2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election
← 2011 November 3, 2015 2019 →
Turnout30% (Increase2%)
 
Nominee Matt Bevin Jack Conway
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jenean Hampton Sannie Overly
Popular vote 511,374 426,620
Percentage 52.5% 43.8%
Bevin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Conway:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%
Governor before election

Steve Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Matt Bevin
Republican

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The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015.[1] Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits.[2] Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.[1]

Despite trailing in most pre-election polls, Republican nominee Matt Bevin defeated Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 52.5% to 43.8% in the general election. Statewide turnout in this election was 30%. With a margin of 8.7%, this election was the closest race of the 2015 gubernatorial election cycle. As of 2023, this was the only time since 2003 that a Republican was elected Governor of Kentucky.

This is the only instance in history in which Knott County has backed a Republican candidate for governor.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Running mate: Johnathan Masters[5]
  • Former running mate: Cherokee Schill[4]

Declined

Endorsements

Jack Conway/Sannie Overly
Statewide elected officials
Individuals
Members of the Kentucky legislature
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway 		Geoff
Young 		Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 707 ± 3.5% 68% 13% 19%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 640 ± 3.9% 61% 12% 27%
Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 255 ± 6.14% 59% 13% 28%

Results

Results by county:
  Conway
  •   Conway—60–70%
  •   Conway—70–80%
  •   Conway—80–90%
Democratic primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jack Conway 140,627 78.8%
Democratic Geoff Young 37,887 21.2%
Total votes 178,514 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Running mate: Rodney Coffey, former Menifee County Sheriff, 1999–2014; Kentucky Sheriffs Association President, 2014-2015 [72]

Withdrew

  • Running mate: John Yuen, candidate for the State Senate in 2012[73]

Declined

Endorsements

James Comer/Chris McDaniel
Individuals
Organizations
  • Associated General Contractors[96]
Hal Heiner/K.C. Crosbie
Individuals
Organizations
  • Kentucky Pastors Action Coalition [97]
Matt Bevin/Jenean Hampton
Individuals
  • Hugh Hewitt, author and talk radio personality [98]
  • Sally Oh, co-founder of the Lexington Tea Party [99]
Organizations
  • Cincinnati Enquirer [100]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Cathy
Bailey 		Matt
Bevin 		James
Comer 		Hal
Heiner 		Will T.
Scott 		Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 517 ± 4.4% — 27% 26% 25% 8% 14%
Public Policy Polling May 6–7, 2015 501 ± 4.4% — 25% 28% 27% — 20%
Triumph Campaigns March 26, 2015 601 ± 4% — 12% 19% 33% 3% 29%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 520 ± 4.4% — 20% 20% 28% 8% 25%
Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 261 ± 6.07% — 18% 25% 19% 9% 30%
Remington Research January 27–28, 2015 1,000 ± ? — 19% 22% 18% 5% 26%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 383 ± ? 11% 25% 20% 18% — 26%
— — 22% 28% — 50%
Public Opinion Strategies February 26–27, 2014 400 ± 4.9% — — 42% 14% — 13%

Results

Results by county:
  Bevin
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Comer
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Heiner
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Scott
  •   30–40%
  •   60–70%
  Tie
  •   20–30%

On May 19, 2015, Matt Bevin won the Republican primary, defeating second-place finisher James Comer by 83 votes.[61]

Republican primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Bevin 70,480 32.91%
Republican James Comer 70,397 32.89%
Republican Hal Heiner 57,951 27.10%
Republican Will T. Scott 15,365 7.20%
Total votes 214,187 100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Running mate: Heather Curtis, COO of Fark.com and wife of Drew Curtis[101]
  • Running mate: Elisabeth Anderson, retired legal secretary

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[104] Tossup October 26, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report[105] Tilt D October 27, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball[106] Lean D October 29, 2015
DKE[107] Tossup October 29, 2015

