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The 2012 Queensland state election will elect all 89 members of the Legislative Assembly on 24 March 2012.[3]
Queensland elections must be held on a Saturday, the last possible date being calculated by reference to the previous election writs, and therefore slightly longer than three years after the previous election. All seats in the Legislative Assembly, whose current members were elected at the 2009 election, will become vacant.
The Labor Party, currently led by Premier Anna Bligh, will attempt to win a sixth term against the Liberal National Party currently led by Campbell Newman. It would also be the ALP's attempt at a ninth consecutive election victory having won every general election since 1989 although it was out of office between 1996 and 1998. Katter's Australian Party will be contesting the election for the first time. It currently holds two seats in parliament, one gained as a result of Aidan McLindon's merger of his Queensland Party with Katter's group and the other after LNP MP Shane Knuth defected.
In the 2009 state election—of 89 seats total—Labor won 51 seats, the Liberal Nationals won 34 seats, with four seats held by independents.
Queensland uses Optional Preferential Voting. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland, an independent body answerable to Parliament.
Leadership of the Liberal National Party
Campbell Newman was elected leader of the LNP in early 2011 while he was the Lord Mayor of Brisbane. Standard practice in Westminster systems calls for an MP from a safe seat to resign so that a newly elected leader can get into parliament via a by-election, though this is not universally followed. However, when Newman won the leadership in 2011, a by-election could not be arranged.[4] For this reason, Jeff Seeney was elected as interim parliamentary leader of the LNP and Leader of the Opposition. Newman will lead the LNP election team and simultaneously contest the seat of Ashgrove as the LNP candidate.[5]
If Newman wins Ashgrove, he is expected to become parliamentary leader of the LNP, and is expected to replace Bligh as premier if he wins Ashgrove and the LNP wins government. If he is successful in winning Ashgrove and leading the LNP to a majority, Newman will be the first non-Labor premier from the Brisbane area since Digby Denham in 1915.[4]
Date
In Queensland, a parliamentary term is a maximum of three years, measured from the day set for the return of the electoral writs. The previous state election was held on 21 March 2009 to elect the 89 members of the Legislative Assembly.
Section 80 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 states that an election must be held on a Saturday; and that the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs. Five to seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence.[6]
The Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 provides that the Legislative Assembly continues for (up to) three years from the day set for the return of writs for the previous election, after which time the Legislative Assembly lapses.[7] The day set for the return of writs for the 2009 election was 20 April 2009.[8] The Electoral Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general election "not later than 4 days after the day on which the Legislative Assembly is dissolved or expires by the passage of time" (section 78(2)). The last possible day for the next election was therefore a Saturday not more than 56 days beyond 4 days after the expiry of the Legislative Assembly on 24 April 2012, namely, 16 June 2012.
In choosing 24 March, Bligh made the unusual step of announcing the election date two months prior. Bligh was criticised for selecting a date which required the postponement of local government elections.[9] Bligh has said that date allowed Queenslanders to view the final report of the Commission of Inquiry into the 2010–11 Queensland floods before they vote.[10] Normal practice in Australia is for parliament to be dissolved at the time of the election announcement; it was the first time in Queensland's history that the voters knew the election date in advance. However, Bligh did not formally ask Governor Penelope Wensley to dissolve Parliament until 19 February. Wensley granted the request, formally beginning the 35-day campaign.[11] By not asking for a dissolution in January, Bligh avoided placing the government in caretaking mode for 25 days.[10]
Last election
The last state election to be held was the 2009 Queensland State election where the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Anna Bligh competed against the newly formed Liberal National Party led by Leader of the Opposition Lawrence Springborg for a fifth consecutive term in office. The election was the first for Bligh who had succeeded former Premier Peter Beattie a little over a year before the election. Springborg had taken the former Coalition to the 2004 and 2006 State elections losses but had reduced Labor's margin at each.
The Labor Party went into the election with a substantially comfortable margin with 59 seats to the Liberal National Parties 25 seats. Queensland re-elected the Labor Party with a reduced majority and in turn elected the first Government to be led by a female within Australia. The only Green member of parliament lost his seat of Indooroopilly and the only One Nation member, Rosa Lee Long failed in her attempt to win the new seat of Dalrymple after her electorate of Tablelands was abolished.
Retiring MPs
The following Members of Parliament have announced they will not seek re-election:
Labor
- Julie Attwood (Mount Ommaney) — announced 16 January 2012[12]
- Desley Boyle (Cairns) — announced 17 February 2011[13]
- Paul Lucas (Lytton) — announced 15 September 2011[13]
- Carolyn Male (Pine Rivers) — announced 3 February 2012[14]
- John Mickel (Logan) — announced 10 August 2011[13]
- Lindy Nelson-Carr (Mundingburra) — announced 28 March 2011[13]
- Neil Roberts (Nudgee) — announced 12 December 2011[15]
- Stephen Robertson (Stretton) — announced 27 March 2011[13]
- Robert Schwarten (Rockhampton) — announced 17 February 2011[13]
- Judy Spence (Sunnybank) — announced 15 December 2010[13]
LNP
- Mike Horan (Toowoomba South) — announced 26 March 2011[13]
Independent
- Dorothy Pratt (Nanango) — announced 15 April 2011[16]
Dumped Candidates
The Liberal National Party lost two candidates for the Gold Coast seat of Broadwater. Richard Townson was caught drink driving with a blood alcohol content of 0.07 when he was in a police random breath test. Cameron Caldwell was disendorsed he confirmed he had attended a Gold Coast swingers' club. [17]
Polling
Newspoll polling was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at around ±3 percent.
