2018 Kansas gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout57.6%[1]
 
Nominee Laura Kelly Kris Kobach Greg Orman
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Running mate Lynn Rogers Wink Hartman John Doll
Popular vote 506,727 453,645 68,590
Percentage 48.01% 42.98% 6.50%
Kelly:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Kobach:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:       No vote:      
Governor before election

Jeff Colyer
Republican

Elected Governor

Laura Kelly
Democratic

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The 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Kansas.

Incumbent Republican governor Sam Brownback was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. On July 26, 2017, Brownback was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as United States Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. He was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 24, 2018;[2][3] he resigned the governorship on January 31 and was succeeded by Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer.[4] Colyer was eligible to seek a full term and announced his candidacy prior to becoming Governor of Kansas. In the August 7 primary, Colyer ran against CPA and incumbent Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer, Topeka doctor and 2006 Republican Kansas gubernatorial nominee Jim Barnett, and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.

On August 7, 2018, Kobach defeated Colyer in the Republican gubernatorial primary by an initial margin of 191 votes,[5] a lead that increased to 361 votes by August 14, although discrepancies in some counties needed resolution and provisional and absentee ballots may not have been counted in some counties.[6][7][8] Colyer conceded the Republican nomination after the final votes were tallied, in which Kobach's margin grew slightly.[9] State Senator Laura Kelly easily won the Democratic nomination[10] and won the general election, assuming office on January 14, 2019. Businessman Greg Orman, who finished second as an independent in the 2014 U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, ran for governor as an independent candidate.[11]

Given that Kansas is the only state which has no gubernatorial statutory qualifications whatsoever in its constitution, seven teenagers, including one who has never even been to the state of Kansas, ran for the office in this election cycle.[12] A debate took place on September 5 between the three candidates that consistently polled above 5%.[13] Polls in late August had Kelly and Kobach running close with Orman polling in the single digits.[14]

Kelly's win continued a streak of party turnover for governor of Kansas, as Kansas has not elected two consecutive governors of the same party since William Avery succeeded fellow Republican John Anderson Jr. following the 1964 election, and neither major party has held the governorship for longer than eight consecutive years since Republican John McCuish left office in 1957.[15]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Endorsements

Jeff Colyer
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jim
Barnett 		Jeff
Colyer 		Wink
Hartman 		Kris
Kobach 		Ken
Selzer 		Other Undecided
Remington (R) August 3–5, 2018 2,769 ± 2.0% 14% 34% – 32% 9% 3%[38] 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R) July 30 – August 2, 2018 1,546 ± 2.4% 11% 36% – 43% 5% 4%[38] –
Remington (R) August 2, 2018 859 ± 3.3% 13% 32% – 32% 9% 3%[38] 11%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) July 24–26, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 11% 25% – 34% 8% 2%[39] 20%
Remington (R) May 14–15, 2018 1,441 ± 2.6% 9% 29% – 27% 5% – 30%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach) March 15–17, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 10% 18% – 31% 4% – 36%
Remington (R) February 13–14, 2018 1,806 ± 2.3% 8% 23% 5% 21% 3% 3%[40] 37%
Moore Information (R) February 11, 2018 – – – 20% 6% 26% 11% – 38%

Results

County results
  Kobach
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Colyer
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  Kobach/Colyer tie
  •   40-50%
  Selzer
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results[41]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kris Kobach 128,838 40.62
Republican Jeff Colyer (incumbent) 128,488 40.51
Republican Jim Barnett 27,993 8.83
Republican Ken Selzer 24,807 7.82
Republican Patrick Kucera 3,212 1.01
Republican Tyler Ruzich 2,276 0.72
Republican Joseph Tutera Jr. 1,559 0.49
Total votes 317,173 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Josh Svaty
Statewide and local politicians

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Arden
Andersen 		Jack
Bergeson 		Carl
Brewer 		Laura
Kelly 		Josh
Svaty 		Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Kelly) Archived June 21, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 5–7, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 3% 2% 22% 35% 12% 25%
– – 25% 44% 12% 20%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Laura
Kelly 		Josh
Svaty 		Jim
Ward 		Undecided
Expedition Strategies (D-Ward) March 4–8, 2018 – ± 4.4% 17% 7% 19% 57%
Moore Information (R) February 11, 2018 – – 39% – 20% 42%

Results

County results
  Kelly
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70-80%
  Brewer
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Svaty
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Laura Kelly 78,746 51.5
Democratic Carl Brewer 30,693 20.1
Democratic Josh Svaty 26,722 17.5
Democratic Arden Andersen 12,845 8.4
Democratic Jack Bergeson 3,850 2.5
Total votes 152,856 100.0