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway (D) 		Matt
Bevin (R) 		Drew
Curtis (I) 		Undecided
Vox Populi October 26–27, 2015 618 ± 3.9% 44% 44% 6% 6%
43% 46% 6% 7%
Survey USA October 23–26, 2015 798 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 6% 10%
WKU Social Science Research Center October 19–25, 2015 770 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 7% 8%
Mason-Dixon October 6–8, 2015 625 ± 4% 43% 41% 6% 10%
Survey USA September 22–27, 2015 701 ± 3.8% 42% 37% 7% 15%
Survey USA July 22–28, 2015 685 ± 3.8% 43% 38% 8% 11%
45% 42% — 13%
Public Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 35% 38% 6% 21%
38% 40% — 22%
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 37% — 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 42% 36% — 22%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 45% 41% — 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 44% 36% — 20%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 39% 36% — 25%
Hypothetical polling
Conway vs. Bailey
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway (D) 		Cathy
Bailey (R) 		Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 43% 30% — 27%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 42% 30% — 28%
Conway vs. Comer
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway (D) 		James
Comer (R) 		Other Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 45% 39% — 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 40% 38% — 22%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 41% 45% — 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 40% 37% — 23%
Garin-Hart-Yang* December 19–21, 2014 608 ± 4% 48% 36% — 16%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 38% 35% — 27%
Conway vs. Heiner
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway (D) 		Hal
Heiner (R) 		Other Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 36% — 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 41% 38% — 21%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 42% 44% — 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 43% 34% — 22%
Garin-Hart-Yang* December 19–21, 2014 608 ± 4% 51% 30% — 19%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 39% 32% — 28%
Gravis Marketing July 17–20, 2014 1,054 ± 3% 45% 36% — 19%
Conway vs. Scott
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jack
Conway (D) 		Will T.
Scott (R) 		Other Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 32% — 20%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 43% 33% — 24%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 44% 40% — 16%
  • * Poll for the Kentucky Democratic Party

Results

Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2015[108][109][110]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Matt Bevin 511,374 52.52% +17.23%
Democratic Jack Conway 426,620 43.82% -11.90%
Independent Drew Curtis 35,597 3.66% N/A
Total votes 973,692 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Results by county

