2020 United States Senate election in Iowa
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Nominee Joni Ernst Theresa Greenfield
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 864,997 754,859
Percentage 51.74% 45.15%
Ernst:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Greenfield:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Joni Ernst
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Joni Ernst
Republican

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The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.[1]

Most experts and pollsters considered this race and the concurrent presidential race as a tossup due to incumbent president Donald Trump's low approval ratings and Ernst's own popularity dropping in polls, partly due to a viral moment in a debate where she did not know the price of corn.[2] Despite this, Ernst was reelected by a larger-than-expected 6.6 points, while Trump simultaneously won the state with a similarly unexpected margin of victory. Ernst carried an overwhelming majority of the state's counties including many rural ones, while Greenfield carried only eight counties: Polk, Linn, Scott, Johnson, Black Hawk, Story, Cerro Gordo and Jefferson.[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Joni Ernst
Organizations

Result

Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joni Ernst (incumbent) 226,589 98.64%
Republican Write-In 3,132 1.36%
Total votes 229,721 100.00%


Democratic primary

On June 2, 2020, Theresa Greenfield won the Democratic primary with 47.71% of the vote, defeating three other major candidates, including Michael Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy.[11][12][13][14][15]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Debates

Host

network

Date Link(s) Participants
Theresa

Greenfield

Michael

T. Franken

Kimberly

Graham

Eddie

Mauro

Iowa PBS May 18, 2020 [38] Present Present Present Present

Endorsements

Michael Franken
Federal officials
  • Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (2013–2015) and U.S. Senator from Nebraska (1997–2009)[39] (Republican)
Kimberly Graham
Individuals
Organizations
Theresa Greenfield
Federal officials
State officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Michael
Franken 		Kimberly
Graham 		Theresa
Greenfield 		Eddie
Mauro 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 5–6, 2020 849 (V) – 12% 4% 43% 4% 36%
Emerson College October 13–16, 2019 317 (LV) ± 5.5% 6% 4% 11% 6% 74%

Results

County results
Results by county:
  Greenfield—70–80%
  Greenfield—60–70%
  Greenfield—50–60%
  Greenfield—40–50%
  Greenfield—<40%
  Franken—<40%
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Theresa Greenfield 132,001 47.71%
Democratic Michael T. Franken 68,851 24.88%
Democratic Kimberly Graham 41,554 15.02%
Democratic Eddie Mauro 30,400 10.99%
Democratic Cal Woods (withdrawn) 3,372 1.21%
Democratic Write-In 514 0.19%
Total votes 276,692 100.00%

Other candidates

Rick Stewart, the Libertarian nominee

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Independents

Declared

General election

Major media described the campaign as one of the most likely to decide control of the Senate after the 2020 election.[58][59] Polls conducted after the primary showed a close contest between Greenfield and Ernst, with neither candidate leading by more than 4 points.[60][61][62][63]

Through June 2020, Greenfield had raised $11.5 million, compared to $14.6 million for Ernst but by September, Greenfield had pulled ahead, raising $40.0 million compared to $21.6 million for Ernst.[64][65][66] The race was expected to be the most expensive in the state's history,[67] and the second most expensive Senate race in the United States, after the 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina, where Cal Cunningham challenged Thom Tillis.[68]

Debate

Host Date & time Link(s) Participants
Joni Ernst (R) Theresa Greenfield (D)
Iowa Press Debates September 28, 2020 [69] Present Present

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[70] Tossup October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[71] Tossup October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] Lean R November 2, 2020
Politico[73] Tossup November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[74] Tossup October 30, 2020
RCP[75] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[76] Tossup November 3, 2020
538[77] Tossup November 2, 2020
Economist[78] Tossup November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Joni Ernst (R)
Organizations
Theresa Greenfield (D)
Federal officials
State and local officials
Individuals
Unions
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

Aggregate polling

Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Theresa Greenfield Joni Ernst Other/Undecided[b] Margin
Real Clear Politics November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 45.8% 47.2% 7.0% Ernst +1.4
270 to Win November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.6%

