 | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 67.0% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
   Warner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gilmore: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| Elections in Virginia |
|---|
 |
The 2008 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican Senator John Warner decided to retire instead of seeking a sixth term. Former Governor Mark Warner (unrelated) won the open seat by more than 31 percentage points. Warner became the first Democrat to win this seat since 1966. This was also the first time since 1964 that the state voted simultaneously for a Democratic presidential candidate and a Democratic Senate candidate, having voted for Barack Obama in the presidential election, albeit by a far lesser margin. This was Virginia's first open-seat election since 1988. Mark Warner's inauguration marked the first time since Harry Flood Byrd Jr. left the Democratic Party to become an independent in 1970 where Democrats held both of Virginia's Senate seats.
Warner's large margin of victory was reflected throughout the state — Gilmore won only six counties and independent cities (Augusta, Colonial Heights, Hanover, Poquoson, Powhatan and Rockingham) and his margin didn't exceed more than 2,000 votes in any of them. As of 2023, this is the last time Amelia County and Bland County voted Democratic. This is the last time that the winner of the United States Senate election in Virginia won a majority of Virginia's counties and independent cities.
John Warner, a former United States Under Secretary of the Navy, had served Virginia in the Senate since 1979, and had been cagey about whether he would be running for re-election. He would have been favored for a sixth term had he decided to run again, even with recent Democratic gains in the state. In early 2007, it was speculated that Warner, who turned 80 in February of that year, would retire. When Warner reported on April 12, 2007 that he had raised only $500 in campaign contributions during the first quarter, speculation increased that he may not seek a sixth term.[2]
On August 31, 2007, Warner formally announced that he would not be seeking re-election.[3] The race was expected to be competitive, given the Democrats' two successive gubernatorial victories (2001, 2005) and the unseating of Republican senator George Allen by Jim Webb in 2006.[4]
The Wall Street Journal reported a story of National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Senator John Ensign outlining the 10 most competitive seats of the 2008 Senate election. When asked about the two GOP seats likely to switch parties, Virginia and New Mexico, on whether the NRSC was mulling walking away to work on other seats that could be won, Ensign said, "You don't waste money on races that don't need it or you can't win." This suggested that the NRSC may have started cutting money off.[5]
On September 16, 2007, Republican Rep. Tom Davis of the 11th District unofficially announced that he would seek election to the seat.[6] The Washington Times reported that John Warner delayed his retirement announcement specifically to help Davis.[7]
On October 1, 2007, the editors of the National Review encouraged Virginia voters to draft General Peter Pace, the retiring Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to run in 2008 for the Senate seat to be vacated by retiring Senator John Warner. The magazine cited Pace's conservative Catholic beliefs in making its suggestion.[8]
On October 13, the Republican Party of Virginia's State Central Committee voted 47-37 to hold a statewide convention rather than a primary. Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore argued strongly for a convention, claiming it would save the candidates money. It reportedly costs $4 million to compete in a primary, while it costs only $1 million for a convention. Davis argued that a primary would expose the candidates to the kind of environment they would face in November. A primary was thought to favor Davis due to his popularity in voter-rich Northern Virginia. In contrast, a convention was thought to favor Gilmore because most of the delegates would come from the party's activist base, which is tilted heavily to the right. With the decision, Gilmore said he was seriously considering entering the race.[9]
Davis dropped out of the race on October 25, 2007, citing the potential difficulties of defeating Gilmore in the conservative-dominated GOP convention and in taking on Warner, who is very popular in Davis' own Northern Virginia base.[10] Gilmore confirmed his candidacy on November 19, 2007.[11]
On January 7, 2008, Delegate Bob Marshall (R-Prince William County), a sixteen-year state legislator from Northern Virginia known for his social conservative values, announced he would challenge Gilmore for the Republican nomination May 31, 2008.[12] The convention was held on May 31, 2008, where Gilmore won the nomination with 50.3% of the vote, just 66 votes more than Marshall.[13]
Republican Convention Vote[14]
| Candidate | 1st District | 2nd District | 3rd District | 4th District | 5th District | 6th District | 7th District | 8th District | 9th District | 10th District | 11th District | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Gilmore | 491 | 613 | 121 | 319 | 667 | 531 | 1036 | 156 | 552 | 160 | 557 | 5223 |
| Bob Marshall | 643 | 345 | 75 | 383 | 420 | 507 | 582 | 145 | 335 | 585 | 1137 | 5157 |
| Total | 1134 | 958 | 196 | 702 | 1087 | 938 | 1618 | 301 | 887 | 745 | 1714 | 10380 |
On September 12, 2007, former Governor Mark Warner (no relation to John Warner) announced his candidacy.[4][15] Mark Warner had challenged John Warner for his Senate seat in 1996, but was narrowly defeated. Mark Warner later won election in 2001 as Governor of Virginia, and left office with a high level of popularity in 2006. He was confirmed as the party nominee at the state convention on June 10, 2008, as he went unopposed.
