35 of 100 seats (34 seats of Class III + special elections)
Net seat change
None or Democratic +1
Map of the 2022 Senate races Democratic gain Democratic hold Republican hold Pending runoffRectangular inset (Oklahoma): both seats were up for election
While midterm elections typically see the incumbent president's party lose a substantial number of seats in Congress,[6][7] Democrats dramatically outperformed the historical trend,[8][9][10] a widely anticipated red wave election did not materialize,[11] and the race for control was closer than expected.[12][13][14] Republicans did well in strongholds like Florida, Tennessee, and Texas, and also saw a surge in traditionally Democratic New York, which was enough for them to flip the House with a slight majority; this was somewhat offset by a historic underperformance in critical battlegrounds, in particular in the Senate, where voters rejected Republicans that were backed by Donald Trump or that denied Trump's loss in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, defying election analysts' predictions and expectations of a more Republican-leaning national environment.[2][12]
Democrats had a net gain of two in the gubernatorial elections, flipping governorships in Arizona,[15] Maryland, and Massachusetts;[16] conversely, Republicans flipped Nevada's governorship.[17] Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida—previously considered one of the nation's most contested swing states—won reelection in an unexpectedly large landslide, leading to analysts calling him the election night's biggest winner as well as the Republican Party's only big win.[12][18][19] In the state legislative elections, Democrats flipped both chambers of the Michigan Legislature, the Minnesota Senate, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, and achieved a coalition government in the Alaska Senate. As a result of these legislative and gubernatorial results, Democrats gained government trifectas in Michigan for the first time since 1983,[20] and in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Minnesota for the first time since 2015.[21]
Issues that favored Democrats included, among others, significant concern over extremism and a lack of respect for democratic norms among Republicans, along with abortion rights and a potential Trump 2024 presidential campaign.[13][14][18] Raised concern over climate change and the relative popularity of Biden's climate policy also played a role.[32][33][34] Both general turnout and turnout among young voters aged 18–29, which are a strongly Democratic constituency,[35] were the second-highest (after 2018) of any midterm since 1970.[36][37] The elections continued demographic trends starting in 2012, in which Republicans made gains among the working class, especially whites but since 2016 also some minorities like Hispanics,[38] while Democrats continued to improve among affluent and college-educated whites.[12]
After the 2020 elections, Democrats had a government trifecta at the federal level for the first time since the 111th United States Congress in 2011. This gave them a relatively straightforward path to enacting legislation, but the presence of more centrist or conservative Democrats, namely Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema,[39] meant that most of the more expansive and often more progressive legislation was blocked.[40][41][42] In the White House, Joe Biden started his term out with positive approval ratings,[43] but as the year progressed with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and the Fall of Kabul,[44] and as key legislation stalled,[45][46] Biden and Democrats lost popularity and suffered electoral losses,[47][48][49] including an upset loss in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election,[50] which were widely characterized as a red wave election and as a prelude to the 2022 midterms.[51][52] In addition, the incumbent president almost always lose seats in Congress and often at least one chamber or overall control, in particular since the post-war period.[53][54]
After suffering losses in 2021,[67][68][69]progressives within the Democratic Party saw improved but mixed results in 2022, with both progressives and moderates winning important races.[70][71][72] In 2022, Democratic campaign arms aided radical-right candidates in Republican primary elections, believing they would be easier opponents in the general election.[73][74] Republican primary candidates who had been endorsed by former president Donald Trump tended to win,[75] with his support being crucial for many,[76][77] though his percentage was lower than in previous years, largely due to him taking riskier endorsements.[78][79] Generally, candidates that received Trump's endorsements were on the far right and those who supported his false claims that there was widespread fraud in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.[80][81] Trump issued primary endorsements to 37 candidates who ran in the general elections in November that were rated as competitive by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.[82]
The economy, inflation in particular,[85][94] remained the top issue for voters throughout 2022.[95][96][97] According to an October 2022 Monmouth University poll, 82 percent of Americans considered inflation to be an "extremely or very essential issue" for the government to handle, and seven in ten Americans disapproved of Biden's handling of the cost of living rise.[87] It is not clear whether there is a correlation between rise of inflation, particularly the rise of gas prices,[98][99] and lower presidential approval ratings,[100] which can cause negative election results; some studies suggest that historically it can hurt the incumbent president in terms of election results,[83] but that this got weaker in recent years.[101][102]
Following the ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022,[103] Democrats outperformed Biden's results in the 2020 U.S. presidential election in several House special elections, with abortion cited as a major contributor to their victories,[104] as many Republican-controlled states passed restrictive abortion laws, including a total or near-total ban on the procedure.[93] Democrats tried to pass a federal law to protect the right to abortion but did not have enough support in the Senate, and abortion was prioritized as an issue for the general elections.[93][105]
