Murkowski: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
Miller: 30–40% 40–50%
|Elections in Alaska|
The 2016 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski won re-election to a third term in office. The primaries were held on August 16. She was challenged by several candidates, including Democrat Ray Metcalfe, a former Republican state legislator; Independent Margaret Stock, an attorney; and Libertarian Joe Miller, who had defeated Murkowski for the Republican nomination six years before.
Murkowski was re-elected with 44.4% of the vote, becoming the first person in history to win three elections to the U.S. Senate with pluralities but not majorities, having taken 48.6% in 2004 and 39.5% in 2010. Miller's 29.2% finish was then the best ever for a Libertarian candidate in a U.S. Senate election in terms of vote percentage.[a] This record was surpassed four years later by Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., who received 33.4% of the vote in the 2020 Senate election in Arkansas, which had no Democratic candidate.
After Republican U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski was elected Governor of Alaska in 2002, he appointed his daughter Lisa to the Senate to replace him. She was elected to a full term in 2004 but was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Tea Party challenger Joe Miller. She ran as a write-in candidate in the general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39.5% of the vote to Miller's 35.5% and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams' 23.5%. She is one of only two U.S. Senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other being Strom Thurmond in 1954.
As Murkowski was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010, it had been speculated that she would be challenged from the right again in 2016.
|Republican||Lisa Murkowski (incumbent)||39,545||71.52%|
Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.
Cean Stevens was originally the only Libertarian to file, and was the sole Libertarian in the primary. Stevens withdrew after winning the nomination, and the Alaska Libertarian Party nominated Joe Miller as her replacement.
|Candidate||Raised||Spent||Cash on hand|
|Lisa Murkowski (R)||$6,058,418||$7,055,457||$91,119|
|Ray Metcalfe (D)||$20,865||$13,147||$7,718|
|Margaret Stock (I)||$740,769||$738,918||$1,850|
|Joe Miller (L)||$122||$445||$99,402|
|The Cook Political Report||Likely R||November 2, 2016|
|Sabato's Crystal Ball||Safe R||November 7, 2016|
|Rothenberg Political Report||Safe R||November 3, 2016|
|Daily Kos||Safe R||November 8, 2016|
|Real Clear Politics||Safe R||November 7, 2016|
|Moore Information Archived 2016-10-08 at the Wayback Machine||October 5–6, 2016||500||± 4.0%||49%||16%||9%||8%||1%||15%|
|Alaska Survey Research||September 28 – October 2, 2016||660||± 3.8%||50%||18%||12%||7%||2%||11%|
|Moore Information Archived 2016-10-08 at the Wayback Machine||September 13–15, 2016||500||±4.0%||48%||15%||15%||7%||1%||12%|
|Moore Information (R-Murkowski)||August 27–29, 2016||500||± 4.0%||56%||—||12%||5%||10%||17%|
|Republican||Lisa Murkowski (incumbent)||138,149||44.36%||+8.87%|
|Independent||Breck A. Craig||2,609||0.84%||N/A|
Murkowski's main challenger, Stock, is running as an independent