2023 Bavarian state election

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All 203 seats in the Landtag of Bavaria (including 23 overhang and leveling seats) 102 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	6,902,684 (73.3%) 1.1%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Markus Söder Hubert Aiwanger Katrin Ebner-Steiner Martin Böhm Party CSU FW AfD Last election 85 seats, 37.2% 27 seats, 11.6% 22 seats, 10.2% Seats won 85 37 32 Seat change 10 10 Popular vote 5,059,571 2,163,849 2,000,435 Percentage 37.0% 15.8% 14.6% Swing 0.2% 4.3% 4.4%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Katharina Schulze Ludwig Hartmann Florian von Brunn Martin Hagen Party Greens SPD FDP Last election 38 seats, 17.6% 22 seats, 9.7% 11 seats, 5.1% Seats won 32 17 0 Seat change 6 5 11 Popular vote 1,972,725 1,140,753 413,887 Percentage 14.4% 8.4% 3.0% Swing 3.2% 1.3% 2.1%
Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats in the constituencies.
Government before election Second Söder cabinet CSU—FW Government after election Third Söder cabinet CSU—FW

The 2023 Bavarian state election was held on 8 October 2023 to elect the members of the 19th Landtag of Bavaria. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) and the Free Voters of Bavaria (FW) led by Minister-President of Bavaria Markus Söder. The 2023 Hessian state election was held the same day.

The CSU remained the largest party with only a slight decline to 37%. The Free Voters improved to second place with 16%, their best result to date. The opposition Alternative for Germany (AfD) was a close third on 15%. The Greens declined to 14%, followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) on a historic low of 8%. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell to 3% and lost their seats.^[1]

Overall, the incumbent coalition increased its majority thanks to the Free Voters' gains. The result, amidst a campaign dominated by federal issues such as immigration, was perceived as a blow for the federal government, with its three member parties – the SPD, Greens, and FDP – all suffering losses. The results also indicated the increasing popularity of the far-right AfD, which in previous months had moved into second place in federal opinion polling.^[2][3]

Election organisation

Election date and preparation deadlines

According to the Bavarian Constitution, the election must be held on a Sunday "at the earliest 59 months, at the latest 62 months" after the preceding state election^[4] unless the Landtag is dissolved early, in this case the new election shall be held at the latest on the sixth Sunday after the dissolution. The preceding state election took place on 14 October 2018. This would allow an election date between 17 September and 10 December 2023. The elections since 1978 have always taken place between mid-September and mid-October.^[5] The Bavarian state government proposed 8 October 2023 as the election date on 15 November 2022^[6] and officially set it on 13 December 2022 after hearing the parties to the state parliament.^[7] At the same day elections of the Bezirktags, two District Administrators and some Mayors take place.^[8]

The deadline for determining the population figures, which are decisive for the distribution of the 180 Landtag mandates among the seven Bavarian administrative districts and possible changes of the electoral districts, was 14 July 2021 (33 months after the election of the previous Landtag).^[9] On this basis, the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior had to submit a constituency report to the Landtag until 36 months after the election.^[10] This was done on 12 October 2021.^[11]

Delegates to the internal meetings of the parties can be appointed at the earliest 43 months after the preceding election, i.e. 15 May 2022. The actual district candidates are eligible at the earliest 46 months after the preceding election, i.e. 15 August 2022.^[12][13] The parties and other organised electoral groups which have not been represented continuously in the Bavarian Landtag or in the German Bundestag since their last election on the basis of their own election proposals (CDU, CSU, SPD, Free Voters of Bavaria, Alliance 90/The Greens, FDP, Die Linke, AfD) have to notify their intention to participate to the State Election Commissioner by the 90th day before the election.^[14] The actual election proposals and any necessary signatures have to be submitted by the 73rd day before the election.^[15]

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their electoral district and one for a candidate in their constituency.^[16] Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method.^[17] There is no state-wide proportional representation; seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as constituencies (Wahlkreise) in the constitution.^[18] An open-list system is used for the constituency seats. Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes (sum of first and second votes) in Bavaria participate in the allocation of seats. The constituencies are divided into electoral districts (Stimmkreise),^[19] in each of which one MP is directly elected.^[20] The number of electoral districts is about half of the seats in the constituency.