On March 29, 2008, the Libertarian Party of Virginia state convention nominated Bill Redpath as its Senate candidate.[16] Redpath, who was serving as national party chair at the time, cited the importance of running a Libertarian candidate for federal office this election year, considering the fact that the Independent Greens have been fielding candidates so actively in recent years. Glenda Gail Parker from Alexandria, a retired U.S. Air Force officer, ran again for the Independent Greens as she did in the 2006 Senate election.[17]
After the conclusions of the state conventions, Democrat Mark Warner had emerged as the front-runner for the Class 2 Senate seat from Virginia. Some early polling showed Mark Warner leading Jim Gilmore by as much as 2-1.
Pundits and analysists believed Virginia to be the single strongest pickup opportunity for the Democrats due to Warner's consistent lead in the polls.
Jim Gilmore responded aggressively, mostly with ads on the Internet; his campaign had very little money. Gilmore attacked Warner for raising taxes during his term as governor, when he had pledged not to do so,[18] flip-flopping[19] among many other topics.
On October 6, 2008, Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore debated various issues, including the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, the Iraq War and Judicial nominees. The Richmond Times Dispatch sponsored the debate held at the Taubman Museum of Art, Roanoke, Virginia.[20]
Mark Warner argued he'd be part of a radical centrist coalition, no matter who won the presidency. He claimed the coalition would improve cooperation in the Congress and its subsequent public perception. Warner spoke of alternative energy, and Gilmore argued for offshore drilling.[21] The issue of the 2004 tax increase under then-Governor Mark Warner was raised at the first debate of the campaign between Gilmore and Warner.[22]
The Washington Post reported on July 24, 2008, that Jim Gilmore "submitted false information on two financial disclosure forms that hid his ties to a government contractor embroiled in a legal dispute over allegations that two of its executives had conspired to defraud the federal government." The Gilmore campaign responded by saying, the controversy was due to a "clerical error."[23]
On election night, Warner was declared the winner based on exit polls alone, before the votes were counted.
Money played a large role in the campaign. By July, Mark Warner had raised $9 million, while Jim Gilmore had raised $1.2 million.[24] This does not include money from the DSCC or NRSC.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[31] | Likely D (flip) | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[32] | Safe D (flip) | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[33] | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[34] | Safe D (flip) | November 1, 2008 |
| Source | Date | Jim Gilmore (R) |
Mark Warner (D) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | September 5, 2007 | 34% | 54% |
| Survey USA | September 17, 2007 | 32% | 60% |
| Newport University | October 1, 2007 | 27% | 51% |
| Washington Post | October 12, 2007 | 31% | 61% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 24, 2007 | 37% | 53% |
| SurveyUSA | November 5, 2007 | 35% | 57% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 3, 2008 | 38% | 53% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 19, 2008 | 37% | 57% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 26, 2008 | 39% | 55% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 8, 2008 | 37% | 55% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 12, 2008 | 33% | 60% |
| PPP(D) | June 14, 2008 | 28% | 59% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 16, 2008 | 36% | 59% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 12, 2008 | 35% | 61% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 22, 2008 | 32% | 55% |
| Survey USA | September 7, 2008 | 35% | 56% |
| Survey USA | September 12, 2008 | 34% | 57% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 13, 2008 | 33% | 57% |
| Newport University Archived September 18, 2008, at the Wayback Machine | September 17, 2008 | 30% | 54% |
| Survey USA | September 21, 2008 | 34% | 57% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 25, 2008 | 34% | 60% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 16, 2008 | 36% | 61% |
| Survey USA | October 18, 2008 | 36% | 60% |
| Survey USA | October 26, 2008 | 32% | 63% |
| Survey USA | November 1, 2008 | 35% | 59% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 2, 2008 | 36% | 62% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Warner | 2,369,327 | 65.03% | +65.03% | |
| Republican | Jim Gilmore | 1,228,830 | 33.72% | -48.85% | |
| Independent Greens | Glenda Parker | 21,690 | 0.60% | +0.60% | |
| Libertarian | Bill Redpath | 20,269 | 0.56% | +0.56% | |
| Write-in | 3,178 | 0.09% | -0.47% | ||
| Total votes | 3,643,294 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
