2022 Hungarian parliamentary election

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All 199 seats in the National Assembly
100 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout69.59% (Decrease 0.14pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Orbán Viktor 2018 (cropped).jpg
Márki-Zay Péter cropped.jpg
Toroczkai László.png
Leader Viktor Orbán Péter Márki-Zay László Toroczkai
Party Fidesz Independent (MMM) Our Homeland
Alliance Fidesz–KDNP United for Hungary[b]
Leader since 17 May 2003 17 October 2021 23 June 2018
Last election 133 seats, 49.27% Did not exist[c] Did not exist[a]
Seats won
Seat change Increase 2 Decrease8[d] New party
Constituency vote 2,823,419 1,983,708 307,064
% 52.52% 36.90% 5.71%
Party vote 3,060,706 1,947,331 332,487
% and swing 54.13% Increase 4.86pp 34.44% Decrease 12.03pp 5.88% New

2022 Hungarian parliamentary election - Tentative results.png
Results of the election. A darker shade indicates a higher vote share. Proportional list results are displayed in the top left.

Prime Minister before election

Viktor Orbán
Fidesz

Elected Prime Minister

Viktor Orbán
Fidesz

Parliamentary elections were held in Hungary on 3 April 2022 to elect the National Assembly, coinciding with a referendum.[1][2]

Hungary's incumbent prime minister Viktor Orbán declared victory on Sunday night, with partial results showing his Fidesz party leading the vote by a wide margin. Addressing his supporters after the partial results, Orbán said: "We won a victory so big that you can see it from the moon, and you can certainly see it from Brussels".[3] Opposition leader Péter Márki-Zay admitted defeat shortly after Orbán's speech.[4] Reuters described it as a "crushing victory".[5]

The election had been predicted to be closer than in previous years, but Fidesz still held a 5-6 percentage point lead in the polls leading up to the vote.[6] OSCE deployed a full monitoring mission for the vote.[7] With Orbán seeking a fourth consecutive term in office, preliminary results showed his party Fidesz outperforming polls, winning its first absolute majority of the vote share since 2010 while expanding its supermajority to control 135 seats of the 199-seat Parliament, comfortably ahead of the opposition alliance United for Hungary, which was set to win 57 seats after 100% of the votes had been counted.[8] The Mi Hazánk party won seats for the first time, obtaining 6 seats.[9]

With 54.13% of the popular vote, Fidesz received the highest vote share by any party since the fall of communism in 1989.

Background

Amendment of the electoral law

The electoral law, under which the previous two elections were held (2014, 2018), specified the number of constituency candidates a party needed to run nationwide at 27, in at least 9 counties.

On 15 December 2020, the National Assembly, in which the governing parties held the needed 2/3 majority, voted to increase the requirements to a total of 71 constituency candidates in at least 14 counties and the capital.[10][11]

Creation of joint opposition list

In 2019 local elections, Democratic Coalition, Jobbik, LMP, MSZP, Momentum Movement, Dialogue and numerous other parties or independent candidates ran in joint lists. It enabled opposition parties to win the majority in the General Assembly of Budapest and in ten of the 23 cities with county rights.[12]

On 13 August 2020, Democratic Coalition, Jobbik, LMP, MSZP, Momentum Movement, MLP,[13] UK[14] and Dialogue decided to field joint candidates in all of Hungary’s 106 constituencies and launch a joint program for the elections.[15]

On 15 November 2020, Democratic Coalition, Jobbik, LMP, MSZP, Momentum Movement and Dialogue agreed on running with a common candidate for Prime Minister, to be selected in a primary election. They expect the candidate to be selected by 23 October 2021.[16]

On 20 December 2020, Democratic Coalition, Jobbik, LMP, MSZP, Momentum Movement and Dialogue decided on running together on a common list (unnamed as of yet), solidifying their electoral alliance.[17][18] The leaders of the respective parties have also signed a declaration containing the terms of their cooperation, titled "Korszakváltás Garanciái" ("Principles for Hungary's governance after 2022"). The opposition coalition was very ideologically diverse, something described by observers as a potential hindrance to presenting a united front to defeat Orbán.[19]

Opposition primary

Main article: 2021 Hungarian opposition primary

The Opposition primary was held in Hungary, between 12–27 September 2021 (first round) and 10–16 October 2021 (second round), to select the candidate for Prime Minister of Hungary supported by the opposition parties to form a coalition to compete in the 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election. It was the first countrywide primary election in the political history of Hungary.

