2016 United States Senate election in Indiana
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Nominee Todd Young Evan Bayh Lucy Brenton
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Popular vote 1,423,991 1,158,974 149,481
Percentage 52.11% 42.41% 5.47%
Young:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bayh:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Dan Coats
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Todd Young
Republican

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana. The election was held alongside the presidential election and 2016 Indiana elections.

Republican incumbent Dan Coats, who served in the Senate since 2011 and previously from 1989 to 1999, ultimately chose to not seek reelection.[1] U.S. Representative Todd Young won the May 3 Republican primary to succeed him, with former U.S. Representative Baron Hill winning the Democratic nomination. However, Hill withdrew from the race on July 11, with former senator Evan Bayh entering the race to regain the seat, which he held from 1999 to 2011.

The Indiana Democratic Party formally chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Following his entry, Bayh was initially seen as the frontrunner in the race. However, during the campaign, he faced heavy criticism over his post-Senate career as a lobbyist, as well as questions about his residency in the state. Young ultimately won by a comfortable margin, defeating Bayh in the general election by 10 points.[2]

Background

Republican Senator Dan Coats, who had served in the Senate since 2011, and previously from 1989 to 1999, stated that he planned to run for re-election,[3][4] but in March 2014 his chief of staff said that Coats "has decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".[5]

On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age (just under 80 years old) by the end of the 2017–2023 term, should he complete it.[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Marlin Stutzman

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Young 		Marlin
Stutzman 		Undecided
NBC/WSJ/Marist April 26–28, 2016 645 ± 3.9% 56% 24% 20%
IPFW/Downs Center April 13–27, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 42% 34% 24%
WTHR/Howey April 18–21, 2016 507 ± 4.0% 43% 31% 26%

Results

Results by county:
  Young—80–90%
  Young—70–80%
  Young—60–70%
  Young—50–60%
  Stutzman—50–60%
  Stutzman—60–70%
  Stutzman—70–80%
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Todd Young 661,136 67.0%
Republican Marlin Stutzman 324,429 33.0%
Total votes 985,565 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Baron Hill
Individuals
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Baron Hill 516,183 100.00%
Total votes 516,183 100.00%

Democratic State Central Committee selection

On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot.[41] Hill soon after released a statement formally dropping out of the race saying he did not "...want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions,"[42] without explicitly endorsing Bayh.[42] The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state.[43] Bayh officially declared for the race July 13.[44] The Indiana Democratic Party's State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.[42]

Candidates

General election

Candidates

Debates

Dates Location Young Bayh Brenton Link
October 18, 2016 Indianapolis, Indiana Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Evan Bayh
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
Mayors
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Todd Young
Presidents of the United States
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Former state party chairs
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[63] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[64] Lean R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[65] Tossup November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[66] Tossup November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[67] Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Young (R) 		Evan
Bayh (D) 		Lucy
Brenton (L) 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,700 ± 4.6% 53% 42% — 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 1,383 ± 4.6% 52% 43% — 5%
WTHR/Howey November 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 41% 6% 7%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 923 ± 4.6% 52% 43% — 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 790 ± 4.6% 51% 44% — 5%
Gravis Marketing Oct 30–Nov 1, 2016 399 ± 4.9% 37% 40% 7% 16%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 638 ± 4.6% 51% 46% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 674 ± 4.6% 50% 46% — 4%
Monmouth University October 27–30, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 45% 45% 4% 5%
Gravis Marketing October 22–24, 2016 596 ± 2.3% 37% 39% 7% 17%
WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey October 10–16, 2016 544 ± 3.9% 43% 49% — 6%
Monmouth University October 11–13, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 42% 48% 6% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) October 9–11, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 39% 8% 13%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 2016 1,123 ± 3.0% 43% 46% — 11%
WTHR/Howey October 3–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 8% 9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) October 3, 2016[68] – – 38% 42% 7% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) September 21, 2016[68] – – 39% 44% 9% 8%
WTHR/Howey Archived October 16, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 6–8, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) September 1, 2016[68] – – 35% 44% 6% 15%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh) August 15–18, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 39% 55% — 6%
Monmouth University August 13–16, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 41% 48% 4% 7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) August 10–14, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 36% 54% — 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) August 8, 2016[68] – – 35% 48% 7% 10%
Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg) August 1–3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 32% 58% — 9%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC) July 12–14, 2016 602 ± 4.1% 33% 54% — 13%
Hypothetical polling
with Baron Hill
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Young (R) 		Baron
Hill (D) 		Undecided
Bellwether Research May 11–15, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 36% 22% 30%
WTHR/Howey April 18–21, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 48% 30% 22%
with Marlin Stutzman
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Marlin
Stutzman (R) 		Baron
Hill (D) 		Undecided
WTHR/Howey April 18–21, 2016 500 ± 4.0% 39% 36% 25%

Results

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016 [69]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Todd Young 1,423,991 52.11% -2.47%
Democratic Evan Bayh 1,158,947 42.41% +2.41%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 149,481 5.47% +0.06%
Independent James L. Johnson, Jr. (write-in) 127 0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,732,546 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

