19 March: "The climate crisis is the defining challenge that humanity faces." —Prof. Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, in State of the Climate 2023.[1]
5 February: a study published in Nature Climate Change, based on 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge skeletons, concluded that modern global warming began in the 1860s (over 80 years earlier than indicated by sea surface temperature records) and was already 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels by 2020—a figure 0.5°C higher than IPCC estimates.[3]
February (reported): a Copernicus Climate Change Service analysis indicated that from February 2023 through January 2024, the running average global average air temperature exceeded 1.5°C for the first time.[4] This single-year breach does not violate the 1.5°C long-term average agreed on in the 2015 Paris Agreement.[4]
13 February: a study published in Current Issues in Tourism concluded that U.S. average ski seasons (incl. snowmaking) decreased from 1960–1979 to 2000–2019 by between 5.5 and 7.1 days per season, with direct economic losses estimated at $252 million annually.[5]
18 March (reported): the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer analyzed NOAA data and concluded that the average global ocean surface temperature reached a record daily high in mid-March 2023, and remained at unprecedented high levels every day since.[6]
21 March: a study published in Communications Earth & Environment concluded that higher temperatures increase inflation persistently over twelve months in both higher- and lower-income countries, with inflation pressures largest at low latitudes and having strong seasonality at high latitudes.[7]
8 May (reported): Ember reported that for the first time, renewable energy generated a 30% of global electricity in 2023.[8]
Natural events and phenomena
January: a study published in Annual Review of Marine Science reported that sea level rise's (SLR's) elevation of coastal water tables and shifting of their salinity landward—whose damage is "largely concealed and imperceptible"—makes potentially 1,546 coastal communities vulnerable to impacts decades before SLR-induced surface inundation.[9]
12 February: a study published by the nonprofit First Street Foundation reported that improvements in air quality brought about by environmental regulation are being partially reversed by a "climate penalty" caused by climate change, especially with increases in PM2.5 particulates caused by increased wildfires.[10]
28 February: a study published in Weather and Climate Dynamics statistically linked recent Arctic ice loss with warmer and drier weather in Europe, enabling "an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance".[11]
5 March: in a non-unanimous vote, the IUGS's Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy voted against declaring the Anthropocene a new geological epoch.[12] The vote leaves open more informally classifying human impacts as a geological event that unfolds gradually over a long period.[12]
26 March: a study published in Nature concluded that under some circumstances, change in albedo (Earth's surface's reflection of sunlight back into space) resulting from planting more trees can cause a significant "albedo offset" that reduces the benefits of the trees' removal of carbon from the atmosphere.[13]
27 March: a study published in Nature concluded that accelerated melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica has decreased Earth's rotational velocity, affecting Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) adjustments and causing problems for computer networks that rely on UTC.[14]
8 April: recognizing that climate warming causes many meteorites to be lost from the surface by melting into the Antarctic ice sheet, a study in Nature Climate Change concluded that about 5,000 meteorites become inaccessible each year.[15] About 24% are projected to be lost by 2050, potentially rising to ∼76% by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.[15] (Over 60% of meteorite finds on Earth originate from Antarctica.)[15]
11 April: a study published in Science noted that the effect of soil inorganic carbon (SIC) on future atmospheric carbon concentrations has been inadequately studied, and projected that soil acidification associated with nitrogen additions to terrestrial ecosystems will cause release into the atmosphere up to 23 billion tonnes of carbon over the next 30 years.[16]
11 May (reported): Venezuela became the first country in modern times to lose all of its glaciers, with the Humboldt Glacier having shrunk to the point that climate scientists reclassified it as an ice field.[17]
20 May: a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concluded that rushing of seawater beneath grounded ice over considerable distances makes Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, more vulnerable to melting than previously anticipated, which in turn increases projections of ice mass loss.[18]
Actions and goal statements
Science and technology
2 January: the first commercial-scale offshore wind farm in the U.S. began operation 15 miles (24 km) off the coast of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, initially providing 5 MW from one wind turbine, but planning an eventual 62 turbines capable of powering 400,000 homes and businesses.[19]
18 January: the first successful test of a solar farm in space—collecting solar power from a photovoltaic cell and beaming energy down to Earth—constituted an early feasibility demonstration.[20]
February: an underwater generator operating on the principle of a kite travels a figure-8 pattern, moving faster than the current that drives it.[21] A 1.2 MW utility-scale generator began providing power to the grid of the Faroe Islands.[21]
March (reported invention): a wind-powered electrodynamic screen (EDS) generates strong electric fields that repel dust and contaminants from the surface of solar panels, thereby increasing the panels' efficiency while avoiding manual cleaning.[22]
April (reported): a new glass-ceramic material placed atop solar panels transforms ultraviolet light into visible light, effectively increasing the amount of usable light from the sun (the material passes visible light, as normal).[23]
April (reported): "rock flour"—rock that has been finely ground by glaciers and having large surface area per unit volume—has been found to enhance "chemical weathering" that removes carbon from air when spread across ground surfaces.[24] A similar sequestration process, using concrete particles 1millimeter in diameter, has also been tested.[25]
2 April: the first outdoor test in the U.S. of marine cloud brightening technology—designed to brighten clouds and reflect sunlight back into space—tested whether a machine could consistently spray the right size salt aerosols through the open air outside of a lab.[26] Local authorities halted the project the following month, citing concerns for public health and safety.[27]
10 May: the world's largest direct air capture plant, with a capacity of 36 ktCO2 per year, opens in Iceland.[29]
Political, economic, legal, and cultural actions
8 February: climate scientist Michael E. Mann won a $1 million judgment for punitive damages in a defamation lawsuit filed in 2012 against bloggers who attacked his hockey stick graph of global temperature rise, one of the bloggers having called Mann's work "fraudulent".[30]
March (reported): website Realtor.com added property-specific tools describing individual properties' vulnerability to heat, wind, and air quality, publishing current risks and projected risks 30 years into the future.[31]
Denial, Disinformation, and Doublespeak
● Documents demonstrate for the first time that fossil fuel companies internally do not dispute that they have understood since at least the 1960s that burning fossil fuels causes climate change and then worked for decades to undermine public understanding of this fact and to deny the underlying science.