The Dobbs ruling made abortion more important for voters,[91] with a rise in support among women for the Democratic Party coming after the decision,[106] and at least six states had an abortion-related ballot initiative, the most ever in a single year.[107] Additionally, Republicans suffered from internal division on the issue. Lindsey Graham, who was not up for reelection in 2022, introduced a federal bill to ban abortions after 15 weeks; most Republicans argued that abortion regulations should be left to the states,[93] and Graham's proposal received a mixed response among Republicans.[108] Despite controlling the state legislature, an anti-abortion law failed to pass in South Carolina because Republicans could not agree on how restrictive it should be.[109]
Democrats campaigned on strengthening democratic institutions,[120] having said that Trumpist supporters grew increasingly authoritarian or "semi-fascist",[121][122][123] as Biden had called them in August and September 2022,[124][125][126] since Trump and many Republicans continue to contest the results of the 2020 presidential election;[93] as recently as September 2022, Trump said he should be reinstated as president.[93] Democrats also argued that Republicans regaining power would harm U.S. governance,[127] citing the many Republican candidates who denied the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election,[93] which news outlets tracked. As of July 2022, at least 120 Republican candidates were 2020 election deniers, a majority of whom ran for the House.[128]
During the party primaries, Republican candidates alleged fraud irrespective of the results; among those who did so and later won the party nomination, Kari Lake said: "We out-voted the fraud."[129] During the general election campaign, Lake refused to say that she would accept the result if she does not win the election,[2] stating that she was "going to win the election, and I will accept that result."[130] Additionally, Republican-controlled states passed laws restricting voting rights or making it harder to vote, which particularly affects minority voters and critics say also reflects a legacy of racial disenfranchisement.[131] In November 2022, Biden said that democracy was on the ballot and cited the attack on Paul Pelosi, husband of the Democratic House leader Nancy Pelosi, stating that Trump's false claims about a stolen election in 2020 had "fuelled the dangerous rise of political violence and voter intimidation over the past two years".[132]
The Democratic Party filed lawsuits to remove Green Party candidates from the ballot, most notably the North Carolina Green Party candidate Matthew Hoh in the 2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina,[133][134][135] citing an ongoing investigation into the party for fraudulant signatures.[136] Their warning that the Greens could divide progressive voters and give Republicans wins in tight races nonetheless received widespread criticism,[137] and Hoh appeared on the ballot.[138]
Republicans argued for parents having more control over what their children are taught in schools,[93] being concerned in particular by discussions on topics such as race,[139]gender identity, and sexuality.[140] Democrats dismissed these concerns as a push for censorship, saying that it would especially harm LGBT students.[93] This came amid increased efforts among Republicans to ban books that discuss those topics, particularly in Republican-controlled states like Florida.[141]
In this election, climate change was a significant issue.[144][145] 71% of voters considered climate change as a serious problem,[34] even though there were differences in the level of concern. One poll showed that for 51% of voters climate change was one of the more important issues.[146] According to another poll, 64% of people of color were more likely to vote for a candidate that is addressing climate change as one of the three most important points in their agenda.[147] A third poll showed that 9% of voters considered climate change as the most important issue.[148]
Progressive Democrats pushed for legislation to combat the negative effects of climate change, including incentives towards the adoption of renewable energy and electric cars.[93] In August 2022, Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act, which also included climate change-related policies to address it,[149] and has been described as the first major or significant climate change law,[150][151] as well as the largest investment to fight climate change in U.S. history.[152]
Immigration is among the issues where the United States is divided the most.[153] Biden revoked some of Trump's anti-immigration policies but not others,[93] and Republicans pledged to continue Trump's hardline policies.[154][155] An increase of over 385% in border encounters from 2020 to 2022 gave Republicans an edge over Democrats, as Republicans blamed it on Biden and Democrats,[93] and polling showed that voters moderately preferred Republicans over Democrats for solving immigration problems.[156][157][158]
In a September 2022 political stunt, Florida governor Ron DeSantis had migrants sent to Martha's Vineyard.[159][160][161] This was also done by Republican governors in Arizona and Texas who sent migrants to northerner, more liberal states,[162] which was criticized by Biden, Democrats, and migrant rights groups as a "cruel political theatre".[93]
Since Biden revealed a plan for student loan forgiveness in August 2022 through an executive order based upon the Higher Education Relief Opportunities For Students Act of 2003,[163][164] both parties sought electoral gains from the decision, with Democrats potentially attracting young voters who would benefit from the program, and Republicans targeting blue-collar workers who likely did not go to college and would be unwilling to help subsidize the education debts of others.[165] A majority of voters were found to support student loan forgiveness in the run-up to the election.[166][167]
During the election campaign, conservatives and Republicans attempted to find plaintliffs,[168] as part of an effort to sue the Biden administration over the proposal, and take the case to the Supreme Court;[169][170] this temporarily blocked the plan, which included cancelling up to $10,000 of student debt for those making less than $125,000 a year and up to $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients,[171][172] as the courts will have to consider legal challanges.[173][174][175] In November 2022, a federal judge in Texas stuck down Biden's student loan plan.[176] In response, Biden extended a moratorium on the plan from January 2023 to June 2023.[177]
