The election was held in three phases for a total of 243 seats:- the first for 71 seats on 28 October 2020, the second for 94 seats on 3 November 2020, and the third for the remaining 78 seats on 7 November 2020. The counting of votes began on 10 November 2020 and the incumbent National Democratic Alliance emerged as the winner with 125 elected MLAs, whereas the principal opposition coalition of Mahagathbandhan won 110 seats.[1] Other minor coalitions and parties won 7 seats while only 1 newly elected MLA was an independent.[2]
Outlined in Article 168 of the Constitution of India, the Bihar Legislative Assembly is the lower house of the bicameral legislature of Bihar and not a permanent body and subject to dissolution.[5] The tenure of the Legislative Assembly is five years from the date appointed for its first sitting unless dissolved sooner. Members of the Legislative Assembly are directly elected by the people. The Tenure of current Bihar Legislative Assembly is scheduled to end on 29 November 2020.[6]
The main issue was that of the jobs and the economy. Bihar, for a long time, has been an economically backward state and sends large numbers of migrant laborers to cities across the country. Due to the coronavirus pandemic lockdown, thousands of migrant laborers were forced to return to their home states due to lack of work, and Bihar was one of the most affected by the ensuing humanitarian crisis. Many of these workers blamed the current government for not having jobs for them in the first place, and not providing jobs when the lockdown started. There was also a significant anti-incumbency wave against Nitish, who had been CM for 15 years.[8]
Issues such as the lack of employment, alleged politicisation of flood relief in the aftermath of the 2019 Bihar floods and alleged inability of the state government to handle the COVID-19 pandemic were expected to be made an election issue by the opposition parties.[10][11] The limited digital connectivity in Bihar and the migrant crisis were among the issues which may have had an impact on campaigning and poll outcomes.[11][12]
The death of the former Lok Janshakti Party president and union cabinet minister, Ram Vilas Paswan on 8 October 2020 was also speculated to have an effect on the prospects of the competing parties.[13]
It was reported that the BJP accorded special focus on the politically significant Mithila region which comprises 22 of the 38 districts of the state including Darbhanga, Madhubani, Supaul, Araria, Purnia, Katihar and Samastipur.[14]
Schedule
On 25 September, Election Commission of India announced the dates for Bihar Assembly elections.[15]
During the campaigning phase in August 2020, the alliance was re-joined by the Hindustani Awam Morcha which held one seat in the legislature.[22] Later, the alliance was also joined in by the Vikassheel Insaan Party in October 2020.[23] The campaign however faced problems with persistent attacks on the Janata Dal (United) by the Lok Janshakti Party.[24][25]Chirag Paswan, the leader of the party in the state was called to Delhi to negotiate with the national leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party, in the end the Lok Janshakti Party quit the alliance stating that they would contest all seats against the Janata Dal (United) but not against the Bharatiya Janata Party.[26][27] Following the development, several notable leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party including the state vice president and 2 sitting legislators joined the Lok Janshakti Party to contest against Janata Dal (United) candidates.[28][29] Later during the campaigning period in October 2020, the Bharatiya Janata Party officially cut ties with the Lok Janshakti Party stating that the National Democratic Alliances in Bihar consisted of the four parties.[30][31][32]
According to political analysts the Lok Janshakti Party was unlikely to make any electoral gains but would act as spoilers for the Janata Dal (United) candidates,[33] the development was suggested to have been orchestrated by the Bharatiya Janata Party to gain leverage over the Janata Dal (United) by reducing its final tally.[38] The Bharatiya Janata Party at the time re-asserted that Nitish Kumar would remain the chief ministerial face of the alliance.[39][40]
Both the Lok Janshakti Party and the Janata Dal (United) are expected to hold sway among certain sections of Scheduled caste voters while the Bharatiya Janta Party are expected to draws its support base from Forward caste voters.[41][42]
The Janata Dal (United) though relied upon its core voters by giving importance to its Luv-Kush equation in ticket distribution, also gave good representation to the forward castes and EBCs. For 115 seats which it contested 17 forward caste were given party tickets while the Koeri and Kurmi candidates got 17 and 7 seats respectively. The EBCs on the other hand contested on 21 seats out of 115.[43]
In the previous election, the Mahagathbandhan formed and initially comprised the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (United) and the Indian National Congress.[17] It was able to form government following the election but the government fell when the Janata Dal (United) switched sides and joined the National Democratic Alliance.[19] In the opposition, the alliance was joined in by smaller parties like the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, the Hindustan Awami Morcha and the Vikassheel Insaan Party.[51][21][52] The three parties however opted out of the alliance between August–October 2020.[53][54][55] In September 2020, the Samajwadi Party which had contested in previous elections in Bihar without success, declared that they would not contest this time and instead support the Rashtriya Janata Dal.[56]
In the meantime, the alliance after negotiations were joined in by the left–wing parties in Bihar; namely the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation, the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist).[57][58] The new arrangement was described as an experiment beyond the caste based politics in Bihar with a caste plus class strategy.[59] The communist parties in Bihar had historically held a large presence in the state that was reduced following the Mandal Commission, the Liberation group had retained some of its former base and had emerged as the largest non alliance party in the previous election.[60]
The seat sharing agreement was finalised on 3 October 2020 with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha included in the alliance.[61] On 7 October, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha opted out of the alliance in Bihar over disagreements on seat sharing while maintaining that they will continue to uphold their alliance in the state of Jharkhand.[62]
There are a number of other smaller parties and coalitions contesting the election,[71] the prospects and impact of these formations have been noted to be marginal.[71][72] As of January 2020, there were 120 unrecognised registered parties in Bihar.[72][73]
In the meantime, the UDA which was the front led by Yashwant Sinha had reportedly fallen apart as various members of the constituent parties had defected to join the mainstream regional and national parties.[68] Other notable parties that are contesting independent of an alliance, are the Lok Janshakti Party on 134 seats, the Loktantrik Janata Dal on 51 seats, the Shiv Sena on 30–40 seats and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha on 7 seats.[26][76][77][62]
Polling official administering indelible ink to a voter, at a polling booth, during the first phase of the Bihar Assembly Election, at New Madhya Vidyalaya, in Gaya, Bihar on October 28, 2020.Voters standing in the queue to cast their votes, at a polling booth, during the first phase of the Bihar Assembly Election, at New Madhya Vidyalaya, in Gaya, Bihar on October 28, 2020.
