2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota

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Turnout62.65%[1] Increase
 
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic-NPL
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 235,595 114,902
Percentage 65.11% 31.76%

North Dakota Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump from Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence from Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Trump won North Dakota 65.1% to 31.7%, a margin of 33.4%, about three points down from his 36-point victory in 2016. North Dakota, a rural state covered in the Midwestern Plains, is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. It last voted for a Democrat in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried it against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory. Since 1964, the Peace Garden State has been competitive in only three elections: 1976, 1996, and 2008. A few prime reasons why this state votes heavily for Republicans include its older, majority-White populace; agribusiness; and the state's recent oil boom. In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as the oil boom increasingly fuels the economy of North Dakota.[4] The main oil boom has taken place in the western counties—perhaps Trump's main base. Trump signed executive orders on his first month in office, reviving the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines rejected by the Obama administration.[5]

Joe Biden won the same two counties Hillary Clinton won in 2016: the majority-Native American counties of Rolette and Sioux, both of which have long been Democratic strongholds. However, Biden only came 2.7 points short of winning Cass County, which holds the state's largest city of Fargo, as compared to Clinton's 10.5-point loss in 2016. Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Sargent County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 and the first without Benson, Ransom, or Steele Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960.[citation needed]

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Further information: 2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses

The North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party held a firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020.

All of the withdrawn candidates had withdrawn from the race while mail-in voting had already begun.

2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses[6]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Bernie Sanders 7,682 52.81 8
Joe Biden 5,742 39.47 6
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 366 2.52
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 223 1.53
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 164 1.13
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 113 0.78
Tulsi Gabbard 89 0.61
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 20 0.14
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 6 0.04
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 3 0.02
John Delaney (withdrawn) 3 0.02
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 2 0.01
Unsigned votes / Overvotes / Blank Votes [a] 133 0.91
Total 14,546 100% 14

Republican caucuses

The North Dakota Republican Party held a non-binding firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020, with incumbent President Donald Trump running unopposed.[7][8]

The party will then formally select their 29 Republican National Convention delegates, unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention. The state party convention was originally scheduled for March 27–29, but due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic it was ultimately cancelled.[9][10]

Libertarian nominee

General election

Final predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[11] Solid R
Inside Elections[12] Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Safe R
Politico[14] Solid R
RCP[15] Solid R
Niskanen[16] Safe R
CNN[17] Solid R
The Economist[18] Safe R
CBS News[19] Likely R
270towin[20] Safe R
ABC News[21] Solid R
NPR[22] Likely R
NBC News[23] Solid R
538[24] Solid R

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win September 26 – October 17, 2020 October 19, 2020 38.0% 57.5% 4.5% Trump +19.5
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 38.7% 56.0% 5.3% Trump +17.3
Average 38.4% 56.8% 4.8% Trump +18.4

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 402 (LV) ± 7% 59%[d] 39%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 700 (LV) 57% 42%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 249 (LV) 63% 34% 3%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First Sep 26–29, 2020 460 (A) ± 4.6% 51% 37% 4%[e] 7%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First Sep 12–16, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 56% 37% 3%[f] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 269 (LV) 66% 32% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 261 (LV) 63% 36% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 88 (LV) 71% 28% 1%
DFM Research Mar 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 38% 2% 5%
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 34% 2% 5%
1892 Polling/Doug Burgum[A] Jul 15–17, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 60% 34%
DFM Research May 14–18, 2019 400 (A) ± 4.9% 54% 39% 2% 5%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 32% 1% 7%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 31% 2% 8%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 33% 1% 7%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
DFM Research Mar 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 33% 4% 4%
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 61% 32% 1% 5%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
DFM Research Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 62% 31% 2% 6%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 403 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 36% 17%

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[25]

Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party
Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic-NPL Party
Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Sandy J. Boehler
Ray Holmberg
Robert Wefald
Heidi Heitkamp
Bernice Knutson
Warren Larson
Dustin Gawrylow
Martin J. Riske
Dylan Stuckey

Results

2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
235,751 65.12% +2.16%
Democratic-NPL Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
115,042 31.78% +4.55%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
9,371 2.59% −3.63%
Write-in 1,860 0.51% −1.35%
Total votes 362,024 100.00%
Republican win

