2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election
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Nominee Mark Dayton Jeff Johnson
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Running mate Tina Smith Bill Kuisle
Popular vote 989,113 879,257
Percentage 50.1% 44.5%
Dayton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Johnson:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes
Governor before election

Mark Dayton
Democratic (DFL)

Elected Governor

Mark Dayton
Democratic (DFL)

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The 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Minnesota concurrently with the election to Minnesota's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor governor Mark Dayton ran for re-election to a second term in office.[1] Incumbent Democratic lieutenant governor Yvonne Prettner Solon retired and Tina Smith was selected as his new running mate.[2]

Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014. Dayton and Smith won the Democratic primary and the Republicans nominated Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson and his running mate former state representative Bill Kuisle. In the general election, Dayton and Smith defeated them and several other minor party candidates with just over 50% of the vote. Dayton's victory broke his own record, set in 2010, as the oldest Minnesota gubernatorial candidate to win an election; he was 67.[3] It was also the first gubernatorial race since 1994 in which the winner received a majority of the votes cast.

The election was the first time since 1994 that a third party did not gain more than 6% of the total vote.

Background

Incumbent Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty declined to run for a third term in 2010, instead running for the Republican presidential nomination in the 2012 election. State Representative Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination and former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton won the DFL nomination with a plurality over State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. After a very close race, Dayton defeated Emmer by just 8,770 votes, 0.42% of all votes cast.

Dayton's victory was one of just four that Minnesota Democrats have achieved out of 28 gubernatorial elections during a Democratic presidency.[4] Despite this, and despite his narrow margin of victory in 2010, Dayton was not seen as a top Republican target. The Cook Political Report[5] and The Rothenberg Political Report[6] both rate the race as "safe Democratic" and Daily Kos Elections,[7] Governing[8] and Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] all rate the race as "likely Democratic".

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Democratic primary election results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Mark Dayton/Tina Smith (incumbent) 177,849 92.99
Democratic (DFL) Leslie Davis/Gregor Soderberg 8,530 4.46
Democratic (DFL) Bill Dahn/James Vigliotti 4,880 2.55
Total votes 191,259 100

Republican primary

Until 2014, Minnesota Republicans had not had a competitive gubernatorial primary since 1924, when Theodore Christianson beat Ole Jacobson by 2.8%, taking 22.8% of the vote in a six-candidate race that saw five candidates finish in double digits. In every election since then, the nominee had won the primary by at least 17.8% and on average by 62.2%.[14]

At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, Jeff Johnson received the party's endorsement. Dave A. Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Johnson. Scott Honour, Marty Seifert and Kurt Zellers all ran in the August primary, but Johnson prevailed with 30% of the vote.[15][16]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rob
Farnsworth 		Scott
Honour 		Jeff
Johnson 		Julie
Rosen 		Ole
Savior 		Marty
Seifert 		Dave A.
Thompson 		Kurt
Zellers 		Other/
Undecided
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014 404 ± 5% — 9% 23% — — 14% — 23% 33%[48]
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 73 ± ? 1% 2% 7% — 1% 10% 5% 8% 68%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 305 ± 5.7% — 6% 8% 10% — 9% 11% 12% 44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Norm
Coleman 		Keith
Downey 		David
Hann 		Jeff
Johnson 		Julie
Rosen 		Marty
Seifert 		Kurt
Zellers 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 275 ± 5.9% 57% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 17%

Results

Results by county:
Johnson
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
Zellers
  •   20-30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40-50%
Seifert
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  •   70-80%
  •   80-90%
  •   90-100%
Honour
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
Republican primary election results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Johnson/Bill Kuisle 55,836 30.33
Republican Kurt Zellers/Dean Simpson 44,046 23.92
Republican Marty Seifert/Pam Myhra 38,851 21.10
Republican Scott Honour/Karin Housley 38,377 20.84
Republican Merrill Anderson/Mark Anderson 7,000 3.80
Total votes 184,110 100.00

Independence primary

A white woman with long brown hair speaks to her right.
Nicollet in 2014

The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato.[49]

