2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma

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Turnout54.8% Increase 5.8 pp[1]
 
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,020,280 503,890
Percentage 65.37% 32.29%

2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma results map by precinct.svg
Oklahoma Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma results map by congressional district.svg
2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma results map by state house district.svg
2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma results map by state senate district.svg
Trump:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
Biden:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
     Tie      No votes

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Oklahoma voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Oklahoma has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Trump easily carried Oklahoma on Election Day by a margin of 33.08%, down from 36.39 points in 2016. Oklahoma was one of two states where Trump won every county, the other being West Virginia. This also signaled the fifth consecutive election in which the Republican candidate carried every county in the state, including those counties encompassed by Native American reservations. In this election, Trump also became the first presidential candidate ever to win more than a million votes in Oklahoma.[4] Biden, however, came within 3,326 votes of winning Oklahoma's most populous county Oklahoma County, and won more than 40% of the vote in Oklahoma's second-most populous county Tulsa. No Democratic presidential candidate has won Oklahoma County since Lyndon B. Johnson in his 1964 landslide, or Tulsa County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in his 1936 landslide. This is the first election since 2000 in which not every county voted in the majority for the Republican. However, these gains in urban Oklahoma were offset by continued falloff in southeast Oklahoma, where Biden even underperformed Hillary Clinton's performance four years earlier in most counties.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Oklahoma came from Southern whites, with 71% support. Oklahoma, often termed the "Buckle of the Bible Belt", is a very religious state, with Trump capturing the Protestant vote by 78%.[5] Trump also exhibited considerable strength in the socially conservative but economically liberal area known as "Little Dixie", which historically votes Democratic at the local level, carrying Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, which encompasses this region and its sizable conservative Native American population, by 54%.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

Trump won the state in a landslide victory against his five opponents.

2020 Oklahoma Republican presidential primary[6][7]
Candidate Popular vote Delegates[8]
Count Percentage
America Symbol.svg
Donald Trump
273,738 92.60% 43
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 10,996 3.72% 0
Matthew Matern 3,810 1.29% 0
Bob Ely 3,294 1.11% 0
Rocky De La Fuente 2,466 0.83% 0
Zoltan Istvan 1,297 0.44% 0
Total 295,601 100% 43

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared Democratic candidates.[9]

Popular vote share by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Biden—<30%   Biden—30–40%   Biden—40–50%
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—<30%
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
2020 Oklahoma Democratic presidential primary[10]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[11]
Joe Biden 117,633 38.66 21
Bernie Sanders 77,425 25.45 13
Michael Bloomberg 42,270 13.89 2
Elizabeth Warren 40,732 13.39 1
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] 6,733 2.21
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] 5,115 1.68
Tulsi Gabbard 5,109 1.68
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] 2,006 0.66
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,997 0.66
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,530 0.50
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 1,273 0.42
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 1,158 0.38
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 680 0.22
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 620 0.20
Total 304,281 100% 37

Libertarian nominee

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

Independent candidates

Three unaffiliated candidates filed to be on the Oklahoma presidential ballot, all by paying a $35,000 fee. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has filed a lawsuit challenging the amount of the filing fee.[12]

Ballot order

Oklahoma determines ballot order by lot, with unaffiliated candidates listed below candidates of recognized parties. The drawing was held on July 16, with the resulting order for political parties being Republican, Libertarian, Democrat.[16] The unaffiliated candidates for president will be listed in this order: Jade Simmons, Kanye West, Brock Pierce.[17]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Safe R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[19] Safe R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Safe R July 14, 2020
Politico[21] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[22] Safe R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[23] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[24] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[25] Safe R September 2, 2020
CBS News[26] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[27] Safe R August 2, 2020
ABC News[28] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[29] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[30] Safe R August 6, 2020
538[31] Safe R September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win October 17–21, 2020 November 3, 2020 38.5% 58.5% 3.0% Trump +20.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 36.2% 59.2% 4.6% Trump +23.0
Average 37.4% 58.9% 3.7% Trump +21.5

