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All 57 Scottish seats in the House of Commons | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025. The election includes Scotland with all 57 Scottish seats to be contested.
The next general election must take place by January 2025 as per provisions of the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act ensures that Parliament is automatically dissolved on 17 December 2024, if it has not already been dissolved at the request of the Prime Minister. Polling occurs no more than 25 working days after Parliament has been dissolved, allowing for public holidays.[2] The current prime minster Rishi Suank has stated he will hold the election in late 2024.[3]
Main article: Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election |
All polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure and sample size rules.
The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.
Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
SNP | Con | Lab | Lib Dems | Green | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10–11 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | 34% | 18% | 34% | 6% | 4% | 5% | Tie | |
14–24 Feb 2024 | Survation | Quantum Comms | 1,005 | 38% | 15% | 33% | 8% | 7% | 5 | |
3–4 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 33% | 18% | 34% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 1 |
25-31 Jan 2024 | Ipsos | 1,005 | 39% | 14% | 32% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 7 | |
23–25 Jan 2024 | Survation | True North | 1,029 | 36% | 16% | 34% | 8% | 7% | 2 | |
22–25 Jan 2024 | Norstat | The Sunday Times | 1,007 | 33% | 16% | 36% | 7% | - | 8% | 3 |
9–11 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,040 | 35% | 17% | 35% | 9% | 2% | 3% | Tie |
26–27 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,054 | 34% | 17% | 36% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 2 |
20–26 Nov 2023 | Ipsos | N/A | 990 | 40% | 15% | 30% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 10 |
29–30 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,092 | 32% | 23% | 32% | 8% | 2% | 3% | Tie |
20–25 Oct 2023 | YouGov | Scottish Elections Study | 1,200 | 32% | 16% | 38% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 6 |
6–11 Oct 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,018 | 35% | 19% | 35% | 6% | – | 4% | Tie |
2–6 Oct 2023 | YouGov | Fabians | 1,028 | 33% | 20% | 32% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 1 |
5 Oct 2023 | Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election[4] | |||||||||
4–5 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,095 | 34% | 21% | 32% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 2 |
2–5 Oct 2023 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 37% | 18% | 33% | 8% | 0% | 3% | 4 | |
4–14 Sep 2023 | Opinium | N/A | 37% | 18% | 28% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 10 | |
8–13 Sep 2023 | YouGov | The Times | 1,103 | 39% | 20% | 28% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 9 |
2–4 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 35% | 15% | 35% | 8% | 4% | 4% | Tie |
15–18 Aug 2023 | Survation | N/A | 37% | 17% | 35% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 2 | |
5–6 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 37% | 17% | 34% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 3 |
3–8 Aug 2023 | YouGov | The Times | 1,086 | 36% | 15% | 32% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 4 |
1–2 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,030 | 35% | 21% | 32% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 3 |
23–28 Jun 2023 | Survation | N/A | 37% | 17% | 34% | 9% | 0% | 3% | 3 | |
12–15 Jun 2023 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,007 | 34% | 18% | 34% | 7% | 0% | 3% | Tie |
9–14 Jun 2023 | [ / Savanta] | N/A | 38% | 17% | 34% | 7% | 0% | 3% | 4 | |
3–5 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,466 | 37% | 20% | 28% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 9 |
15–21 May 2023 | Ipsos MORI | STV News | 1,090 | 41% | 16% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 12 |
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 | Survation | True North | 1,009 | 38% | 18% | 31% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 7 |
30 Apr – 1 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,295 | 35% | 18% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 3 |
17–20 Apr 2023 | YouGov | The Times | 1,032 | 37% | 17% | 28% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 9 |
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 | Survation | N/A | 1,001 | 40% | 17% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 8 |
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 36% | 19% | 31% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 5 |
28–31 Mar 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,009 | 39% | 19% | 33% | 6% | – | 4% | 6 |
28–30 Mar 2023 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,089 | 39% | 19% | 31% | 5% | – | 6% | 8 |
27 Mar 2023 | Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National Party | |||||||||
9–13 Mar 2023 | YouGov | Sky News | 1,002 | 39% | 16% | 29% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 10 |
8–10 Mar 2023 | Survation | Diffley Partnership | 1,037 | 40% | 18% | 32% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 8 |
