2018 VP₁ is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 2 meters (7 feet) in diameter. The asteroid had a 0.41% chance (1 in 240) of impacting Earth on 2 November 2020 01:12 UT.^[3] It was discovered on 3 November 2018 when it was about 0.003 AU (450,000 km; 280,000 mi) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 165 degrees. The asteroid has a short 12.9 day observation arc. It was last observed on 16 November 2018 by the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope at apparent magnitude 26 pushing the telescope close to the limiting magnitude.

The JPL Horizons 2 November 2020 nominal Earth approach was estimated as roughly 0.0028 AU (420,000 km; 260,000 mi).^[2] The line of variations (LOV, uncertainty region^[4]) allowed the asteroid to impact Earth^[a] or pass as far away as 0.025 AU (3,700,000 km; 2,300,000 mi).^[2] Its diameter of 2–4 meters makes it approximately 100–1000 times less massive than the 20-meter Chelyabinsk meteor.^[b] An Earth-impact by this asteroid, assuming it is a common primitive chondrite, might rattle some windows after an airburst and/or drop pebble-sized meteorites on roof tops after dark flight.^[5]

Preliminarily results are that nothing was detected via infrasound or atmospheric flash monitors.^[6] The asteroid was not visually recovered.

Return

2018 VP₁ has a low 3.2° orbital inclination with respect to the ecliptic plane and an Earth-MOID of only 9700 km.^[2] Since the asteroid approached Earth in November 2018 and has a 2.00 year orbital period, the asteroid approached Earth again around 2 November 2020 (±3 days).^[2][c] Where Earth will be on a given date is known. However, given the short observation arc and the two years since it was seen at all, the location of the asteroid along its orbit was imprecisely known.

The asteroid intersected Earth's orbit. A slight variation in the known orbit of the asteroid can cause it to be early (NEODyS solution), right on time (Sentry solution), or late (JPL solution).^[d] The nominal NEODyS 1 November 2020 23:54 UT Earth approach is 0.0004 AU (60,000 km; 37,000 mi).^[7] The Sentry Risk Table showed an estimated 1 in 240 chance of Earth impact on 2 November 2020 1:12 UT.^[3] The nominal JPL Horizons 2 November 2020 11:33 UT Earth approach was 0.0028 AU (420,000 km; 260,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 4 million km.^[2]

Animation of 2018 VP1's orbit

Around the Sun – close approach in 2018 and 2020

Around the Earth – close approach in 2018

Around the Earth – assumed close approach in 2020, but numerous other solutions fit

  Sun ·    Earth ·    2018 VP1 ·    Moon

Impact line

The line of variation (LOV) passed across the Pacific Ocean.^[8]

The asteroid came to opposition (opposite the Sun in the sky) at the end of May 2020 at an estimated apparent magnitude of ~31,^[9] and as a moving object was much too faint for any telescope to detect. Large ground-based observatories take 10 hours to image a magnitude ~28 object. The Hubble Space Telescope needs 3 weeks of exposure time to image magnitude 31 objects. The November 2020 Earth approach was expected be hidden by the glare of the Sun due to the asteroid's low solar elongation in that time.^[9]

Since the asteroid is only about 2 meters (7 feet) in diameter it is too small to do more than create a bolide and common strewn field similar to the Sutter's Mill meteorite or 2014 AA.^[10]

It is not categorized as a potentially hazardous object given the estimated size is smaller than the threshold for potentially hazardous objects which are estimated at more than 140 meters in diameter.