Results by county

County Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic-NPL
Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian
Write-ins Total
votes
% # % # % # % #
Adams 77.30% 981 20.33% 258 2.36% 30 0.00% 0 1,269
Barnes 64.12% 3,568 32.70% 1,820 2.89% 161 0.29% 16 5,565
Benson 55.79% 1,094 41.92% 822 1.99% 39 0.31% 6 1,961
Billings 85.20% 541 11.34% 72 3.31% 21 0.16% 1 635
Bottineau 74.19% 2,575 23.65% 821 1.87% 65 0.29% 10 3,471
Bowman 84.19% 1,395 13.76% 228 1.81% 30 0.24% 4 1,657
Burke 86.06% 994 11.86% 137 1.73% 20 0.35% 4 1,155
Burleigh 68.46% 34,744 28.27% 14,348 2.70% 1,368 0.58% 293 50,753
Cass 49.51% 42,793 46.86% 40,505 2.90% 2,509 0.73% 631 86,438
Cavalier 74.21% 1,499 23.47% 474 1.98% 40 0.35% 7 2,020
Dickey 71.86% 1,742 25.08% 608 2.60% 63 0.45% 11 2,424
Divide 75.21% 904 22.05% 265 2.50% 30 0.25% 3 1,202
Dunn 83.45% 1,951 14.63% 342 1.67% 39 0.26% 6 2,338
Eddy 67.72% 854 30.37% 383 1.74% 22 0.16% 2 1,261
Emmons 86.51% 1,738 11.80% 237 1.34% 27 0.35% 7 2,009
Foster 76.60% 1,362 20.98% 373 1.86% 33 0.56% 10 1,778
Golden Valley 84.89% 871 13.35% 137 1.56% 16 0.19% 2 1,026
Grand Forks 54.85% 16,987 41.59% 12,880 2.82% 874 0.74% 229 30,970
Grant 82.91% 1,145 14.99% 207 2.03% 28 0.07% 1 1,381
Griggs 72.56% 907 24.64% 308 2.72% 34 0.08% 1 1,250
Hettinger 83.16% 1,091 14.94% 196 1.75% 23 0.15% 2 1,312
Kidder 83.22% 1,215 15.14% 221 1.51% 22 0.14% 2 1,460
LaMoure 74.13% 1,645 23.75% 527 1.98% 44 0.14% 3 2,219
Logan 86.43% 930 11.90% 128 1.30% 14 0.37% 4 1,076
McHenry 78.72% 2,364 18.78% 564 2.26% 68 0.23% 7 3,003
McIntosh 79.24% 1,153 17.94% 261 2.06% 30 0.76% 11 1,455
McKenzie 82.71% 4,482 15.02% 814 2.03% 110 0.24% 13 5,419
McLean 75.83% 4,198 22.22% 1,230 1.73% 96 0.22% 12 5,536
Mercer 82.48% 3,856 15.06% 704 2.18% 102 0.28% 13 4,675
Morton 73.67% 12,243 23.30% 3,872 2.60% 432 0.43% 72 16,619
Mountrail 67.80% 2,824 30.16% 1,256 1.80% 75 0.24% 10 4,165
Nelson 64.21% 1,141 32.98% 586 2.42% 43 0.39% 7 1,777
Oliver 86.12% 918 12.10% 129 1.69% 18 0.09% 1 1,066
Pembina 73.85% 2,460 23.60% 786 1.98% 66 0.57% 19 3,331
Pierce 74.48% 1,585 23.36% 497 1.79% 38 0.38% 8 2,128
Ramsey 66.59% 3,577 30.51% 1,639 2.38% 128 0.52% 28 5,372
Ransom 57.78% 1,418 38.51% 945 3.50% 86 0.20% 5 2,454
Renville 80.74% 1,065 16.68% 220 2.43% 32 0.15% 2 1,319
Richland 64.93% 5,072 32.13% 2,510 2.44% 191 0.50% 39 7,812
Rolette 33.04% 1,257 65.25% 2,482 1.58% 60 0.13% 5 3,804
Sargent 61.16% 1,266 35.65% 738 3.00% 62 0.19% 4 2,070
Sheridan 84.73% 688 12.81% 104 1.97% 16 0.49% 4 812
Sioux 21.75% 258 67.79% 804 4.05% 48 6.41% 76 1,186
Slope 89.00% 380 10.30% 44 0.47% 2 0.23% 1 427
Stark 80.47% 12,110 16.60% 2,499 2.63% 396 0.30% 45 15,050
Steele 59.93% 652 36.03% 392 3.49% 38 0.55% 6 1,088
Stutsman 70.23% 6,994 26.87% 2,676 2.50% 249 0.40% 40 9,959
Towner 70.70% 830 27.00% 317 2.13% 25 0.17% 2 1,174
Traill 60.98% 2,522 36.10% 1,493 2.66% 110 0.27% 11 4,136
Walsh 69.50% 3,324 27.87% 1,333 1.99% 95 0.65% 31 4,783
Ward 70.71% 19,974 25.82% 7,293 2.99% 845 0.47% 134 28,246
Wells 79.74% 1,893 18.62% 442 1.35% 32 0.29% 7 2,374
Williams 81.90% 11,739 15.13% 2,169 2.53% 362 0.45% 64 14,334

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Unsigned 87, over 7, blank 39 votes
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Other candidate" with 4%
  6. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Burgum's campaign

References

  1. ^ a b "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ Cohen, Micah (October 14, 2012). "An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  5. ^ Volcovici, Valerie (December 6, 2016). "Trump supports completion of Dakota Access Pipeline". Reuters. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
  6. ^ "2020 Democratic Caucus Results". North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
  7. ^ "6 states will vote in Tuesday's GOP presidential primary. Trump will win all 6". Vox. March 10, 2020.
  8. ^ "North Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 4, 2020.
  9. ^ "North Dakota GOP cancels state convention because of coronavirus threat". KFGO. March 18, 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 State Convention – North Dakota Republican Party". Retrieved March 18, 2020.
  11. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  15. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  16. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  17. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  18. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  19. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  21. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  23. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  25. ^ "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.

Further reading