2007 FT3
Discovery[1]
Discovered byMt. Lemmon Survey
Discovery date20 March 2007
Designations
2007 FT3
Orbital characteristics[4]
Epoch 21 March 2007 (JD 2454180.5)
Uncertainty parameter 9
Observation arc1.2 days[5]
Aphelion1.48±0.02 AU (Q)
Perihelion0.782±0.007 AU (q)
1.13±0.02 AU (a)
Eccentricity0.308±0.006 (e)
1.2±0.03 years
28.4 km/s[a]
298°±3° (M)
Inclination26.9°±0.43° (i)
9.9°±0.2° (Ω)
277°±2° (ω)
Earth MOID0.01 AU (1.5 million km) ?
Jupiter MOID3.83 AU (573 million km) ?
Physical characteristics
Dimensions
  • ~340 m (1,100 ft)?[5]
  • 270–590 meters
20?[4]

2007 FT3 (also written 2007 FT3) is a lost asteroid[2] with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that cannot be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.19 ± 0.01 AU (28.4 ± 1.5 million km) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. 2007 FT3 is the fourth largest asteroid with better than a 1-in-2 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA, 1979 XB, and 101955 Bennu. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of -2.93, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place 2007 FT3 fifth on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.[6] The asteroid is not expected to be near the Earth in October 2024.

2013 virtual impactor

The 2 October 2013 virtual impactor did not occur.[5] The uncertainty region of ± 330 million kilometers wrapped around a large portion of the asteroid's orbit so that the asteroid could have been numerous different distances from the Earth.

2019 virtual impactor

The 3 October 2019 virtual impactor did not occur. The poorly constrained nominal orbit suggested that the closest approach the asteroid would make to Earth in 2019 was in late March at a distance of 0.14 AU (21,000,000 km; 13,000,000 mi).[7] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid was hundreds of millions of kilometers long.

There was an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 3 October 2019.[5] The nominal JPL Horizons 3 October 2019 Earth distance was 0.93 AU (139,000,000 km; 86,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 620 million km.[8] NEODyS listed the nominal 3 October 2019 Earth distance as 0.95 AU (142,000,000 km; 88,000,000 mi).[7]

2024 virtual impactor

Since the asteroid has a short observation arc and the uncertainty in the orbit of the asteroid intersects Earth's orbit, simulations can not rule out the asteroid and Earth being at the same point in space on 3 October 2024. The nominal orbit suggests that closest approach the asteroid will make to Earth in 2024 will not be until the end of December when it may be ~1 AU from Earth (the same distance the Sun is from Earth).[9] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid is hundreds of millions of kilometers long.[10]

With a short 1.2 day observation arc, the Sentry Risk Table shows an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 2 October 2024,[5] which is 1,900 times lower than the background threat.[b] The nominal JPL Horizons 2 October 2024 Earth distance is 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 500 million km.[10] NEODyS lists the nominal 2 October 2024 Earth distance as 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi).[9]

Virtual impactors (past and future)[5]
Date Impact
probability
(1 in) 		JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		NEODyS
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		MPC[11]
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		Find_Orb
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		uncertainty[8]
region
2013-10-02 1.9 billion 0.94 AU (141 million km) 1.0 AU (150 million km) 1.1 AU (160 million km) 1.2 AU (180 million km) ± 330 million km
2019-10-03 11 million 0.93 AU (139 million km) 0.95 AU (142 million km)[7] 1.3 AU (190 million km) 1.4 AU (210 million km) ± 620 million km
2024-10-03 11 million 1.7 AU (250 million km)[10] 1.7 AU (250 million km)[9] 2.0 AU (300 million km)[11] 2.0 AU (300 million km)[12] ± 500 million km[10]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ v = 42.1219 √1/r − 0.5/a, where r is the distance from the Sun, and a is the major semi-axis. Average velocity is at r=a=1.1 AU.
  2. ^ Palermo Scale for 2024 is −3.27 and 10^3.27 = 1862.

References

  1. ^ "MPEC 2007-F60: 2007 FT3". IAU Minor Planet Center. 21 March 2007. Retrieved 15 August 2019. (K07F03T)
  2. ^ a b "NEODyS-2 Risk List". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 20 November 2018. Retrieved 8 March 2021.
  3. ^ "2007 FT3". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 11 January 2020.
  4. ^ a b c "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2007 FT3)" (last observation: 2007-03-21; arc: 1 day). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 15 August 2019. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2007 FT3". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 30 December 2018. Retrieved 15 August 2019. (Wayback Machine 2012)
  6. ^ "Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring". NASA/JPL Center for NEO Studies. Retrieved 12 June 2022. (Use Unconstrained Settings to reveal impact probability below 1e-7)
  7. ^ a b c "2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2019". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 15 August 2019. Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  8. ^ a b Go to JPL Horizons. Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas".
    RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 6 April 2017 generates RNG_3sigma = 620915473 for 3 October 2019.)
  9. ^ a b c "2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2024". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 4 April 2021. Retrieved 4 April 2021.
  10. ^ a b c d "Horizons Batch for 2024-10-02 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. Retrieved 10 April 2021. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#7/Soln.date: 2017-Apr-06 generates RNG_3sigma = 487811582 for 2024-Oct-02.)
  11. ^ a b "MPC Ephemeris Service". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 8 April 2021.
  12. ^ "Find_Orb for 2024-10-02". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 20 April 2021. Retrieved 20 April 2021.

External links

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