2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout68.67% Increase
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 501,614 401,894
Percentage 54.29% 43.50%

County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

New Mexico was won by Biden by a 10.79% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations making election predictions considered New Mexico as a state Biden would win. The state used to be quite competitive, voting for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 with a margin of only 366 votes and Republican George W. Bush in 2004 by 5,988 votes. However, the Land of Enchantment has become a safe blue state since then as Democrats have relied on Hispanic, Native American, and urban voters to deliver victories.[4] Biden scored victories in all of the state's largest counties: Bernalillo, Doña Ana, and Santa Fe counties, home to Albuquerque, Las Cruces, and Santa Fe, respectively; all of them voted for Biden in margins greater than ten points.[5] Aggregate polling correctly showed Biden being up by double-digits in the state.[6][7]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, much of Biden's strength in New Mexico came from Latino voters, from whom he garnered 61% of the vote. These included 54% of Latinos of Mexican heritage and 70% of Spanish-Americans. Biden also carried a plurality of Caucasian/white voters in the state (49% to Trump's 48%).[8] He also won over Native Americans, garnering 60–90% of the vote.[9][10] 53% of voters believed the Trump administration was doing too little to help Native American reservations in New Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, and these voters broke for Biden by 75%–23%.

On the other hand, Trump increased his popular vote percentage by 3.46%, earning 43.5% of the vote share and over 400,000 votes in total. Much of this improvement could be attributed to the fact that the Libertarian Party nominee in 2016 had been former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who earned 9.34% of the vote in his home state; Johnson did not run in 2020. That said, Trump's 43.5% represented not only an improvement on his own vote share in 2016, but also on those of future Utah Senator Mitt Romney in 2012 (42.84%) and Arizona Senator John McCain in 2008 (41.78%). This was the first election since 1968 in which New Mexico voted more Republican than neighboring Colorado. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Colfax County since New Mexico was granted statehood in 1912;[11] and this was the first election since 1948 in which Valencia County voted for the losing candidate.[12]

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[13]

2020 New Mexico Republican presidential primary
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump 144,067 91.25 22
Uncommitted 13,809 8.75 0
Total 157,876 100% 22

Democratic primary

2020 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary[14]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[15]
Joe Biden 181,700 73.30% 30
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 37,435 15.10% 4
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 14,552 5.87%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 4,026 1.62%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 2,735 1.10%
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 971 0.39%
Uncommitted 6,461 2.61%
Total 247,880 100% 34

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

2020 New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary

June 2, 2020 2024 →
← NE
 
Candidate Jo Jorgensen
(nominee)[a]
Uncommitted Lincoln Chafee
(withdrawn)
Home state South Carolina N/A Wyoming
Popular vote 520 330 158
Percentage 33.12% 21.02% 10.06%

 
Candidate Jacob Hornberger
(lost)[a]
Adam Kokesh
(lost)[a]
Sam Robb
(lost)[a]
Home state Virginia Indiana Pennsylvania
Popular vote 154 124 90
Percentage 9.81% 7.90% 5.73%

Election results by county
  Jo Jorgensen
  Uncommitted
  Tie
  No votes
New Mexico Libertarian presidential primary, June 2, 2020[18]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jo Jorgensen (nominee)[a] 520 33.12%
Uncommitted 330 21.02%
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn) 158 10.06%
Jacob Hornberger (lost)[a] 154 9.81%
Adam Kokesh (lost)[a] 124 7.90%
Sam Robb (lost)[a] 90 5.73%
John Monds (lost)[a] 63 4.01%
Dan Behrman (lost)[a] 58 3.69%
Arvin Vohra (lost)[a] 39 2.48%
James Ogle (lost)[a] 34 2.17%
Total 1,557 100%

General election

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[19] Solid D
Inside Elections[20] Solid D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] Likely D
Politico[22] Likely D
RCP[23] Lean D
Niskanen[24] Safe D
CNN[25] Solid D
The Economist[26] Safe D
CBS News[27] Likely D
270towin[28] Likely D
ABC News[29] Solid D
NPR[30] Likely D
NBC News[31] Likely D
538[32] Solid D

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win October 6 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.5% 40.5% 6.0% Biden +13.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.8% 42.3% 3.9% Biden +11.5
Average 53.7% 41.4% 4.9% Biden +12.3

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,481 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%[d] 56%
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal Oct 23–29, 2020 1,180 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 54% 3%[e] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 2,719 (LV) 46% 52%
GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D)[A] Oct 14–17, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 54%
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 53% 2% 2%[f] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,015 (LV) 44% 54% 1%
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal Aug 26 – Sep 2, 2020 1,123 (LV) ± 2.9% 39% 54%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,087 (LV) 43% 56% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 904 (LV) 48% 49% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 506 (LV) 50% 49% 1%
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report Jun 12–13, 2020 740 (V) ± 3.6% 39% 53% 8%
Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute[B] Apr 20–21, 2020 1,091 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 52%
Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 54%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 55%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 59%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Emerson College Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 54%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico[33]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
501,614 54.29% +6.03%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
401,894 43.50% +3.46%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
12,585 1.36% −7.98%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
4,426 0.48% −0.76%
Constitution Sheila "Samm" Tittle[g]
David Sandige
1,806 0.20% +0.01%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
1,640 0.18% +0.04%
Write-in 0 0.00% ±0.00%
Total votes 923,965 100.00%