Independent candidates

Candidates

On the ballot

Write-in

Failed to qualify

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominated

Withdrew

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[79] Tossup October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[80] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[81] Tossup November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[82] Tossup November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[84] Tossup November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[85] Tossup November 5, 2018
Fox News[86][a] Tossup November 5, 2018
Politico[87] Tossup November 5, 2018
Governing[88] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

Dates Location Kelly Kobach Orman Link
September 6, 2018 Overland Park, Kansas Participant Participant Participant Full debate - YouTube
October 30, 2018 Wichita, Kansas Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Laura Kelly (D)
Federal politicians
Statewide and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers and news websites
Kris Kobach (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Greg Orman (I)
Organisations

Polling

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kris
Kobach
(R) 		Laura
Kelly
(D) 		Greg
Orman
(I) 		Jeff
Caldwell
(L) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College October 26–28, 2018 976 ± 3.3% 44% 43% 8% – 1% 4%
Ipsos October 17–27, 2018 986 ± 3.6% 41% 43% 9% – 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies) October 19–20, 2018 698 ± 3.7% 41% 41% 10% 2% 0%[138] 6%
Remington (R) Archived October 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 30 – October 1, 2018 1,680 ± 2.4% 41% 42% 10% 2% 1%[139] 4%
Emerson College September 26–28, 2018 938 ± 3.5% 37% 36% 9% – 3% 15%
Fort Hays State University August 22 – September 25, 2018 324 – 36% 40% 10% – 5% –
Civiqs (D-Crawford County Dems) September 21–24, 2018 1,178 ± 3.4% 39% 41% 9% 5% 0%[138] 5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Pottawatomie County Dems) September 12–13, 2018 618 – 39% 38% 9% 1% 2%[140] 12%
Public Policy Polling (D-KNEA PAC) August 24–26, 2018 877 – 39% 38% 9% 1% 2%[140] 11%
Remington (R) July 19–20, 2018 1,189 ± 2.9% 35% 36% 12% – – 17%
Hypothetical polling
with Kris Kobach and Laura Kelly
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kris
Kobach (R) 		Laura
Kelly (D) 		Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) October 2018 785 ± 3.1% 49% 47% –
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies) October 17–21, 2018 698 ± 3.7% 44% 48% 8%
Public Policy Polling September 12–13, 2018 618 – 47% 46% 8%
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) August 2018 – – 46% 46% 8%
with Kris Kobach and Greg Orman
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kris
Kobach (R) 		Greg
Orman (I) 		Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) October 2018 785 ± 3.1% 43% 49% –
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund) August 2018 – – 40% 53% 8%
with Jeff Colyer
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Colyer (R) 		Laura
Kelly (D) 		Greg
Orman (I) 		Undecided
Remington (R) July 19–20, 2018 1,189 ± 2.9% 38% 28% 10% 24%
with generic Republican, Democrat, and Independent
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Independent 		Undecided
Remington (R) July 19–20, 2018 1,189 ± 2.9% 47% 35% 8% 10%

Results

Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018[141]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Laura Kelly 506,727 48.01% +1.88%
Republican Kris Kobach 453,645 42.98% -6.84%
Independent Greg Orman 68,590 6.50% N/A
Libertarian Jeff Caldwell 20,020 1.90% -2.15%
Independent Rick Kloos 6,584 0.62% N/A
Total votes 1,055,566 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Kelly won two of four congressional districts, including one that was carried by a Republican in the concurrent congressional elections.[142]

District Kelly Kobach Orman Representative
1st 37% 51% 9% Roger Marshall
2nd 51% 41% 5% Lynn Jenkins (115th Congress)
Steve Watkins (116th Congress)
3rd 56% 37% 5% Kevin Yoder (115th Congress)
Sharice Davids (116th Congress)
4th 44.7% 45.4% 8% Ron Estes