47.0%

6.4% Ernst +0.4
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joni
Ernst (R) 		Theresa
Greenfield (D) 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2020 871 (V) – 47% 48% 5%
Change Research October 29 – November 1, 2020 1,084 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 48% 4%[c]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 29 – November 1, 2020 853 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 50% 2%[d]
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 49% 6%[e]
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 604 (LV) ± 3.9% 48%[f] 51% 2%[g]
InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A] October 30, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 45% 4%[h]
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register October 26–29, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% 11%[i]
Quinnipiac University October 23–27, 2020 1,225 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 46% 1%[j]
RABA Research October 21–24, 2020 693 (LV) ± 4% 45% 51% –
Emerson College October 19–21, 2020 435 (LV) ± 4.7% 51%[f] 46% 3%[k]
RMG Research Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 15–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43%[l] 46% 10%[m]
41%[n] 48% 10%[m]
45%[o] 45% 10%[m]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 753 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 44% 12%[p]
Insider Advantage (R) Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A] October 18–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 48% 8%[q]
Monmouth University October 15–19, 2020 501 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 5%[r]
501 (LV)[s] 47% 49% –
501 (LV)[t] 45% 51% –
Data for Progress (D) October 8–11, 2020 822 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 47% 10%[u]
YouGov/CBS October 6–9, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% 10%[v]
Opinion Insight (R)[B] October 5–8, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 47%[f] 45% 8%[w]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 3–6, 2020 756 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 49% 6%[x]
Quinnipiac University October 1–5, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 50% 5%[j]
Data for Progress (D) September 23–28, 2020 743 (LV) ± 3.6% 42%[l] 44% 14%[y]
45%[z] 46% 9%[aa]
Hart Research Associates (D)[C] September 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 48% –
RABA Research September 23–26, 2020 780 (LV) ± 4% 39% 51% –
Monmouth University September 18–22, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 47% 47% 5%[ab]
402 (LV)[s] 46% 49% 5%[ac]
402 (LV)[t] 47% 48% 5%[ac]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 16–22, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.99% 40% 42% 19%[ad]
Selzer/Des Moines Register September 14–17, 2020 658 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 45% 12%[ae]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[D] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 45% 5%[af]
Opinion Insight (R)[B] August 30 – September 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 49%[f] 43% 7%[ag]
Public Policy Polling August 13–14, 2020 729 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 48% 8%[ah]
Monmouth University July 30 – August 3, 2020 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 48% 45% 6%[ai]
401 (LV)[s] 48% 47% 6%[ai]
401 (LV)[t] 48% 47% 5%[aj]
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 1,101 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 45% 11%[ak]
RMG Research July 27–30, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 40% 24%[al]
Spry Strategies (R)[E] July 11–16, 2020 701 (LV) ± 3.7% 43% 45% 12%[am]
GQR Research (D)[F] June 23–28, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 49% 4%
Selzer/Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 674 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos June 6–8, 2020 865 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 48% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[G] June 3–4, 2020 963 (V) ± 3.4% 43% 45% 12%
Public Policy Polling April 30 – May 1, 2020 1,222 (V) ± 2.8% 43% 42% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[F] December 13–15, 2019 944 (V) ± 3.4% 47% 41% 12%
Emerson College October 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 40% 14%
Lake Research Partners (D)[H] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 34% –
Hypothetical polling
with Eddie Mauro
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joni
Ernst (R) 		Eddie
Mauro (D) 		Undecided
RABA Research/Eddie Mauro[H] May 7–9, 2020 632 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 42% –
Lake Research Partners (D)[H] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 58%[l] 33% –
49%[an] 44% –
with Joni Ernst and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joni
Ernst (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 29–30, 2019 780 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 44% –
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] June 30 – July 1, 2017 784 (V) ± 3.6% 48% 41% 12%
with Joni Ernst and Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joni
Ernst (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. March 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 31% 3%[ao] 26%[ap]
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)[H] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 41% –