Republicans were benefiting from Biden's low U.S. presidential approval ratings,[91] hovering from 30–40% for much of the year.[178][179] His ratings briefly increased after several legislative victories in August and September 2022;[180][181][182] by October, they again plateaued when voters focused back on the state of the economy.[183][184]
The Russian invasion of Ukraine was the major foreign policy issue,[185][186][187] shifting support for Biden and highlighting the Republican Party's perceived support for Russia and Vladimir Putin.[188][189][190] One day before election day, Russian entrepreneur Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was in the center of accusations of hidden propaganda activities by the Russian government, in regard to Russian interference in U.S. elections, wrote on Vkontakte: "We have interfered, we are interfering and we will continue to interfere."[191]
Campaign spending
With a total of almost 17 billion U.S. dollars in expenditure, the election campaigns for the 2022 midterm elections were the most expensive in the history of the United States.[192]
Federal elections
Senate elections
Control of Senate seats by class after the 2022 elections
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate were up for election, including all 34 Class 3 Senator seats. Concurrent with the regularly scheduled Class 3 elections, a special election was held to fill a Class 2 vacancy in Oklahoma. As senators serve six-year terms, the last regularly scheduled elections for Class 3 senators were held in 2016. The winners of the Senate elections will be sworn in on January 3, 2023, for the 118th U.S. Congress. Going into the election, Democrats and Republicans both held 50 seats,[c] but Democrats had a majority due to their control of the vice presidency, which has the power to break ties in the Senate.[2] In the Senate elections, Republicans defended 21 seats, including six seats left open by retirements. Democrats defended fourteen seats, one of which was an open seat.[193]
This was the third consecutive midterm election in the incumbent president's first term in which the party not occupying the White House was able to win control of the House but was unable to win the Senate. Democrats performed better than expected in New Hampshire,[2] Pennsylvania, where they gained a seat (the sole flipping seat), and Nevada,[194][195] which allowed them to retain control of the Senate, with the possibility of an increased majority if they win the runoff election in Georgia on December 6, 2022.[2][196]
Special elections
Two special elections took place in 2022 to replace senators who resigned during the 117th U.S. Congress:[197]
Oklahoma Class 2: Incumbent Jim Inhofe announced in February 2022 that he would resign from the Senate at the end of the 117th Congress on January 3, 2023. A special election to fill the remaining four years of his term was held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with the regular election for the Class 3 seat, held by James Lankford.[204] Republican Congressman Markwayne Mullin won the special election to fill the remainder of Inhofe's term.[205]
All 435 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election. Forty-nine representatives and one non-voting delegate (30 Democrats, 20 Republicans) did not seek re-election, and three seats were vacant at the time of the election. The incumbents in the 2022 elections were determined in the 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections and subsequent special elections. These elections were the first conducted after the 2020 U.S. redistricting cycle, causing several districts to lack an incumbent or have multiple incumbents. Democrats held a 220–212 majority at the time of the election.[206] The race was competitive and closer than expected,[2] with Republicans projected to gain control of the chamber a week later with a slim majority,[5] 220 to 213.[207]
Elections were held for the governorships of 36 U.S. states and three insular areas. As most governors serve four-year terms, the last regularly scheduled elections for most seats up for election in 2022 were held in 2018. The governors of New Hampshire and Vermont each serve two-year terms, so incumbents in these two states were determined in 2020. Prior to the election, Republicans held a total of 28 seats, 20 of which were up for election in 2022, and Democrats held 22 seats, 16 of which were up for election.[223] Democrats picked up the seats of retiring and term-limited Republican incumbents in Arizona,[15] Maryland, and Massachusetts.[16]
Democratic incumbents won high-profile contests in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Democrat Josh Shapiro's defeat of Republican Doug Mastriano allowed Democrats to retain control of Pennsylvania's gubernatorial office.[224] A Democratic incumbent also prevailed in a closely contested race in Kansas,[225] while the party held onto Oregon in another closely contested race.[226] She is set to be one of the first lesbian governors in the United States,[227] along with Maura Healey in Massachusetts.[2][16] Meanwhile, Republican incumbents won reelection in major races in Florida, Georgia, and Texas,[16] held onto Arkansas,[224] and Mike Dunleavy won reelection to a second term, becoming the first Republican governor of Alaska to be reelected to a second term since Jay Hammond in 1978 and the first governor, regardless of political affiliation, to be reelected to a second term since Tony Knowles in 1998.[228] Democrats made a further gain in Arizona,[15] which set the record for most female governors in U.S. history.[229][230] The sole gain for Republicans was in Nevada,[17] where Joe Lombardo narrowly defeated the incumbent Democratic governor Steve Sisolak.[231][232]
Results from 2022 U.S. attorney general elections Democratic gain Republican gain Democratic hold Republican hold Nonpartisan Results unknown No election
Various state-wide executive positions across several states held elections in 2022. State attorneys general were elected in thirty U.S. states, three territories, and one federal district. The previous elections for this group of states took place in 2018.[233] The attorney general of Vermont serves two-year terms and was last elected in 2020.[234] While Democrats flipped Vermont and Charity Clark became the state's first female attorney general,[235][236] one notable Republican upset was Brenna Bird's narrow win over Tom Miller,[237] the incumbent Democratic attorney general of Iowa and the longest-serving state attorney general in U.S. history.[2][238]