| Primary vote | 2PP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LNP | GRN | OTH | ALP | LNP | ||
| Feb 3–15 2012 | 30% | 47% | 9% | 14% | 42% | 58% | |
| Oct – Dec 2011 | 31% | 44% | 10% | 15% | 44% | 56% | |
| Jul – Sep 2011 | 27% | 50% | 8% | 15% | 39% | 61% | |
| Apr – May 2011 | 31% | 51% | 7% | 11% | 40% | 60% | |
| Jan – Mar 2011 | 38% | 37% | 10% | 15% | 52% | 48% | |
| Oct – Dec 2010 | 26% | 45% | 13% | 16% | 41% | 59% | |
| Jul – Sep 2010 | 29% | 44% | 14% | 13% | 43% | 57% | |
| 2009 Election | 42.3% | 41.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 50.9% | 49.1% | |
| 18 – 19 Mar 2009 | 42% | 42% | 7% | 9% | 49.9% | 50.1% | |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. | |||||||
| Bligh | Newman | |
|---|---|---|
| ALP | LNP | |
| Feb 3–15 2012 | 40% | 44% |
| Oct – Dec 2011 | 39% | 43% |
| Jul – Sep 2011 | 34% | 48% |
| Apr – May 2011 | 35% | 49% |
| Jan – Mar 2011 | 53% | 26%2 |
| Oct – Dec 2010 | 31% | 41%2 |
| Jul – Sep 2010 | 34% | 42%2 |
| 2009 election | – | – |
| 18 – 19 Mar 2009 | 53% | 33%1 |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Lawrence Springborg 2 John-Paul Langbroek | ||
| Bligh | Newman | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LNP | |||
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |
| Feb 3–15 2012 | 41% | 50% | 45% | 37% |
| Oct – Dec 2011 | 39% | 50% | 45% | 33% |
| Jul – Sep 2011 | 38% | 52% | 51% | 27% |
| Apr – May 2011 | 40% | 50% | 50% | 22% |
| Jan – Mar 2011 | 49% | 43% | 33%2 | 40%2 |
| Oct – Dec 2010 | 24% | 67% | 38%2 | 38%2 |
| Jul – Sep 2010 | 26% | 65% | 32%2 | 42%2 |
| 2009 election | – | – | – | – |
| 18 – 19 Mar 2009 | 46% | 44% | 39%1 | 49%1 |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Lawrence Springborg 2 John-Paul Langbroek | ||||
See also
References
- ^ Melinda Howells. "LNP to start favourite for March poll". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 25 January 2012.
- ^ Campbell Newman leads the party from outside the state parliament; in state parliament until the election the party was led by Jeff Seeney as Leader of the Opposition. See #Leadership of the Liberal National Party.
- ^ Bligh officially sets Queensland election date – Australian Broadcasting Corporation – Retrieved 19 February 2012.
- ^ a b Green, Antony. Queensland election preview. Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 25 January 2012.
- ^ Robinson, Paul: LNP leadership wrangle a 'Campbell shambles', ABC News, 23 March 2011.
- ^ "Electoral Act 1992" (PDF). Retrieved 25 January 2012.
- ^ "Constitution of Queensland 2001" (PDF). Retrieved 25 January 2012.
- ^ "ECQ Election timetable, 2009". Ecq.qld.gov.au. Retrieved 25 January 2012.
- ^ Matt Wordsworth (25 January 2012). "Bligh's poll timing sparks outcry". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 26 January 2012.
- ^ a b Matt Wordsworth (25 January 2012). "Qld to have March 24 poll". PM. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 28 January 2012.
- ^ "Bligh officially sets Queensland election date". PM. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 19 February 2012. Retrieved 20 February 2012.
- ^ "Julie Attwood to bow out". Courier Mail. 16 January 2012. Retrieved 17 January 2012.
- ^ a b c d e f g h "QLD MPs to step down at election". Brisbane Times. 15 September 2011. Retrieved 15 September 2011.
- ^ "Pine Rivers MP Carolyn Male quits politics". Courier Mail. 3 February 2012.
- ^ Helbig, Koren (12 December 2011). "Queensland Police Minister Neil Roberts is eighth Labor MP to quit before state election". Courier Mail. Retrieved 12 December 2011.
- ^ "As the major parties goe to war, Dolly calls it a day". Brisbanetimes.com.au. 16 April 2011. Retrieved 25 January 2012.
- ^ http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-loses-a-second-broadwater-candidate-20120224-1ttfj.html
External links
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