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,902 (LV) ± 3% 65%[d] 35%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 3,191 (LV) 59% 40%
SoonerPoll/News 9/News on 6 Oct 15–20, 2020 5,466 (LV) ± 1.33% 59% 37% 1% 2%[e] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,174 (LV) 63% 35% 2%
Amber Integrated Sep 17–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 55% 33% 1% 5%[f] 6%
SoonerPoll/News9[1] Sep 2–8, 2020 486 (LV) ± 4.45% 60% 35% 1%[e] 4%
SoonerPoll Aug 13–31, 2020 379 (LV) ± 5.03% 60% 35% 2%[g] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,009 (LV) 64% 35% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,410 (LV) 64% 34% 4%
DFM Research/Abby Broyles for US Senate[A] Jul 29–30, 2020 572 (LV) ± 4.1% 56% 36% 5%[h] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 591 (LV) 61% 37% 1%
Amber Integrated Jun 3–4, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 55% 36% 4%[i] 5%
Amber Integrated Mar 5–8, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 57% 33% 4% 5%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass
& Associates/OK Sooner
Feb 10–13, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.3% 62% 34% 4%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Amber Integrated Mar 5–8, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4 % 59% 30% 5% 5%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass
& Associates/OK Sooner
Feb 10–13, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.3% 63% 34% 3%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass
& Associates/OK Sooner
Feb 10–13, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.3% 61% 35% 3%

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Independent Undecided
Amber Integrated Dec. 4-6, 2019 500 (RV) 4.38% 54% 27% 8% 10%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma[32]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,020,280 65.37 +0.05%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
503,890 32.29 +3.36%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
24,731 1.58 −4.17%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball
5,597 0.36 N/A
Independent Jade Simmons
Claudeliah Roze
3,654 0.23 N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
2,547 0.16 N/A
Total votes 1,560,699 100.0