By county

2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico by county[34]
County Joe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Total
% # % # % # #
Bernalillo 61.01% 193,757 36.57% 116,135 2.42% 7,698 317,590
Catron 25.58% 595 73.00% 1,698 1.42% 33 2,326
Chaves 28.43% 6,381 69.76% 15,656 1.81% 406 22,443
Cibola 53.30% 4,745 44.65% 3,975 2.05% 139 8,903
Colfax 43.40% 2,611 54.37% 3,271 2.23% 134 6,016
Curry 28.52% 4,307 69.16% 10,444 2.32% 350 15,101
De Baca 25.64% 231 72.81% 656 1.55% 14 901
Doña Ana 58.03% 47,957 39.69% 32,802 2.28% 1,882 82,641
Eddy 23.36% 5,424 75.16% 17,454 1.48% 344 23,222
Grant 52.58% 7,590 45.4% 6,553 2.02% 292 14,435
Guadalupe 56.37% 1,234 41.89% 917 1.74% 38 2,189
Harding 35.45% 179 63.17% 319 1.38% 7 505
Hidalgo 41.69% 823 56.74% 1,120 1.57% 31 1,974
Lea 19.41% 4,061 79.03% 16,531 1.56% 326 20,918
Lincoln 30.99% 3,194 67.36% 6,942 1.65% 170 10,306
Los Alamos 61.45% 7,554 34.80% 4,278 3.75% 461 12,293
Luna 43.97% 3,563 54.40% 4,408 1.63% 132 8,103
McKinley 68.07% 18,029 29.45% 7,801 2.48% 656 26,486
Mora 64.97% 1,745 33.62% 903 1.41% 38 2,686
Otero 36.00% 8,485 61.60% 14,521 2.40% 565 23,571
Quay 29.60% 1,170 68.00% 2,634 1.78% 69 3,873
Rio Arriba 66.09% 10,990 32.52% 5,408 1.38% 230 16,628
Roosevelt 27.27% 1,802 70.13% 4,634 2.60% 172 6,608
Sandoval 53.01% 40,588 44.64% 34,174 2.35% 1,800 76,562
San Juan 34.58% 18,083 62.86% 32,874 2.56% 1,337 52,294
San Miguel 68.41% 7,888 29.66% 3,421 1.93% 222 11,531
Santa Fe 76.05% 62,530 22.29% 18,329 1.66% 1,368 82,227
Sierra 38.10% 2,265 59.58% 3,542 2.32% 138 5,945
Socorro 51.98% 3,722 45.46% 3,255 1.86% 133 7,160
Taos 76.37% 13,121 21.63% 3,715 2.00% 345 17,181
Torrance 32.19% 2,344 65.54% 4,772 2.27% 165 7,281
Union 21.41% 383 77.59% 1,388 1.00% 18 1,789
Valencia 44.19% 14,263 53.8% 17,364 2.01% 650 32,277
Totals 54.29% 501,614 43.50% 401,894 2.21% 20,457 923,965

By congressional district

Biden won 2 out of 3 congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 37.4% 60.2% Deb Haaland
2nd 54.9% 43.1% Xochitl Torres Small
Yvette Herrell
3rd 40.1% 57.7% Ben Ray Luján
Teresa Leger Fernandez

Aftermath

On December 14, 2020, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit against the New Mexico Secretary of State over the use of ballot drop-boxes for the 2020 presidential election. However, on January 11, 2021, five days after Congress certified the results for Joe Biden, the campaign dropped the lawsuit. [35] Trump attorney Mark Caruso cited “events that have transpired since the inception of this lawsuit” in a three-page motion as the reason for dropping the lawsuit. Despite the withdrawal, the motion still allows for revisiting these concerns in the future.[36]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Jorgensen was nominated at the 2020 Libertarian National Convention on May 23,[16] ten days before the New Mexico primary, which was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[17]
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
  6. ^ "other" with 2%
  7. ^ The national Constitution Party nominated Don Blankenship for President with William Mohr as his running mate, but the New Mexico state party chose Tittle and Sandige.
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Ben Ray Luján's campaign for the 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Majority Institute, a communications firm which supports the Democratic Party

References

  1. ^ "New Mexico Election Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ Silver, Nate (March 8, 2016). "Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  5. ^ "New Mexico Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  6. ^ "New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump". 270toWin.com. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  7. ^ Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Koeze, Ella; Mehta, Dhrumhil; Mithani, Jasmine; Wolfe, Julia (November 21, 2020). "New Mexico President: General Election Polls". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  8. ^ "New Mexico Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  9. ^ Caldera, Camille. "Fact check: There was strong Navajo support for Biden, but numbers cited in claim have changed". USA TODAY. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
  10. ^ "Dzil Yizhiin stays true blue, defying national rural trend". Navajo Times. November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  11. ^ "The Political Graveyard: Colfax County, N.M." politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
  12. ^ Chief, Dan Boyd | Journal Capitol Bureau. "Valencia County's 17 presidential elections streak comes to an end". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
  13. ^ "New Mexico Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 Primary Election Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  15. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  16. ^ Doherty, Brian (May 23, 2020). "Jo Jorgensen Wins Libertarian Party Presidential Nomination". Reason. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
  17. ^ Saul, Stephanie; Corasaniti, Nick (May 27, 2020). "16 States Have Postponed Primaries During the Pandemic. Here's a List". The New York Times. Retrieved July 18, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Primary Election Results Statewide Summary" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State. Link under "2020 Primary Election Results". July 28, 2020. p. 12. Retrieved June 7, 2021.CS1 maint: location (link)
  19. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  22. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  23. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  24. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  25. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  26. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  29. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  31. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  32. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  33. ^ "Federal". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  34. ^ "Official Results". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved December 13, 2020.
  35. ^ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/president-donald-trumps-campaign-drops-new-mexico-election-lawsuit/ar-BB1cFoli
  36. ^ https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-state-elections-lawsuits-general-elections-66d53e1e68b331c8b0bd86887dfc252b

Further reading