2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
 
Nominee Mitch McConnell Amy McGrath
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,233,315 816,257
Percentage 57.76% 38.23%
McConnell:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%      >90%
McGrath:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40-50%      50%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Mitch McConnell
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican

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The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville.[1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early, a far greater number than usual.[2]

Despite much speculation about this race being potentially competitive and large amounts of money being poured in to try to defeat McConnell, he wound up winning a seventh term with his largest margin of victory since 2002, defeating McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points. He also won Elliott and Wolfe Counties for the first time, solidifying rural Kentucky's hard swing towards the GOP. This was the first election in which McConnell attained more than 1 million votes.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Results

Results by county:
  McConnell—>90%
  McConnell—80–90%
  McConnell—70–80%
Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 342,660 82.80%
Republican Wesley Morgan 25,588 6.18%
Republican Louis Grider 13,771 3.33%
Republican Paul John Frangedakis 11,957 2.89%
Republican Neren James 10,693 2.58%
Republican Kenneth Lowndes 5,548 1.34%
Republican Nicholas Alsager 3,603 0.87%
Total votes 413,820 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Representative Charles Booker placed second in the Democratic primary.

Withdrawn

Declined

Campaign

There were debates on March 5, 2020[33][34] and June 1, 2020.[35][36]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Charles
Booker 		Amy
McGrath 		Other Undecided
Data for Progress[A] June 10–22, 2020 556 (LV) – 43% 46% – 10%
Garin-Hart-Yang[B] June 16–18, 2020 – – 32% 42% – –
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 421 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 36% 9%[b] 11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] June 8–12, 2020 313 (RV) ± 7.0% 39% 49% 6%[c] 3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] May 2020 –[d] – 13% 62% – –
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] April 2020 –[d] – 11% 62% – –
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[C] January 2020 –[d] – 7% 65% – –

Endorsements

Charles Booker
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Newspapers
Unions
Organizations and political parties
Individuals
Mike Broihier
State and local officials from other states
  • Richard Ojeda, West Virginia State Senator for the 7th district (2016–2019); 2020 presidential and U.S. Senate candidate[49]
Individuals
Organizations
Amy McGrath
Organizations

Results

Results by county:
  McGrath—60–70%
  McGrath—50–60%
  McGrath—40–50%
  Booker—40–50%
  Booker—50–60%
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Amy McGrath 247,037 45.41%
Democratic Charles Booker 231,888 42.62%
Democratic Mike Broihier 27,175 4.99%
Democratic Mary Ann Tobin 11,108 2.04%
Democratic Maggie Joe Hilliard 6,224 1.14%
Democratic Andrew Maynard 5,974 1.10%
Democratic Bennie J. Smith 5,040 0.93%
Democratic Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) 3,629 0.67%
Democratic Eric Rothmuller 2,995 0.55%
Democratic John R. Sharpensteen 2,992 0.55%
Total votes 544,062 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate.[59][60] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[61]

Nominee

Reform Party

Withdrawn

Independents

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Despite record breaking fundraising from McGrath and speculation that the race could be competitive, McConnell was handily re-elected. Throughout the general election, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist" and made use of a comment from 2018 where McGrath compared her reaction to Trump being elected in 2016 to how she felt during the September 11 attacks.[65]

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[66] Likely R October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[67] Safe R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68] Likely R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[69] Safe R October 30, 2020
Politico[70] Likely R November 2, 2020
RCP[71] Likely R October 23, 2020
DDHQ[72] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[73] Safe R November 2, 2020
Economist[74] Likely R November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Amy McGrath (D)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Individuals
Organizations
Unions

Polling

Graphical summary

Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mitch
McConnell (R) 		Amy
McGrath (D) 		Brad
Barron (L) 		Other /
Undecided
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 23 – November 1, 2020 365 (LV) ± 7.9% 49% 46% 5% –
Morning Consult October 22–31, 2020 911 (LV) ± 3% 51% 40% – –
Bluegrass Community & Technical College Archived October 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 12–28, 2020 250 (RV) – 50% 40% – 10%[e]
Cygnal October 19–20, 2020 640 (LV) ± 3.9% 50% 40% 5% 5%[f]
Mason-Dixon October 12–15, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 51% 42% 4% 3%[g]
Morning Consult September 11–20, 2020 746 (LV) ± (2% – 7%) 52% 37% – –
Data for Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 807 (LV) ± 3.5% 46%[h] 39% 3% 12%[i]
48%[j] 41% – 11%[k]
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,164 (LV) ± 2.9% 53% 41% – 5%[l]
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 3, 2020 909 (RV) ± 3.3% 49% 44% – 7%[m]
Bluegrass Data (D) Archived August 9, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[D] July 25–29, 2020 3,020 (RV) ± 2.0% 49% 46% 4% –
Morning Consult July 24 – August 2, 2020 793 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 36% – 12%[n]
Spry Strategies (R)[E] July 11–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 55% 33% – 12%[i]
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) Archived July 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[B] July 7–12, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 41% 7% 7%[o]
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 53% 33% 4% 11%[p]
RMG Research[F] May 21–24, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 41% – 19%[q]
Bluegrass Data (D) Archived August 9, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[D] April 7–12, 2020[r] 4,000 (RV) – 40% 38% 7% –
Change Research (D)[B] January 17–21, 2020 1,281 (LV) ± 2.8% 41% 41% – 18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[B] January 8–13, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 40% – 17%
Fabrizio Ward[G] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% – 6%
Change Research (D)[B] June 15–16, 2019 1,629 (LV) – 47% 45% – 8%
Hypothetical polling
with Charles Booker
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mitch
McConnell (R) 		Charles
Booker (D) 		Other /
Undecided
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 52% 38% 9%[s]
with Jim Gray
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mitch
McConnell (R) 		Jim
Gray (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing June 11–12, 2019 741 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% 10%
with Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mitch
McConnell (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 14–15, 2020 1,104 (V) – 47% 44% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived February 25, 2019, at the Wayback Machine[H] Feb 11–12, 2019 748 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 42% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived December 9, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[I] Aug 15–16, 2017 645 (V) – 37% 44% 19%
on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 31% 62% 8%[t]
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived February 25, 2019, at the Wayback Machine[H] Feb 11–12, 2019 748 (RV) ± 3.6% 32% 61% 8%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal October 19–20, 2020 640 (LV) ± 3.9% 55% 39% 6%[u]
Quinnipiac University September 10–14, 2020 1,164 (LV) ± 2.9% 54% 38% 8%[v]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 42% 13%[w]