● Big Oil’s deception campaign evolved from explicit denial of the basic science underlying climate change to deception, disinformation, and doublespeak.
—House Committee on Oversight and Accountability,
and U.S. Senate Committee on the Budget[32] 30 April 2024
22 March: the Nauta provincial court (Peru) ruled that the Marañón River has "intrinsic" value and possesses the rights to exist, flow, and be free from pollution.[33] The ruling was the first time Peru has legally recognized "rights of nature".[33]
29 March: the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, based in Costa Rica, ruled that the government of Peru is liable for physical and mental harm to people caused by a metallurgical facility’s pollution, and ordered the government to provide free medical care and monetary compensation to victims.[34]
9 April: in its first ruling on climate litigation, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Switzerland's failure to adequately tackle the climate crisis breached 2000 women plaintiffs' human rights to effective protection from the "the serious adverse effects of climate change on lives, health, well-being and quality of life".[35]
30 April: G7 ministers agreed to end unabated coal power plants by 2035, giving leeway for countries whose power plants are fitted with carbon capture technology.[36]
1 May: a three-judge panel of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Juliana v. United States should be dismissed.[37] The lawsuit was filed in 2015 by 21 young people claiming the U.S. government's energy policies violate their rights to be protected from climate change, more specifically, violating their rights to due process and equal protection under the U.S. Constitution.[37]
January (reported in TIME): The IEA has outlined that by 2030, we must triple our reliance on renewable sources of energy, double energy efficiency, significantly cut methane emissions, and increase electrification with existing technologies.[39]
Adaptation goal statements
4 February (reported): to reduce sea level rise caused by melting of Antarctica's Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers, scientists proposed a "Seabed Curtain" 100 kilometres (62 mi) long, moored to and rising from the bed of the Amundsen Sea, designed to reduce the amount of warm ocean water that would melt the base of those glaciers.[40]
Consensus
9 February: a global survey of almost 130,000 individuals whose results were published in Nature Climate Change found that 69% of respondents were willing to contribute 1% of their income to support action against climate change, 86% endorsed pro-climate social norms, and 89% demanded greater political action.[41] However, the world was said to be in a state of pluralistic ignorance, in which people underestimate the willingness of others to act.[41]
Projections
In a 2024 survey, 76.3% of responding IPCC lead authors and review editors projected at least 2.5°C of global warming by 2100; only 5.79% forecast warming of 1.5°C or less.[42]
January: the World Economic Forum projected that, by 2050, directly and indirectly, climate change will cause 14.5 million deaths and $12.5 trillion in economic losses.[43]
13 February: a study published in Current Issues in Tourism projected that for the 2050s, U.S. ski seasons will shorten between 14–33 days (low emissions scenario) and 27 to 62 days (high emissions scenario), with direct economic losses of $657 million to 1.352 billion annually.[5]
5 March: a study published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment projected that the first single occurrence (September; not year-round) of an ice-free Arctic "could occur in 2020–2030s under all emission trajectories and are likely to occur by 2050".[44]Daily ice-free conditions are expected approximately 4 years earlier on average.[44]
13 March: a study published in PLOS One projected that 13% of all current ski areas are projected to completely lose natural annual snow cover by 2100.[45]
17 April: a study published in Nature forecast that by 2050, climate change will cause average incomes to fall by almost 20% and will cause $38 trillion of destruction each year.[46]
8 May (reported): in a poll by The Guardian of contactable lead authors or review editors of IPCC reports since 2018, 76.3% of respondents projected at least 2.5°C of global warming; only 5.79% forecast warming of 1.5°C or less.[42]
March: a study published in The LancetPlanetary Health projected both "substantial losses" of habitat for venomous snakes by 2070, and migration of venomous species across international borders presenting new dangers to public health.[47]
14 May: a study published in Nature Communications forecast that by 2050, 177–246 million older adults will be exposed to dangerous acute heat, the most severe effects forecast in Asia and Africa which also have the lowest adaptive capacity.[48]