7–10 Mar 2023 | Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1,013 | 40% | 16% | 33% | 6% | – | 5% | 7 |
2–5 Mar 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 39% | 22% | 29% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 10 |
17–20 Feb 2023 | YouGov | The Times | 1,017 | 38% | 19% | 29% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 9 |
15–17 Feb 2023 | Survation | N/A | 1,034 | 43% | 17% | 30% | 6% | TBA | 3% | 13 |
15–17 Feb 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,004 | 42% | 17% | 32% | 6% | TBA | 3% | 10 |
10–15 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Scottish Election Study | 1,239 | 38% | 16% | 35% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 3 |
1–7 Feb 2023 | Survation | N/A | TBA | 42% | 18% | 29% | 6% | TBA | TBA | 13 |
23–26 Jan 2023 | YouGov | The Sunday Times | 1,088 | 42% | 15% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 13 |
10–12 Jan 2023 | Survation | True North | 1,002 | 43% | 18% | 29% | 7% | – | 2% | 14 |
22 Dec – 1 Jan 2023 | Survation | Scotland in Union | 1,025 | 44% | 16% | 31% | 6% | – | 1% | 13 |
16–21 Dec 2022 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,048 | 43% | 19% | 30% | 6% | – | 2% | 13 |
6–9 Dec 2022 | YouGov | The Times | 1,090 | 43% | 14% | 29% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 14 |
28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022 | Ipsos MORI | STV News | 1,045 | 51% | 13% | 25% | 6% | 3% | 26 | |
26–27 Nov 2022 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 41% | 16% | 31% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 10 |
7–11 Oct 2022 | Panelbase | Alba Party | 1,000+ | 42% | 16% | 30% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 12 |
5–7 Oct 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,017 | 45% | 15% | 30% | 5% | – | 4% | 15 |
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 | YouGov | The Times | 1,067 | 45% | 12% | 31% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 14 |
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 | ComRes | The Scotsman | 1,029 | 46% | 15% | 30% | 8% | – | 1% | 16 |
28–29 Sep 2022 | Survation | Scotland in Union | 1,011 | 44% | 15% | 31% | 6% | – | 4% | 13 |
17–19 Aug 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,133 | 44% | 20% | 23% | 8% | – | 5% | 21 |
29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,010 | 47% | 19% | 23% | 8% | – | 3% | 24 |
23–28 Jun 2022 | Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 1,029 | 46% | 18% | 25% | 8% | – | 3% | 21 |
23–29 May 2022 | Ipsos | STV News | 1,000 | 44% | 19% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 21 |
18–23 May 2022 | YouGov | The Times | 1,115 | 46% | 19% | 22% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 24 |
5 May 2022 | Local elections held in Scotland | |||||||||
26–29 Apr 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,009 | 42% | 21% | 24% | 7% | – | 5% | 18 |
25–31 Mar 2022 | BMG Research | The Herald | 1,012 | 42% | 19% | 26% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 16 |
24–28 Mar 2022 | Survation | Ballot Box Scotland | 1,002 | 45% | 19% | 27% | 6% | – | 2% | 18 |
1–4 Feb 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,128 | 44% | 20% | 24% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 20 |
15–22 Dec 2021 | Opinium | Daily Record | 1,328 | 48% | 17% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 26 |
18–22 Nov 2021 | YouGov | The Times | 1,060 | 48% | 20% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 28 |
9–12 Nov 2021 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,000~ | 48% | 21% | 20% | 7% | – | 4% | 27 |
20–26 Oct 2021 | Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1,001 | 48% | 21% | 21% | 7% | – | 4% | 27 |
6–10 Sep 2021 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 2,003 | 47% | 23% | 19% | 7% | – | 4% | 24 |
2–8 Sep 2021 | Opinium | Sky News | 1,014 | 51% | 21% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 30 |
20 Aug 2021 | Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats[5] | |||||||||
16–24 Jun 2021 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,287 | 47% | 25% | 18% | 6% | – | 4% | 22 |
13 May 2021 | Airdrie and Shotts by-election[4] | |||||||||
6 May 2021 | Election to the Scottish Parliament[6] | |||||||||
2–4 May 2021 | YouGov | The Times | 1,144 | 48% | 22% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 26 |
30 Apr – 4 May 2021 | Survation | DC Thomson | 1,008 | 48% | 22% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 26 |
28 Apr – 03 May 2021 | Opinium | Sky News | 1,015 | 47% | 25% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 22 |
27–30 Apr 2021 | BMG Research | The Herald | 1,023 | 48% | 20% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 28 |
23–26 Apr 2021 | Survation | Good Morning Britain | 1,008 | 46% | 22% | 22% | 8% | – | 2% | 24 |
21–26 Apr 2021 | Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1,075 | 45% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 23 |
20–22 Apr 2021 | Survation | DC Thomson | 1,037 | 47% | 21% | 22% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 25 |
16–20 Apr 2021 | YouGov | The Times | 1,204 | 48% | 24% | 19% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 24 |
1–6 Apr 2021 | Opinium | Sky News | 1,023 | 50% | 24% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 26 |
