2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 6, 2012, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2012 presidential election and the 2012 Senate elections, were also held on this date.

Election ratings

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

District CPVI Incumbent Previous
result 		Cook
November 5, 2012[1] 		Rothenberg
November 2, 2012[2] 		Sabato
November 5, 2012[3] 		RCP
November 4, 2012[4] 		Roll Call
November 4, 2012[5] 		NYT
November 4, 2012[6] 		The Hill
November 4, 2012[7] 		Winner
Arizona 1 R+3 Paul Gosar (R) (switching seats)[a] 49.7% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
Arizona 2 R+2 Ron Barber (D) 52.3% D Lean D Tilt D Likely D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Ron Barber (D)
Arizona 9 R+1 David Schweikert (R) (switching seats)[b] 52.0% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Arkansas 1 R+7 Rick Crawford (R) 51.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Rick Crawford (R)
Arkansas 4 R+9 Mike Ross (D) (retiring) 57.5% D Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tom Cotton (R)
California 3 D+1 John Garamendi (D) 58.8% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D John Garamendi (D)
California 7 R+3 Dan Lungren (R) 50.1% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Ami Bera (D)
California 9 D+2 Jerry McNerney (D) 48.0% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Jerry McNerney (D)
California 10 R+5 Jeff Denham (R) 64.6% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Jeff Denham (R)
California 16 D+2 Jim Costa (D) 51.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Likely D Jim Costa (D)
California 21 R+3 (New seat) Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Lean R David Valadao (R)
California 24 D+3 Lois Capps (D) 57.8% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Lois Capps (D)
California 26 D+2 Elton Gallegly (R) (retiring) 59.9% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Julia Brownley (D)
California 36 R+3 Mary Bono (R) 51.4% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Raul Ruiz (D)
California 41 D+3 (New seat) Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Mark Takano (D)
California 47 D+5 (New seat) Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Alan Lowenthal (D)
California 52 R+1 Brian Bilbray (R) 56.6% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Scott Peters (D)
Colorado 3 R+4 Scott Tipton (R) 50.1% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Scott Tipton (R)
Colorado 6 R+1 Mike Coffman (R) 65.7% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Mike Coffman (R)
Colorado 7 D+3 Ed Perlmutter (D) 53.4% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Safe D Safe D Ed Perlmutter (D)
Connecticut 4 D+5 Jim Himes (D) 53.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Jim Himes (D)
Connecticut 5 D+2 Chris Murphy (D) (retiring)[c] 54.1% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Elizabeth Esty (D)
Florida 2 R+3 Steve Southerland (R) 53.6% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Steve Southerland (R)
Florida 9 D+4 (New seat) Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Alan Grayson (D)
Florida 10 R+3 Daniel Webster (R) 56.1% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Daniel Webster (R)
Florida 13 R+1 Bill Young (R) 65.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Lean R Bill Young (R)
Florida 16 R+5 Vern Buchanan (R) 68.9% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Vern Buchanan (R)
Florida 18 R+1 Tom Rooney (R) (switching seats)[d] 66.9% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Patrick Murphy (D)
Florida 24 D+5 Allen West (R) (switching seats)[e] 54.4% R Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lois Frankel (D)
Florida 26 R+3 David Rivera (R) 52.2% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Joe Garcia (D)
Georgia 12 R+9 John Barrow (D) 56.6% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup John Barrow (D)
Illinois 8 D+6 Peter Roskam (R) (switching seats)[f] 63.7% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Tammy Duckworth (D)
Illinois 10 D+8 Bob Dold (R) 51.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Brad Schneider (D)
Illinois 11 D+6 Judy Biggert (R) 63.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Bill Foster (D)
Illinois 12 D+2 Jerry Costello (D) 59.8% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup William Enyart (D)
Illinois 13 D+1 (New seat)[g] Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Rodney Davis (R)
Illinois 17 D+6 Bobby Schilling (R) 52.6% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Cheri Bustos (D)
Indiana 2 R+7 Joe Donnelly (D) (retiring)[c] 48.2% D Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe D Lean R (flip) Jackie Walorski (R)
Indiana 8 R+8 Larry Bucshon (R) 57.6% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Safe R Lean R Lean R Larry Bucshon (R)
Iowa 1 D+5 Bruce Braley (D) 49.5% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Bruce Braley (D)
Iowa 2 D+4 Dave Loebsack (D) 55.4% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Lean D Dave Loebsack (D)
