2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
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Nominee Ben Ray Luján Mark Ronchetti
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 474,483 418,483
Percentage 51.73% 45.62%
Luján:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Ronchetti:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Tom Udall
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Ben Ray Luján
Democratic

Elections in New Mexico
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The 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

On March 25, 2019, incumbent Democratic Senator Tom Udall announced that he would retire.[1][2][3] Udall was the only Democratic senator who did not run for reelection in 2020. Democratic U.S. Representative Ben Ray Luján defeated Mark Ronchetti by a 6.1% margin. Luján underperformed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 4.6%, who won the concurrent presidential election in the state against President Donald Trump by 10.8%. Ben Ray Luján was the first Hispanic to have won a Senate seat in New Mexico since Joseph Montoya in 1970.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Ben Ray Luján
Federal officials
State and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ben Ray
Luján 		Maggie
Toulouse Oliver 		Undecided
GBAO Strategies (D)[A][44] April 15–18, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 64% 25% –

Results

Democratic primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ben Ray Luján 225,082 100.00%
Total votes 225,082 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Clarkson 		Elisa
Martinez 		Mark
Ronchetti 		Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[B] March 18–22, 2020 400 (V) ± 4.9% 11% 11% 45% –

Results

Results by county:
  Ronchetti
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Martinez
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Ronchetti 89,216 56.49%
Republican Elisa Martinez 41,240 26.11%
Republican Gavin Clarkson 27,471 17.39%
Total votes 157,927 100.00%

Other candidates

Bob Walsh, the Libertarian nominee

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Declined

Results

Libertarian primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Bob Walsh 1,454 100.00%
Total votes 1,454 100.00%

General election

Debate

Host Date & time Link(s) Participants
Ben Ray Luján (D) Mark Ronchetti (R) Bob Walsh (L)
KOB4 and the Santa Fe New Mexican October 5, 2020 [60] Present Present Present

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Safe D October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[62] Safe D October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Likely D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[64] Safe D October 30, 2020
Politico[65] Likely D November 2, 2020
RCP[66] Lean D October 23, 2020
DDHQ[67] Safe D November 3, 2020
538[68] Likely D November 2, 2020
Economist[69] Likely D November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Ben Ray Luján (D)
U.S. presidents
Federal officials
State and local politicians
Labor unions
Organizations
Mark Ronchetti (R)
Federal officials
Individuals
Publications

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ben Ray
Luján (D) 		Mark
Ronchetti (R) 		Bob
Walsh (L) 		Undecided
Research & Polling Inc. October 23–29, 2020 1,180 (LV) ± 2.9% 52% 44% 3% 1%
GBAO Strategies (D)[A] October 14–17, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52%[b] 41% 5% –
54%[c] 43% – –
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 1, 2020 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 41% 3% 6%
Research & Polling Inc. August 26 – September 2, 2020 1,123 (LV) ±  2.9% 49% 40% 4% 8%
Public Policy Polling June 12–13, 2020 740 (V) ± 3.6% 48% 34% – 18%
Hypothetical polling
Ben Ray Luján vs. Gavin Clarkson
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ben Ray
Luján (D) 		Gavin
Clarkson (R) 		Undecided
Emerson College January 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 54% 35% 12%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican
GBAO Strategies (D)[A] October 14–17, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 42%