On 17 October 2021, non-partisan candidate Péter Márki-Zay won in the runoff (second round) of the opposition primary, becoming the United Opposition candidate in the election for prime minister. The parties had also selected common candidates for single-member districts via the primary in the first round.[20]

Electoral system

The 199 members of the National Assembly are to be elected by two methods; 106 are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, with the remaining 93 elected from a single nationwide constituency mostly by proportional representation, via a partially compensatory system (a hybrid of parallel voting and the mixed single vote). The electoral threshold is set at 5%, although this is raised to 10% for coalitions of two parties and 15% for coalitions of three or more parties. Seats are to be allocated using the d'Hondt method.[21]

Since 2014, each of the Armenian, Bulgarian, Croatian, German, Greek, Polish, Romani, Romanian, Rusyn, Serbian, Slovakian, Slovenian, and Ukrainian ethnic minorities can win one of the 93 party lists seats if they register as a specific list and reach a lowered quota of of the total of party list votes. Each minorities are able to send a minority spokesman – without the rights of a MP – to the National Assembly, if the list does not reach this lowered quota.[22]

Due to internal disputes, the National Self-Government of Romani did not participate in the election.[23]

Parties and coalitions

Fidesz and opposition election posters in Budapest No. 16 in a parliamentary individual constituency
Fidesz and opposition election posters in Budapest No. 16 in a parliamentary individual constituency

The following parties are represented in the National Assembly, or are commonly included in public opinion polling:

Party/Coalition
Full name
Ideology Leader(s) 2018 result Seats just before the election
Votes (%) Seats
Fidesz–KDNP Fidesz
Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance
National conservatism Viktor Orbán 49.27
116 / 199
116 / 199
KDNP
Christian Democratic People's Party
Christian right Zsolt Semjén
17 / 199
17 / 199
United for Hungary
Egységben Magyarországért
Jobbik
Movement for a Better Hungary
Conservatism Péter Jakab 19.06
26 / 199
17 / 199
MSZP
Hungarian Socialist Party
Social democracy Bertalan Tóth
Ágnes Kunhalmi
11.31
17 / 199
15 / 199
Dialogue
Dialogue for Hungary
Green politics Gergely Karácsony
Tímea Szabó
3 / 199
5 / 199
DK
Democratic Coalition
Social liberalism Ferenc Gyurcsány 5.38
9 / 199
9 / 199
LMP
LMP – Hungary's Green Party
Green liberalism Máté Kanász-Nagy
Erzsébet Schmuck
7.06
8 / 199
6 / 199
Momentum
Momentum Movement
Liberalism Anna Donáth 3.06
0 / 199
0 / 199
Mi Hazánk
Our Homeland Movement
Hungarian nationalism László Toroczkai Did not exist[a]
2 / 199
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt
Hungarian Two Tailed Dog Party
Joke party Gergely Kovács 1.73
0 / 199
0 / 199
Normális Élet Pártja
Party of Normal Life
Vaccine hesitancy György Gődény 0.07[e]
0 / 199
0 / 199
Megoldás Mozgalom
Solution Movement
Digitalization György Gattyán Did not exist
0 / 199
Independents 1.01[f]
1 / 199
6 / 199
[g]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election

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  MKKP
  Fidesz–KDNP    Jobbik    MSZP    Párbeszéd    LMP    DK    Momentum    MKKP    Mi Hazánk
  Jobbik
  MSZP
  LMP
  DK
  MKKP


Results

Turnout

Turnout (within Hungary only, excluding eligible voters abroad)[24]
7:00 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 18:30 Overall
1.82% 10.31% 25.77% 40.01% 52.75% 62.92% 67.80% 70.21%

Results by party

2022 Hungary National Assembly.svg
Party Party list Constituency Total
Votes % Seats Votes % Seats Seats ±
Fidesz–KDNP 3,060,706 54.13 48 2,823,419 52.52 87 135 +2
United for Hungary 1,947,331 34.44 38 1,983,708 36.90 19 57 –8
Our Homeland Movement 332,487 5.88 6 307,064 5.71 0 6 New
Hungarian Two Tailed Dog Party 185,052 3.27 0 126,648 2.36 0 0 ±0
Solution Movement 58,929 1.04 0 64,341 1.20 0 0 New
Party of Normal Life 39,720 0.70 0 31,495 0.59 0 0 New
Leftist Alliance (ISZOMMMMP) 8,678 0.16 0 0 New
True Democratic Party 989 0.02 0 0 New
Civic Response 521 0.01 0 0 New
Our Party - IMA 326 0.01 0 0 New
Party of Greens 208 0.00 0 0 New
MSZDDSZ 177 0.00 0 0 New
Hungarian Liberal Party 152 0.00 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Germans 24,630 0.44 1 1 ±0
National Self-Government of Croats 1,760 0.03 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Slovaks 1,208 0.02 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Rusyns 645 0.01 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Romanians 526 0.01 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Serbs 418 0.01 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Ukrainians 396 0.01 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Poles 281 0.00 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Greeks 232 0.00 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Slovenes 219 0.00 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Armenians 163 0.00 0 0 ±0
National Self-Government of Bulgarians 157 0.00 0 0 ±0
Independents 0 0 –1
Total 100 93 100 106 199 0
Valid votes 5,651,057 98.84
Invalid/blank votes 66,125 1.16
Total 5,717,182 100
Registered voters/turnout 8,215,304[h] 69.59
Source: National Election Commission (100% counted)

