The Conservative Party's candidate, Steve Tuckwell, held the seat with a reduced majority of 495 votes. The result was considered an upset, as Labour had targeted the seat heavily; a large backlash against Johnson was expected in the constituency in the wake of the Partygate affair. Tuckwell attributed his victory to the unpopularity of London's Ultra Low Emission Zone scheme and its proposed expansion into the Borough of Hillingdon.[1]
Johnson announced his pending resignation from Parliament in response to an investigation by the Commons Privileges Committee that was launched into whether he had knowingly misled Parliament in comments about Partygate. He was highly critical of the report, which recommended a suspension from Parliament that would have been long enough to trigger a recall petition that, if successful, would have forced a by-election.[3]
His resignation took effect on 12 June. The writs for the by-election were moved, in Parliament, by Chief Whip Simon Hart on 14 June. A by-election must take place between 21 and 27 working days from the issuing of the writs; thus the by-election for Uxbridge would have had to occur between 13 and 21 July.[4]Hillingdon Council later confirmed that the by-election would take place on 20 July.[5]
At a hustings on 4 July, Beales said that it was "not the right time" to expand London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) into Hillingdon.[10] Beales had previously supported the policy earlier in the campaign.[11]
Weeks before the by-election, London Mayor Sadiq Khan reversed his decision to close Uxbridge police station, in a move described by political opponents as a "cynical" attempt to influence voters. The closure of the station was long opposed by the Conservative-run council and the previous MP.[12] The London Conservatives referred the mayor to the watchdog, Greater London Assembly's monitoring officer.[13] Both the Conservatives and the Labour candidate claimed credit for the reversal of the closure.[14]
Polling
One poll of the constituency was conducted in the days shortly before Boris Johnson's resignation by Lord Ashcroft Polls. The poll was criticised by a journalist in The New Statesman for sampling issues, and allegedly under-representing the young.[15] National polls suggested Labour could win the seat, but that it would be a close race against the Conservatives.[7] A poll by JL Partners after Johnson's resignation showed Labour in the lead, but within its margin of error.[16]
Against expectations, Labour failed to take the seat, despite winning the Selby and Ainsty by-election on the same day with a much larger swing. Many interpreted the result as being about opposition to the ULEZ expansion.[22][23][24] Much of Steve Tuckwell's campaign literature did not mention Boris Johnson at all, while barely mentioning either the Conservative Party or Rishi Sunak.[25] Both Labour's leader, Keir Starmer, and deputy leader, Angela Rayner, blamed opposition to ULEZ, with Starmer suggesting the Labour London Mayor Sadiq Khan should rethink the policy.[26][27] Khan defended the policy[28] and Starmer soon sought to heal the rift.[29] The defeated Labour candidate, Beales, also criticised the ULEZ policy.[30]openDemocracy noted that despite strong negative feeling towards high-ranking politicians like Sunak, Starmer, and Khan, Tuckwell won more than half as many votes as Johnson had won in 2019.[25]
The elected chair of Uxbridge and South Ruislip Constituency Labour Party resigned his position and left the party on the day after the election, praising former leader Jeremy Corbyn.[31]
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