Gerrymandering during the 2020 U.S. redistricting cycle had a significant impact on the 2022 election results. Republicans made gains as a result of gerrymandering in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas, while Democrats made gains as a result of gerrymandering in Illinois, New Mexico, and Oregon. Defensive gerrymanders helped both parties hold competitive seats in various states,[18] while Republican gains in New York and Democratic gains in North Carolina and Ohio were made possible because their state supreme courts overturned gerrymanders passed by their state legislatures.[1][19][20][21]
The narrow margin by which Republicans won their House majority resulted in historic legislative difficulties in the 118th Congress. Due to a number of Republican holdouts affiliated with the conservative House Freedom Caucus, McCarthy wasn’t elected Speaker of the House until the 15th round of voting, thus marking the first time since 1923 that a speaker was not elected in the first round.[22]
Results
As the usage of mail-in voting has increased in U.S. elections, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic, the results in some congressional races were not known immediately following the election, which was more competitive and closer than expected,[23] as a widely predicted red wave election did not materialize.[24] Instead, Democrats lost fewer seats than expected at less than 10 and fewer than the average (25) for the president's party since the end of World War II.[25][26] Several tossup or lean Republican races were won by Democrats, including upsets in Colorado's 8th, North Carolina's 13th, and Washington's 3rd congressional districts;[27][28][29] the Washington 3rd's seat was particularly notable because the Cook Political Report had labeled the district as lean Republican and FiveThirtyEight had Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's chance of winning at 2-in-100.[30][31] Democrats also narrowly missed a further upset for the Colorado's 3rd seat held by Republican Lauren Boebert; it was so close that it needed a recount.[32]
Democrats performed better than expected in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania,[33] benefitting from a coattail effect,[34][35] and performed well in Colorado and New England but suffered losses in New York.[1] In Florida and New York, Republicans achieved state-specific red waves,[36][37][38] and red states became redder.[39]Gerrymandering during the 2020 U.S. redistricting cycle gave each party advantages in various states; due to advantageous maps, Republicans performed well or made gains in Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Tennessee, and Democrats made gains in Illinois and New Mexico.[1][19] As of November 10, 14 seats were flipped, with Republicans gaining 11 of them for a net gain of 8 seats; Republicans needed to maintain a net gain of at least 5 seats to regain the House.[1] Republicans won the popular vote by a 3 percent margin and would have won it even if Democrats had contested more seats than they did, which may have cost them about 1–2 percent in the final popular vote margin.[19] According to Harry Enten of CNN, the final popular vote margin was the second-closest midterm margin for a U.S. House election in the last 70 years.[40]
The unprecedented degree of Republican underperformance during the election defied election analysts' predictions of heavy gains, given that while a majority of voters trusted Democrats on abortion, they were disappointed with the performance of Joe Biden and Democrats on issues facing the country, such as the economy and inflation, crime, and immigration.[3][4][5] This has been variously attributed by political commentators to the issue of abortion after Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022;[10] candidate quality among Republicans who held extremist or unpopular views,[11][12][13] such as denial of the 2020 U.S. presidential election results;[14] and youth turnout, among others.[9] According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, exit polls showed that House Democrats won independent voters by 2 percentage points, making it the first time the party holding the White House did so in a midterm election since at least 1982.[41]
Biden described the results as a "strong night" for Democrats,[42] and he urged for cooperation in Congress.[43] Senator Lindsey Graham commented: "It's certainly not a red wave, that's for darn sure. But it is clear that we will take back the House."[44] On November 9, when the results for the House were still uncertain, the Republican House leader Kevin McCarthy launched his bid to succeed long-time House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.[43] In a letter asking for support among Republicans, he wrote: "I trust you know that earning the majority is only the beginning. Now, we will be measured by what we do with our majority. Now the real work begins."[43]
Control of the House would not be known until November 16, when it became clear that the Republican Party had won a majority of the House after Mike Garcia was projected to win reelection in California's 27th congressional district, giving Republicans a total of at least 218 seats;[45] their majority was to be narrow.[46] The size of the majority remained in doubt with several races still to be called more than one week after Election Day.[47] On November 17, after Republicans were projected to win back the House, Pelosi announced that she would not seek reelection as Speaker of the House,[48] and Hakeem Jeffries was later selected as the Democratic nominee by acclamation.[49] On November 15, McCarthy won an internal Republican caucus poll as the party's nominee for Speaker of the House;[45] as several members of the Republican caucus did not vote for him and had expressed opposition to his speakership, it cast doubt on how the 2023 U.S. speaker election, which began on January 3, would unfold.[50][51] McCarthy's speaker bid was the first of a party leader since 1923 that did not succeed on the first ballot.
Federal
The 2022 election results are compared below to the 2020 election. The table does not include blank and over or under votes, both of which were included in the official results.
Net changes to U.S. House seats after the 2022 elections +1 Dem House seat +2 Dem House seats +1 Rep House seat +2 Rep House seats +3–4 Rep House seats Republicans lost 1 seat due to reapportionment
District results by vote share
Retirements
Retiring incumbents by district Democratic incumbent ran Democratic incumbent retired or lost renomination Republican incumbent ran Republican incumbent retired or lost renomination Democratic and Republican incumbent ran Vacant or new district
In total, 49 representatives and one non-voting delegate (30 Democrats and 20 Republicans) retired, 17 of whom (nine Democrats and eight Republicans) sought other offices.[52]
Three seats were left vacant on the day of the general election due to resignations or death in 2022, two of which were not filled until the next Congress.
Democrats
Two Democrats resigned before the end of their terms.
The 2020 United States census determined how many of the 435 congressional districts each state receives for the 2020 redistricting cycle. Due to population shifts, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost one seat. Conversely, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each gained one seat; and Texas gained two seats.[129]
This is a list of House seats where the winner of the 2020 presidential election and the incumbent in the district were from different parties. The results for the 2020 elections accounted for redistricting, and was representative of the new district boundaries.[139]
Democratic
This is a list of districts that voted for Trump in 2020, but had a Democratic incumbent:
In February 2022, The Guardian reported that "America is poised to have a staggeringly low number of competitive seats in the US House, an alarming trend that makes it harder to govern and exacerbates political polarization." The 2020 redistricting cycle resulted in 94% of the U.S. House running in relatively safe seats, often due to gerrymandering.[140][141]
Incumbent resigned January 1, 2022, to become CEO of TMTG. New member electedJune 7, 2022, after no candidate received a majority vote in the April 5 jungle primary. Republican hold.[143]
Rep. Ted Deutch (D), who was redistricted from the 22nd district, resigned September 30, 2022, to become CEO of the AJC. New member elected. Democratic hold.
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