2022 United States Senate election in Florida

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Senator Rubio official portrait (cropped).jpg
Val Demings, Official Portrait, 115th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Marco Rubio Val Demings
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,474,847 3,201,522
Percentage 57.7% 41.3%

2022 United States Senate election in Florida results map by county.svg
County results
Rubio:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Demings:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Marco Rubio
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Marco Rubio
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida.

Rubio was first elected in 2010, filling the seat of appointed Senator George LeMieux, and he had announced that he would run for reelection to a third term.[1] The primary elections for Republicans and Democrats took place on August 23 to finalize candidates for the November election.[2][3] Rubio won the uncontested Republican primary, while incumbent U.S. Representative Val Demings won the Democratic nomination. Rubio won the election, becoming the first Republican to win re-election to a third term in Florida history. This is the latest election in which Miami-Dade County voted for a Republican nominee for Senate, the last time being in 2010, when Marco Rubio ran for his first term.[4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Did not qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Marco Rubio
U.S. Presidents
Sheriffs
  • 55 county sheriffs[25]
Organizations
Labor unions

Democratic primary

Immigration attorney William Sanchez finished third in the primary
Immigration attorney William Sanchez finished third in the primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not qualify

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Val Demings
Alan Grayson (withdrawn)
Joshua Weil (failed to qualify)
Organizations
  • Progressives for Democracy in America - Florida[86]
  • American Youth for Climate Action[86]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ricardo
De La Fuente
Val
Demings
Brian
Rush
William
Sanchez
Undecided
University of North Florida August 8–12, 2022 529 (LV) ± 6.0% 2% 80% 4% 4% 10%

Results

Results by county:  .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}  Demings   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   >90%      Rush   30–40%   40–50%
Results by county:
  Demings
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Rush
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[87]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Val Demings 1,263,706 84.3
Democratic Brian Rush 94,185 6.3
Democratic William Sanchez 84,576 5.6
Democratic Ricardo De La Fuente 56,749 3.8
Total votes 1,499,216 100.0

Independent and third-party candidates

Former Black Point supervisor Dennis Misigoy was the Libertarian nominee
Former Black Point supervisor Dennis Misigoy was the Libertarian nominee
Former Boynton Beach mayor Steven B. Grant ran as an Independent
Former Boynton Beach mayor Steven B. Grant ran as an Independent
Businessman Howard Knepper ran a write-in campaign
Businessman Howard Knepper ran a write-in campaign

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Qualified

Unity Party

Candidates

Did not file

Independent candidates

Candidates

Declared
Did not qualify
Did not file
Withdraw
Declined

Write-ins

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[97] Likely R October 18, 2022
Inside Elections[98] Likely R August 25, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[99] Likely R August 24, 2022
Politico[100] Likely R November 3, 2022
RCP[101] Lean R February 24, 2022
Fox News[102] Lean R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[103] Likely R July 20, 2022
538[104] Solid R November 4, 2022
The Economist[105] Likely R September 7, 2022

