2016 United States Senate election in Maryland
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Nominee Chris Van Hollen Kathy Szeliga
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,659,907 972,557
Percentage 60.89% 35.67%
Van Hollen:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Szeliga:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Barbara Mikulski
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Chris Van Hollen
Democratic

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maryland, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski decided to retire after five terms in the Senate.[1] Primary elections were held April 26, 2016, in which Chris Van Hollen and Kathy Szeliga were chosen as the Democratic and Republican party nominees, respectively. In addition, the Green Party chose Margaret Flowers and the Libertarian Party chose Arvin Vohra as their respective nominees.

Van Hollen was heavily favored to win the election. He ultimately won with over 60% of the vote. As typically occurs with the state's elections, most support for the Democratic nominee, Van Hollen, came from the densely populated Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area in central Maryland, while the Republican nominee, Szeliga, did well in the more sparsely populated areas on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland, and narrowly won Anne Arundel County, home to the state capital Annapolis, as well as exurban Frederick County.

As of 2023, this is the most recent statewide election in Maryland that a Democrat won without carrying Anne Arundel or Frederick counties. This election was the first time since 1980 that a man won the Class 3 Senate seat in Maryland.

Background

Mikulski first ran for the U.S. Senate in 1974, losing to Republican incumbent Charles Mathias. Mikulski then served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987 and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986, succeeding the retiring Mathias. She was re-elected by large margins in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010. Shortly after being sworn in for her fifth term in 2011, she succeeded Margaret Chase Smith as the longest-serving female senator in U.S. history,[2] and on March 17, 2012, she became the longest-serving female member of Congress in U.S. history, surpassing Congresswoman Edith Nourse Rogers of Massachusetts, who served from 1925 to 1960.[3] On March 2, 2015, Mikulski announced that she would not run for re-election to a sixth term in office.[1]

In August 2013, Abby Livingston of Roll Call had predicted that a potential retirement by Mikulski would create "chaos" and "blow open Maryland's political bottleneck" because "the state's teeming political Democratic Party talent is backed up in lower offices."[4] Among the ten Democrats who ran in the primary, only two had previously been elected to an office.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Debates

Dates Location Van Hollen Edwards Link
March 25, 2016 Baltimore, Maryland Participant Participant Full debate – C-SPAN

Endorsements

Donna Edwards
Federal politicians
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations
Chris Van Hollen
Federal politicians
Governors
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Federal politicians

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Donna
Edwards 		Chris
Van Hollen 		Other Undecided
Monmouth University Archived June 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 18–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 36% 52% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016 492 ± 4.4% 33% 42% — 25%
Marist College Archived April 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 5–9, 2016 775 ± 3.5% 38% 44% — 18%
Washington Post/University of Maryland Archived April 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine March 30 – April 3, 2016 539 ± 4.5% 44% 40% — 16%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research March 28–30, 2016 604 ± 4.9% 40% 45% — 15%
University of Baltimore March 4–9, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 34% 28% — 31%
Gonzales Research February 29 – March 4, 2016 411 ± 5.0% 41% 42% — 17%
Goucher College Archived March 7, 2016, at the Wayback Machine February 13–18, 2016 307 ± 5.6% 39% 37% — 24%
Gonzales Research January 11–16, 2016 402 ± 5% 36% 38% — 24%
University of Baltimore November 13–17, 2015 419 ± 4.8% 19% 28% 40%[13] 13%
31% 45% — 24%
Washington Post/University of Maryland October 8–11, 2015 1,006 ± 3.5% 20% 20% 33%[13] 27%
Global Strategy Group (D-Edwards) August 3–9, 2015 600 ± 4% 42% 37% — 21%
Mellman Group (D-Cummings) March 19–22, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 23% 22% 29%[13] 27%

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Van Hollen—70–80%
  •   Van Hollen—60–70%
  •   Van Hollen—50–60%
  •   Van Hollen—40–50%
  •   Van Hollen—30–40%
  •   Edwards—60–70%
  •   Edwards—50–60%
Democratic primary results, April 26[77]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chris Van Hollen 470,320 53.2%
Democratic Donna Edwards 343,620 38.9%
Democratic Freddie Dickson 14,856 1.7%
Democratic Theresa Scaldaferri 13,178 1.5%
Democratic Violet Staley 10,244 1.2%
Democratic Lih Young 8,561 1.0%
Democratic Charles Smith 7,912 0.9%
Democratic Ralph Jaffe 7,161 0.8%
Democratic Blaine Taylor 5,932 0.7%
Democratic Ed Tinus 2,560 0.3%
Total votes 884,344 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Chrys Kefalas
Newspapers
Kathy Szeliga
U.S. Senators (current and former)
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Individuals
Statewide politicians
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kathy
Szeliga 		Richard
Douglas 		Barry
Glassman 		Chrys
Kefalas 		Anthony
Seda 		Undecided
Marist College Archived April 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 5–9, 2016 368 ± 5.1% 20% 13% – 9% – 57%
Washington Post/University of Maryland Archived April 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine March 30 – April 3, 2016 283 ± 7.5% 15% 9% – 11% – 46%
University of Baltimore March 4–8, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 6% 1% – 2% <1% 79%
University of Baltimore November 13–17, 2015 307 ± 5.6% 15% 9% 8% 5% 4% 59%

Results

Republican primary results[77]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kathy Szeliga 135,337 35.6%
Republican Chris Chaffee 52,066 13.7%
Republican Chrys Kefalas 36,340 9.6%
Republican Richard Douglas 29,007 7.6%
Republican Dave Wallace 23,226 6.1%
Republican Sean Connor 21,727 5.7%
Republican Lynn Richardson 20,792 5.5%
Republican John Graziani 16,722 4.4%
Republican Greg Holmes 16,148 4.3%
Republican Mark McNicholas 9,988 2.6%
Republican Joe Hooe 8,282 2.2%
Republican Anthony Seda 3,873 1.0%
Republican Richard Shawver 3,155 0.8%
Republican Garry Yarrington 2,988 0.8%
Total votes 379,651 100.0%