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Results

Independence primary election results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independence Hannah Nicollet/Tim Gieseke 5,822 100
Total votes 5,822 100

Libertarian Party

The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove.[54]

Candidates

Nominee

Grassroots — Legalize Cannabis Party

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[58] Likely D November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[59] Likely D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[60] Safe D November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[61] Lean D November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Jeff
Johnson (R) 		Hannah
Nicollet (IP) 		Other Undecided
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 27–30, 2014 596 ± 4.1% 47% 42% 2% 4%[62] 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 2,430 ± 3% 50% 41% — 1% 9%
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune October 20–22, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 45% 38% 5% 2% 10%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 14–16, 2014 597 ± 4.1% 50% 40% 3% 3%[63] 4%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV September 30 – October 2, 2014 577 ± 4.2% 51% 39% 4% 2%[64] 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 2,562 ± 2% 49% 42% 0% 1% 8%
Rasmussen Reports September 29–30, 2014 750 ± 4% 50% 40% — — 10%
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune September 8–10, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 45% 33% 1% 1% 20%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 3,607 ± 2% 48% 41% — 2% 10%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV August 19–21, 2014 600 ± 4.1% 49% 40% 3% 3% 5%
Rasmussen Reports August 13–14, 2014 750 ± 4% 49% 41% — — 10%
Gravis Marketing July 2–3, 2014 879 ± 3% 52% 37% 11% — —
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 47% 36% — — 16%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV June 5–9, 2014 1,017 ± 3.1% 46% 40% 5% 2% 6%
Suffolk University April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 44% 30% — — 26%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 52% 34% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 37% — — 15%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 52% 34% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 53% 29% — — 18%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Merrill
Anderson (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 47% 35% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Norm
Coleman (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 52% 39% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Kurt
Daudt (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 51% 39% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Keith
Downey (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 53% 30% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Tom
Emmer (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 52% 39% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Rob
Farnsworth (R) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 45% 28% — 27%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 52% 31% — 17%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		David
Hann (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 51% 36% — 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Scott
Honour (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 47% 35% — 19%
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014 1,017 ± 3.1% 47% 37% 10%[65] 6%
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 45% 28% — 27%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 53% 33% — 14%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 38% — 15%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 52% 34% — 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Tim
Pawlenty (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 50% 42% — 7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Julie
Rosen (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 36% — 16%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 51% 34% — 15%
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 52% 27% — 21%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Marty
Seifert (R) 		Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 3,170 ± 2% 53% 37% 6% 4%
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 47% 36% — 17%
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014 1,017 ± 3.1% 46% 38% 10%[65] 6%
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 43% 32% — 25%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 51% 34% — 15%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 37% — 16%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Dave A.
Thompson (R) 		Other Undecided
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 43% 31% — 26%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 RV ± 4.3% 53% 32% — 15%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 37% — 15%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 51% 35% — 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Mark
Dayton (DFL) 		Kurt
Zellers (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 47% 37% — 16%
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014 1,017 ± 3.1% 46% 39% 9%[66] 5%
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 43% 31% — 26%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 52% 31% — 16%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 38% — 14%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 53% 35% — 13%
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 52% 29% — 19%