Results

United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2020[91]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Ben Ray Luján 474,483 51.73% –3.83%
Republican Mark Ronchetti 418,483 45.62% +1.18%
Libertarian Bob Walsh 24,271 2.65% N/A
Total votes 917,237 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold
By county
County Ben Ray Luján
Democratic 		Mark Ronchetti
Republican 		Bob Walsh
Libertarian 		Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # %
Bernalillo 178,880 56.69 128,042 40.58 8,606 2.73 50,838 16.11 315,528
Catron 543 23.55 1,694 73.46 69 2.99 -1,151 -49.91 2,306
Chaves 6,143 27.62 15,624 70.25 475 2.14 -9,481 -42.63 22,242
Cibola 4,478 50.48 4,187 47.20 205 2.31 291 3.28 8,870
Colfax 2,549 42.35 3,314 55.06 156 2.59 -765 -12.71 6,019
Curry 4,261 28.57 10,094 67.67 561 3.76 -5,833 -39.10 14,916
De Baca 228 25.25 653 72.31 22 2.44 -425 -47.06 903
Doña Ana 46,920 57.57 31,697 38.89 2,889 3.54 15,223 18.68 81,506
Eddy 5,301 23.21 17,079 74.77 463 2.03 -11,778 -51.56 22,843
Grant 7,377 51.45 6,610 46.10 352 2.45 767 5.35 14,339
Guadalupe 1,240 56.96 898 41.25 39 1.79 342 15.71 2,177
Harding 157 31.21 341 67.79 5 0.99 -184 -36.58 503
Hidalgo 798 41.35 1,085 56.22 47 2.43 -287 -14.87 1,930
Lea 4,018 19.62 15,950 77.90 508 2.48 -11,932 -58.27 20,476
Lincoln 2,915 28.45 7,102 69.31 230 2.24 -4,187 -40.86 10,247
Los Alamos 7,018 57.06 4,866 39.56 415 3.37 2,152 17.50 12,299
Luna 3,426 43.00 4,319 54.21 222 2.79 -893 -11.21 7,967
McKinley 17,081 65.21 8,304 31.70 807 3.08 8,777 33.51 26,192
Mora 1,674 62.32 957 35.63 55 2.05 717 26.69 2,686
Otero 7,987 34.24 14,627 62.70 715 3.06 -6,640 -28.46 23,329
Quay 1,214 31.55 2,543 66.09 91 2.36 -1,329 -34.54 3,848
Rio Arriba 10,614 64.04 5,689 34.32 271 1.63 4,925 29.72 16,574
Roosevelt 1,774 27.16 4,505 68.98 252 3.86 -2,731 -41.82 6,531
Sandoval 37,782 49.52 36,666 48.06 1,841 2.41 1,116 1.46 76,289
San Juan 17,250 33.18 33,145 63.76 1,588 3.05 -15,895 -30.58 51,983
San Miguel 7,817 67.85 3,545 30.77 159 1.38 4,272 37.08 11,521
Santa Fe 60,432 73.87 19,814 24.22 1,563 1.91 40,618 49.65 81,809
Sierra 2,127 35.93 3,653 61.71 140 2.36 -1,526 -25.78 5,920
Socorro 3,529 49.54 3,384 47.51 210 2.95 145 2.03 7,123
Taos 12,890 75.92 3,749 22.08 340 2.00 9,141 53.84 16,979
Torrance 2,179 29.98 4,904 67.48 184 2.53 -2,725 -37.50 7,267
Union 399 22.50 1,323 74.62 51 2.88 -924 -52.12 1,773
Valencia 13,344 41.53 18,053 56.19 730 2.27 -4,709 -14.66 32,127
Totals 474,483 51.73 418,483 45.62 24,271 2.65 56,000 6.11 917,237
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Luján's campaign.
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Ronchetti's campaign
Voter samples
  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Standard VI response
  3. ^ If only Luján and Ronchetti were candidates

References

  1. ^ Wagner, John (March 25, 2019). "Udall announces he won't seek another term representing New Mexico". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  2. ^ a b c d e Burns, Alexander (March 25, 2019). "Senator Tom Udall Will Retire, Ending a Dynasty in the West". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  3. ^ Udall, Tom (March 25, 2019). "A message to New Mexico from Tom". Medium. Retrieved March 25, 2019.
  4. ^ a b Gonzales, Nathan L.; Gonzales, Nathan L. (March 28, 2019). "Ben Ray Luján to announce New Mexico Senate run Monday". Roll Call. Retrieved March 28, 2019.
  5. ^ Terrell, Steve (April 19, 2019). "Maggie Toulouse Oliver set to enter race for U.S. Senate". Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved April 19, 2019.
  6. ^ Turner, Scott (December 26, 2019). "Luján has new challenger for Senate". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved January 3, 2020.
  7. ^ a b c Reichbach, Matthew (October 29, 2019). "Toulouse Oliver ends Senate run". NM Political Report. Retrieved October 29, 2019.
  8. ^ Monahan, Joe (April 24, 2019). "Longest-Serving State Senator Now 94 And Mulling Over Re-election Bid, Plus: An Unusual GOP Northern Congress Candidate". New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  9. ^ KOB 4 [@KOB4] (March 28, 2019). "BREAKING: @NewMexicoOAG Hector Balderas says he will NOT run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Tom Udall. #NewMexico #nmpol" (Tweet). Retrieved March 28, 2019 – via Twitter.((cite web)): CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  10. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Monahan, Joe (March 26, 2019). "March Madness Comes To La Politica; Udall Heads For Exits And Dems Start Filling In Their Brackets For The Big Game To Come; Frustrated R's Watch The Action From The Bench; Our Complete US Senate Coverage Is Up Next". New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. Retrieved March 26, 2019.
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  91. ^ "Official Results - 2020 General November 3, 2020". New Mexico Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 10, 2021. Retrieved November 24, 2020.

External links

Official campaign websites
(2019 ←)   2020 United States elections   (→ 2021)
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