Iowa 3 R+1 Leonard Boswell (D) [h] 48.2% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tom Latham (R)
Iowa 4 R+4 Tom Latham (R) (switching seats)[i] 65.8% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Steve King (R)
Kentucky 6 R+7 Ben Chandler (D) 50.1% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Andy Barr (R)
Maine 2 D+3 Mike Michaud (D) 55.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D Likely D Mike Michaud (D)
Maryland 6 D+2 Roscoe Bartlett (R) 61.5% R Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) John Delaney (D)
Massachusetts 6 D+7 John F. Tierney (D) 56.9% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) John F. Tierney (D)
Michigan 1 R+4 Dan Benishek (R) 51.9% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Dan Benishek (R)
Michigan 3 R+5 Justin Amash (R) 59.7% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Justin Amash (R)
Michigan 6 R+1 Fred Upton (R) 62.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Fred Upton (R)
Michigan 7 R+3 Tim Walberg (R) 50.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Tim Walberg (R)
Michigan 11 R+4 (Vacant)[j] 59.3% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R Lean R Likely R Kerry Bentivolio (R)
Minnesota 2 R+2 John Kline (R) 63.3% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Likely R John Kline (R)
Minnesota 6 R+8 Michele Bachmann (R) 52.5% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Michele Bachmann (R)
Minnesota 7 R+5 Collin Peterson (D) 60.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Collin Peterson (D)
Minnesota 8 D+3 Chip Cravaack (R) 48.2% R Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Rick Nolan (D)
Montana at-large R+7 Denny Rehberg (R) (retiring)[c] 60.3% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Steve Daines (R)
Nebraska 2 R+6 Lee Terry (R) 60.8% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Safe R Likely R Lee Terry (R)
Nevada 3 Even Joe Heck (R) 48.1% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Joe Heck (R)
Nevada 4 D+2 (New seat) Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Steven Horsford (D)
New Hampshire 1 Even Frank Guinta (R) 54.0% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Carol Shea-Porter (D)
New Hampshire 2 D+3 Charles Bass (R) 48.3% R Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Annie Kuster (D)
New Jersey 3 R+3 Jon Runyan (R) 50.0% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Likely R Likely R Jon Runyan (R)
New Jersey 5 R+4 Scott Garrett (R) 65.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Scott Garrett (R)
New Jersey 7 R+6 Leonard Lance (R) 65.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Leonard Lance (R)
New Jersey 9 D+11 Bill Pascrell (D) 62.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Bill Pascrell (D)
New Mexico 1 D+5 Martin Heinrich (D) (retiring)[c] 51.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Likely D Martin Heinrich (D)
New York 1 Even Tim Bishop (D) 50.2% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tim Bishop (D)
New York 11 R+6 Michael Grimm (R) 51.3% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tossup Likely R Michael Grimm (R)
New York 18 R+2 Nan Hayworth (R) 52.7% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
New York 19 Even Chris Gibson (R) 54.9% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Chris Gibson (R)
New York 21 R+2 Bill Owens (D) 47.5% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Bill Owens (D)
New York 22 R+3 Richard Hanna (R) 53.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Likely R Richard Hanna (R)
New York 23 R+3 Tom Reed (R) 52.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Tom Reed (R)
New York 24 D+3 Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 50.2% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Dan Maffei (D)
New York 25 D+5 Louise Slaughter (D) 64.9% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Louise Slaughter (D)
New York 27 R+7 Kathy Hochul (D) 47.2% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Chris Collins (R)
North Carolina 7 R+11 Mike McIntyre (D) 53.7% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Mike McIntyre (D)
North Carolina 8 R+12 Larry Kissell (D) 53.0% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tossup Likely R (flip) Richard Hudson (R)
North Carolina 11 R+12 Heath Shuler (D) (retiring) 54.3% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Mark Meadows (R)
North Carolina 13 R+9 Brad Miller (D) (retiring) 55.5% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) George Holding (R)
North Dakota at-large R+10 Rick Berg (R) (retiring)[c] 54.7% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Kevin Cramer (R)
Ohio 6 R+5 Bill Johnson (R) 50.2% R Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Bill Johnson (R)
Ohio 7 R+5 Bob Gibbs (R) 53.9% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Bob Gibbs (R)
Ohio 9 D+15 Marcy Kaptur (D) 59.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Marcy Kaptur (D)
Ohio 16 R+5 Jim Renacci (R)[k] 52.1% R Lean R Tilt R Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Jim Renacci (R)
Oklahoma 2 R+14 Dan Boren (D) (retiring) 56.5% D Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Lean R (flip) Markwayne Mullin (R)