Results

2020 United States Senate election in Iowa[99]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Joni Ernst (incumbent) 864,997 51.74% -0.36%
Democratic Theresa Greenfield 754,859 45.15% +1.39%
Libertarian Rick Stewart 36,961 2.21% +1.48%
Independent Suzanne Herzog 13,800 0.83% N/A
Write-in 1,211 0.07% -0.03%
Total votes 1,671,828 100.0%
Republican hold
By county
County[100] Joni Ernst
Republican 		Theresa Greenfield
Democratic 		Rick Stewart
Libertarian 		Suzanne Herzog
Independent 		Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Adair 2,809 67.78 1,207 29.13 89 2.15 36 0.87 3 0.07 1,602 38.66 4,144
Adams 1,497 69.34 594 27.51 46 2.13 19 0.88 3 0.14 903 41.82 2,159
Allamakee 4,478 61.04 2,602 35.47 175 2.39 80 1.09 1 0.01 1,876 25.57 7,336
Appanoose 4,189 65.60 1,956 30.63 168 2.63 71 1.11 2 0.03 2,233 34.97 6,386
Audubon 2,188 64.89 1,092 32.38 70 2.08 21 0.62 1 0.03 1,096 32.50 3,372
Benton 8,830 60.93 5,202 35.90 331 2.28 120 0.83 9 0.06 3,628 25.03 14,492
Black Hawk 29,222 44.27 34,963 52.96 1,301 1.97 490 0.74 37 0.06 -5,741 -8.70 66,013
Boone 8,315 54.74 6,316 41.58 385 2.53 167 1.10 7 0.05 1,999 13.16 15,190
Bremer 8,196 56.72 5,911 40.91 254 1.76 84 0.58 5 0.03 2,285 15.81 14,450
Buchanan 6,063 56.64 4,292 40.10 248 2.32 96 0.90 5 0.05 1,771 16.55 10,704
Buena Vista 4,724 59.09 3,022 37.80 166 2.08 75 0.94 7 0.09 1,702 21.29 7,994
Butler 5,291 66.06 2,474 30.89 173 2.16 69 0.86 2 0.02 2,817 35.17 8,009
Calhoun 3,513 67.40 1,531 29.37 129 2.48 32 0.61 7 0.13 1,982 38.03 5,212
Carroll 7,245 64.91 3,580 32.07 230 2.06 96 0.86 11 0.10 3,665 32.83 11,162
Cass 4,725 65.95 2,259 31.53 120 1.67 54 0.75 7 0.10 2,466 34.42 7,165
Cedar 5,935 56.30 4,300 40.79 226 2.14 74 0.70 6 0.06 1,635 15.51 10,541
Cerro Gordo 11,339 48.19 11,534 49.02 430 1.83 211 0.90 16 0.07 -195 -0.83 23,530
Cherokee 4,214 65.59 2,002 31.16 138 2.15 67 1.04 4 0.06 2,212 34.43 6,425
Chickasaw 4,024 61.16 2,324 35.32 159 2.42 71 1.08 2 0.03 1,700 25.84 6,580
Clarke 2,906 63.05 1,520 32.98 119 2.58 60 1.30 4 0.09 1,386 30.07 4,609
Clay 5,716 64.46 2,861 32.26 193 2.18 89 1.00 9 0.10 2,855 32.19 8,868
Clayton 5,845 61.37 3,434 36.06 157 1.65 82 0.86 6 0.06 2,411 25.31 9,524
Clinton 12,559 51.57 10,942 44.93 635 2.61 200 0.82 15 0.06 1,617 6.64 24,351
Crawford 4,424 63.12 2,336 33.33 160 2.28 80 1.14 9 0.13 2,088 29.79 7,009
Dallas 28,727 51.69 25,427 45.75 1,006 1.81 381 0.69 33 0.06 3,300 5.94 55,574
Davis 2,728 67.51 1,167 28.88 112 2.77 32 0.79 2 0.05 1,561 38.63 4,041
Decatur 2,439 65.21 1,165 31.15 90 2.41 43 1.15 3 0.08 1,274 34.06 3,740
Delaware 6,454 64.96 3,235 32.56 172 1.73 71 0.71 4 0.04 3,219 32.40 9,936
Des Moines 9,468 48.27 9,296 47.39 591 3.01 232 1.18 29 0.15 172 0.88 19,616
Dickinson 7,149 63.92 3,791 33.90 174 1.56 66 0.59 4 0.04 3,358 30.03 11,184
Dubuque 26,034 49.05 25,433 47.91 1,148 2.16 428 0.81 37 0.07 601 1.13 53,080
Emmet 2,965 61.81 1,637 34.13 147 3.06 47 0.98 1 0.02 1,328 27.68 4,797