Result by Constituency

See also: 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election results by constituency

Party list results by county and in the diaspora

County Fidesz-KDNP United for Hungary Our Homeland MKKP MM NÉP Minority lists
Bács-Kiskun 57.25 29.66 7.58 3.08 1.01 0.81
Baranya 49.67 36.08 5.93 3.54 0.93 0.86
Békés 52.81 34.36 7.64 2.62 0.92 0.89
Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén 54.38 34.29 6.89 2.31 0.99 0.78
Budapest 40.84 47.84 4.11 5.19 1.26 0.53
Csongrád-Csanád 47.44 39.69 7.34 3.61 1.10 0.72
Fejér 53.55 33.80 6.62 3.52 1.15 0.76
Győr-Moson-Sopron 57.07 30.83 6.21 3.28 1.33 0.72
Hajdú-Bihar 57.88 30.87 6.60 2.69 1.02 0.83
Heves 54.98 33.37 7.31 2.50 0.97 0.74
Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok 55.58 33.02 7.15 2.45 0.95 0.82
Komárom-Esztergom 50.53 36.32 6.72 3.39 1.11 0.95
Nógrád 59.00 29.27 7.66 2.15 0.80 0.68
Pest 50.88 36.44 5.81 4.05 1.25 0.66
Somogy 56.33 33.48 5.97 2.22 1.02 0.66
Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg 61.66 29.04 5.59 1.64 0.91 0.80
Tolna 58.95 28.49 6.67 2.46 0.90 0.81
Vas 59.94 29.55 5.59 2.89 0.89 0.72
Veszprém 52.57 34.44 6.88 3.39 1.00 0.76
Zala 56.72 31.98 6.63 2.68 0.95 0.94
Total in Hungary 52.45 36.15 6.15 3.42 1.10 0.73
Diaspora 93.89 4.12 1.06 0.61 0.10 0.22
Total 54.13 34.44 5.88 3.27 1.04 0.70

Aftermath

See also: Fifth Orbán Government and List of members of the National Assembly of Hungary (2022–2026)

Victor Orbán declaring victory
Victor Orbán declaring victory

Hungary's incumbent prime minister Viktor Orbán declared victory on Sunday night, with partial results showing his Fidesz party leading the vote by a wide margin. Addressing his supporters after the partial results, Orbán said: "We won a victory so big that you can see it from the moon, and you can certainly see it from Brussels".[3] Orbán would go on to declare his victory as a rebuke against the Hungarian left, international media, the "Brussels bureaucrats", and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.[25][26][27] Opposition leader Péter Márki-Zay admitted defeat shortly after Orbán's speech.[4] Reuters described it as a "crushing victory."[5]

The election had been predicted to be closer than in previous years, but Fidesz still held a 5–6 percentage point lead in the polls leading up to the vote.[6] OSCE deployed a full monitoring mission for the vote.[7] With Orbán seeking a fourth consecutive term in office, preliminary results showed his party Fidesz was set to outperform polls, retain its supermajority and control 135 seats of the 199-seat Parliament, comfortably ahead of the opposition alliance United for Hungary, which was set to win 57 seats after 100% of the votes had been counted.[8] The Mi Hazánk party won seats for the first time, obtaining 6 seats.[9]

Analysis

Domestically, the degree of Fidesz's victory was attributed to Fidesz's influence over the domestic media landscape, voters' desire for stability during the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, strong ideological differences within the main opposition coalition, the perception of Márki-Zay as inexperienced, and urban–rural political polarization.[28] Some analysts claimed that the majority of Jobbik voters turned out for Fidesz or Mi Hazánk instead of the united opposition.[29] Márki-Zay shared this assessment, admitting that the united opposition may have lost up to "two thirds" of Jobbik voters.[30] Other opposition leaders could not immediately agree on how to assess their defeat. DK leader Ferenc Gyurcsány and Jobbik leader Péter Jakab blamed Márky-Zay,[31][32][33] while Bernadett Szél and Ákos Hadházy did not.[34] Péter Ungár claimed that while it was a "strategic mistake" for a center-left alliance to nominate the conservative Márky-Zay, the united opposition's "elitist" rhetoric may have hurt it with rural voters even in traditionally left-leaning constituencies.[35]

