2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma

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George-W-Bush.jpeg
John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 959,792 503,966
Percentage 65.57% 34.43%

Oklahoma Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
County Results
Bush
  50-60%
  60-70%
  70-80%
  80-90%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Oklahoma was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 31.14% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered a safe red state. Bush won this state, every single county, and congressional district. Giving Bush 65.57% of the vote, it was the most Republican state in the south and Bush's fifth best performance in the country after Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Nebraska.[1] In addition, he performed nine points better here than he had four years earlier, indicating an increasing Republican trend.

Oklahoma has been a Republican-leaning state since 1952 and a Republican stronghold since 1980. This was the first of five consecutive elections to date in which every county in the state was won by the Republican candidate.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, each with a double-digit margin and with at least 53% of the vote, except for the first poll. Many polls had Bush winning with a 30% margin or even higher. The final 3 poll average had Bush leading 63% to 32%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,194,549.[4] Kerry raised $357,038.[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[6][7]

Analysis

By 2000, Oklahoma had long been one of the more Republican-leaning states in the South, having been one of only two Southern states to have voted for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976, and having been one of a handful of Southern states never to vote for Bill Clinton. In 2000, George W. Bush, then the governor of the neighboring state of Texas, carried the Sooner State with a little over 60% of the vote, making it his sixth-best state nationally and his best state in the South that year. However, Al Gore did manage to carry a cluster of traditionally Democratic rural counties in the eastern part of the state.

In 2004, Bush improved his percentage in Oklahoma by a little over 5% and carried every county in the state, the first of five consecutive elections (as of 2020) in which the Republican has swept the state's counties. He performed strongly in both the state's rural areas, and in its two main population centers, getting 64% of the vote in both Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties. Only in six counties was Kerry so much as able to hold Bush to a single-digit margin: Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal, McIntosh, Muskogee, and Okmulgee. None of these cast over 30,000 votes. However, in McIntosh County, John Kerry held Bush to a margin of just 2%, which would be the closest any Democrat since Gore came to carrying any Oklahoma county until Joe Biden came within 1.5% of carrying Oklahoma County in 2020. In addition, McIntosh County voted marginally more Democratic than the nation at-large, the last time any county in the state has voted as such as of 2022.

The third-party vote, which had amounted to 1.26% of the total state vote in 2000, disappeared in 2004, as no independent obtained ballot access in the state in 2004. Oklahoma has the toughest laws regarding third-party ballot access,[8] and 2004 was the first of three elections in a row in which only the Democrat and the Republican appeared on the ballot (with write-in votes not allowed).

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Oklahoma[9]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush Dick Cheney 959,792 65.57% 7
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 503,966 34.43% 0
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 55.6%

Results breakdown

By county

County Bush# Bush% Kerry# Kerry%
Adair 4,970 66% 2,560 34%
Alfalfa 2,201 82% 470 18%
Atoka 3,140 62% 1,946 38%
Beaver 2,271 88% 297 12%
Beckham 5,454 74% 1,931 26%
Blaine 3,199 72% 1,222 28%
Bryan 8,614 60% 5,742 40%
Caddo 6,491 62% 3,916 38%
Canadian 33,297 77% 9,712 23%
Carter 12,173 65% 6,464 35%
Cherokee 9,563 53% 8,622 47%
Choctaw 3,168 55% 2,639 45%
Cimarron 1,242 87% 184 13%
Cleveland 65,666 66% 33,984 34%
Coal 1,396 54% 1,203 46%
Comanche 21,163 64% 12,020 36%
Cotton 1,742 66% 898 34%
Craig 3,894 61% 2,504 39%
Creek 18,845 66% 9,927 35%
Custer 7,839 74% 2,801 26%
Delaware 10,016 64% 5,591 36%
Dewey 1,843 82% 408 18%
Ellis 1,685 81% 395 19%
Garfield 17,685 76% 5,586 24%
Garvin 7,610 67% 3,706 33%
Grady 14,129 70% 5,969 30%
Grant 1,950 77% 571 23%
Greer 1,529 68% 719 32%
Harmon 838 70% 354 30%
Harper 1,397 84% 268 16%
Haskell 2,946 55% 2,378 45%
Hughes 3,066 57% 2,286 43%
Jackson 7,024 76% 2,232 24%
Jefferson 1,546 59% 1,057 41%
Johnston 2,634 61% 1,711 39%
Kay 14,177 70% 5,956 30%
Kingfisher 5,629 85% 1,022 15%
Kiowa 2,608 65% 1,413 35%
Latimer 2,535 57% 1,945 43%
LeFlore 10,681 61% 6,740 39%
Lincoln 10,149 72% 4,041 28%
Logan 11,467 70% 4,869 30%
Love 2,295 60% 1,538 40%
Major 3,120 85% 537 15%
Marshall 3,363 62% 2,088 38%
Mayes 9,946 59% 6,933 41%
McClain 10,038 73% 3,742 27%
McCurtain 7,472 67% 3,684 33%
McIntosh 4,692 51% 4,488 49%
Murray 3,665 61% 2,310 39%
Muskogee 15,121 55% 12,585 45%
Noble 3,993 75% 1,335 25%
Nowata 2,805 63% 1,659 37%
Okfuskee 2,542 59% 1,743 41%
Oklahoma 174,707 64% 97,283 36%
Okmulgee 8,363 53% 7,367 47%
Osage 11,467 59% 8,068 41%
Ottawa 7,439 59% 5,084 41%
Pawnee 4,412 63% 2,563 37%
Payne 19,560 66% 10,101 34%
Pittsburg 11,134 60% 7,452 40%
Pontotoc 9,642 65% 5,165 35%
Pottawatomie 17,212 67% 8,636 33%
Pushmataha 2,862 60% 1,934 40%
Roger 1,388 78% 382 22%
Rogers 24,981 68% 11,917 32%
Seminole 5,623 61% 3,648 39%
Sequoyah 8,865 60% 5,910 40%
Stephens 13,645 71% 5,514 29%
Texas 5,449 84% 1,016 16%
Tillman 2,273 66% 1,175 34%
Tulsa 163,434 64% 90,204 36%
Wagoner 19,081 68% 9,157 32%
Washington 16,551 71% 6,862 29%
Washita 3,705 73% 1,340 27%
Woods 3,165 77% 930 23%
Woodward 6,188 81% 1,457 19%

By congressional district

Bush won all five congressional districts.[10]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 65% 35% John Sullivan
2nd 59% 41% Brad Carson
Dan Boren
3rd 72% 28% Frank Lucas
4th 67% 33% Tom Cole
5th 64% 36% Ernest Istook

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Oklahoma cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oklahoma is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. George Wiland
  2. Paul Hollrah
  3. Colby Schwartz
  4. Diana Gunther
  5. Ken Bartlett
  6. Donald Burdick
  7. Bob Hudspeth

The slate for the Democrats, which was not elected, consisted of George Krumme, Edwynne Krumme, Maxine Horner, Jim Hamilton, Bernice Mitchell, Betty McElderry, Bob Lemon[11]

See also

References

  1. ^ "2004 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved 2018-03-05.
  2. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[permanent dead link]
  3. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=40[bare URL]
  4. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  5. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  6. ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html
  7. ^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  8. ^ "Third-party Oklahoma voters seek easier ballot access". Oklahoman.com. 2012-10-09. Retrieved 2021-11-09.
  9. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  10. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  11. ^ https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/08electr.pdf[bare URL PDF]