Fayette 5,865 58.06 3,912 38.73 229 2.27 89 0.88 7 0.07 1,953 19.33 10,102
Floyd 4,181 52.45 3,498 43.88 187 2.35 98 1.23 8 0.10 683 8.57 7,972
Franklin 3,270 64.55 1,639 32.35 100 1.97 50 0.99 7 0.14 1,631 32.20 5,066
Fremont 2,563 67.31 1,099 28.86 89 2.34 56 1.47 1 0.03 1,464 38.45 3,808
Greene 3,063 61.36 1,784 35.74 104 2.08 39 0.78 2 0.04 1,279 25.62 4,992
Grundy 4,900 67.90 2,120 29.38 154 2.13 38 0.53 5 0.07 2,780 38.52 7,217
Guthrie 4,103 64.86 2,000 31.62 162 2.56 56 0.89 5 0.08 2,103 33.24 6,326
Hamilton 4,679 59.42 2,913 36.99 190 2.41 84 1.07 9 0.11 1,766 22.43 7,875
Hancock 4,004 65.86 1,881 30.94 130 2.14 60 0.99 5 0.08 2,123 34.92 6,080
Hardin 5,639 63.80 2,920 33.04 195 2.21 84 0.95 1 0.01 2,719 30.76 8,839
Harrison 5,059 63.10 2,574 32.10 253 3.16 118 1.47 14 0.17 2,485 30.99 8,018
Henry 5,875 60.12 3,457 35.38 310 3.17 116 1.19 14 0.14 2,418 24.74 9,772
Howard 2,716 55.36 2,014 41.05 118 2.41 58 1.18 0 0.00 702 14.31 4,906
Humboldt 3,671 69.74 1,443 27.41 108 2.05 40 0.76 2 0.04 2,228 42.33 5,264
Ida 2,757 72.23 964 25.26 66 1.73 28 0.73 2 0.05 1,793 46.97 3,817
Iowa 5,794 60.13 3,541 36.75 205 2.13 84 0.87 11 0.11 2,253 23.38 9,635
Jackson 6,175 56.58 4,249 38.94 366 3.35 118 1.08 5 0.05 1,926 17.65 10,913
Jasper 11,405 56.95 7,905 39.47 531 2.65 167 0.83 18 0.09 3,500 17.48 20,026
Jefferson 4,008 45.50 4,547 51.62 163 1.85 80 0.91 10 0.11 -539 -6.12 8,808
Johnson 23,773 28.77 57,063 69.06 1,382 1.67 373 0.45 42 0.05 -33,290 -40.29 82,633
Jones 6,320 57.97 4,237 38.86 273 2.50 68 0.62 4 0.04 2,083 19.11 10,902
Keokuk 3,565 68.39 1,489 28.56 101 1.94 53 1.02 5 0.10 2,076 39.82 5,213
Kossuth 5,957 66.14 2,799 31.08 193 2.14 57 0.63 0 0.00 3,158 35.07 9,006
Lee 8,489 51.29 7,445 44.98 485 2.93 122 0.74 11 0.07 1,044 6.31 16,552
Linn 53,248 42.10 69,125 54.66 3,188 2.52 815 0.64 90 0.07 -15,877 -12.55 126,466
Louisa 3,259 61.97 1,804 34.30 141 2.68 51 0.97 4 0.08 1,455 27.67 5,259
Lucas 3,105 68.32 1,302 28.65 99 2.18 36 0.79 3 0.07 1,803 39.67 4,545
Lyon 5,522 81.80 1,073 15.89 104 1.54 50 0.74 2 0.03 4,449 65.90 6,751
Madison 6,245 64.25 3,168 32.59 218 2.24 86 0.88 3 0.03 3,077 31.66 9,720
Mahaska 7,860 70.00 2,969 26.44 273 2.43 118 1.05 8 0.07 4,891 43.56 11,228
Marion 12,211 64.06 6,269 32.89 423 2.22 144 0.76 15 0.08 5,942 31.17 19,062
Marshall 9,057 50.68 8,187 45.81 442 2.47 165 0.92 21 0.12 870 4.87 17,872
Mills 5,347 65.54 2,544 31.18 177 2.17 82 1.01 8 0.10 2,803 34.36 8,158
Mitchell 3,347 57.69 2,282 39.33 124 2.14 49 0.84 0 0.00 1,065 18.36 5,802
Monona 3,054 65.47 1,455 31.19 108 2.32 39 0.84 9 0.19 1,599 34.28 4,665
Monroe 2,742 68.40 1,148 28.64 84 2.10 34 0.85 1 0.02 1,594 39.76 4,009
Montgomery 3,633 68.53 1,520 28.67 98 1.85 46 0.87 4 0.08 2,113 39.86 5,301
Muscatine 10,278 50.28 9,381 45.89 570 2.79 199 0.97 13 0.06 897 4.39 20,441
O'Brien 5,675 76.05 1,640 21.98 105 1.41 38 0.51 4 0.05 4,035 54.07 7,462
Osceola 2,525 77.38 657 20.13 49 1.50 31 0.95 1 0.03 1,868 57.25 3,263