Secretaries of state were elected in twenty-seven U.S. states. The previous elections for this group of states took place in 2018.[239] The secretary of state of Vermont serves two-year terms and was last elected in 2020.[240]State treasurers and equivalents were elected in twenty-seven U.S. states, plus a special election in Utah. The previous elections for this group of states took place in 2018.[241] The treasurer of Vermont serves two-year terms and was last elected in 2020.[242]
Numerous states held judicial elections in 2022.[243] Republicans gained a majority on the North Carolina Supreme Court by picking up two seats, raising the possibility of mid-decade redistricting. In another election with major redistricting implications, Republicans retained a majority on the Supreme Court of Ohio.[244][245][246]
In 2022, 46 states held regularly scheduled elections in 88 legislative chambers, although not all seats were up in the legislatures holding elections, as some states use staggered terms. Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia did not hold regularly scheduled state legislative elections, as those states all hold such elections in odd-numbered years. The District of Columbia and the U.S. territories of American Samoa, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands also held legislative elections in 2022. As in the U.S. House of Representatives, these elections were the first conducted after the 2020 U.S. census and the 2022 U.S. redistricting. Prior to the election, Republicans controlled 60 legislative chambers, Democrats controlled 37 chambers, and a cross-party coalition controlled the Alaska House of Representatives.[d][247][248]
Democrats successfully defended every legislative chamber they had held prior to the election, the first time the president's party accomplished this feat in a midterm since the 1934 U.S. elections.[249] Democrats picked up the Pennsylvania House of Representatives,[250] the Minnesota Senate, both state legislative chambers in Michigan,[251] and also established a cross-party coalition in the Alaska Senate.[252] Democrats had not controlled the Michigan Senate since 1984,[253] one reason being that although Democrats won the popular several times, Republicans continued to win more seats due to a more favorable map, which was redrawn by an independent commission in 2018 following a successful ballot measure.[20] As a result of victories in state legislative and gubernatorial elections, Democrats gained government trifectas in Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota.[249] In addition, Republicans lost a trifecta in Arizona, which they held since 2009,[254] while Democrats lost a trifecta in Nevada. Following the election, although Republicans held trifectas in more states, more people lived in Democratic-controlled states than in Republican-controlled states.[255]
Of the many proposed for 2022,[260] 132 ballot measures were certified in 37 states.[261] In response to the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that held there was no constitutional right to abortion in the United States and gave individual states the full power to regulate any aspect of abortion, six states had an abortion‑related ballot measure: California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, and Vermont.[107] During the August primaries, 59% of Kansas voters rejected their state's Value Them Both Amendment, which would have removed the right to an abortion from the Kansas Constitution.[262] California voters considered Proposition 1 during the general election,[263][264] which was approved,[28] and amended the Constitution of California to explicitly grant the right to an abortion and contraceptives.[2] All other abortion-related ballot measures also passed.[265]
In Nebraska, Nevada, and Washington, D.C., voters approved to increase the minimum wage,[2] which was in line with most such measures being approved regardless of U.S. state partisanship;[25] Republicans had pushed for ballot measures to be made harder to be certified or approved,[266] one such attempt (requiring 60 percent for any ballot measure to pass) failed in Arkansas.[28] Among electoral reform ballot measures,[267][268] voters in Nevada also approved to replace the traditional primary system and first-past-the-post voting with top-five ranked-choice voting statewide,[27] though they will need to confirm the measure in 2024 for it to take effect by 2026, as it would change the state constitution;[269] unlike the other ballot measues, this was opposed by both Democrats and Republicans.[270][271][272] In Arizona, voters approved a ballot measure that limited medical debt interest rates.[25] In South Dakota, voters approved to expand Medicaid coverage as part of the Affordable Care Act.[2][273] In Tennessee, voters voted on Amendment 1,[274] which would amend the Constitution of Tennessee to make it illegal for workplaces to require employees to be members of labor unions as a condition for employment;[2] voters in Tennessee approved for the state to have a right-to-work law,[28] while those in Illinois approved for a state constitutional right to collective bargaining.[29]
In five states, voters were asked to make the possession and use of marijuana legal for people 21 and older.[275] In Maryland and Missouri, the measures were approved,[26] while voters in Arkansas, as well as in North and South Dakota, rejected legalization. In Colorado, voters approved the decriminalization and regulation of certain psychedelic plants and fungi.[2] Of the five states where it was on the ballot,[276] Alabama, Tennessee, Oregon, and Vermont abolished slavery in prisons;[25] it did not pass in Louisiana.[2][30][31]
Local elections
Mayoral elections
A number of major U.S. cities have held mayoral elections in 2022.[277]
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma: On February 8, one-term incumbent David Holt, a former Republican as most mayoral elections are nonpartisan, won reelection against Frank Urbanic and Carol Hefner.[284]
Milwaukee, Wisconsin: On April 5, acting mayor Cavalier Johnson won the special election to a full term against Bob Donovan. Johnson became the first African-American elected mayor of Milwaukee.[285]
Norman, Oklahoma: On April 5, one-term incumbent Breea Clark lost reelection in a runoff against Larry Heikkila.[286]
San Bernardino, California: Independent Helen Tran defeated independent Jim Penman for the mayor's seat, John Valdivia, another independent who was defeated in the June 7 primary.[301] Tran is set to become the city's first Asian-American mayor.[302]