Results

McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3.[87] When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea, since, "at the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close."[88][89]

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky[90]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 1,233,315 57.76% +1.57%
Democratic Amy McGrath 816,257 38.23% -2.49%
Libertarian Brad Barron 85,386 4.00% +0.92%
Write-in 99 0.01% -0.00%
Total votes 2,135,057 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll released after the primary in July
  2. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by McGrath's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Booker's campaign
  4. ^ a b This poll's sponsor, Ditch Mitch Fund, supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
  5. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits, a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  8. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Ditch Mitch Fund
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
Voter samples
  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Broihier and "someone else" with 4%; Tobin with 1%
  3. ^ Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
  4. ^ a b c Not yet released
  5. ^ Undecided with 10%
  6. ^ Undecided with 5%
  7. ^ Undecided with 3%
  8. ^ Standard VI response
  9. ^ a b Undecided with 12%
  10. ^ If only McConnell and McGrath were candidates
  11. ^ Undecided with 11%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  14. ^ "Someone else" and Undecided with 6%
  15. ^ Undecided with 7%
  16. ^ "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
  17. ^ Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
  18. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  19. ^ Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
  20. ^ Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
  21. ^ Undecided with 6%
  22. ^ Undecided with 8%
  23. ^ Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%

References

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  2. ^ Tobin, Ben. "Kentucky sees fewer absentee ballot requests for general election than in the primary". The Courier-Journal.
  3. ^ Clark, Lesley; Desrochers, Daniel (June 13, 2018). "Mitch McConnell to Kentucky Gov. Bevin: Stay home and run for re-election". Miami Herald.
  4. ^ Beam, Adam (August 4, 2018). "McConnell announces re-elect campaign at Fancy Farm picnic". AP News.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i "Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell just got two more primary opponents". wdrb.com. December 18, 2019.
  6. ^ a b c d e f "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. September 21, 2020. Archived from the original on October 10, 2020. Retrieved October 12, 2020.
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  8. ^ a b c d e f g "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. June 2, 2020. Archived from the original on May 23, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
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  17. ^ "Bennie J Smith for Senate (D-KY) – Home". benniejsmith.com. Archived from the original on September 24, 2020. Retrieved October 1, 2020.
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  19. ^ "About the Candidate: Jimmy Ausbrooks – Jimmy Ausbrooks For Kentucky 2020 US Senate". Archived from the original on April 20, 2021. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
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  21. ^ "Home". Steve Cox for US Senate. Archived from the original on December 5, 2019. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
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  31. ^ "MATT JONES FOR KENTUCKY EXPLORATORY COMMITTEE". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
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  38. ^ Kobin, Billy. "Bernie Sanders, AOC endorse Charles Booker in Kentucky's US Senate primary". The Courier-Journal.
  39. ^ Jones, Sarah (June 16, 2020). "Things Are Not Going Well for Amy McGrath". New York Intelligencer. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
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  42. ^ Editorial Board, Herald-Leader (June 9, 2020). "Passion over pragmatism. Charles Booker gets our endorsement in U.S. Senate primary". Lexington Herald-Leader.
  43. ^ Editorial Board, Courier-Journal (June 10, 2020). "'Change agent' Charles Booker is best Democratic candidate in Kentucky Senate race". Louisville Courier-Journal.
  44. ^ AFA (June 8, 2020). "Flight Attendants Union Endorses Charles Booker for United States Senate in Kentucky". Retrieved June 9, 2020 – via AFA News Release.
  45. ^ "National Nurses United Endorses Charles Booker for U.S. Senate". National Nurses United. June 19, 2020. Retrieved June 20, 2020.
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  79. ^ "Ann Coulter Supports Amy McGrath and Calls for Mitch McConnell's Defeat". July 10, 2020.
  80. ^ "Page by Page Report Display (Page 768 of 3007)".
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  82. ^ "IFPTE Releases Its 2020 Congressional Endorsements". ifpte.org. International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers. July 6, 2020. Archived from the original on October 26, 2020. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  83. ^ "Endorsements". Kentucky State AFL-CIO. August 7, 2020. Archived from the original on November 13, 2020. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  84. ^ "U.S. Senate – Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
  85. ^ "Primary and General Election Endorsements". January 27, 2020. Archived from the original on July 13, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  86. ^ "Kentucky – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  87. ^ "U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 4, 2020.
  88. ^ Bolton, Alexander (November 12, 2020). "McConnell treads cautiously in Trump's post-election fight". The Hill. Retrieved December 2, 2020.
  89. ^ "Kentucky U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 3, 2021.
  90. ^ "November 3, 2020 – Official 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. November 20, 2020. p. 10. Retrieved November 21, 2020.

External links

campaign websites
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