Szeliga won the April 26, 2016, primary in Baltimore City and each of Maryland's counties except Calvert, St. Mary's, Charles, and Prince George's, in which Chris Chaffee received more votes.[113]

Third party and independent candidates

Green Party

Results

Green Party primary results[118]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Margaret Flowers 125 98.0%
Green None of the above 3 2.0%
Total votes 128 100.0%

Independents

Libertarian Party

General election

Candidates

Debates

Dates Location Van Hollen Szeliga Link
October 26, 2016 Baltimore, Maryland Participant Participant Full debate – C-SPAN

Endorsements

Chris Van Hollen
Federal politicians
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Kathy Szeliga
Governors
U.S. Senators (current and former)
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Individuals

c* Audrey Scott, former chair of the Maryland Republican Party[107]

  • Michael Steele, former lieutenant governor of Maryland and former chair of the Republican National Committee[128]
  • Diana Waterman, chairwoman of the Maryland Republican Party[126]
Statewide politicians
Newspapers
Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[136] Safe D November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[137] Safe D November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[138] Safe D November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[139] Safe D November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[140] Safe D November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Chris
Van Hollen (D) 		Kathy
Szeliga (R) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,216 ± 4.6% 64% 33% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 1,056 ± 4.6% 64% 33% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 851 ± 4.6% 66% 32% — 2%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 772 ± 4.6% 67% 31% — 2%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 695 ± 4.6% 66% 31% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 740 ± 4.6% 66% 31% — 3%
University of Maryland/Washington Post September 27–30, 2016 706 ± 4.0% 58% 29% 5% 6%
Goucher College Archived September 23, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 17–20, 2016 514 ± 4.3% 54% 24% 2% 19%
OpinionWorks August 18–30, 2016 754 ± 3.6% 55% 26% 1% 19%
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016 879 ± 3.3% 53% 25% — 22%

Results

United States Senate election in Maryland, 2016[141]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Chris Van Hollen 1,659,907 60.89% -1.30%
Republican Kathy Szeliga 972,557 35.67% -0.08%
Green Margaret Flowers 89,970 3.30% +2.17%
Write-in 3,736 0.14% +0.03%
Total votes 2,726,170 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Results by county

[citation needed]

County Chris Van Hollen

Democratic

Kathy Szeliga

Republican

Margaret Flowers

Green

Write-In

Write-In

Margin Total

Votes

Cast

# % # % # % # % # %
Allegany 9761 33.52% 18072 62.06% 1253 4.30% 32 0.11% -8311 -28.54% 29118
Anne Arundel 127961 48.30% 128268 48.42% 8389 3.17% 305 0.12% -307 -0.12% 264923
Baltimore (City) 193819 82.59% 29306 12.49% 11053 4.71% 511 0.22% 164513 70.10% 234689
Baltimore (County) 217151 56.41% 155079 40.29% 12251 3.18% 463 0.12% 62072 16.12% 384944
Calvert 18534 40.38% 25431 55.41% 1855 4.04% 76 0.17% -6897 -15.03% 45896
Caroline 4596 33.16% 8903 64.24% 349 2.52% 11 0.08% -4307 -31.08% 13859
Carroll 27649 30.62% 60195 66.67% 2370 2.62% 80 0.09% -32546 -36.04% 90294
Cecil 14846 33.79% 27372 62.31% 1654 3.77% 58 0.13% -12526 -28.51% 43930
Charles 48994 63.66% 25507 33.14% 2362 3.07% 105 0.14% 23487 30.52% 76968
Dorchester 6697 45.14% 7763 52.33% 360 2.43% 15 0.10% -1066 -7.19% 14835
Frederick 57084 46.57% 60516 49.37% 4809 3.92% 163 0.13% -3432 -2.80% 122572
Garrett 2696 20.22% 10210 76.58% 409 3.07% 18 0.14% -7514 -56.36% 13333
Harford 47858 36.22% 80355 60.81% 3772 2.85% 148 0.11% -32497 -24.59% 132133
Howard 97622 61.32% 55888 35.11% 5459 3.43% 224 0.14% 41734 26.22% 159193
Kent 4709 47.63% 4936 49.93% 237 2.40% 4 0.04% -227 -2.30% 9886
Montgomery 354149 75.13% 103401 21.94% 13269 2.81% 570 0.12% 250748 53.19% 471389
Prince George's 334265 87.67% 34067 8.93% 12305 3.23% 652 0.17% 300198 78.73% 381289
Queen Anne's 8472 32.41% 17006 65.06% 640 2.45% 19 0.07% -8534 -32.65% 26137
St. Mary's 17980 37.31% 28207 58.53% 1937 4.02% 65 0.13% -10227 -21.22% 48189
Somerset 4277 44.27% 5178 53.60% 196 2.03% 10 0.10% -901 -9.33% 9661
Talbot 8967 44.21% 10861 53.55% 435 2.14% 18 0.09% -1894 -9.34% 20281
Washington 23313 36.87% 37278 58.96% 2545 4.03% 87 0.14% -13965 -22.09% 63223
Wicomico 18382 44.00% 22027 52.73% 1305 3.12% 61 0.15% -3645 -8.73% 41775
Worcester 10125 36.61% 16731 60.50% 756 2.73% 41 0.15% -6606 -23.89% 27653
Total 1659907 60.89% 972557 35.67% 89970 3.30% 3736 0.14% 687350 25.21% 2726170

Counties that flipped from Democrat to Republican

See also

References

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