29–30 Mar 2021 | Survation | The Courier | 1,021 | 49% | 21% | 21% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 28 |
19–22 Mar 2021 | YouGov | The Times | TBA | 49% | 24% | 17% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 25 |
16–19 Mar 2021 | BMG Research | The Herald | 1,021 | 47% | 21% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 26 |
11–18 Mar 2021 | Survation | The Courier | 1,452 | 49% | 21% | 21% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 28 |
11–16 Mar 2021 | Opinium | Sky News | 1,096 | 50% | 23% | 19% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 27 |
4–8 Mar 2021 | YouGov | The Times | 1,100 | 50% | 23% | 17% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 27 |
27 Feb 2021 | Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour[7] | |||||||||
25–26 Feb 2021 | Survation | Daily Record | 1,011 | 48% | 23% | 21% | 6% | – | 2% | 25 |
11–13 Jan 2021 | Survation | Scot Goes Pop | 1,020 | 48% | 19% | 23% | 7% | – | 3% | 25 |
4–9 Dec 2020 | Survation | N/A | 1,009 | 51% | 20% | 21% | 6% | 3% | – | 30 |
5–11 Nov 2020 | Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1,020 | 50% | 21% | 20% | 5% | 2% | – | 29 |
6–10 Nov 2020 | YouGov | The Times | 1,089 | 53% | 19% | 17% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 34 |
28 Oct – 4 Nov 2020 | Survation | N/A | 1,059 | 52% | 18% | 20% | 8% | – | 2% | 32 |
17–21 Sep 2020 | JL Partners | Politico | 1,016 | 56% | 18% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 38 | |
2–7 Sep 2020 | Survation | N/A | 1,018 | 51% | 20% | 21% | 6% | – | 3% | 30 |
6–10 Aug 2020 | YouGov | The Times | 1,142 | 54% | 20% | 16% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 34 |
5 Aug 2020 | Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives[8] | |||||||||
30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,026 | 53% | 21% | 19% | 6% | – | 2% | 32 |
1–5 Jun 2020 | Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1,022 | 51% | 21% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 30 |
1–5 May 2020 | Panelbase | Wings Over Scotland | 1,086 | 50% | 26% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 24 |
24–27 Apr 2020 | YouGov | N/A | 1,095 | 51% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 26 |
24–26 Mar 2020 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,023 | 48% | 27% | 16% | 5% | 3% | – | 21 |
14 Feb 2020 | Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives[9] | |||||||||
12 Dec 2019 | 2019 general election | – | 45.0% | 25.1% | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 19.9 |
In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.[10][11] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020[12] and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.[4][13][14][15] They were required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023. The Scottish commission published its own report on 28 June.[16][17] As the reports were laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals must be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament.
Fifty-seven single member constituencies will be used in Scotland for the next election, a reduction of two since 2019. A number of constituencies were unchanged, including the two protected constituencies of Na h-Eileanan an Iar covering the Western Isles, and Orkney and Shetland, covering the Northern Isles.[18]
Below are listed all the constituencies from the previous election which require a swing of less than 5% from the 2019 result to change hands. Many of these seats will not exist in this form at the Next United Kingdom general election.
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required |
Conservatives' place 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gordon | SNP | 0.73% | 2nd | |
2 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | SNP | 2.50% | 2nd | |
3 | Ochil and South Perthshire | SNP | 3.89% | 2nd | |
4 | Argyll and Bute | SNP | 4.28% | 2nd | |
5 | Aberdeen South | SNP | 4.37% | 2nd | |
6 | Angus | SNP | 4.40% | 2nd | |
7 | East Lothian | SNP | 4.81% | 3rd | |
8 | Lanark and Hamilton East | SNP | 4.89% | 2nd | |
9 | East Renfrewshire | SNP | 4.90% | 2nd |
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required |
Labour's place 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | SNP | 1.32% | 2nd | |
2 | East Lothian | SNP | 3.32% | 2nd | |
3 | Glasgow North East | SNP | 3.76% | 2nd | |
4 | Rutherglen and Hamilton West | SNP | 4.86% | 2nd |
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing Required | Liberal Democrats' place 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | East Dunbartonshire | SNP | 0.14% | 2nd |
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required |
SNP's place 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Liberal Democrats | 0.32% | 2nd | |
2 | Moray | Conservative | 0.53% | 2nd | |
3 | West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | Conservative | 0.79% | 2nd | |
4 | North East Fife | Liberal Democrats | 1.43% | 2nd | |
5 | Dumfries and Galloway | Conservative | 1.75% | 2nd | |
6 | Edinburgh West | Liberal Democrats | 3.46% | 2nd | |
7 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Conservative | 3.85% | 2nd | |
8 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Conservative | 4.84% | 2nd | |
9 | Banff and Buchan | Conservative | 4.87% | 2nd |