Results by county

County[32] Trump Trump % Biden Biden % Others Others % Total
Adair 5,585 78.57% 1,387 19.51% 136 1.91% 7,108
Alfalfa 1,978 87.44% 232 10.26% 52 2.30% 2,262
Atoka 4,557 84.56% 765 14.20% 67 1.24% 5,389
Beaver 1,968 90.36% 190 8.72% 20 0.92% 2,178
Beckham 6,767 85.14% 1,048 13.19% 133 1.67% 7,948
Blaine 3,136 80.39% 688 17.64% 77 1.97% 3,901
Bryan 12,344 77.27% 3,323 20.80% 309 1.93% 15,976
Caddo 7,013 71.13% 2,670 27.08% 176 1.79% 9,859
Canadian 43,550 70.31% 16,742 27.03% 1,648 2.66% 61,940
Carter 14,699 75.46% 4,470 22.95% 310 1.59% 19,479
Cherokee 11,223 63.36% 6,027 34.02% 464 2.62% 17,714
Choctaw 4,698 80.56% 1,082 18.55% 52 0.89% 5,832
Cimarron 970 92.03% 70 6.64% 14 1.42% 1,054
Cleveland 66,677 55.67% 49,827 41.60% 3,274 2.73% 119,778
Coal 2,091 82.84% 374 14.82% 59 2.34% 2,524
Comanche 20,905 58.67% 13,747 38.58% 979 2.75% 35,631
Cotton 2,117 82.31% 393 15.28% 62 2.41% 2,572
Craig 4,686 77.69% 1,217 20.18% 129 2.14% 6,032
Creek 23,294 76.36% 6,577 21.56% 634 2.08% 30,505
Custer 8,060 75.39% 2,369 22.16% 262 2.45% 10,691
Delaware 13,557 78.61% 3,472 20.13% 216 1.25% 17,245
Dewey 2,124 90.04% 214 9.07% 21 0.89% 2,359
Ellis 1,688 90.12% 162 8.65% 23 1.23% 1,873
Garfield 16,970 75.66% 4,919 21.93% 541 2.41% 22,430
Garvin 8,878 81.29% 1,865 17.08% 179 1.64% 10,922
Grady 18,538 80.25% 4,144 17.94% 419 1.81% 23,101
Grant 1,916 86.07% 280 12.58% 30 1.35% 2,226
Greer 1,605 81.35% 328 16.62% 40 2.03% 1,973
Harmon 747 80.06% 177 18.97% 9 0.96% 933
Harper 1,327 89.24% 136 9.15% 24 1.61% 1,487
Haskell 4,165 83.07% 783 15.62% 66 1.52% 5,014
Hughes 3,875 79.78% 919 18.92% 63 1.30% 4,857
Jackson 6,392 77.75% 1,646 20.02% 183 2.23% 8,221
Jefferson 2,026 84.95% 319 13.38% 40 1.68% 2,385
Johnston 3,441 80.95% 738 17.36% 72 1.69% 4,251
Kay 12,834 74.40% 4,040 23.42% 375 2.17% 17,249
Kingfisher 5,521 85.40% 854 13.21% 90 1.39% 6,465
Kiowa 2,673 78.00% 699 20.40% 55 1.60% 3,427
Latimer 3,437 80.89% 762 17.93% 50 1.18% 4,249
Le Flore 15,213 80.90% 3,299 17.54% 293 1.56% 18,805
Lincoln 12,013 80.69% 2,609 17.52% 266 1.79% 14,888
Logan 15,608 72.35% 5,455 25.29% 511 2.37% 21,574
Love 3,305 81.08% 711 17.44% 60 1.47% 4,076
Major 3,084 88.95% 320 9.23% 63 1.82% 3,467
Marshall 4,891 80.66% 1,100 18.14% 73 1.20% 6,064
Mayes 12,749 76.68% 3,581 21.54% 296 1.78% 16,626
McClain 15,295 79.51% 3,582 18.62% 359 1.87% 19,236
McCurtain 9,485 82.72% 1,858 16.20% 124 1.08% 11,467
McIntosh 6,172 74.05% 2,031 24.37% 132 1.58% 8,335
Murray 4,612 78.25% 1,156 19.61% 126 2.14% 5,894
Muskogee 16,526 65.89% 8,027 32.00% 528 2.11% 25,081
Noble 3,821 77.38% 1,003 20.31% 114 2.31% 4,938
Nowata 3,610 82.21% 712 16.21% 69 1.57% 4,391
Okfuskee 3,058 75.73% 896 22.19% 84 2.08% 4,038
Oklahoma 145,050 49.21% 141,724 48.08% 7,966 2.70% 294,740
Okmulgee 9,668 67.55% 4,357 30.44% 288 2.01% 14,313
Osage 14,121 68.76% 6,002 29.22% 415 2.02% 20,538
Ottawa 8,545 74.71% 2,686 23.48% 207 1.81% 11,438
Pawnee 5,267 77.62% 1,363 20.09% 156 2.30% 6,786
Payne 17,813 60.09% 10,904 36.78% 926 3.12% 29,643
Pittsburg 13,851 77.28% 3,768 21.02% 305 1.70% 17,924
Pontotoc 10,805 70.53% 4,117 26.87% 398 2.60% 15,320
Pottawatomie 20,240 71.81% 7,275 25.81% 670 2.38% 28,185
Pushmataha 4,016 84.74% 668 14.10% 55 1.16% 4,739
Roger Mills 1,629 88.82% 168 9.16% 37 2.02% 1,834
Rogers 34,031 76.38% 9,589 21.52% 933 2.09% 44,553
Seminole 6,011 72.10% 2,150 25.79% 176 2.11% 8,337
Sequoyah 12,113 78.73% 3,035 19.73% 238 1.55% 15,386
Stephens 15,560 81.65% 3,154 16.55% 343 1.80% 19,057
Texas 4,505 81.60% 894 16.19% 122 2.21% 5,521
Tillman 2,076 76.66% 597 22.05% 35 1.29% 2,708
Tulsa 150,574 56.46% 108,996 40.87% 7,108 2.67% 266,678
Wagoner 26,165 74.04% 8,464 23.95% 709 2.01% 35,338
Washington 17,076 72.66% 5,790 24.64% 635 2.70% 23,501
Washita 4,086 85.53% 598 12.52% 93 1.95% 4,777
Woods 2,993 81.38% 591 16.07% 94 2.56% 3,678
Woodward 6,611 84.92% 1,005 12.91% 169 2.17% 7,785
Total 1,020,280 65.37% 503,890 32.29% 36,529 2.34% 1,560,699

