day, 25 May;[93] Michael Gove declared his own shortly afterwards, on 26 May,[94] with Sajid Javid and Kit Malthouse following the next day.[95]

On 28 May, Gove promised to remove the charge for UK citizenship applications from EU nationals if elected.[96] Hunt condemned a no-deal Brexit as a "suicide" but McVey said it would be "political suicide" to not leave at the earliest opportunity.[97] Both BBC News and Sky News invited candidates to debates.[98] On 29 May, James Cleverly announced his candidacy.[99] Hunt and Stewart both admitted during campaigning that they had taken illegal drugs in the past when abroad. Former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith warned on 30 May that there were too many candidates running and urged the 1922 committee to "accelerate the process."[100] That same day, Mark Harper announced his candidacy, and the 1922 Committee said it would not artificially limit the number of candidates who could stand in the contest.[101]

Candidates

Declared

As of August 2024, the following 12 MPs have declared their intention to stand for the leadership of the Conservative Party:

Candidate Political roles Announced Support from MPs Other endorsements
James Cleverly
James Cleverly
MP for Braintree (since 2015)
Brexit Under-Secretary (since 2019)
29 May 2019[99]
4 / 313

Michael Gove
Michael Gove
MP for Surrey Heath (since 2005)
Environment Secretary (since 2017)
Justice Secretary (2015–2016)
Education Secretary (2010–2014)
26 May 2019[94]
28 / 313

Matt Hancock
Matt Hancock
MP for West Suffolk (since 2010)
Health Secretary (since 2018)
Culture Secretary (January 2018–July 2018)
25 May 2019[118]
12 / 313

Other endorsements
Individuals
Organisations
Mark Harper
Mark Harper
MP for Forest of Dean (since 2005)
Chief Whip (2015–2016)
30 May 2019[124]
4 / 313

Jeremy Hunt
Jeremy Hunt
MP for South West Surrey (since 2005)
Foreign Secretary (since 2018)
Health Secretary (2012–2018)
Culture Secretary (2010–2012)
24 May 2019[125]
30 / 313

Other endorsements
Former MPs and MEPs
Sajid Javid
Sajid Javid
MP for Bromsgrove (since 2010)
Home Secretary (since 2018)
Communities Secretary (2016–2018)
Business Secretary (2015–2016)
Culture Secretary (2014–2015)
27 May 2019[131]
17 / 313

Other endorsements
Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson
MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip
(since 2015)
Foreign Secretary (2016–2018)
Mayor of London (2008–2016)
MP for Henley (2001–2008)
16 May 2019[135]
29 / 313

Andrea Leadsom
Andrea Leadsom
MP for South Northamptonshire
(since 2010)
Leader of the House of Commons (2017–2019)
Environment Secretary (2016–2017)
25 May 2019[93]
4 / 313

Kit Malthouse
Kit Malthouse
MP for North West Hampshire (since 2015)
Housing Minister (since 2018)
Deputy Mayor of London (2008–2016)
27 May 2019[95]
6 / 313

Esther McVey
Esther McVey
MP for Tatton (since 2017)
Work and Pensions Secretary
(January 2018–November 2018)
MP for Wirral West (2010–2015)
9 May 2019[151]
6 / 313

Dominic Raab
Dominic Raab
MP for Esher and Walton (since 2010)
Brexit Secretary (July 2018–November 2018)
25 May 2019[154]
22 / 313

Other endorsements
Rory Stewart
Rory Stewart
MP for Penrith and the Border (since 2010)
International Development Secretary
(since May 2019)
2 May 2019[164]
3 / 313

Publicly expressed interest

As of August 2024, the following MPs have publicly expressed interest in the leadership of the Conservative Party:

Potential

As of August 2024, the following MPs have received recent speculation as potential leadership candidates.

Declined

Endorsements for potential candidates

Endorsements for Steve Baker

Timeline

Active campaign
Withdrawn candidate
Theresa May announces resignation
Theresa May resigns as Conservative leader
Nominations close

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DecemberApril

May

Television debates

On 28 May, the BBC announced plans to hold televised leadership debates for the candidates that would take place once nominations had closed. All candidates who had not yet been eliminated would be invited to take part in a hustings debate chaired by Emily Maitlis, followed by a Question Time special with Fiona Bruce. The final two candidates would then have a one-to-one interview with Andrew Neil. On the same day Sky News also announced plans for a head-to-head leadership debate between the final two candidates in front of an audience of Conservative Party members.[194]

Date Broadcaster Presenter(s) Location Candidates Invited
June 2019 BBC Emily Maitlis TBC All candidates who have not yet been eliminated
July 2019 BBC Fiona Bruce TBC Final 2 Candidates
July 2019 Sky News Kay Burley Isleworth, London Final 2 Candidates

Opinion polling

See also

References

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