County[111] Matt Bevin (R) Jack Conway (D) Other Total votes
# % % # % #
Adair 66.33% 2,727 30.84% 1,268 2.82% 116 4,111
Allen 69.00% 2,344 28.76% 977 2.24% 76 3,397
Anderson 55.34% 3,724 39.16% 2,635 5.50% 370 6,729
Ballard 55.20% 1,312 41.65% 990 3.16% 75 2,377
Barren 57.40% 5,289 38.72% 3,568 3.88% 358 9,215
Bath 46.65% 1,045 49.87% 1,117 3.48% 78 2,240
Bell 58.60% 2,425 37.60% 1,556 3.79% 157 4,138
Boone 65.78% 15,842 30.80% 7,418 3.41% 822 24,082
Bourbon 45.34% 2,202 51.68% 2,510 2.99% 145 4,857
Boyd 51.70% 4,747 45.24% 4,154 3.06% 281 9,182
Boyle 54.72% 3,968 40.65% 2,948 4.63% 336 7,252
Bracken 53.78% 854 42.82% 680 3.40% 54 1,588
Breathitt 49.81% 1,313 45.83% 1,208 4.36% 115 2,636
Breckinridge 56.78% 2,648 39.84% 1,858 3.39% 158 4,664
Bullitt 57.86% 9,856 38.11% 6,492 4.03% 686 17,034
Butler 67.24% 1,786 30.38% 807 2.37% 63 2,656
Caldwell 58.97% 1,838 37.86% 1,180 3.18% 99 3,117
Calloway 55.44% 4,742 41.59% 3,558 2.97% 254 8,554
Campbell 54.15% 10,671 41.90% 8,258 3.95% 779 19,708
Carlisle 60.66% 899 37.85% 561 1.48% 22 1,482
Carroll 46.61% 867 49.62% 923 3.76% 70 1,860
Carter 53.62% 2,405 43.57% 1,954 2.81% 126 4,485
Casey 79.31% 2,836 18.15% 649 2.54% 91 3,576
Christian 56.91% 4,830 40.60% 3,446 2.49% 211 8,487
Clark 54.55% 4,551 41.33% 3,448 4.12% 344 8,343
Clay 71.11% 2,311 26.65% 866 2.25% 73 3,250
Clinton 76.36% 1,531 22.14% 444 1.50% 30 2,005
Crittenden 65.52% 1,450 31.86% 705 2.62% 58 2,213
Cumberland 70.93% 927 26.17% 342 2.91% 38 1,307
Daviess 55.12% 13,483 42.38% 10,366 2.50% 611 24,460
Edmonson 63.02% 1,503 33.75% 805 3.23% 77 2,385
Elliott 40.21% 495 57.35% 706 2.44% 30 1,231
Estill 63.08% 1,770 31.72% 890 5.20% 146 2,806
Fayette 39.72% 27,788 54.64% 38,220 5.64% 3,945 69,953
Fleming 57.65% 1,907 38.81% 1,284 3.54% 117 3,308
Floyd 42.04% 3,390 54.46% 4,392 3.50% 282 8,064
Franklin 35.20% 5,942 58.29% 9,839 6.51% 1,098 16,879
Fulton 51.45% 568 45.65% 504 2.90% 32 1,104
Gallatin 56.16% 739 39.89% 525 3.95% 52 1,316
Garrard 65.67% 2,542 29.91% 1,158 4.42% 171 3,871
Grant 62.51% 2,433 34.07% 1,326 3.42% 133 3,892
Graves 60.84% 5,370 36.13% 3,189 3.04% 268 8,827
Grayson 62.86% 3,246 33.54% 1,732 3.60% 186 5,164
Green 69.66% 2,018 27.82% 806 2.52% 73 2,897
Greenup 57.12% 4,432 40.07% 3,109 2.81% 218 7,759
Hancock 49.93% 1,114 47.69% 1,064 2.38% 53 2,231
Hardin 56.71% 11,586 39.30% 8,029 3.99% 815 20,430
Harlan 62.34% 3,099 33.61% 1,671 4.04% 201 4,971
Harrison 51.15% 2,093 43.45% 1,778 5.40% 221 4,092
Hart 57.48% 2,043 38.80% 1,379 3.71% 132 3,554
Henderson 47.19% 4,837 49.92% 5,117 2.90% 297 10,251
Henry 52.75% 2,126 42.68% 1,720 4.57% 184 4,030
Hickman 61.43% 771 36.49% 458 2.07% 26 1,255
Hopkins 60.48% 5,802 36.73% 3,524 2.79% 268 9,594
Jackson 83.36% 2,310 14.18% 393 2.45% 68 2,771
Jefferson 38.57% 74,427 58.16% 112,232 3.27% 6,302 192,961
Jessamine 61.93% 7,581 33.77% 4,134 4.30% 526 12,241
Johnson 65.39% 3,040 30.80% 1,432 3.81% 177 4,649
Kenton 57.25% 18,007 39.11% 12,301 3.64% 1,145 31,453
Knott 55.88% 1,612 39.55% 1,141 4.58% 132 2,885
Knox 67.35% 3,706 29.69% 1,634 2.96% 163 5,503
Larue 59.79% 2,009 36.13% 1,214 4.08% 137 3,360
Laurel 74.48% 8,781 22.59% 2,663 2.93% 345 11,789
Lawrence 60.87% 1,616 36.65% 973 2.49% 66 2,655
Lee 67.84% 1,042 27.47% 422 4.69% 72 1,536
Leslie 77.43% 1,654 20.18% 431 2.39% 51 2,136
Letcher 54.65% 2,360 41.11% 1,775 4.24% 183 4,318
Lewis 73.56% 1,833 23.43% 584 3.01% 75 2,492
Lincoln 64.36% 3,289 31.82% 1,626 3.82% 195 5,110
Livingston 57.49% 1,340 39.77% 927 2.75% 64 2,331
Logan 58.49% 2,345 39.04% 1,565 2.47% 99 4,009
Lyon 52.32% 1,208 45.17% 1,043 2.51% 58 2,309
Madison 55.87% 10,268 39.98% 7,348 4.16% 764 18,380
Magoffin 53.86% 1,229 43.25% 987 2.89% 66 2,282
Marion 41.20% 1,591 55.20% 2,132 3.60% 139 3,862
Marshall 53.26% 5,969 43.09% 4,830 3.65% 409 11,208
Martin 73.25% 1,268 24.21% 419 2.54% 44 1,731
Mason 52.43% 1,792 44.79% 1,531 2.78% 95 3,418
McCracken 58.42% 9,028 39.03% 6,031 2.55% 394 15,453
McCreary 65.42% 1,362 31.12% 648 3.46% 72 2,082
McLean 56.57% 1,364 40.81% 984 2.61% 63 2,411
Meade 51.37% 3,310 44.04% 2,838 4.59% 296 6,444
Menifee 53.60% 1,160 41.45% 897 4.94% 107 2,164
Mercer 60.22% 3,517 35.17% 2,054 4.61% 269 5,840
Metcalfe 57.76% 1,344 38.16% 888 4.08% 95 2,327
Monroe 67.32% 1,642 29.56% 721 3.12% 76 2,439
Montgomery 54.61% 3,271 41.39% 2,479 4.01% 240 5,990
Morgan 54.93% 1,355 40.90% 1,009 4.18% 103 2,467
Muhlenberg 49.30% 3,613 47.12% 3,453 3.58% 262 7,328
Nelson 48.35% 4,902 48.14% 4,880 3.51% 356 10,138
Nicholas 38.20% 563 58.14% 857 3.66% 54 1,474
Ohio 59.41% 3,115 38.15% 2,000 2.44% 128 5,243
Oldham 60.54% 10,896 35.58% 6,403 3.88% 699 17,998
Owen 56.10% 1,444 38.85% 1,000 5.05% 130 2,574
Owsley 70.47% 580 26.73% 220 2.79% 23 823
Pendleton 59.92% 1,567 35.79% 936 4.28% 112 2,615
Perry 62.00% 3,276 35.14% 1,857 2.86% 151 5,284
Pike 54.76% 6,146 42.24% 4,741 2.99% 336 11,223
Powell 52.48% 1,335 43.63% 1,110 3.89% 99 2,544
Pulaski 72.00% 10,623 24.83% 3,664 3.17% 467 14,754
Robertson 53.12% 247 43.44% 202 3.44% 16 465
Rockcastle 74.33% 2,536 21.81% 744 3.87% 132 3,412
Rowan 46.67% 2,179 49.71% 2,321 3.62% 169 4,669
Russell 72.08% 3,312 24.90% 1,144 3.03% 139 4,595
Scott 51.32% 6,165 43.55% 5,232 5.14% 617 12,014
Shelby 56.74% 6,573 39.49% 4,575 3.76% 436 11,584
Simpson 59.57% 1,652 38.19% 1,059 2.24% 62 2,773
Spencer 62.84% 3,169 33.81% 1,705 3.35% 169 5,043
Taylor 61.28% 3,852 35.95% 2,260 2.77% 174 6,286
Todd 62.23% 903 34.67% 503 3.10% 45 1,451
Trigg 55.01% 1,746 42.28% 1,342 2.71% 86 3,174
Trimble 54.51% 1,033 42.06% 797 3.43% 65 1,895
Union 47.53% 1,829 50.10% 1,928 2.36% 91 3,848
Warren 55.17% 12,411 41.58% 9,354 3.25% 730 22,495
Washington 57.38% 1,796 38.50% 1,205 4.12% 129 3,130
Wayne 64.54% 2,412 33.15% 1,239 2.30% 86 3,737
Webster 55.82% 1,567 41.61% 1,168 2.57% 72 2,807
Whitley 69.73% 4,772 27.13% 1,857 3.14% 215 6,844
Wolfe 46.15% 689 51.11% 763 2.75% 41 1,493
Woodford 47.53% 3,804 46.28% 3,704 6.19% 495 8,003