By congressional district

Trump won all of Oklahoma's congressional districts.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 60.11% 37.31% Kevin Hern
2nd 76.10% 22.15% Markwayne Mullin
3rd 74.58% 23.15% Frank Lucas
4th 65.23% 32.22% Tom Cole
5th 51.56% 45.95% Kendra Horn (116th Congress)
Stephanie Bice (117th Congress)

Electors

Ronda Vuillemont-Smith, Lonnie Lu Anderson, Chris Martin, Steve Fair, Linda Huggard, A. J. Ferate, Carolyn McLarty[33]

Erin Adams, Danny Chabino, Drew Cook, Kevin Hobbie, Rex Lawhorn, Jay Norton, Victoria Whitfield[34]

Judy Eason McIntyre, Eric Proctor, Jeff Berrong, Christine Byrd, Demetrios Bereolos, Pamela Iron, Shevonda Steward[35]

Shanda Carter, Terrence Stephens, Hope Stephens, Elizabeth Stephens, Dakota Hooks, Phalanda Boyd, Quincy Boyd[13]

April Anderson, Craig Alan Weygandt, Will Flanagan, Tom Krup, Megan Krup, Gretchen Schrupp, David Schrupp[15]

Robert Murphy, Susan Darlene Murphy, Richard Prawdzienski, Jessy Artman, David Selinger, Shane Wayne Howell, Angela McCaslin[14]

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the election.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ a b West (B) with 1%; Pierce (I) and Simmons (I) with less than 1%
  6. ^ Pierce (I), Simmons (I), West (B) and "refused" with 1%
  7. ^ Would not vote with 2%
  8. ^ "Other candidate" with 5%
  9. ^ "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Broyles' campaign

See also

References

  1. ^ "2020 November General Election Turnout Rates". United States Elections Project. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ Casteel, Chris (November 15, 2020). "Trump's Oklahoma County squeaker, Horn's Grady County connection and 3 other things about the election". The Oklahoman. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "Oklahoma Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 16, 2020.
  6. ^ "Candidate Information". Oklahoma State Election Board.
  7. ^ "Presidential Preferential Primary and Special Elections – March 3, 2020". OK Election Results. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  8. ^ "Oklahoma Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
  9. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  10. ^ "Presidential Preferential Primary and Special Elections – March 3, 2020". OK Election Results. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  11. ^ "How Many Delegates Do The 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates Have?". NPR.org. National Public Radio. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
  12. ^ "Howie Hawkins Files Federal Lawsuit Against Amount of Oklahoma Presidential Filing Fee | Ballot Access News". Retrieved May 7, 2021.
  13. ^ a b https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Simmons,%20Jade_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf[bare URL PDF]
  14. ^ a b https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Pierce,%20Brock_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf[bare URL PDF]
  15. ^ a b https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/West,%20Kanye_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf[bare URL PDF]
  16. ^ "Oklahoma State Election Board".
  17. ^ "General Election Ballot Order Set | The McCarville Report". Retrieved May 7, 2021.
  18. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  22. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  23. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  24. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  25. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  27. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  28. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  29. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  30. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  32. ^ a b "OK election results". Retrieved November 27, 2020.
  33. ^ https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Republican%20Certification%20Letter_Presidential%20Electors_072020_Redacted.pdf[bare URL PDF]
  34. ^ https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Libertarian%20Certification%20Letter_Electors-President%20and%20Vice%20President_2020_Redacted.pdf[bare URL PDF]
  35. ^ https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Democratic%20Certification%20Letter_Presidential%20Electors_072020_Redacted.pdf[bare URL PDF]