Politico predicted Orbán's victory would lead to further clashes between the Hungarian government and European Union institutions.[36]

Analysts found that Fidesz performed strongest in areas with high birthrates[37] and with lower educational or economic attainment,[38][39] while the united opposition did best in Budapest and in a few other urban areas.[40]

Conduct

International observers' assessments of the electoral process were mixed. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitoring mission evaluated that "the legal framework forms an adequate basis for democratic elections to be held, but a number of key aspects fall short of international standards." The OSCE added that the election day passed peacefully, with observers assessing the process as well-organized, orderly, and smooth. The monitoring mission further reported that the elections "offered voters distinct alternatives and were well run, but, while competitive, was marred by the pervasive overlapping of government and ruling coalition’s messaging that blurred the line between state and party, as well as by media bias and opaque campaign funding."[41] Human Rights Watch stated that the election was "marred by serious concerns about its fairness," adding that the "EU has responded insufficiently to the hollowing out of democracy and the rule of law in Hungary,"[42] while Freedom House described the election as neither free nor fair.[43]

Anomalies over postal ballots

Since the 2014 parliamentary election, the right to vote is extended to Hungarian citizens, after a registration process, who do not have a permanent residence in Hungary (i.e. mostly the Hungarian diaspora in the neighboring countries, who have dual citizenship); however, they can only vote for the national list of Hungarian parties, so they do not have a chance to vote in individual constituencies. Unlike those Hungarians who have a Hungarian address but live abroad, the members of the Hungarian diaspora can cast their ballots by post without having to travel to an embassy or consulate. Critics say this method do not provide sufficient guarantees to prevent election fraud. Since 2014, the ruling party Fidesz–KDNP usually acquired more than 90 percent of the vote among the Hungarian diaspora.[44]

Transtelex.ro, a Hungarian-language Romanian news portal revealed all possible frauds allowed by the legally undeveloped system. For instance, the registration process was not secure, as the data allowed a voter to register on behalf of another person and retrieve voting documents to any address. In the case of identification sheets, it was not possible to determine with absolute certainty whether it had actually been completed by the person whose name appears on it. As a result of a change in legislation in 2021, it was possible to return the vote without the posted security sealed envelope, therefore, there was no guarantee that the ballot paper had not been replaced.[45] There were several reports that a person could also easily vote on behalf of their family members. Telex.hu reported a case that grandparents of a woman from Odorheiu Secuiesc, who resided in Budapest in the weeks of the election, filled her personal data and voted on her behalf. She said, "I have already been outraged that they have filled in the official paper and sent it for me, abusing my personal rights, but, in addition, they have voted for a party that I do not support because it represents an ideologically opposed position to me".[46]

According to reports, the activists of the Fidesz-ally Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (VMSZ) delivered the ballot papers instead of the Pošta Srbije in Vojvodina, Serbia. News portal Szabad Magyar Szó reported that the party officials sent messages to the registered voters to come to the local offices of the VMSZ to cast their ballot there.[44] In Transylvania, Romania, pro-Fidesz organizations and parties of the Hungarian minority, including the parliamentary party Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR or RMDSZ) also urged the registered voters to pass on their votes to them and not to entrust the postal service with the delivery of their ballot papers, because there is less chance that the vote will reach Hungary. In response, the Poșta Română complained against the call.[44]

In the area between Livezeni and Târgu Mureș in Romania, a bag containing partially burnt Hungarian election postal ballot papers was found on illegal waste dump on 1 April 2022. Every ballot papers were filled out with votes for the opposition United for Hungary alliance or Our Homeland Movement.[47] The National Election Office (NVI) and the Hungarian Civil Liberties Union (TASZ) filed a criminal complaint over the burnt ballot papers to the Hungarian Police. Péter Márki-Zay, prime minister-candidate of the United for Hungary called on the annulment of all postal votes. Anna Orosz of the Momentum Movement demanded that the government ensure a level playing field for all Hungarian citizens voting abroad. Jobbik politician Dániel Z. Kárpát compared the scandal with the infamous "blue-ballot" election in 1947. The Fidesz blamed the United for Hungary for burning the ballot papers, saying "the desperate left-wing is capable of anything despicable". The Fidesz-ally UDMR also condemned the "accusations of election fraud", assuming "an organized provocation" against the ethnic Hungarian minority in Romania.[44] The National Election Comission (NVB) announced on 3 April it will not investigate the issue of the discarded and burned postal ballots, because the election law only covers the territory of Hungary. The Curia of Hungary upheld the NVB's decision on 10 April 2022.[48]

