2024 Saxony state election
← 2019 1 September 2024 2029 →
All 120 seats in the Landtag of Saxony
61 seats needed for a majority
 
2022-03-28 Michael Kretschmer (cropped).jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–079.jpg
Rico Gebhardt.jpg
Leader Michael Kretschmer Jörg Urban Rico Gebhardt
Party CDU AfD Left
Last election 45 seats, 32.1% 38 seats, 27.5% 14 seats, 10.4%
 
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–111.jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–092.jpg
220909 Porträt Martin Dulig Wikipedia-9118.jpg
Leader Wolfram Günther &
Katja Meier 		Martin Dulig
Party Greens SPD
Last election 12 seats, 8.6% 10 seats, 7.7%
Incumbent Government

Kretschmer II
CDU–Greens–SPD



The next election to the Landtag of Saxony is scheduled for 1 September 2024.

Background

The 2019 election was marked by high gains for the AfD, which gained almost 28 percent of the vote and became the second strongest force. After losses, the CDU ended up with almost 32 percent as the strongest party ahead of the AfD. The Left and the SPD received 10.4 and 7.7 percent of the vote, respectively. The Greens increased and achieved their best result in a state election in Saxony with 8.6 percent, the FDP again missed entering parliament with 4.5 percent.



Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted.

Party polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		CDU AfD Linke Grüne SPD FDP BSW Others Lead
Civey TBA 1,000 31 30 5 6 6 3 10 9 1
INSA 11–18 Mar 2024 1,000 30 34 5 5 6 2 11 7 4
Wahlkreisprognose 6–15 Mar 2024 1,200 31.5 31 3 6.5 6 – 13.5 8.5 0.5
Infratest dimap 18–23 Jan 2024 1,177 30 35 4 7 7 – 8 9 5
Forsa 7–10 Jan 2024 1,507 30 34 6 8 7 3 4 8 4
Wahlkreisprognose 2–9 Jan 2024 970 33.5 32 8.5 7 6 2.5 – 10 1.5
30.5 28.5 6 5.5 5.5 2 15.5 6.5 2
Civey 18 Dec – 1 Jan 2024 3,004 33 37 8 7 3 1 – 11 4
Civey 19 Nov – 3 Dec 2023 3,002 33 33 7 7 7 2 – 11 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2023 1,173 28.5 32.5 7.5 5.5 8.5 4 – 13.5 4
27.5 31 4.5 5.5 6 – 14.5 11 3.5
INSA 11–22 Aug 2023 1,500 29 35 9 6 7 5 – 7 6
Wahlkreisprognose 8–12 Jun 2023 1,558 30 32.5 9 7 10 5 – 6.5 2.5
Wahlkreisprognose 16–28 May 2023 987 31 32 9.5 7 9.5 4 – 7 1
Wahlkreisprognose 18–20 Dec 2022 1,020 29.5 31 8 9.5 10.5 3.5 – 8 1.5
Wahlkreisprognose 17–19 Sep 2022 1,000 34 30 10 7 7 3 – 9 4
Wahlkreisprognose 9–15 Jun 2022 1,204 35 28 7.5 9.5 9 3 – 8 7
Wahlkreisprognose 9–16 May 2022 1,023 33 27 5.5 9.5 12 4 – 9 6
INSA 1–6 Apr 2022 1,000 25 28 9 9 12 7 – 10 3
Wahlkreisprognose 26 Mar – 1 Apr 2022 1,100 29 26.5 6 9 15 5 – 9.5 2.5
Infratest dimap 17–22 Feb 2022 1,178 27 24 10 8 13 7 – 11 3
Wahlkreisprognose 5–12 Oct 2021 1,002 22 25.5 7 9 19 10 – 7.5 3.5
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 – 17.2 24.6 9.3 8.6 19.3 11.0 – 9.9 5.3
INSA 6–13 Sep 2021 1,000 31 26 11 7 11 8 – 6 5
Infratest dimap 13–18 Aug 2021 1,179 35 21 10 7 11 6 – 10 14
INSA 2–9 Aug 2021 1,001 34 25 13 7 8 8 – 5 9
INSA 18–25 May 2021 1,000 24 26 11 13 6 12 – 8 2
Wahlkreisprognose 9–17 Dec 2020 – 40 30 9.5 8 7 1.5 – 4 10
INSA 1–15 Dec 2020 1,008 34 26 11 10 7 5 – 7 8
Wahlkreisprognose 25 Aug – 3 Sep 2020 – 38 27.5 10 10.5 5 3 – 6 10.5
INSA 29 Jun – 2 Jul 2020 1,020 36 26 11 10 7 4 – 6 10
Wahlkreisprognose 2–9 Jun 2020 – 40 26 8.5 9.5 6 3 – 7 14
Wahlkreisprognose 1–5 Apr 2020 – 36.5 29 9 7.5 7.5 4 – 6.5 7.5
2019 state election 1 Sep 2019 – 32.1 27.5 10.4 8.6 7.7 4.5 – 9.2 4.6

Minister-President polling

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		None/
Unsure 		Lead
Kretschmer
CDU 		Urban
AfD 		Chrupalla
AfD 		Gebhardt
Linke 		Günther
Grüne 		Dulig
SPD
Wahlkreisprognose 2–9 Jan 2024 970 56 23 – – – – 21 33
56 – 29 – – – 15 27
Wahlkreisprognose 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2023 1,173 57 26 – – – – 17 31
Wahlkreisprognose 8–12 Jun 2023 1,558 45 21 – – – – 34 24
Wahlkreisprognose 18–20 Dec 2022 1,020 39 24 – 4 3 9 21 15

References

See also

Categories