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bevin won 4 of 6 congressional districts. Conway won 2, including one held by a Republican.[111]

District Bevin Conway Representative
1st 58.01% 39.15% Ed Whitfield
2nd 56.96% 39.45% Brett Guthrie
3rd 37.63% 59.14% John Yarmuth
4th 58.49% 37.83% Thomas Massie
5th 62.74% 33.99% Hal Rogers
6th 46.21% 48.65% Andy Barr

References

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  29. ^ "We are proud to have Louisville Metro Councilman @CMDavidYates's support". Twitter. January 5, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  30. ^ "We are honored to have Commonwealth's Attorney Shane Young's support for our ticket". Twitter. January 6, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  31. ^ "We are honored to have Commonwealth's Attorney Dan Boaz's support for our campaign". Twitter. December 17, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  32. ^ "We are proud to have Sheriff Les Burgett's support for our ticket in 2015". Twitter. December 8, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  33. ^ "Honored to have Judge Carpenter's endorsement". Twitter. October 28, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  34. ^ "We are honored to have Mason County Attorney John Estill's endorsement for the Conway-Overly ticket in 2015". Twitter. December 9, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  35. ^ "We are honored to have John's support". Twitter. September 3, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  36. ^ "Sannie & I are grateful for Steve's support. Steve is a dynamic leader for the Henderson community". Twitter. August 22, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  37. ^ "We are honored to have David O'Neill's support for our ticket". Twitter. January 16, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  38. ^ "We are proud to have Commonwealth's Attorney GL Ovey's support for our campaign for Governor & Lt. Governor". Twitter. December 10, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  39. ^ "We are honored to have Nicholas County Judge/Executive Mike Pryor's support for our campaign". Twitter. January 15, 2015. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  40. ^ "Grateful for Judge Turner's support for our ticket". Twitter. December 1, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
  41. ^ "We are proud to have Judge Jim Ward's support for our ticket for Governor and Lt. Governor". Twitter. November 26, 2014. Retrieved January 20, 2015.
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