2022 United States Senate election in Florida

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Senator Rubio official portrait.jpg
Nominee Marco Rubio
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Marco Rubio
Republican



The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio has announced that he will run for reelection to a third term.[1] The primary elections for Republicans and Democrats will be August 23 to finalize candidates for the November election.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Did not qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Marco Rubio
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
Sheriffs
  • 55 county sheriffs[23]
Organizations
Labor unions

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Democratic candidates[a]

Did not qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Val Demings
Alan Grayson (withdrawn)
Joshua Weil (failed to qualify)
Organizations
  • Progressives for Democracy in America - Florida[74]
  • American Youth for Climate Action[74]

Independent and third party candidates

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

Unity Party

Candidates

Declared

Independent candidates

Candidates

Declared
Did not qualify
Did not file
Withdraw
Declined

Write-ins

Candidates

Declared
Third-party and Independent candidates[a]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[84] Lean R March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[85] Likely R April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] Likely R March 1, 2022
Politico[87] Likely R April 1, 2022
RCP[88] Lean R February 24, 2022
Fox News[89] Lean R May 12, 2022

Endorsements

Marco Rubio
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
Sheriffs
  • 55 county sheriffs[91]
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Marco Rubio vs. Val Demings
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Marco
Rubio (R)
Val
Demings (D)
Undecided
[b]
Margin
Real Clear Politics August 4, 2021 – February 20, 2022 February 24, 2022 49.0% 40.0% 11.0% Rubio +9.0
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Val
Demings (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] May 26–27, 2022 655 (V) ± 3.8% 47% 41% 12%
Phillips Academy May 7–9, 2022 543 (RV) ± 4.2% 34% 36% 30%
Saint Leo University February 28 – March 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 45% 27% 28%
University of North Florida February 7–20, 2022 685 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 34% 20%
Mason-Dixon February 7–10, 2022 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% 9%
Suffolk University January 26–29, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 41% 0% 10%
St. Pete Polls November 18–19, 2021 2,896 (LV) ± 1.8% 51% 44% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 9, 2021 867 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 33% 3% 12%
842 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 36% 3% 10%
Saint Leo University October 17–23, 2021 500 (A) ± 4.5% 47% 29% 25%
VCreek/AMG (R)[B] September 23–27, 2021 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 38% 5% 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 34% 3% 11%
977 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 37% 3% 10%
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) August 14–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 55% 45%
St. Pete Polls August 16–17, 2021 2,068 (RV) ± 2.2% 48% 46% 6%
Change Research (D)[C] August 14–17, 2021 1,585 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 44% 9%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) August 4–10, 2021 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% 1% 9%
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) June 27, 2021 681 (LV) ± 3.9% 60% 40%
Hypothetical polling
Marco Rubio vs. Aramis Ayala
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Aramis
Ayala (D)
Undecided
Cherry Communications (R) April 30 – May 8, 2021 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 39%
Marco Rubio vs. Alan Grayson
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 9, 2021 867 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 34% 4% 12%
842 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 37% 4% 10%
VCreek/AMG (R)[B] September 23–27, 2021 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 32% 10% 14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 33% 4% 12%
977 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 36% 4% 11%
Marco Rubio vs. Stephanie Murphy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Stephanie
Murphy (D)
Undecided
Cherry Communications (R) April 30 – May 8, 2021 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 41%
Marco Rubio vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Mason-Dixon February 24–28, 2021 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%
Data for Progress (D)[D] September 15–22, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 43% 15%

Notes

  1. ^ a b The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Giffords
  2. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Americas PAC
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund

References

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Official campaign websites