2012 YQ₁

Orbit (blue) of asteroid 2012 YQ1 for 6 February 2013
Discovery[1][2]
Discovered by	A. Oreshko T. Kryachko
Discovery site	Elena Remote Obs.
Discovery date	19 December 2012 (first observed only)
Designations
MPC designation	2012 YQ1
Minor planet category	NEO · Apollo · PHA[2][3]
Orbital characteristics[3]
Epoch 13 January 2016 (JD 2457400.5)
Uncertainty parameter 6
Aphelion	3.11880 AU (466.566 Gm)
Perihelion	0.86916 AU (130.024 Gm)
Semi-major axis	1.99398 AU (298.295 Gm)
Eccentricity	0.56411
Orbital period (sidereal)	2.82 yr (1028.4 d)
Mean anomaly	12.74578°
Mean motion	0° 21m 0.158s /day
Inclination	5.15193°
Longitude of ascending node	120.16813°
Argument of perihelion	42.09537°
Earth MOID	0.00774939 AU (1,159,292 km)
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter	~220 m (720 ft)[4]
Absolute magnitude (H)	21.1[3] · 20.9[5]

2012 YQ₁ is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object and a potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, approximately 200 meters in diameter. It was first observed on 19 December 2012, by astronomers Andrey Oreshko and Timur Kryachko at the Elena Remote Observatory (G32) located in the Chilean Atacama desert.^[1][2]

Description

With a 4-day observation arc, the asteroid had a 1 in 3 million chance of impacting in 2106.^[4] With a 10-day observation arc, the asteroid had a 1 in 10 million chance of impacting in 2106.^[5] On 5 January 2013, the asteroid passed 0.10 AU (15,000,000 km; 9,300,000 mi) from Earth.^[3] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 8 January 2013.^[6] It had an observation arc of 32 days and an orbital uncertainty of 7.^[3] Since the asteroid had a poorly known orbit, the cone of uncertainty quickly multiplied as a result of perturbations by the inner planets and prevented precise/reliable ephemeris data. Eliminating an entry on the Sentry Risk Table is a negative prediction; a prediction of where it will NOT be. With MPEC 2024-C131 the Minor Planet Center published on 12 February 2024 a newly computed orbit, using observations till 12 November 2023 and prediscovery observations from 31 May till 5 June 2010, reducing the uncertainty to 1.

In the popular press

In 2013, an article, originally posted on The Voice of Russia^[7] had a poorly researched headline stating "We have 93 years left till the next End of the World".^[8] This story was reposted on Space Daily, but then astronomer Phil Plait clarified that it was "a fascinating mix of fact and error. A lot of what it says is accurate, but the most important claim—that an asteroid will impact Earth in 2106—is simply wrong."^[8]