2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas

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Nominee John McCain Barack Obama Party Republican Democratic Home state Arizona Illinois Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden Electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 638,017 422,310 Percentage 58.72% 38.86%

County Results McCain   40-50%   50-60%   60-70%   70-80% Obama   50-60%   60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

Elections in Arkansas
Federal government Presidential elections 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Presidential primaries Democratic 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Republican 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 U.S. Senate elections 1836 1837 1840 1843 1844 sp 1846 1848 1848 sp 1853 1855 1859 1868 1870 1876 1877 1878 1883 1885 1885 sp 1889 1891 1895 1897 1901 1903 1906 1907 1909 1913 1913 sp 1914 1916 sp 1918 1920 1924 1926 1930 1932 1932 sp 1936 1937 sp 1938 1942 1944 1948 1950 1954 1956 1960 1962 1966 1968 1972 1974 1978 1980 1984 1986 1990 1992 1996 1998 2002 2004 2008 2010 2014 2016 2020 2022 2026 2028 U.S. House of Representatives elections 1836 1837 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1847 AL sp 1848 1851 1852 1853 1854 1856 1858 1860 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1885 3rd sp 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 2nd sp 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1913 6th sp 1914 1916 1918 1920 1921 6th sp 1922 1923 6th sp 1924 1926 1928 1930 4th sp 1932 1933 5th sp 1934 1936 1938 1939 4th sp 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1961 6th sp 1962 1964 1966 4th sp 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 3rd sp 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
State government State elections 2006 2010 2014 2018 2020 2022 Gubernatorial elections 1862 (C) ... 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 ... 1910 1912 1913 sp 1914 1916 1918 ... 1922 ... 1926 ... 1930 1932 ... 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Lieutenant gubernatorial elections 2022 Secretary of State elections 2022 Attorney General elections 2022 Treasurer elections 2022 2024 (special) Senate elections 2020 2022 House of Representatives elections 2020 2022
Ballot measures 1990 Amendment 3 2004 Amendment 3 2008 Act 1 2012 Issue 1 2018 Issue 5
Little Rock Mayoral elections 1994 ... 2018
v t e

The 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. State voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Arkansas was won by Republican John McCain by a 19.86% margin of victory, an even greater margin than George W. Bush attained in 2004, despite the national Democratic trend. This was likely due to the issue of race in the presidential election.^[1] Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise a red state. The state trended dramatically Republican in 2008, as McCain received over 4% more of the statewide popular vote than Bush earned in 2004 and more than doubled his margin of victory. Only five counties swung more Democratic in 2008, and the vast majority of counties swung heavily Republican, some by as much as 30%.^[2] Of the ten counties with the largest percentage swing to the Republicans in the U.S. during this election, six of them were located in Arkansas.^[3]

Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Arkansas. Since 1996, Arkansas has rapidly transformed from a Democratic stronghold into one of the most Republican states in the nation. It was also one of the six states where neither Obama nor McCain won during the primary season, and the strongest of five states that swung rightward in this election, the others being Oklahoma, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

Despite McCain's landslide victory in the state's presidential race, Democratic Senator Mark Pryor easily won re-election on the same ballot. This was the first time Arkansas did not vote for the winner of the presidential election since 1968.

Primaries

• 2008 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary
• 2008 Arkansas Republican presidential primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Polling

John McCain won every single opinion poll taken in Arkansas prior to the election, with leads ranging from 7% to 29%. Although, McCain polled just in the low 50% range.^[17] RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 52.3% for McCain, compared to 38.8% for Obama. The margin of victory on election day was more than double of the RCP average.^[18] The state was not seriously contested by either campaign.

Fundraising

Obama raised $1,004,783. McCain raised $934,884. Both candidates raised the most in Pulaski County.^[19][20]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent over $110,350. McCain spent only $459.^[21] Neither candidate visited the state.^[22]

Analysis

Although former President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, easily carried his home state of Arkansas in 1992 and 1996, the state was largely considered a safe state for McCain. Early polls gave McCain a 9-point lead among possible voters on Election Day.^[23] Although the state was still strongly Democratic at the non-presidential levels, on Election Day, Arkansas voted for McCain by a margin of approximately 20%--ten points better than Bush's showing four years earlier. In this election, Arkansas voted 27.12% to the right of the nation at-large.^[24]

A handful of counties — some of which had not voted for the Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon won every county in 1972 — swung safely into the GOP column. The Delta county of Jackson, for example, swung from a 14.3-point victory for Democrat Kerry in 2004 to a 16.3-point victory for McCain in 2008. Possible factors suggested for such a large swing away from the Democrats was Obama's status as the first African American major-party nominee in a historically-segregationist state still dominated by conservative whites,^[25] as well as the fact that Hillary Clinton, who once served as First Lady of Arkansas while her husband was Governor, did not receive the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The polls showed Clinton defeating McCain in Arkansas. Obama became the first Democrat in history to win the White House without carrying Arkansas.

During the same election, however, freshman Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Pryor faced no Republican opposition, and was reelected in a landslide victory over Rebekah Kennedy of the Green Party. The four members of the state's delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives (three Democrats and one Republican) were also reelected with no major-party opposition. Republicans, however, picked up three seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives and one Democratic state representative became a Green (he later returned to the Democratic Party in 2009).

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Bradley (largest city: Warren)
• Clay (largest city: Piggott)
• Hempstead (largest city: Hope)
• Jackson (largest city: Newport)
• Clark (largest city: Arkadelphia)
• Lawrence (largest city: Walnut Ridge)
• Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
• Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
• Mississippi (largest city: Osceola)
• Monroe (largest city: Clarendon)
• Poinsett (largest city: Harrisburg)
• Randolph (largest city: Pocahontas)

By congressional district

McCain swept every congressional district in Arkansas, three of which were held by Democrats.

Electors

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[28] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 6 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:^[29]

1. Jim Burnett
2. Reta Hamilton
3. Rose Bryant Jones
4. Phyllis Kincannon
5. Steve Lux
6. Kermit Parks