Oregon 5 Even Kurt Schrader (D) 51.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Likely D Kurt Schrader (D)
Pennsylvania 6 R+1 Jim Gerlach (R) 53.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Jim Gerlach (R)
Pennsylvania 7 Even Pat Meehan (R) 54.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Likely R Pat Meehan (R)
Pennsylvania 8 D+1 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 53.5% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Lean R Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
Pennsylvania 11 R+6 Lou Barletta (R) 54.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Lou Barletta (R)
Pennsylvania 12 R+6 Jason Altmire (D) (lost renomination)[l] 50.8% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Keith Rothfus (R)
Pennsylvania 15 R+2 Charlie Dent (R) 53.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Charlie Dent (R)
Pennsylvania 18 R+6 Tim Murphy (R) 67.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Tim Murphy (R)
Rhode Island 1 D+14 David Cicilline (D) 50.6% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup David Cicilline (D)
South Dakota at-large R+9 Kristi Noem (R) 48.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Kristi Noem (R)
Tennessee 4 R+13 Scott DesJarlais (R) 57.1% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Scott DesJarlais (R)
Texas 10 R+11 Michael McCaul (R) 64.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Michael McCaul (R)
Texas 14 R+8 Ron Paul (R) (retiring) 76.0% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Randy Weber (R)
Texas 23 R+5 Quico Canseco (R) 49.4% R Tossup Tilt R Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Pete Gallego (D)
Texas 34 D+3 (New seat) Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Filemon Vela Jr. (D)
Utah 4 R+14 (New seat)[m] Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Jim Matheson (D)
Virginia 2 R+5 Scott Rigell (R) 53.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Scott Rigell (R)
Virginia 5 R+5 Robert Hurt (R) 50.8% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Robert Hurt (R)
Washington 1 D+3 (Vacant)[n] 57.7% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Suzan DelBene (D)
Washington 3 R+2 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 53.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
Washington 10 D+4 (New seat) Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Likely D Denny Heck (D)
West Virginia 3 R+6 Nick Rahall (D) 56.0% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Nick Rahall (D)
Wisconsin 7 Even Sean Duffy (R) 52.1% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Tossup Sean Duffy (R)
Wisconsin 8 R+2 Reid Ribble (R) 55.9% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Reid Ribble (R)
Overall R - 217
D - 174
44 tossups 		R - 233
D - 185
18 tossups 		R - 239
D - 196 		R - 224
D - 178
33 tossups 		R - 227
D -175
33 tossups 		R - 227
D - 183
25 tossups 		Republican retain
35 tossups 		R - 234
D - 201

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Contested the new 4th and won.
  2. ^ Contested the 6th and won.
  3. ^ a b c d e Retired to run for senate
  4. ^ Contested the new 17th and won. Allen West (R) ran in this seat and lost.
  5. ^ Contested the 18th and lost.
  6. ^ Contested the new 6th and won. Joe Walsh (R) ran in this seat and lost.
  7. ^ Tim Johnson (R) ran in this seat but retired after the primaries.
  8. ^ Fellow incumbent Tom Latham (R) moved from the 4th to run in this seat.
  9. ^ Latham moved to the 3rd to run there. Steve King moved from the old 5th to run in this seat.
  10. ^ Thad McCotter resigned in July 2012, David Curson (D) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of McCotter's term.
  11. ^ Fellow incumbent Betty Sutton (D) moved from the 18th to run in this seat.
  12. ^ Fellow incumbent Mark Critz (D) moved from the 12th to run in this seat, but lost.
  13. ^ Jim Matheson (D) moved from the 2nd district to run in this new seat.
  14. ^ Jay Inslee resigned in March 2012, Suzan DelBene (D) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of Inslee's term.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "2012 House Race Ratings for November 5, 2012". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. November 5, 2012. Archived from the original on October 28, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  2. ^ "House Ratings". rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Rothenberg Political Report. November 2, 2012. Archived from the original on November 11, 2012. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  3. ^ Larry J. Sabato; Kyle Kondik; Geoffrey Skelley (November 5, 2012). "Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
  4. ^ [1], as of November 4, 2012
  5. ^ "Race Ratings Chart for 2012 House Elections". rollcall.com/. Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 9, 2012. Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  6. ^ House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012
  7. ^ "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
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