Maps

References

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  110. ^ "Kansas – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org.
  111. ^ Ramirez, Emil; Juarez, Jody (May 22, 2018). "USW Endorses Laura Kelly for Kansas Governor". United Steelworkers.
  112. ^ Schriock, Stephanie (May 3, 2018). "EMILY's List Endorses Laura Kelly for Governor of Kansas". www.emilyslist.org.
  113. ^ "Kansas Equality PAC Announces Primary Gubernatorial Endorsements | Equality Kansas". eqks.org. July 10, 2018. Our primary endorsements are Laura Kelly for the Democratic primary
  114. ^ "Kansas". PPGP Votes. Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved August 16, 2018.
  115. ^ Lubow, Craig (September 14, 2018). "PRESS RELEASE: SIERRA CLUB ENDORSES LAURA KELLY - Kansas Sierra Club" (PDF). Kansas Sierra Club.
  116. ^ "The Star endorses the one clear choice for Kansas governor". kansascity. The Kansas City Star. October 31, 2018.
  117. ^ Board, The Editorial Advisory (August 4, 2018). "Editorial: For Democrats, Laura Kelly is experienced choice". The Topeka Capital. the Editorial Advisory Board.
  118. ^ "The Eagle's endorsement for the Democratic gubernatorial primary". Wichita Eagle Editorial Board. The Wichita Eagle. July 29, 2018.
  119. ^ Kris W. Kobach. "It was my honor to work with former Attorney General John Ashcroft at the Justice Department to secure our country. Thank you General Ashcroft for your support of my campaign. You can watch the video here. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  120. ^ Pence, Mike (August 15, 2018). "Congratulations to @KrisKobach1787 on his primary victory in the governor's race in Kansas. Kris ran a great campaign in a competitive primary with a good man, @drjeffcolyer. We look forward to campaigning to victory with him in November!".
  121. ^ Trump, Donald J. (August 6, 2018). "Kris Kobach, a strong and early supporter of mine, is running for Governor of the Great State of Kansas. He is a fantastic guy who loves his State and our Country - he will be a GREAT Governor and has my full & total Endorsement! Strong on Crime, Border & Military. VOTE TUESDAY!".
  122. ^ Trump, Donald J. (August 15, 2018). "My friend and very early supporter Kris Kobach won the Republican Nomination for Governor of Kansas last night in a tough race against a very fine opponent. Kris will win in November and be a great Governor. He has my complete and total Endorsement!".
  123. ^ Kris W. Kobach. "Sen. Pat Roberts is a fighter for Kansas families and farmers and I am honored to have his endorsement. He knows it is important for KS to have a governor who will work with President Trump to make KS an affordable place to do business, create jobs & raise a family. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  124. ^ Kris W. Kobach. "Thank you Rep. @RonEstesKS for your endorsement! You've worked hard as state treasurer & in Congress to return money to taxpayers, including with the Trump tax cuts. We share the same Kansas values and I look forward to working with you so we can grow Kansas. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  125. ^ Shorman, Jonathan (May 16, 2018). "Kobach campaign shake-up: Consultant, aide are out as race intensifies". The Wichita Eagle.
  126. ^ Woodall, Hunter; Lowry, Bryan (August 16, 2018). "In a few hours, Gov. Colyer went from prepping for a recount to endorsing his rival". Kansas City Star.
  127. ^ https://twitter.com/KrisKobach1787/status/1029537682886680576[dead link]
  128. ^ Kris W. Kobach. "Thank you Goodland Mayor Brian Linin for your endorsement today during the #RemainRed bus tour stop in Goodland. You have positioned Goodland for long term success and I look forward to working with you as governor! #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  129. ^ Ryan, Courtney (July 25, 2018). "Senate leaders weigh in on Kansas governor's race". KSN.com. Archived from the original on July 26, 2018. Retrieved July 26, 2018.
  130. ^ Kris W. Kobach. "America's Toughest Sheriff, Joe Arpaio, endorses #TeamKobach. #ksleg #ksgov". Twitter.
  131. ^ "Ann Coulter on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved May 24, 2018.
  132. ^ Dulle, Brian (November 8, 2017). "Fox News' Sean Hannity endorses Kobach for Kansas governor". KSNT. Retrieved November 10, 2017.
  133. ^ Starling, Nick (June 24, 2018). "Ted Nugent campaigns with KS Gov candidate Kris Kobach". Retrieved July 30, 2018.
  134. ^ Woodall, Hunter (October 16, 2017). "Donald Trump Jr. coming to Kansas to campaign for Kobach". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved November 10, 2017.
  135. ^ "KANSAS CHAMBER PAC ENDORSES IN GOVERNOR AND ATTORNEY GENERAL RACES". Kansas Chamber. October 17, 2018.
  136. ^ Kite, Allison (August 31, 2018). "Kris Kobach wins support from labor union that previously backed Democrats". The Kansas City Star.
  137. ^ "NRA Endorses Kobach for Kansas Governor". NRA-ILA. September 21, 2018. Archived from the original on September 21, 2018. ...the National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) today endorsed Kris Kobach for governor of Kansas.
  138. ^ a b Rick Kloos (I) with 0%
  139. ^ Rick Kloos (I) with 1%
  140. ^ a b Rick Kloos (I) with 2%
  141. ^ Sarhan Basem. "2018 General Election Official Vote Totals" (PDF). Kansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 6, 2023.
  142. ^ "Daily Kos".

External links

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Notable third-party performances in United States elections
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