Chula Vista, California: Incumbent Democrat Mary Salas is ineligible to run for reelection due to term limits.[316]
Henderson, Nevada: Incumbent Democrat Debra March is ineligible to run for reelection due to term limits.[317]
Laredo, Texas: City councilman Mercurio Martinez III and doctor Victor Trevino advanced to a December 10 runoff,[318][319] set to succeed Democrat Pete Saenz, who is term-limited.[320]
Several tribal leaders were defeated when seeking reelection. Buu Nygren defeated Jonathan Nez to become president of the Navajo Nation; Nygren's running mate, Richelle Montoya, is the first woman elected as Navajo Nation vice president.[351] Lora Ann Chaisson defeated August "Cocoa" Creppel in the election for principal chief of the United Houma Nation.[352] Kasey Velasquez defeated chairwoman Gwendena Lee-Gatwood to become the second woman elected to lead the White Mountain Apache Tribe.[353] RoseMary LaClair defeated incumbent Nooksack Indian Tribe chairman Roswell Cline Sr.[354] Former Red Lake Band of Chippewa chairman Floyd "Buck" Jourdain defeated incumbent chairman Darrell Seki Sr.[355] Ryman LeBeau defeated incumbent Harold Fraizer to become chairman-at-large of the Cheyenne River Sioux.[356]
This table shows the partisan results of president, congressional, gubernatorial, and state legislative races held in each state and territory in 2022. Note that not all states and territories hold gubernatorial, state legislative, and Senate elections in 2022. The five U.S. territories and Washington, D.C., do not elect members of the Senate, and the territories do not take part in presidential elections; instead, they each elect one of the six non-voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. The unicameral Nebraska Legislature and the governorship and legislature of American Samoa are elected on a non-partisan basis, and political party affiliation is not listed.[212]
The race for Congress was much closer than expected;[358][359][360] control of Congress remained uncertain for several days,[361] and the House remained too close to call for over a week,[5] which was not thought to be likely in a national environment favorable to the Republican Party.[2] Organizations that make election calls projected on November 12 that the Democratic Party retained control of the Senate,[3][4] while later projecting on November 15–16 that Republicans gained control over the House with a slim majority.[5][362][363] Abortion and the economy were major issues,[364] and young and independent voters, the latter of which Democrats narrowly won whilst keeping enough of their key voting blocs and could explain their key wins,[365] turned out in record numbers particularly in some key swing states, which were won by Democrats; it is not agreed among experts only to what extent and by how much the youth vote helped Democrats.[366] It was the first midterm election since 1986 in which the party of the incumbent president achieved a net gain in governorships, and the first since 1934 in which the president's party did not lose any state legislative chambers.[367]
Democrats lost fewer seats than expected and fewer than the average for the president's party since the 1950s in the House, and made gains in the Senate, even though the president's party usually lose many seats in the midterm elections;[6][7] it was the best performance for the president's party in a midterm election in two decades in terms of seat losses,[7] and historically good when considering Biden's underwater approval ratings.[368] In addition, Democrats gained a Senate seat in Pennsylvania where John Fetterman defeated Mehmet Oz,[369] winning the seat of retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey,[370][371] while Georgia will hold a runoff election after no candidate won a majority of the vote.[372][373] Many factors have been attributed to the lack of a red wave and better-than-expected perfomance for Democrats,[2][374][375] including the quality of candidates,[376] as well as youth turnout.[11][35] Incumbent president Joe Biden, a Democrat, and incumbent Florida governor Ron DeSantis of the Republican Party, as well as reproductive rights, have been widely considered as the biggest winners,[377] while former president Donald Trump was considered to be the biggest loser by the election results.[369][378][379]Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic House coalition's fundraising arm, lost his reelection bid after ten years in Congress.[377]
In state legislative elections, Democrats gained full control of government in Minnesota and made gains in Pennsylvania,[21] where a more neutral, independent redrawn map (like in Michigan) gave them a shot to regain control of the state legislatrure.[257] In one of the most historic results of the night, Democrats gained a trifecta in Michigan for the first time since 1983.[386] For over a week, control of the state legislatures of Alaska,[387] Arizona, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania was not determined.[253] In Alaska, Democrats established a cross-coalition majority with moderate Republicans, which they already had in the House before the election, in the Senate, where they were previously a minority.[388] In New Hampshire, where Democrats made gains,[389] the race for the House was so close that a series of recounts and legal challenges have followed, leaving the state of the race uncertain.[390][391] In Pennsylvania, Republicans retained control of the Senate but the House was too close;[392] by November 16, Democrats regained control of the House for the first time since 2010.[393][394] Referendums to preserve or expand abortion access won in all six states where they were on the ballot (California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, and Vermont).[22][23][24] Those related to increasing the minimum wage (Nebraska, Nevada, and Washington, D.C.) and expanding Medicaid coverage (South Dakota) also passed,[25] while those related to cannabis legalization, some of which for medical uses and some for recreational usage, achieved mixed results.[2][26] Nevada also approved state ranked-choice voting election reform.[27] Those related to the abolition of penal labor in the United States also generally passed at the state level (Alabama, Tennessee, Oregon, and Vermont),[30] with the exception of Louisiana.[31]
Reactions