Endorsements

Marco Rubio (R)
Val Demings (D)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Marco
Rubio (R)
Val
Demings (D)
Undecided
[b]
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 17, 2022 – November 6, 2022 November 8, 2022 52.4% 43.6% 4.0% Rubio +8.8
FiveThirtyEight September 18, 2022 – November 4, 2022 November 8, 2022 52.3% 43.5% 4.2% Rubio +8.8
270towin November 4–7, 2022 November 8, 2022 51.6% 42.4% 6.0% Rubio +9.2
Average 52.1% 43.2% 4.7% Rubio +8.9
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Val
Demings (D)
Other Undecided
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 52% 42% 2%[c] 4%
Data for Progress (D) November 2–6, 2022 1,436 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 43% 2%[d]
Amber Integrated (R) November 1–2, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 40% 4%[e] 7%
Civiqs October 29 – November 2, 2022 772 (LV) ± 3.9% 52% 45% 2%[f] 1%
InsiderAdvantage (R) November 1, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 45% 1%[g] 3%
Siena College October 30 – November 1, 2022 659 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 43% 2%[h] 4%
Victory Insights October 30 – November 1, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.8% 50% 46% 5%
Florida State University/YouGov October 20–31, 2022 1,117 (RV) 51% 44%
University of North Florida October 17–24, 2022 622 (LV) ± 4.7% 54% 43% <1%[i] 3%
Data for Progress (D) October 19–23, 2022 1,251 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 44% 2%[j] 2%
Florida Atlantic University October 12–16, 2022 719 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 42% 3%[k] 7%
RMG Research (R)[A] October 10–13, 2022 685 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 45% 5%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy September 26–28, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 41% 2% 10%
Siena College September 18–25, 2022 669 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 41% 2%[l] 9%
Civiqs September 17–20, 2022 617 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 47% 3%[m] 2%
Suffolk University September 15–18, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 41% 4%[n] 9%
Sachs Media September 10, 2022 600 (LV) 49% 46% 5%
Kurt Jetta (D)[B] September 9–10, 2022 999 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 40% 12%
563 (LV) 50% 45% 5%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 815 (RV) ± 4.3% 50% 41% 9%
InsiderAdvantage (R) September 5–6, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 44% 10%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) August 29 – September 4, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 44% 9%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) August 24–31, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 47% 4%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[C] August 25–30, 2022 3,017 (LV) ± 1.8% 46% 45% 9%
Impact Research (D)[D] August 12–18, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 46% 5%
Kurt Jetta (D)[B] August 12–14, 2022 996 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% 14%
610 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 41% 7%
University of North Florida August 8–12, 2022 1,624 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 48% 7% 2%
Change Research (D)[E] August 2–5, 2022 1,031 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 46% 7%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[C] July 26–31, 2022 2,244 (LV) ± 2.1% 45% 45% 10%
Kurt Jetta (D)[B] July 9, 2022 906 (A) ± 3.3% 46% 38% 16%
732 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 40% 16%
428 (LV) ± 4.7% 50% 42% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[F] May 26–27, 2022 655 (V) ± 3.8% 47% 41% 12%
Phillips Academy May 7–9, 2022 543 (RV) ± 4.2% 34% 36% 30%
Moore Information Group (R) March 14–19, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 32% 8%[o] 12%
Saint Leo University February 28 – March 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 45% 27% 28%
Kurt Jetta (D)[B] March 4, 2022 1,098 (A) ± 3.0% 45% 26% 29%
893 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 27% 28%
446 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 35% 16%
University of North Florida February 7–20, 2022 685 (RV) ± 3.7% 46% 34% 20%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy February 7–10, 2022 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% 9%
Suffolk University January 26–29, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 41% 0% 10%
St. Pete Polls November 18–19, 2021 2,896 (LV) ± 1.8% 51% 44% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 9, 2021 867 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 33% 3% 12%
842 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 36% 3% 10%
Saint Leo University October 17–23, 2021 500 (A) ± 4.5% 47% 29% 25%
VCreek/AMG (R)[G] September 23–27, 2021 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 38% 5% 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 34% 3% 11%
977 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 37% 3% 10%
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) August 14–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 55% 45%
St. Pete Polls August 16–17, 2021 2,068 (RV) ± 2.2% 48% 46% 6%
Change Research (D)[H] August 14–17, 2021 1,585 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 44% 9%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) August 4–10, 2021 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% 1% 9%
Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) June 27, 2021 681 (LV) ± 3.9% 60% 40%
Hypothetical polling
Marco Rubio vs. Aramis Ayala
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Aramis
Ayala (D)
Undecided
Cherry Communications (R) April 30 – May 8, 2021 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 39%
Marco Rubio vs. Alan Grayson
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Alan
Grayson (D)
Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 9, 2021 867 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 34% 4% 12%
842 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 37% 4% 10%
VCreek/AMG (R)[G] September 23–27, 2021 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 32% 10% 14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 33% 4% 12%
977 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 36% 4% 11%
Marco Rubio vs. Stephanie Murphy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Stephanie
Murphy (D)
Undecided
Cherry Communications (R) April 30 – May 8, 2021 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 41%
Marco Rubio vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Mason-Dixon February 24–28, 2021 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%
Data for Progress (D)[I] September 15–22, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 43% 15%

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Florida debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Marco Rubio Val Demings
1 Oct. 18, 2022 Palm Beach State College Todd McDermott Youtube P P

Results

United States Senate election in Florida, 2022[131]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Marco Rubio (incumbent) 4,474,847 57.68% +5.70%
Democratic Val Demings 3,201,522 41.27% -3.04%
Libertarian Dennis Misigoy 32,177 0.41% -1.71%
Independent Steven B. Grant 31,816 0.41% N/A
Independent Tuan TQ Nguyen 17,385 0.22% N/A
Write-in 267 0.0% ±0.0%
Total votes 7,758,126 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Demings Rubio No
Answer
% of
Voters
Gender
Men 37 62 1 49
Women 48 51 1 51
Age
18–24 years old 57 41 2 7
25–29 years old 58 39 2 4
30–39 years old 55 43 N/A 13
40–49 years old 41 58 1 12
50–64 years old 38 62 N/A 32
65 and older 37 62 1 33
Race
White 35 64 1 64
Black 90 9 N/A 11
Latino 41 56 2 21
Race by gender
White men 28 71 N/A 32
White women 43 57 2 32
Black men 89 11 1 5
Black women 92 8 N/A 6
Latino men 42 55 2 10
Latina women 41 57 1 11
Education
High school or less 35 63 2 15
Some college education 42 58 1 25
Associate degree 42 57 2 19
Bachelor's degree 44 54 1 24
Advanced degree 48 51 1 17
Party ID
Democrats 97 3 N/A 28
Republicans 3 97 1 42
Independents 48 49 2 30
Ideology
Liberals 91 8 1 20
Moderates 57 41 1 39
Conservatives 7 93 2 42
Marital status
Married 40 60 1 59
Unmarried 50 48 2 41
Gender by marital status
Married men 33 66 1 30
Married women 46 53 1 29
Unmarried men 48 51 3 18
Unmarried women 52 47 2 23
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 42 58 4 11
No 44 55 N/A 89
Most important issue facing the country
Crime 32 66 2 10
Inflation 28 72 1 39
Gun policy 63 36 N/A 10
Immigration 12 88 N/A 10
Abortion 81 18 N/A 24
Area type
Urban 45 54 1 46
Suburban 42 57 2 44
Rural 31 68 N/A 10
Source: CNN[132]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  4. ^ Misigoy (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  5. ^ Misigoy (L) with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  7. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  8. ^ "Not going to vote" with 2%
  9. ^ "Refused" with <1%
  10. ^ Misigoy (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  12. ^ "Not going to vote" with 2%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  14. ^ Misigoy (L) with 1%; Grant (I) with 1%; Nguyen (I) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  15. ^ Barberena with 5%, "None" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll conducted for Tripp Scott, a law firm associated with the Florida Republican Party.
  2. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Rubio
  3. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Progress Florida and Florida Watch
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by EMILY's List
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by Giffords, which supports Demings
  7. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Americas PAC
  8. ^ This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund

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