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  2. ^ Maureen Groppe (July 12, 2016). "Few former senators have done what Bayh might do". IndyStar.
  3. ^ a b Bradner, Eric (December 8, 2012). "Coats preparing for re-election in 2016 » Evansville Courier & Press". Courierpress.com. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
  4. ^ Francisco, Brian (November 2, 2011). "Coats gets head start on 2016". Journal Gazette. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
  5. ^ a b c d "Tully: Dan Coats weighing another term in Senate". IndyStar.com. March 4, 2014. Retrieved October 12, 2014.
  6. ^ a b c d e Brian Howey (January 30, 2015). "If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does?". KokomoPerspective.com. Retrieved February 3, 2015.
  7. ^ Cahn, Emily (May 9, 2015). "Marlin Stutzman Leaving House to Run for Senate". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 13, 2015. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  8. ^ Francisco, Brian (August 18, 2015). "Candidate fields growing quietly". Journal Gazette. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  9. ^ "May 3, 2016 Primary Election Candidates" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State Election Division. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  10. ^ Joseph, Cameron (March 26, 2015). "Chief of staff launches Senate bid for Coats's seat". The Hill. Retrieved March 26, 2015.
  11. ^ "Eric Holcomb drops out of Indiana senate race". WRTV. February 8, 2016. Retrieved February 8, 2016.
  12. ^ Francisco, Brian (May 11, 2015). "Banks set for Congress run". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  13. ^ a b c Howey, Brian A.; Schoeff, Mark Jr. (March 24, 2015). "Coats decision sets off 2016 Senate mad scramble". Howey Politics. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  14. ^ de la Bastide, Ken (April 20, 2015). "Brooks won't run for U.S. Senate". The Herald Bulletin. Retrieved April 20, 2015.
  15. ^ Sullivan, Sean (March 24, 2015). "Cross Rep. Larry Bucshon's name off the list of possible GOP candidates for the Indiana Senate race. He tells me he is not interested". Twitter. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  16. ^ Hakim-Shabazz, Abdul (March 24, 2015). "Coats Not Running For Re-Election". Indy Politics. Archived from the original on March 26, 2015. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  17. ^ "TBangert: Governor run for Purdue's Mitch Daniels? 'Nope'". The Indianapolis Star. April 21, 2015.
  18. ^ a b Howey, Brian (May 26, 2015). "A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up". News and Tribune. Retrieved June 4, 2015.
  19. ^ Carden, Dan (September 15, 2015). "UPDATE: Delph opts out of U.S. Senate race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
  20. ^ Raju, Manu (March 25, 2015). "Dick Lugar won't be making a comeback, declines to run for Coats' seat in #INSEN, per @kyledcheney". Twitter. Retrieved March 25, 2015.
  21. ^ Helms, Aubrey (August 4, 2015). "Young locking in fundraising advantage for U.S. Senate race". The Statehouse File. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
  22. ^ Eric Bradner; Dana Bash; MJ Lee (July 15, 2016). "Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP". CNN.
  23. ^ Carden, Dan (June 10, 2015). "Rokita opts out of U.S. Senate race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved June 10, 2015.
  24. ^ Vandenack, Tim (April 15, 2015). "U.S. Rep. Walorski to seek third term in House, won't run for Senate after all". The Elkhart Truth. Archived from the original on April 15, 2015. Retrieved April 15, 2015.
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  26. ^ a b c Francisco, Brian (January 17, 2016). "GOP Senate hopefuls aim right". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
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  29. ^ Lewis, Olivia (August 15, 2015). "Dickerson kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate seat". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved August 17, 2015.
  30. ^ "John Dickerson Drops Out of Race For U.S. Senate". wfyi Indianapolis. January 21, 2016. Retrieved January 21, 2016.
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  32. ^ Cahn, Emily; Levinson, Alexis (March 24, 2015). "Coats Retirement Sparks Hoosier State Free-for-All". Roll Call. Archived from the original on March 28, 2015. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  33. ^ a b Livingston, Abby (June 19, 2013). "Ambitious Hoosiers Wait for Future Statewide Races Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  34. ^ Smith, Brandon (May 25, 2016). "John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale As Running Mate". WFIU. Archived from the original on August 7, 2016. Retrieved July 13, 2016.
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  41. ^ a b Tom LoBianco (July 11, 2016). "First on CNN: Evan Bayh mounting Senate return". CNN.
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  46. ^ Roberts, Kelly (October 26, 2016). "Mayor Tom Henry campaigns for Evan Bayh". WANE-TV. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
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  55. ^ a b "Hubbard, Kittle Back Rep. Young to Get in Senate Race". June 2015.
  56. ^ Fiorina, Carly (October 27, 2016). "Why Indiana needs a conservative fighter like @ToddYoungIN in the U.S. Senate: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p..." Twitter. Retrieved October 29, 2016.
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  66. ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
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  68. ^ a b c d Date of polling memo, not field dates, which remain unreleased
  69. ^ "Indiana General Election, November 8, 2016". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites
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