Biden described the results as a "strong night" for Democrats,[9] and he urged for cooperation in Congress.[395] Senator Lindsey Graham commented: "It's certainly not a red wave, that's for darn sure. But it is clear that we will take back the House."[396] On November 9, when the results for the House were still uncertain, the Republican House leader Kevin McCarthy launched his bid to succeed long-time House Democrats leader Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. In a letter asking for support among Republicans, he wrote: "I trust you know that earning the majority is only the beginning. Now, we will be measured by what we do with our majority. Now the real work begins."[395] On November 17, after Republicans were projected to win back the House, Pelosi announched that she would not seek reelection as speaker.[397]
Analysis
Polls both prior to and after the elections found that the status of the economy and inflation was the most important issue for voters,[55][398] with concern about abortion being relatively low compared to them,[11] and it was widely expected that this would benefit Republicans and potentially produce a red wave election in their favor,[8][9][10] which did not happen;[2][399] Florida and New York were the exception to this national trend.[400][401][402] The lack of a red wave election was attributed in part to issues that favored Democrats,[8][9][10] including significant concern over extremism among Republicans and the democratic backsliding in the United States that worsened since Trump won in 2016, abortion rights and the status of abortion in the United States since June 2022 after Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization overturned the long-held precedent since 1972 of Roe v. Wade that gave a constitutional right to abortion,[2][11][12] and the imminent announcement of the Trump campaign for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.[13][14][403] Increasing concerns over climate change and the higher approval of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 compared to the previous climate policy also played a role in it,[32][33][34] as did turnout. Whether youth turnout in particular helped to explain the results was also debated.[11]
The elections reflected trends that approximately started in 2012, in which the white American working-class, and since 2016 also some minorities, in particular those who are working class or Hispanic and Latino Americans,[38] moved even more towards Republicans,[404] though not to the extent Republicans expected,[383] as Democrats continued to win a majority of Latino voters;[381] at the same time, affluent and college-educated whites continued to move towards Democrats.[12][381] Democrats performed better than expected in states like New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and performed well in Colorado and New England, while Republicans made gains in Florida and New York. Redistricting and gerrymandering also affected results; in New York, where Democrats suffered major losses, a gerrymander had been rejected by the courts, while gerrymanders in Florida and Tennessee gave Republicans more seats by virtue of the redistricted map being much more Republican-leaning.[2]
Close results
While it is normal to take several days to know the results, including blue shifts and red mirages as Democrats vote by mail more often than Republicans,[405] the fact the race for Congress was competitive, and also closer than expected,[2][406] resulted in control of the House being uncalled for over a week,[5] with the outcome of several races in western states uncertain;[407][408][409] the Senate also remained too close to call.[398][399] By November 11, control of the Senate remained too close to call but with Democrats slightly favored,[2][410] as they made a gain in Pennsylvania's open race,[369] where John Fetterman defeated Mehmet Oz in an upset,[411] while three races remained uncalled, all of which are Democratic-held;[2] races had not yet been called in Arizona and Nevada.[2] Democrats had to win two of these three races to maintain control of the Senate,[412] and will have to defend their net gain in the Georgia competitive runoff election in December 2022.[2][413][414]
By November 12, Democrats had retained the Senate,[415] as the Democratic incumbents in Arizona and Nevada (Mark Kelly and Catherine Cortez Masto) were projected to have retained their seat.[2][3][4] The winner of the Senate race in Alaska, one of the few states to use ranked-choice voting in the United States, which saw Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski and Republican challenger and Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka as the two remaining potential victors of the race, was not determined until November 24, when Murkowski was projected to have won.[416] If Warnock prevails in Georgia, 2022 would represent the first election since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution in which no Senate incumbents lost reelection.[417] Some gubernatorial races, such as in Arizona and Nevada, were not projected for several days, as they were too close call.[224]Kari Lake, the Republican candidate in Arizona who denied Trump's loss in 2020,[418] refused to concede.[419]
Over two weeks later, results in many races are still unknown.[374][375] Several tossup or key races were won by Democrats,[2][420][421] including upsets in Colorado's 8th, North Carolina's 13th, and Washington's 3rd congressional districts,[2] and narrowly missing a further upset for the Colorado's 3rd congressional district seat held by Lauren Boebert.[422] On November 10–12, Republicans were favored to regain control of the House with a narrow majority of 3 seats (221–214) according to NBC News,[423][424][396] with 218 seats needed for a majority.[2] On November 13, Republicans and Democrats were projected to win 210–200 seats in the House according to Decision Desk HQ,[425] 211–203 according to the Associated Press,[426] and 211–206 according to ABC News.[427] By November 14, Republicans were projected to possibly have a narrow majority in the House by as little as a single seat.[2] On November 15, the projected seats in favor of Republicans were 217–203 per Decision Desk HQ,[425] 217–205 per the Associated Press,[426] and 215–207 per ABC News.[427] Later on the same day, Decision Desk HQ projected a Republican majority of the House,[428] which was followed by other news outlets the next day.[429][430]
Fears of democratic backsliding
Countries autocratizing (red) or democratizing (blue) substantially and significantly (2010–2020) according to the V-Dem Institute; countries in grey are substantially unchanged.