Results

2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election[67]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL)
989,113 50.07% +6.44%
Republican
879,257 44.51% +1.30%
Independence
  • Hannah Nicollet
  • Tim Gieseke
 56,900 2.88% -9.06%
Grassroots—LC
31,259 1.58% +1.23%
Libertarian
  • Chris Holbrook
  • Chris Dock
 18,082 0.92% N/A
Write-in 1,134 0.06% -0.05%
Total votes 1,975,406 100.0%
Turnout 1,992,566 50.51% -5.32%
Registered electors 3,945,136
Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "Gov. Dayton stops by KARE 11 Sunrise, says he'll run again in 2014". KARE. November 15, 2011. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved November 17, 2012.
  2. ^ Brian Bakst (January 14, 2014). "Minn. Lt. Gov. Prettner Solon says no to 2nd term". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved January 14, 2014.
  3. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (November 13, 2014). "Minnesotans Elect Oldest Governor, US House Delegation in State History". Smart Politics.
  4. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (December 6, 2013). "Can Dayton Catch Lightning in a Bottle Twice?". Smart Politics.
  5. ^ "2014 Governors Race Ratings for December 19, 2013". The Cook Political Report. December 19, 2013. Archived from the original on March 5, 2013. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  6. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. January 31, 2014. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  7. ^ Nir, David (November 15, 2013). "Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings (2013-14)". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  8. ^ "Handicapping the 2013-2014 Governors Races: The Democrats". Governing. July 16, 2013. Archived from the original on October 14, 2014. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  9. ^ "2014 Gubernatorial Races". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 3, 2014. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
  10. ^ Salisbury, Bill (January 22, 2014). "Frequent candidate Davis runs for governor, this time as a DFLer". Pioneer Press. Retrieved February 3, 2014.
  11. ^ Daily Herald Staff (June 7, 2014). "Austin resident promoting solar roads on campaign trail". Austin Daily Herald. Retrieved August 5, 2014.
  12. ^ Helgeson, Baird (February 4, 2014). "Dayton picks chief of staff Tina Smith for running mate". Star Tribune. Retrieved February 4, 2014.
  13. ^ a b c "Statewide Results for Governor & Lt Governor, Primary Election". Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved August 13, 2014.
  14. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (August 12, 2013). "100 Years of Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primaries". Smart Politics.
  15. ^ a b c Don Davis (May 31, 2014). "Jeff Johnson wins governor endorsement from Minnesota GOP". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved May 31, 2014.
  16. ^ Bill Salisbury (May 31, 2014). "MN GOP: Johnson wins party endorsement for governor's race". St. Paul Pioneer Press. Retrieved May 31, 2014.
  17. ^ "Meet 30 of the candidates for mayor of Minneapolis". Retrieved November 16, 2014.
  18. ^ "2019 Municipal and School District Elections".
  19. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (April 24, 2013). "Republican businessman announces challenge to DFL Gov. Dayton". Star Tribune. Retrieved May 2, 2013.
  20. ^ a b Bill Salisbury (May 31, 2014). "Scott Honour picks first-term lawmaker Karin Housley as running mate". St. Paul Pioneer Press. Retrieved May 31, 2014.
  21. ^ "Jeff Johnson wins governor endorsement from Minnesota GOP". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved November 16, 2014.
  22. ^ Meersman, Tom (May 5, 2013). "Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson announces he will seek GOP nomination for governor". Star Tribune. Retrieved May 5, 2013.
  23. ^ Brucato, Cyndy (November 12, 2013). "Marty Seifert will seek GOP endorsement for governor". MinnPost. Retrieved November 12, 2013.
  24. ^ Salisbury, Bill (February 27, 2014). "Governor hopeful Seifert chooses Rep. Pam Myhra as running mate". Pioneer Press. Retrieved February 27, 2014.
  25. ^ Condon, Patrick (June 23, 2013). "GOP's Zellers vows common touch in Minn. governor's race, but brings past political baggage". Associated Press. Retrieved July 10, 2013.
  26. ^ Tim Pugmire (May 22, 2014). "Zellers picks former Rep. Simpson as running mate". MPR. Retrieved May 31, 2014.
  27. ^ Salisbury, Bill (August 21, 2013). "Hibbing teacher announces run for governor; will seek GOP endorsement". Pioneer Press. Retrieved August 22, 2013.
  28. ^ "Candidate Filings".
  29. ^ Brooks, Jennifer (June 27, 2013). "GOP state Sen. Dave Thompson announces campaign for Minnesota governor". Star Tribune. Retrieved July 10, 2013.
