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County results Rubio: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Demings: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Florida |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida.
Rubio was first elected in 2010, filling the seat of appointed Senator George LeMieux, and he had announced that he would run for reelection to a third term.[1] The primary elections for Republicans and Democrats took place on August 23 to finalize candidates for the November election.[2][3] Rubio won the uncontested Republican primary, while incumbent U.S. Representative Val Demings won the Democratic nomination. Rubio won the election, becoming the first Republican to win re-election to a third term in Florida history. This is the latest election in which Miami-Dade County voted for a Republican nominee for Senate, the last time being in 2010, when Marco Rubio ran for his first term.[4]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ricardo De La Fuente |
Val Demings |
Brian Rush |
William Sanchez |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of North Florida | August 8–12, 2022 | 529 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 2% | 80% | 4% | 4% | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Val Demings | 1,263,706 | 84.3 | |
Democratic | Brian Rush | 94,185 | 6.3 | |
Democratic | William Sanchez | 84,576 | 5.6 | |
Democratic | Ricardo De La Fuente | 56,749 | 3.8 | |
Total votes | 1,499,216 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[97] | Likely R | October 18, 2022 |
Inside Elections[98] | Likely R | August 25, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[99] | Likely R | August 24, 2022 |
Politico[100] | Likely R | November 3, 2022 |
RCP[101] | Lean R | February 24, 2022 |
Fox News[102] | Lean R | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ[103] | Likely R | July 20, 2022 |
538[104] | Solid R | November 4, 2022 |
The Economist[105] | Likely R | September 7, 2022 |
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Val Demings (D) |
Undecided [b] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | October 17, 2022 – November 6, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 52.4% | 43.6% | 4.0% | Rubio +8.8 |
FiveThirtyEight | September 18, 2022 – November 4, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 52.3% | 43.5% | 4.2% | Rubio +8.8 |
270towin | November 4–7, 2022 | November 8, 2022 | 51.6% | 42.4% | 6.0% | Rubio +9.2 |
Average | 52.1% | 43.2% | 4.7% | Rubio +8.9 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Val Demings (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 42% | 2%[c] | 4% |
Data for Progress (D) | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,436 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 43% | 2%[d] | – |
Amber Integrated (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 4%[e] | 7% |
Civiqs | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 772 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 45% | 2%[f] | 1% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 1, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 45% | 1%[g] | 3% |
Siena College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 659 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 43% | 2%[h] | 4% |
Victory Insights | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 46% | – | 5% |
Florida State University/YouGov | October 20–31, 2022 | 1,117 (RV) | – | 51% | 44% | – | – |
University of North Florida | October 17–24, 2022 | 622 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 54% | 43% | <1%[i] | 3% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 19–23, 2022 | 1,251 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 44% | 2%[j] | 2% |
Florida Atlantic University | October 12–16, 2022 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 42% | 3%[k] | 7% |
RMG Research (R)[A] | October 10–13, 2022 | 685 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | September 26–28, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | 2% | 10% |
Siena College | September 18–25, 2022 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 41% | 2%[l] | 9% |
Civiqs | September 17–20, 2022 | 617 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 47% | 3%[m] | 2% |
Suffolk University | September 15–18, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 41% | 4%[n] | 9% |
Sachs Media | September 10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Kurt Jetta (D)[B] | September 9–10, 2022 | 999 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | – | 12% |
563 (LV) | 50% | 45% | – | 5% | |||
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 815 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 5–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) | August 29 – September 4, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | August 24–31, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[C] | August 25–30, 2022 | 3,017 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
Impact Research (D)[D] | August 12–18, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
Kurt Jetta (D)[B] | August 12–14, 2022 | 996 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | – | 14% |
610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | – | 7% | ||
University of North Florida | August 8–12, 2022 | 1,624 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 48% | 7% | 2% |
Change Research (D)[E] | August 2–5, 2022 | 1,031 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | – | 7% |
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[C] | July 26–31, 2022 | 2,244 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