Democratic backsliding was a concern among voters. Polls show that many voters feared that Trump and Republicans would lead to the collapse of democracy in the United States.[431][432] Several news outlets tracked the midterm results of 2020 election deniers, including Al Jazeera,[433]Axios,[434] the BBC,[435]Bloomberg News,[436]CNN,[437]The New York Times,[438] and The Washington Post;[439] there were hundreds of election deniers candidates among Republicans,[440] and according to one analysis 60 percent of Americans had election deniers on the ballot.[441] In decisive battleground states, several such candidates ran for governor or secretary of state, both of which are positions overseeing elections and certifying their results.[2] As of November 10, of the 199 Republican candidates for the House, Senate, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election, 134 or 67 percent were projected to win their races, 52 were projected to lose, and 13 had yet to be called; of those 134, 112 were incumbent members of the House.[442] All but one (Chuck Gray of Wyoming) of the candidates for secretary of state lost in 2022.[2][443][444]
While many election deniers (at least more than 100) ultimately won congressional seats, most of them were incumbents who voted to not certify the 2020 presidential election results but avoided comments after the January 6 U.S. Capitol attack,[2] a majority of those who lost conceded but there remains a wide partisan divide regarding trust of the electoral process;[445] those who made electoral fraud claims central to their campaign, in particular those who were newcomers, lost.[2] In general, those Republican candidates who were backed by Trump or were 2020 election deniers underperformed.[446][447][448] At the same time, some far-right Republican candidates obtained limited success, in which allies of Trump and Marjorie Taylor Greene flipped some blue seats.[449]
In Arizona, Cochise County, a Republican-controlled county,[450][451] which was won by Lake,[452] is refusing to certify the results and Hobbs' win amid baseless fraud allegations,[453][454] and is being sued as a result.[455][456] State elections director Kori Lorick said the machines have been certified, and if they were not certified by the deadline for the statewide canvass on December 5, the county's votes would be excluded; this could potentially result in a different winner in at least two close races (U.S. House seat and state schools chief) from Republican to Democrat.[457] In Pennsylvania, Luzerne County was also refusing to certify the results after the county board deadlocked 2–2; the one abstention voter later said he would vote to certify at a future meeting.[458]
Potential green wave
Some environmental organizations and media described the result as a green wave, saying candidates addressing climate change did better compared to those considered who did not.[459][460][461] Among Republicans who won, they did not campaign against climate measures in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Biden specifically thanked young climate voters.[32] This was also reflected at the state and local level, where voters approved several climate-related initiatives.[462] Additionally, the green wave possibly helped block Republican control of Congress by influencing the elections in Georgia.[463]
Pundits predictions and polling
Many pundits in the media failed to predict the Democrats' resilient performance,[464][465][466]Simon Rosenberg was one exception.[467] Republican pollsters such as the Trafalgar Group had a notable polling miss, with errors outside the margin in races such as Washington's incumbent Senator Patty Murray.[468] Since 2016 and 2020, the latter of which was at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, polling companies attempted to understand the misses in recent years and how to get better.[469][470][471] There were also fewer polls in general, and a larger share came from partisan sources.[472]
Polls were relatively good,[11] especially when compared to 2020, though not as good as what FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregator website,[466] defines as the Gold Standard (2006–2012). Prior to the elections, it discussed the bias of polls in previous election cycles, which overstated or underestimated both parties, and whether there was now a systematic bias in favor of Democrats since 2016, which was also reflected in 2020,[473] but did not exclude that 2022 could be akin 1998 or 2002 (after Dobbs) or have a bias in favor of Republicans,[474][475] as it happened.[400] Their own forecasting model, which gave Republicans 59 and 84 percent of winning the Senate (slight favored) and the House (favored), respectively,[476][477] assumed the possibility that polls underestimated Republicans; its polls-only version saw the Senate as a tossup.[478] Many pollsters had their own worries,[479] and many feared they would miss Republican overperformances as it happened in 2016 and 2020 in particular.[480]
As some moderate Republicans admitted that the party had an extremist problem and had a moment of reckoning,[403] including criticism of Trump among conservatives on social media and cable news,[481] many analysts believed that the results set up a potential contest between DeSantis and Trump for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries.[18][19][482]
Despite losses, Trump called the results a "great evening", though those close to him reported him "livid" and "furious with everyone" for the losses, in particular the Senate open seat in Pennsylvania. About DeSantis, Trump stated that he was ready to reveal what he described as "bad things" about him, claiming to know him "more than anyone else, perhaps more than [his wife]."[396] On November 15, the beginning of the Trump 2024 presidential campaign was officially announced.[483][484]
Turnout
Turnout was relatively high by midterm standards. After the blue wave of 2018, it was the second highest since the 1970 U.S. elections.[485] The trend was confirmed by turnout among young voters (18–29), which was also the highest (after 2018) since the 1970s,[36][37] and helped Democrats,[35] even as Republicans turned out in greater numbers;[403] for example, youth and Latino voters turnout in a battleground state like Arizona was historically high.[418] According to the Edison Research National Election Pool, the youth vote for the House was 63–35 in favor of Democrats. Pollster Antonio Arellano commented that young voters were the only age group in which more than 50 percent of voters supported Democrats.[396]
Firsts
Arkansas, Massachusetts, and New York elected female governors for the first time, and Arkansas and Massachusetts became the first states in which women concurrently served as governor and lieutenant governor. Alabama elected its first female senator, California elected a Latino senator for the first time, and Maryland elected its first African-American governor.[486]Markwayne Mullin became the first Native American to represent Oklahoma in the Senate since Robert Latham Owen retired in 1925. In Florida, Maxwell Frost became the first member of Generation Z elected to the House. Marcy Kaptur's reelection will make her the longest-serving woman in Congress if she serves out her term. Becca Balint became the first female member of Congress from Vermont—the last of the 50 states to elect a woman to Congress—and Summer Lee became the first black woman from Pennsylvania elected to Congress.[487]
The 2022 election was the first time that LGBT candidates appeared on the general election ballot in all 50 states and Washington, D.C.[488] With their respective victories, Tina Kotek of Oregon and Maura Healey of Massachusetts became the first openly lesbian state governors.[489]James Roesener, elected to the New Hampshire House of Representatives, became the first transgender man to win a state legislative seat.[490]
^Republicans also held de facto control of Nebraska's officially non-partisan unicameral legislature.
