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Turnout | 72.1% | ||||||||||||||||
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Graham: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Harrison: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in South Carolina |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican Senator Lindsey Graham won re-election for a fourth term and defeated Democratic nominee Jaime Harrison. Bill Bledsoe was also on the ballot, representing the Constitution Party. The primary elections were held on June 9, 2020.[1]
Despite forecasting throughout the last few months of the race showing a very close race as well as Harrison having record fundraising numbers, Graham defeated Harrison by 54.4% to 44.2% and a margin of 10.2% in the November 3, 2020 general election. Harrison slightly outperformed Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who lost to President Donald Trump by 11.7% in South Carolina.[2] The election coincidentally saw Graham and his Democratic opponent win approximately the same percentage points as in the 2002 senate race, in which Graham won his first term.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Lindsey Graham |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research | June 11–14, 2019 | 1,183 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 70% | 4%[b] | 26% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Lindsey Graham |
Generic Republican |
Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research | June 11–14, 2019 | 1,183 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 79% | 19% | 2%[c] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Lindsey Graham (incumbent) | 317,512 | 67.69% | |
Republican | Michael LaPierre | 79,932 | 17.04% | |
Republican | Joe Reynolds | 43,029 | 9.17% | |
Republican | Dwayne "Duke" Buckner | 28,570 | 6.09% | |
Total votes | 469,043 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[97] | Tossup | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[98] | Tilt R | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[99] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[100] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
Politico[101] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[102] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[103] | Lean R | November 3, 2020 |
538[104] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[105] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Jaime Harrison ran a number of ads attempting to attract conservative voters from Lindsey Graham by elevating Constitution Party candidate Bill Bledsoe as "too conservative—but in doing so, the would-be attack ad offers up right-wing voters a laundry list of things to like about him". Bledsoe endorsed Graham after withdrawing from the race, but his name remained on the ballot. He criticized the ads as fraudulent.[106]
Meanwhile, Graham ran ads attempting to brand Harrison as a diehard liberal while connecting him with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.[107]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Lindsey Graham (R) |
Jaime Harrison (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Optimus | October 31 – November 2, 2020 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 41% | 7%[d] |
Data For Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 46% | 5%[e] |
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[f] | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 416 (LV) | ± 7.5% | 46% | 52% | 2%[g] |
Morning Consult | October 22–31, 2020 | 904 (LV) | ± 3% | 46% | 44% | – |
Data for Progress | October 22–27, 2020 | 1,196 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 46% | 8%[h] |
Starboard Communications | October 26, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 52% | 43% | 6%[i] |
East Carolina University | October 24–25, 2020 | 763 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 47% | 3%[j] |
Morning Consult | October 11–20, 2020 | 926 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 47% | – |
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)[A] | October 11–16, 2020 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 47% | 8%[k] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot Archived October 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[l] | October 9–14, 2020 | 605 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 40% | 14%[m] |
Data for Progress | October 8–11, 2020 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | 7%[n] |
Morning Consult | October 2–11, 2020 | 903 (LV) | ± 3% | 48% | 42% | – |
ALG Research (D) Archived October 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[B] | September 29 – October 5, 2020 | 711 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | 8%[o] |
GBAO Strategies (D)[C] | September 24–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | 3%[p] |
Data for Progress (D) | September 23–28, 2020 | 824 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45%[q] | 44% | 11%[r] |
47%[s] | 46% | 7%[t] | ||||
Quinnipiac University | September 23–27, 2020 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | 3%[u] |
YouGov | September 22–25, 2020 | 1,080 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 44% | 11%[v] |
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)[A] | September 21–24, 2020 | 608 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 45% | 13%[w] |
Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 764 (LV) | ± (3% – 4%) | 46%[x] | 45% | 9% |
Morning Consult | September 8–17, 2020 | 782 (LV)[y] | ± (2% – 4%) | 45%[x] | 46% | – |
Quinnipiac University | September 10–14, 2020 | 969 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 48% | 3%[u] |
Morning Consult | September 2–11, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%-4%) | 44% | 46% | – |
Morning Consult | August 23 – September 1, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%-4%) | 46% | 43% | – |
Morning Consult | August 13–22, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%-4%) | 45% | 42% | – |
Morning Consult | August 3–12, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%-4%) | 45% | 45% | – |
Quinnipiac University | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 914 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 44% | 12%[z] |
Morning Consult | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 741 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44%[aa] | 43% | 12%[ab] |
Morning Consult | July 23 – August 1, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%-4%) | 44% | 43% | – |
Public Policy Polling (D)[D] | July 30–31, 2020 | 1,117 (V) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 44% | 8%[ac] |
Morning Consult | July 13–22, 2020 | ~764 (LV) | ± (3%-4%) | 46% | 42% | – |
ALG Research (D) Archived July 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[B] | July 15–20, 2020 | 591 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | 6%[ad] |
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)[A] | July 13–19, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 41% | 16%[ae] |
Gravis Marketing | July 17, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 41% | 10% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 23–26, 2020 | 591 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 42% | 16%[af] |
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)[A] | March 3–11, 2020 | 804 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 43% | 9% |
NBC News/Marist | February 18–21, 2020 | 2,382 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 37% | 9% |
East Carolina University | January 31 – February 2, 2020 | 1,756 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Change Research | December 6–11, 2019 | 998 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 45% | 9% |
Benchmark Research (R)[E] | October 15–21, 2019 | 450 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 53% | 30% | 18% |
Change Research (D)[F] | September 17–21, 2019 | 809 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 43% | 7% |
Change Research | June 11–14, 2019 | 2,312 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 52% | 35% | 13% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[G] | March 11–13, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 55% | 32% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Lindsey Graham (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research | June 11–14, 2019 | 2,312 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 51% | 36% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Yes | No | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/Post and Courier | December 6–11, 2019 | 998 (LV)[ag] | ± 3.1% | 37% | 53% | 10% |
Emerson College | Feb 28-Mar 2, 2019 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 52% | 1% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac University | September 23–27, 2020 | 1,123 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 44% | 6%[ah] |
Quinnipiac University | September 10–14, 2020 | 969 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 44% | 5%[ai] |
In the first quarter of 2020, Harrison outraised Graham, $7.3 million to $5.5 million, but Graham had the lead in cash on hand, with $12 million compared with Harrison's $8 million.[120]
In the third quarter of 2020, Harrison raised $57 million, the largest quarterly total by a U.S. Senate candidate ever, breaking Beto O'Rourke's record in the 2018 Texas election.[121] He has also raised the most ever by a U.S. Senate candidate, beating another of O'Rourke's records.[122]
2020 United States senate election in South Carolina debates | |||||||||||||||
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No. | Date & Time | Host | Location | Moderator | Participants | ||||||||||
Key: P Participant. N Non-invitee. |
Republican | Democratic | |||||||||||||
United States senator Lindsey Graham |
Former SCDP chairman Jaime Harrison | ||||||||||||||
1 | October 3, 2020
8:00 p.m. EDT |
Judi Gatson
|
P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Lindsey Graham (incumbent) | 1,369,137 | 54.44% | +0.17% | |
Democratic | Jaime Harrison | 1,110,828 | 44.17% | +5.39% | |
Constitution | Bill Bledsoe | 32,845 | 1.30% | N/A | |
Write-in | 2,294 | 0.09% | -0.29% | ||
Total votes | 2,515,104 | 100.00% | |||
Republican hold |
By county
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Graham won 6 of 7 congressional districts.[124]
District | Graham | Harrison | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 52% | 46% | Joe Cunningham |
Nancy Mace | |||
2nd | 55% | 44% | Joe Wilson |
3rd | 67% | 31% | Jeff Duncan |
4th | 59% | 40% | William Timmons |
5th | 56% | 42% | Ralph Norman |
6th | 31% | 68% | Jim Clyburn |
7th | 58% | 41% | Tom Rice |