2007 VK184 is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, and estimated to be approximately 130 meters (430 ft) in diameter.[4] It was listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a Torino Scale rating of 1 for a potential impactor in June 2048.[4] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 28 March 2014.[5]
2023
The asteroid will come to opposition on 24 April 2023 when it will have a solar elongation of 177 degrees and an apparent magnitude of 22.[6] Then on 15 July 2023 the asteroid will harmlessly pass 0.2275 AU (34.03 million km) from Earth.[1]
Description
2007 VK184 was discovered on 12 November 2007 by the Catalina Sky Survey.[2] It was recovered on 26 March 2014 by Mauna Kea,[7][3] and removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 28 March 2014.[5] By 4 January 2008, with an observation arc of 52 days, there was a 1 in 2700 chance of an impact with Earth on 3 June 2048.[8] The Sentry Risk Table, using an observation arc of 60 days, showed the asteroid had a 1 in 1820 chance (0.055%) of impacting Earth on 3 June 2048.[4] Since the March 2014 recovery, it is known that the asteroid will pass 0.013 AU (1,900,000 km; 1,200,000 mi) from Earth on 2 June 2048.[1]
2014 passage
Before the 2014 close approach, the asteroid had a modest observation arc of 60 days,[4] and the imprecise trajectory of this asteroid was complicated by close approaches to Earth, Venus and Mars.[1] On 23 May 2014, the asteroid passed 0.17 AU (25,000,000 km; 16,000,000 mi) from Earth[1] and reached an apparent magnitude of ~20.8.[9] As expected the close approach allowed astronomers to recover the asteroid on 26 March 2014 and refine the odds of a future collision.[3] As the asteroid gets closer to Earth, the positional uncertainty becomes larger.[10] By recovering the asteroid well before closest approach you can avoid searching a larger region of the sky.[10] Most asteroids rated 1 on the Torino Scale are later downgraded to 0 after more observations come in.
Risk assessments were calculated based on a diameter of 130 meters.[4] It was estimated that, if it were ever to impact Earth, it would enter the atmosphere at a speed of 19.2 km/s and would have a kinetic energy equivalent to 150 megatons of TNT.[4] Assuming the target surface is sedimentary rock, the asteroid would impact the ground with the equivalent of 40 megatons of TNT and create a 2.1 kilometers (1.3 mi) impact crater.[11] Asteroids of approximately 130 meters in diameter are expected to impact Earth once every 11000 years or so.[11]
2048
On 26–27 March 2014, additional observations were made which ruled out the chance of an impact in 2048.[10] On 2 June 2048 the asteroid will pass 5 lunar distances from Earth[1] with a 3-sigma uncertainty region of ±20000 km.[12]
2118
By the Earth approach of June 2118 the known approaches become more divergent.
2118 Earth approach
| Date
|
Minimum
possible
approach
|
Maximum
possible
approach
|
| 2118-Jun-06 ± 2 days |
0.00089 AU (133 thousand km)[1][13] |
0.041 AU (6.1 million km)[1]
|
