Ohio was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 2.10% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered Ohio as a swing state. The state's economic situation gave hope for John Kerry. In the end, the state became the deciding factor of the entire election. Kerry conceded the state, and the entire election, the morning following election night, as Bush won the state and its 20 electoral votes. The close contest was the subject of the documentary film ...So Goes the Nation, the title of which is a reference to Ohio's 2004 status as a crucial swing state. If Kerry won the state, he would have won the presidency with 272 electoral votes despite losing the popular vote, and would have been the first Democrat to achieve this feat; this also meant that if Bush lost the state, he would have lost re-election, and have been a one-term president despite winning the popular vote, which would have made him the first Republican to achieve this feat. Furthermore, if Bush lost re-election, he would have followed his father, George H. W. Bush, in being a one-term president who lost re-election and repeated the United States presidential electoral history of the Adams political family.
As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time Ohio voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole, as well as the last time Hamilton County voted for a Republican presidential candidate. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Stark County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888.
Primaries
2004 Ohio Democratic presidential primary
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]
Source
Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Lean R
Associated Press
Toss-up
CNN
Lean D (flip)
Cook Political Report
Toss-up
Newsweek
Toss-up
New York Times
Toss-up
Rasmussen Reports
Toss-up
Research 2000
Toss-up
Washington Post
Toss-up
Washington Times
Toss-up
Zogby International
Toss-up
Washington Dispatch
Lean D (flip)
Polling
Pre-election polling showed a lot of volatility throughout the general election. In September, Bush was gaining momentum here, reaching over 50% in several polls and even reaching double digit margins in some. But in October, Kerry gained back momentum as he started winning many of the polls, leading with from 48% to as high as 50%. The last 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 49% to 48%.[2]
Fundraising
Bush raised $7,349,944.[3] Kerry raised $3,428,504.[4]
Advertising and visits
Both candidates campaigned heavily. Bush visited the state 18 times to Kerry's 23 times.[5] Almost every week, over $10 million was spent on television advertising.[6]
Analysis
CNN Exit polling showed that Bush barely won the state. Among male voters, he won with 52%. Among female voters, it was tied 50-50. Also, 53% of the voters approved of Bush's job as president.[7]
Bush dominated in the rural areas, while Kerry dominated and won most of the counties with large populations. Overall, Bush won most of the counties and congressional districts in the state. All the congressional districts Kerry won were in the northern section of the state.[8]
Results
2004 United States presidential election in Ohio[8]
Technically the voters of Ohio cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Ohio is allocated 20 electors because it has 18 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 20 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 20 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 20 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.
Spencer R. Raleigh
Joyce M. Houck
Betty Jo Sherman
Gary C. Suhadolnik
Randy Law
Leslie J. Spaeth
David Whipple Johnson
Robert S. Frost
Alex R. Arshinkoff
Phil A. Bowman
Jon Allison
Katharina Hooper
Pernel Jones
Henry M. Butch O'Neill
William O. Dewitt
Karyle Mumper
Owen V. Hall
Merom Brachman
Kirk Schuring
Billie Jean Fiore
Objection to certification of Ohio's electoral votes
On January 6, 2005, Senator Barbara Boxer joined RepresentativeStephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio in filing a Congressional objection to the certification of Ohio's Electoral College votes due to alleged irregularities including disqualification of provisional ballots, alleged misallocation of voting machines, and disproportionately long waits in predominantly African-American communities.[10][11] Ohio's polling locations and equipment are determined by two Democrats and two Republicans serving on the county's Board of Elections, which ensures that any decision made about polling resources is bipartisan.[12] The Senate voted the objection down 74–1; the House voted the objection down 267–31.[10] At the time, it was only the second Congressional objection to an entire State's electoral delegation in U.S. history; the first instance was in 1877, when all the electors from three southern states were challenged, and one from Oregon.[10][13] The third instance was in 2021, when Republicans objected to the certification of the electors from Arizona and Pennsylvania. An objection to a single faithless elector was also filed in 1969.[10]