The elections were conducted amid the COVID-19 pandemic with the necessary guidelines issued by the Election Commission of India.[92] The election will consist of both, virtual and physical campaigns. The authorities also passed the guidelines over limited people to be involved in the rallies. Due to COVID-19, the polling time will be increased by one hour and will now be from 7am to 6pm, except in Naxalite–Maoist insurgency affected areas.[93][94] As per guidelines, maximum number of voters per polling station was reduced from 1,500 to 1,000. Arrangements were made for 7 lakh units of hand sanitisers, 46 lakh masks, 6 lakh PPE kits, 6.7 lakh face shields, and 23 lakh single use gloves.[92]
Voting
The overall voter turnout in this election has been 57.05%, which is 0.39% more than the 56.66% in 2015 assembly polls. In these elections, 59.58% of females voted compared to a 54.68% voter turnout of males.[95]
Phase 1
A total of 1,066 candidates, including 952 male and 114 female, contested in the first phase of elections from different constituencies.[96][97] The maximum number of candidates contesting from one constituency in the first phase was being at Gaya Town with 27 candidates and the minimum at Katoria with 5 candidates in Banka district.[97] In the constituencies voting in the first phase of elections, approximately 2.15 crore registered electors were eligible to exercise their vote, out of which around 1.12 crore were male, 1.01 crore were female and 599 were categorised as the third gender.[96][98]
The first phase of elections recorded a voter turnout of 55.68%.[99] The male and female voter turnout for the first phase was 56.8% and 54.4% respectively.[100] In the previous assembly election in 2015, the voter turnout was 54.94% for these constituencies.[99]
Phase 2
In the second phase of elections, 1463 candidates contested the elections, of which 1315 candidates were male, 147 candidates were female and 1 candidate belonged to the transgender community.[101]
The elections was held on 3 November.[102] Voter turnout for the 2nd phase was over 55.7%.[103]
Phase 3
In the third phase of elections, 1094 male candidates and 110 female candidates contested the elections for 78 Seats, out of a total of 23.5 Million eligible voters for this phase total of 12.3 Million were Male and 11.2 Million were female voters.[104]
The elections were held on 7 November 2020 and the total Voting turnout was recorded 59.94%, which was highest among all three phases.[105]
Though the LJP could win only one seat (Matihani) on its own, but it caused much harm to the NDA. Of the 54 seats where it dented margins, JD(U) was hurt the most. Data shows that on 25 seats, where JD(U) came second, LJP had more votes than the victory margin.[121]
The constituencies with higher female turnout than male, the NDA was in lead. Out of the 125 seats that NDA won, 99 were constituencies where female turnout was more than their male counterparts.[122] About 20% of the seats, the margin of victory was less than 2.5% of the votes polled.[123] The NDA won 21 seats with a less than 2.5% vote margin, while the Mahagathbandhan won in 22 such seats.[123]
After the election process concluded, Chief MinisterNitish Kumar tendered his resignation to the Governor on 13 November 2020.[126] The National Democratic Alliance members met at around 12:30 pm IST, on 15 November to formally announce and elect the new Chief Minister.[126][127]Nitish Kumar was elected leader of the NDA and Chief Minister in the meeting.[128] After being elected as the NDA leader in Bihar, Nitish said that he did not want to become the chief minister of the state and wanted someone from the BJP party to become the next chief minister. However he accepted the designation on the insistence of the BJP.[129] Soon after, Nitish visited the Governor to stake claim to form the new government.[130]
Reactions and analysis
After the election results were announced, the incumbent Chief Minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar thanked the Prime Minister of IndiaNarendra Modi for his contribution and support to the National Democratic Alliance in the election campaign.[131]Narendra Modi himself declared victory and quoted “Democracy has once again won in Bihar.”[132][133]
Following the results, Tejashwi claimed to have "won 130 seats" and that "the mandate was in our favour, but the Election Commission’s results were declared in favour of NDA". He claimed, that the MGB "lost about 20 seats" because of "irregularities" in counting of postal ballots[134] and threatened to move to court.[135][136] The Election Commission termed the claims unfounded, adding that, according to procedure, the postal ballots including the invalid ones were re-verified where the margin of victory was less than the number of rejected ballots.[136][137] Tejashwi also claimed that NDA won by "money, muscle power and deceit".[138][139] Later the Election Commission claimed that it had counted random voter-verified paper audit trail which matched the EVM count.[140]
The Time magazine called the victory as a triumph for Modi's "Hindu Nationalist Message".[141] According to analysts BJP has become more significant in the state than before.[142] The 14th Dalai Lama congratulated Nitish on his election victory.[143]
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