Kurt Jetta (D)[B] | July 9, 2022 | 906 (A) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
732 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 40% | – | 16% | ||
428 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | May 26–27, 2022 | 655 (V) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Phillips Academy | May 7–9, 2022 | 543 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 34% | 36% | – | 30% |
Moore Information Group (R) | March 14–19, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 32% | 8%[o] | 12% |
Saint Leo University | February 28 – March 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% |
Kurt Jetta (D)[B] | March 4, 2022 | 1,098 (A) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 26% | – | 29% |
893 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% | ||
446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 35% | – | 16% | ||
University of North Florida | February 7–20, 2022 | 685 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 34% | – | 20% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | February 7–10, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 41% | 0% | 10% |
St. Pete Polls | November 18–19, 2021 | 2,896 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 33% | 3% | 12% |
842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 36% | 3% | 10% | ||
Saint Leo University | October 17–23, 2021 | 500 (A) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 29% | – | 25% |
VCreek/AMG (R)[G] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 38% | 5% | 15% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 34% | 3% | 11% |
977 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 37% | 3% | 10% | ||
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) | August 14–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
St. Pete Polls | August 16–17, 2021 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
Change Research (D)[H] | August 14–17, 2021 | 1,585 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) | June 27, 2021 | 681 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 60% | 40% | – | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Aramis Ayala (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cherry Communications (R) | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 39% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Alan Grayson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | 4% | 12% |
842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 37% | 4% | 10% | ||
VCreek/AMG (R)[G] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 32% | 10% | 14% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 33% | 4% | 12% |
977 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 36% | 4% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Stephanie Murphy (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cherry Communications (R) | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon | February 24–28, 2021 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Data for Progress (D)[I] | September 15–22, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
Marco Rubio | Val Demings | |||||
1 | Oct. 18, 2022 | Palm Beach State College | Todd McDermott | Youtube | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Marco Rubio (incumbent) | 4,474,847 | 57.68% | +5.70% | |
Democratic | Val Demings | 3,201,522 | 41.27% | -3.04% | |
Libertarian | Dennis Misigoy | 32,177 | 0.41% | -1.71% | |
Independent | Steven B. Grant | 31,816 | 0.41% | N/A | |
Independent | Tuan TQ Nguyen | 17,385 | 0.22% | N/A | |
Write-in | 267 | 0.0% | ±0.0% | ||
Total votes | 7,758,126 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
Demographic subgroup | Demings | Rubio | No Answer |
% of Voters |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||
Men | 37 | 62 | 1 | 49 |
Women | 48 | 51 | 1 | 51 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | 57 | 41 | 2 | 7 |
25–29 years old | 58 | 39 | 2 | 4 |
30–39 years old | 55 | 43 | N/A | 13 |
40–49 years old | 41 | 58 | 1 | 12 |
50–64 years old | 38 | 62 | N/A | 32 |
65 and older | 37 | 62 | 1 | 33 |
Race | ||||
White | 35 | 64 | 1 | 64 |
Black | 90 | 9 | N/A | 11 |
Latino | 41 | 56 | 2 | 21 |
Race by gender | ||||
White men | 28 | 71 | N/A | 32 |
White women | 43 | 57 | 2 | 32 |
Black men | 89 | 11 | 1 | 5 |
Black women | 92 | 8 | N/A | 6 |
Latino men | 42 | 55 | 2 | 10 |
Latina women | 41 | 57 | 1 | 11 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 35 | 63 | 2 | 15 |
Some college education | 42 | 58 | 1 | 25 |
Associate degree | 42 | 57 | 2 | 19 |
Bachelor's degree | 44 | 54 | 1 | 24 |
Advanced degree | 48 | 51 | 1 | 17 |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 97 | 3 | N/A | 28 |
Republicans | 3 | 97 | 1 | 42 |
Independents | 48 | 49 | 2 | 30 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 91 | 8 | 1 | 20 |
Moderates | 57 | 41 | 1 | 39 |
Conservatives | 7 | 93 | 2 | 42 |
Marital status | ||||
Married | 40 | 60 | 1 | 59 |
Unmarried | 50 | 48 | 2 | 41 |
Gender by marital status | ||||
Married men | 33 | 66 | 1 | 30 |
Married women | 46 | 53 | 1 | 29 |
Unmarried men | 48 | 51 | 3 | 18 |
Unmarried women | 52 | 47 | 2 | 23 |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 42 | 58 | 4 | 11 |
No | 44 | 55 | N/A | 89 |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Crime | 32 | 66 | 2 | 10 |
Inflation | 28 | 72 | 1 | 39 |
Gun policy | 63 | 36 | N/A | 10 |
Immigration | 12 | 88 | N/A | 10 |
Abortion | 81 | 18 | N/A | 24 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 45 | 54 | 1 | 46 |
Suburban | 42 | 57 | 2 | 44 |
Rural | 31 | 68 | N/A | 10 |
Source: CNN[132] |