  30. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (January 30, 2014). "Sen. Thompson picks Sen. Benson as his gubernatorial running mate". Star Tribune. Retrieved February 4, 2014.
  31. ^ Minock, Nick (August 1, 2013). "Former Senate Candidate Kurt Bills Back's Scott Honour for Governor". Northlands News Center. Archived from the original on October 5, 2013. Retrieved August 12, 2013.
  32. ^ Scheck, Tom (March 7, 2013). "Norm Coleman rules out 2014 run". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  33. ^ Brooks, Jennifer (June 22, 2013). "More GOP hopefuls prepare to jump into Minnesota governor's race". Star Tribune. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  34. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (April 6, 2013). "Minnesota Republican Party elects a new chair". Star Tribune. Retrieved February 3, 2014.
  35. ^ Scheck, Tom (February 4, 2013). "Draft Emmer?". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  36. ^ Salisbury, Bill (June 5, 2013). "Tom Emmer announces candidacy for Congress". Pioneer Press. Retrieved August 22, 2013.
  37. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (December 8, 2012). "Minnesota Republicans hold a 'pick-up-the-pieces' gathering". Star Tribune. Retrieved December 12, 2012.
  38. ^ Rupar, Aaron (July 5, 2013). "Minnesota Senate leader Hann decides against GOP governor race". Star Tribune. Retrieved July 8, 2013.
  39. ^ Kimball, Joe (February 3, 2014). "GOP state Sen. Karin Housley says she won't run for governor". MinnPost. Retrieved February 3, 2014.
  40. ^ Bierschbach, Briana (July 2, 2013). "GOP Sen. Bill Ingebrigtsen considering a run for governor". Politics in Minnesota. Retrieved August 22, 2013.
  41. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (April 19, 2013). "Kline to seek re-election, not Senate or governor's office". Star Tribune. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  42. ^ "Kriesel says he's unlikely to return to politics". KARE. June 24, 2013. Archived from the original on June 28, 2013. Retrieved August 22, 2013.
  43. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (March 22, 2013). "Republicans sniffing around bids against Dayton". Star Tribune. Retrieved March 26, 2013.
  44. ^ Diaz, Kevin (May 13, 2013). "U.S. Rep. Paulsen rules out run for Minnesota governor or U.S. Senate". Star Tribune. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
  45. ^ a b Kessler, Pat (September 20, 2012). "Pawlenty Rules Out Minnesota Electoral Bid In 2014". CBS Minnesota. Associated Press. Retrieved November 17, 2012.
  46. ^ Scheck, Tom (January 15, 2013). "Rosen pondering a run for higher office". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved January 16, 2013.
  47. ^ Scheck, Tom (October 6, 2012). "Downey doesn't rule out run for governor in 2014". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  48. ^ Other 11%, Undecided 22%
  49. ^ "Events". Independence Party of Minnesota. Retrieved February 15, 2014.
  50. ^ Cox, Peter (May 18, 2014). "Full Independence Party slate set for November elections". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved May 19, 2014.
  51. ^ "GOP and DFL candidates hit the campaign trail". TwinCities.com. June 2, 2014. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
  52. ^ http://kstp.com/article/stories/s3556490.shtml Tom Horner Endorses Jeff Johnson For Governor
  53. ^ Bakst, Brian (June 16, 2013). "Independence Party's role in Minnesota 2014 governor's race: TBD". Associated Press. Retrieved August 22, 2013.
  54. ^ "2014 LPMN State Convention". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. Retrieved April 29, 2014.
  55. ^ "Five statewide candidates up for nomination at LPMN Convention". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. Retrieved April 29, 2014.
  56. ^ "Liberty Candidates '14". Libertarian Party. Retrieved August 5, 2014.
  57. ^ Patrick Condon (June 21, 2014). "Pot activists light up Minnesota ballot". Star Tribune. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
  58. ^ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  59. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  60. ^ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  61. ^ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  62. ^ Chris Holbrook (L) 2%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%
  63. ^ Chris Holbrook (L) 1%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%
  64. ^ Chris Holbrook (L) 0%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%
  65. ^ a b Hannah Nicollet (IP) 7%, Other 3%
  66. ^ Hannah Nicollet (IP) 6%, Other 3%
  67. ^ "2014 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS". Minnesota Secretary of State.

External links

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