Page 5,152 69.27 2,067 27.79 138 1.86 78 1.05 3 0.04 3,085 41.48 7,438
Palo Alto 3,113 63.12 1,677 34.00 106 2.15 36 0.73 0 0.00 1,436 29.12 4,932
Plymouth 10,145 72.26 3,587 25.55 219 1.56 77 0.55 11 0.08 6,558 46.71 14,039
Pocahontas 2,641 69.87 1,003 26.53 91 2.41 39 1.03 6 0.16 1,638 43.33 3,780
Polk 106,443 41.54 142,328 55.54 5,313 2.07 1,985 0.77 188 0.07 -35,885 -14.00 256,257
Pottawattamie 24,720 54.85 18,520 41.10 1,269 2.82 524 1.16 32 0.07 6,200 13.76 45,065
Poweshiek 5,361 53.38 4,381 43.62 202 2.01 91 0.91 8 0.08 980 9.76 10,043
Ringgold 1,870 69.36 732 27.15 75 2.78 16 0.59 3 0.11 1,138 42.21 2,696
Sac 3,849 70.17 1,440 26.25 129 2.35 60 1.09 7 0.13 2,409 43.92 5,485
Scott 42,941 46.88 45,751 49.94 2,139 2.33 709 0.77 66 0.07 -2,810 -3.07 91,606
Shelby 4,489 67.06 1,989 29.71 156 2.33 57 0.85 3 0.04 2,500 37.35 6,694
Sioux 15,785 83.54 2,828 14.97 192 1.02 81 0.43 9 0.05 12,957 68.57 18,895
Story 20,750 41.08 28,216 55.86 1,133 2.24 370 0.73 44 0.09 -7,466 -14.78 50,513
Tama 5,090 56.74 3,588 40.00 205 2.29 79 0.88 8 0.09 1,502 16.74 8,970
Taylor 2,337 72.80 762 23.74 83 2.59 28 0.87 0 0.00 1,575 49.07 3,210
Union 3,820 62.38 2,051 33.49 172 2.81 76 1.24 5 0.08 1,769 28.89 6,124
Van Buren 2,583 68.84 1,065 28.38 75 2.00 28 0.75 1 0.03 1,518 40.46 3,752
Wapello 8,464 55.15 6,344 41.33 394 2.57 132 0.86 14 0.09 2,120 13.81 15,348
Warren 17,276 56.27 12,478 40.64 692 2.25 234 0.76 23 0.07 4,798 15.63 30,703
Washington 6,773 58.12 4,519 38.78 262 2.25 95 0.82 5 0.04 2,254 19.34 11,654
Wayne 2,186 71.55 784 25.66 53 1.73 28 0.92 4 0.13 1,402 45.89 3,055
Webster 10,195 57.81 6,845 38.81 403 2.29 173 0.98 19 0.11 3,350 19.00 17,635
Winnebago 3,336 56.29 2,361 39.84 153 2.58 72 1.21 4 0.07 975 16.45 5,926
Winneshiek 6,039 50.49 5,581 46.66 218 1.82 118 0.99 4 0.03 458 3.83 11,960
Woodbury 24,175 54.27 18,674 41.92 994 2.23 629 1.41 72 0.16 5,501 12.35 44,544
Worth 2,425 55.40 1,803 41.19 98 2.24 46 1.05 5 0.11 622 14.21 4,377
Wright 3,889 62.85 2,063 33.34 158 2.55 76 1.23 2 0.03 1,826 29.51 6,188
Totals 864,997 51.74 754,859 45.15 36,961 2.21 13,800 0.83 1,211 0.07 110,138 6.59 1,671,828
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
District[99] Joni Ernst
Republican 		Theresa Greenfield
Democratic 		Rick Stewart
Libertarian 		Suzanne Herzog
Independent 		Write-in Margin Total votes Representative
(2020)
# % # % # % # % # % # %
1st district 206,559 49.48 197,792 47.72 9,454 2.26 3,231 0.77 267 0.06 8,767 2.10 417,483 Ashley Hinson
2nd district 199,741 49.17 193,588 47.65 9,426 2.32 3,197 0.79 295 0.07 6,153 1.51 406,247 Mariannette Miller-Meeks
3rd district 221,267 48.75 218,756 48.20 9,747 2.15 3,757 0.83 321 0.07 2,511 0.55 453,848 Cindy Axne
4th district 237,430 60.22 144,543 36.66 8,334 2.11 3,615 0.92 328 0.08 92,887 23.56 394,250 Randy Feenstra
Totals 864,997 51.74 754,859 45.15 36,961 2.21 13,800 0.83 1,211 0.07 110,138 6.59 1,671,828