The ruling Fidesz acquired 93.91 percent of the mail votes, which accounted for 8% of all votes cast on the party's national list. This meant an extra mandate for Fidesz. The United for Hungary and the Our Homeland gained only 4.1 and 1.06 percent, respectively.[49]

International responses

Heads of government and heads of state congratulating Orbán on his victory included Russian president Vladimir Putin,[50] Czech president Miloš Zeman, Slovenian prime minister Janez Janša,[51] Croatian prime minister Andrej Plenković,[52] Kazakh president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev,[53] Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, Albanian prime minister Edi Rama,[54] Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi,[55] Israeli president Isaac Herzog,[56] Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,[57] Bulgarian president Rumen Radev,[58] Kyrgyz president Sadyr Japarov,[59] Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko,[60] Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić,[59] Slovak prime minister Eduard Heger,[61] Chinese premier Li Keqiang,[59] Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer, and Czech prime minister Petr Fiala.[62]

Other politicians and political parties to congratulate Orbán included Matteo Salvini, leader of Italy's Northern League and former deputy prime minister,[63] Hunor Kelemen, leader of Romania's UDMR and deputy prime minister,[64] Nigel Farage, former leader of United Kingdom's Brexit Party,[65] former Slovak prime minister Robert Fico,[54] former U.S. president Donald Trump,[66] Marine Le Pen, leader of France's National Rally,[67] Dutch Party for Freedom politician Geert Wilders, Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina,[62] and the Spanish political party Vox.[68] Reflecting ongoing tensions over Russian sanctions, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki was slightly more reserved but said that "regardless of [Poland's] relations with Hungary, we must note that the Fidesz-Christian Democrat alliance won its fourth consecutive election with the best possible results."[54]

The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, also congratulated Orbán, while the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, expressed "acknowledgment" of the results.[59]

Two days after the election, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced that the Commission would begin cutting funding to Hungary over rule-of-law concerns.[69] Hungarian government officials criticized the move as an attempt to "punish Hungarian voters."[70]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) was formed in 2018. In November 2018, three deputies defected from Jobbik and joined Mi Hazánk. One later left, leaving the party with two deputies. Within the National Assembly, they are labeled as independents, as the party does not have its own parliamentary group. Hungarian Justice and Life Party (MIÉP), which merged in Mi Hazánk in 2021, won 0.15% in 2018.
  2. ^ Jobbik, MSZP, DK, LMP, Dialogue and Momentum have agreed to run together in an electoral alliance.
  3. ^ Aggregate results for Jobbik (26 seats, 19.06%), MSZPDialogue (20 seats, 11.91%), DK (9 seats, 5.38%), LMP (8 seats, 7.06%), Momentum (0 seats, 3.06%), Together (1 seats, 0.66%) and Independent (1 seats).
  4. ^
  5. ^ As "Common Ground Party"
  6. ^ Constituency votes only; independents cannot run for the party list component.
  7. ^ All deputies who are not members of a parliamentary group are designated as independent. There are officially 13 independent deputies in the National Assembly, of which seven are affiliated with a political party. Their composition is as follows:
  8. ^ This number consists of 7,693,695 Hungarians eligible to vote within Hungary, plus 65,480 Hungarians eligible to vote at consulates and embassies abroad, plus 456,129 people eligible to vote by mail abroad.

References

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  4. ^ a b Clinch, Matt (3 April 2022). "Prime Minister Viktor Orban declares victory in Hungary election". CNBC. Retrieved 3 April 2022.
  5. ^ a b Komuves, Anita; Szakacs, Gergely (3 April 2022). "Orban on track for crushing victory as Ukraine war solidifies support". Reuters. Retrieved 3 April 2022.
  6. ^ a b Clinch, Matt (3 April 2022). "Nationalist Viktor Orban declares victory in Hungary election". CNBC. Retrieved 3 April 2022.
  7. ^ a b "OSCE Monitors Hungarian Elections Amid Voter Fraud Fears". www.rferl.org. Retrieved 3 April 2022.
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  21. ^ Electoral system IPU
  22. ^ Nemzeti Választási Iroda National Election Office
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