^Garcetti has been nominated to the post of United States Ambassador to India and it is unknown if he will end his term early. Should this occur, the Los Angeles City Council will appoint an interim mayor to finish the remainder of his term.
^Garcetti has been nominated to the post of United States Ambassador to India and it is unknown if he will end his term early. Should this occur, the Los Angeles City Council will appoint an interim mayor to finish the remainder of his term.
^ abRepublicans won a majority of seats in the Alaska House of Representatives, but a majority caucus coalition was formed by a coalition of Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans. In the Alaska Senate, Republicans hold the majority.
^ abOne of Maine's senators, Susan Collins, is a Republican. The other senator from Maine, Angus King, is an independent who has caucused with Democrats since taking office in 2013.
^ abThe unicameral Nebraska Legislature is officially nonpartisan, but a majority of its members identify as Republicans.
^ abOne of Vermont's senators, Patrick Leahy, is a Democrat. The other senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, was elected as an independent and has caucused with Democrats since taking office in 2007.
^The Northern Mariana Islands' delegate to Congress, Gregorio Sablan, was elected as an independent and has caucused with Democrats since taking office in 2009. In 2021, he rejoined the local Democratic Party and ran as a Democrat in 2022.
^ abPuerto Rican Governor Pedro Pierluisi is a member of the Puerto Rican New Progressive Party, but affiliates with the Democratic Party at the national level.
^ abPuerto Rico's Resident Commissioner, Jenniffer González, was elected as a member of the New Progressive Party and has caucused with Republicans since taking office in 2017.
^ abTeixeira, Ruy (November 6, 2022). "Democrats' Long Goodbye to the Working Class". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 9, 2022. As we move into the endgame of the 2022 election, the Democrats face a familiar problem. America's historical party of the working class keeps losing working-class support. And not just among white voters. Not only has the emerging Democratic majority I once predicted failed to materialize, but many of the nonwhite voters who were supposed to deliver it are instead voting for Republicans. ... From 2012 to 2020, the Democrats not only saw their support among white working-class voters — those without college degrees — crater, they also saw their advantage among nonwhite working-class voters fall by 18 points. And between 2016 and 2020 alone, the Democratic advantage among Hispanic voters declined by 16 points, overwhelmingly driven by the defection of working-class voters. In contrast, Democrats' advantage among white college-educated voters improved by 16 points from 2012 to 2020, an edge that delivered Joe Biden the White House.
^Rogers, Kaleigh; Samuels, Alex; Skelley, George; Thomson-DeVeaux, Amelia (January 4, 2022). "5 Things To Watch Going Into The Midterms". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 19, 2022.
^"2022 Election: Live Analysis and Results". FiveThirtyEight. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022. ... Democrats' strong showing in this district speaks to a trend that we've been seeing — that this has been a historically good midterm for Democrats. ... Democrats are on track to have the best outcome for the president's party since 1950, given the president's low approval rating.
^ ab"Midterm Elections 2022". AP News. Associated Press. November 23, 2022. Archived from the original on November 23, 2022. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
^"2022 Election: Live Analysis and Results". FiveThirtyEight. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022. And in Pennsylvania, the House is currently 100–100, with three seats still TBD ... .
^"Midterms latest: Biden says he 'gets' voter frustration but results are 'clear message to preserve democracy'". Sky News. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 10, 2022. This first live counter shows the make-up of the House of Representatives so far. The latest estimate from NBC News has the Republicans winning 221 House seats compared with the Democrats' 214, meaning they would still take control but with much less authority than the 40+ gains anticipated by some pollsters. A margin for error is attached to that estimate as well, so what it truly means is that either party could still win.
^ ab"2022 House Results". Decision Desk HQ. November 13, 2022. Retrieved November 15, 2022.
^ abClarke, Seán; de Hoog, Niels; Leach, Anna; Voce, Antonio (November 15, 2022). "US midterm elections results 2022: live". The Guardian. Archived from the original on November 16, 2022. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