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Center for American Greatness, a pro-Trump organization.
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The American Action Forum, which is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  5. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the End Citizens United, which has only supported Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling.
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Emily's List, an organization that supports Democratic female candidates.
  8. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Eddie Mauro campaign
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples
  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Stewart (L) with 2%; "Don't recall" and Undecided with 1%; Herzog (I) and would not vote with 0%
  4. ^ Stewart (L) and Undecided with 1%; Herzog (I) and "Someone else" with 0%
  5. ^ Herzog (I) with 3%; Stewart (L) with 2%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  6. ^ a b c d With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  8. ^ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  9. ^ "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" and "Undecided/do not remember" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  10. ^ a b "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  12. ^ a b c Standard VI response
  13. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  14. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  15. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  16. ^ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  17. ^ Stewart (L) with 5%; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  18. ^ Herzog (I), "No one" and Stewart (L) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  19. ^ a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  20. ^ a b c With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  21. ^ Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  23. ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
  24. ^ Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  25. ^ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  26. ^ If the only candidates were Ernst and Greenfield
  27. ^ Undecided with 9%
  28. ^ Stewart (L) with 1%; Herzog (I), "Other" and "No one" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  29. ^ a b Stewart (L) with 1; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  30. ^ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 14%
  31. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  32. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  33. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  34. ^ Undecided with 8%
  35. ^ a b Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  36. ^ Stewart (L) and Undecided with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%
  37. ^ "No one" with 11%
  38. ^ Undecided with 24%
  39. ^ "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 7%
  40. ^ Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Ernst and Mauro
  41. ^ Would not vote with 3%
  42. ^ "Would consider voting for someone else" with 20%; "unsure" with 6%

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Further reading

External links

Official campaign websites
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