Campaign

Free Voters

In August 2023, the Süddeutsche Zeitung reported on a pamphlet with antisemitic contents that Hubert Aiwanger may have authored and distributed at his high school some 35 years ago as a 17-year-old.^[21] Aiwanger admitted to carrying copies in his satchel but denied writing the document. His older brother, a student at the same school at the time, later took responsibility for writing the antisemitic pamphlet itself.^[22] The Süddeutsche Zeitung drew some criticism for publishing the story six weeks before the election, without conclusive evidence and without talking to Aiwanger before publication.^[23] Bavarian premier Markus Söder demanded that Aiwanger answer 25 questions on the matter, including whether Aiwainger had actively distributed the antisemitic pamphlet. Aiwanger claimed multiple times to "not remember."^[24] Aiwanger's responses were heavily criticised as short and evasive.^[25]

In his response to a question about other incidents, Aiwanger shortly mentioned that he remembers an unrelated incident in the arts class and noted a caution against breach of secrecy.^[26]

Despite the story, Aiwanger's party, Free Voters, saw an increase in support in the polls.^[27][28][29]

AfD

On 4 October 2023, Tino Chrupalla was at an election campaign appearance in Ingolstadt. Before his speech he collapsed and came to the intensive care unit of a local hospital. What exactly led to the hospitalisation is unclear.^[30]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 18th Landtag of Bavaria.

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Party polling

Minister-President polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Lead
			Söder CSU	Hartmann Grüne	Aiwanger Free Voters	Böhm AfD	von Brunn SPD
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	8 Oct 2023	–	57	14	–	–	–	43
Wahlkreisprognose	3–6 Oct 2023	985	44	13	13	10	5	31
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	4–5 Oct 2023	1,209	54	20	–	–	–	34
Wahlkreisprognose	30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023	1,002	41	14	12	9	4	27
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	25–28 Sep 2023	1,222	54	19	–	–	–	35
Wahlkreisprognose	14–20 Sep 2023	1,021	50	11	14	9	3	36
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	4–7 Sep 2023	1,254	54	19	–	–	–	35
Wahlkreisprognose	4–7 Sep 2023	1,004	52	10	15	9	4	37
INSA	1–5 Sep 2023	1,000	45	7	13	–	–	32
Wahlkreisprognose	31 Aug – 4 Sep 2023	1,400	48	7	8	9	8	39
Wahlkreisprognose	14–19 Aug 2023	1,892	43	9	14	9	7	29
Wahlkreisprognose	14–19 Feb 2023	1,008	55	10	13	–	10	42
Wahlkreisprognose	13–17 Jan 2023	1,040	53	15	12	–	9	38

Election result

Summary of the 8 October 2023 election results for the Landtag of Bavaria^[33]

Party		Constituency[a]			Party list[b]		Total vote			Total seats	+/-
		Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Votes	%	+/-
	Christian Social Union (CSU)	2,527,810	37.0	85	2,531,761	37.1	5,059,571	37.0	0.2	85	0
	Free Voters of Bavaria (FW)	1,078,037	15.8	2	1,085,812	15.9	2,163,849	15.8	4.3	37	10
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	1,008,195	14.7	0	992,240	14.5	2,000,435	14.6	4.4	32	10
	Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE)	983,631	14.4	4	989,094	14.5	1,972,725	14.4	3.2	32	6
	Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)	587,964	8.6	0	552,789	8.1	1,140,753	8.4	1.3	17	5
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	205,677	3.0	0	208,210	3.1	413,887	3.0	2.1	0	11
	Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)	127,419	1.9	0	117,805	1.7	245,224	1.8	0.2	0	0
	The Left (DIE LINKE)	101,357	1.5	0	99,521	1.5	200,878	1.5	1.8	0	0
	Bavaria Party (BP)	72,325	1.1	0	57,155	0.8	129,480	0.9	0.8	0	0
	Grassroots Democratic Party (dieBasis)	55,600	0.8	0	63,889	0.9	119,489	0.9	New	0	New
	Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz)	25,811	0.4	0	43,981	0.6	69,792	0.5	0.2	0	0
	Die PARTEI	32,378	0.5	0	31,776	0.5	64,154	0.5	0.0	0	0
	Volt Germany (Volt)	15,785	0.2	0	25,909	0.4	41,694	0.3	New	0	New
	V-Partei³	11,061	0.2	0	11,764	0.2	22,825	0.2	0.1	0	0
	Party of Humanists (PdH)	3,609	0.1	0	10,417	0.2	14,026	0.1	0.1	0	0
Total		6,836,659	100.00	91	6,822,123	100.00	13,658,782	100.00		203	2
Invalid		58,425	0.8		72,715	1.1	131,140	1.0
Turnout							6,895,807	73.1	0.8
Registered voters							9,430,600

Aftermath and State government formation

Markus Söder was re-elected Minister-President by the Landtag on 31 October, with 120 votes for, 76 votes against, and two abstentions.^[34]

AfD politican Daniel Halemba was elected to the Bavarian State Parliament in the 2023 Bavarian state election.^[35]

On 27 October, three days before the constituent session, an arrest warrant was issued against him. Halemba was arrested on the morning of 30 October 2023 in Kirchheim unter Teck on suspicion of incitement to hatred and the use of signs of anti-constitutional organizations.^[36]