The date of the elections will be set by the incumbent President, Cyril Ramaphosa, and must be within 90 days of the end of the term of the current Parliament, in mid May 2024.[1] The date of the election is expected to be announced in February.[2]
Background
In the 2021 municipal elections, the African National Congress received less than 50% of the vote for the first time nationwide in any election since the end of apartheid.[3] The party also lost support in the key metros of Tshwane (Pretoria), Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and eThekwini (Durban). The ANC retained control of eThekwini while the Democratic Alliance managed to take control of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni through a majority coalition and a minority coalition respectively in addition to forming a majority coalition government in Tshwane, which it had governed since 2016.[4]
In early 2023, the ANC and Economic Freedom Fighters formed a coalition in Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni where the two parties hold MMC positions whilst electing a mayor from a minority party.[5] In April 2023, noting the prospects of an ANC/EFF national coalition, the DA leader John Steenhuisen called for "like-minded" parties to join together to prevent a "doomsday coalition".[6]
In June 2020, the Constitutional Court ruled in New Nation Movement NPC v President of the Republic of South Africa that the Electoral Act was unconstitutional to the extent that it did not allow independents to contest national and provincial elections.[11] Since the first elections held under universal suffrage, 400 members elected were elected to the National Assembly by a system of proportional representation with a closed list approach. Two hundred members were elected from national party lists, while the other 200 were elected from provincial party lists in each of the nine provinces. The national list seats were awarded by subtracting seats won at the provincial level from each party's national allocation to generate a maximally proportional result. The Droop quota variant of the largest remainder method was used to allocate seats at both the national and provincial levels.[12] Provincial legislatures were also elected by a system of proportional representation with closed party lists.
In February 2021, Home Affairs MinisterAaron Motsoaledi appointed a ministerial advisory committee led by Valli Moosa to recommend a new electoral system.[13] While the committee was divided, a slim majority of members favoured a hybrid system with half of the seats elected in constituencies and the other half elected through party lists.[14]
On 17 April 2023, President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Electoral Amendment Bill into law allowing independent candidates to stand for election to the National Assembly and provincial legislatures while keeping the proportional representation with closed lists. Two hundred members will be elected from national party lists, while the remaining 200 seats will be contested by political parties and independent candidates in each of the nine provinces. In provincial legislatures, the single-tier multimember proportional system will continue to apply with political parties and independent candidates contesting for seats. Voters will receive three ballot papers as opposed to two in previous elections; the first ballot will be to elect the 200 members of the National Assembly only contested by political parties and the second ballot will be to elect the remaining 200 members of the National Assembly which will be contested by political parties and independent candidates in each of the nine provinces while the third ballot will be to elect members of the provincial legislatures with political parties and independent candidates as well.[15]
Following the election, the President of South Africa will be elected by the National Assembly. Although the President is required to be a member of the National Assembly at the time of election, a person that is elected as President must resign their seat in order to assume office.[16] The premiers of each province will also be elected by the respective provincial legislatures after the election.[12]
The National Council of Provinces (NCOP) comprises 90 members, ten elected by each of the provincial legislatures in proportion to the composition of the legislature. The NCOP members will be sworn in the day after the first sitting of the National Assembly.[12]
Issues
Voter turnout has been decreasing since the end of Apartheid when 86% of eligible voters turned out.[17]
Rolling blackouts, or "loadshedding", caused by problems with the state utility Eskom have been occurring since 2007, however the prevalence of blackouts has increased substantially since 2020.[18]
Various parties and organisations proposing Cape independence have existed since 2007 and the idea has been gaining significantly more traction in recent years.[19] Independent polling conducted by Victory Research in August of 2023 found that 68% of voters in the Western Cape and 79% of self identified DA voters in the Western Cape are in favour of holding a referendum on Cape independence. Additionally, outright support for secession stands at 58% overall with the majority (67%) of supporters being Coloured. [20]
In 2023, the Cape Independence Advocacy Group had requested that Alan Winde, the Western Cape premier, hold a referendum on Western Cape independence, a request which has been denied despite claims that the DA federal leader and Presidential candidate John Steenhuisen promised one for 2024.[21] Accordingly the Referendum Party was formed in November 2023 as a single-issue political party contesting in the 2024 general election to pressure the Western Cape Democratic Alliance government into holding a referendum on Western Cape independence as part of any potential coalition agreement.[22]
According to the South African Police Service Crime Statistics for Quarter 2 of the 2023/24 financial year, reported contact crimes (defined by SAPS as "crimes against the person") has increased by 3 391 (2.1%) compared to the previous quarter.[23] Recorded attempted murder illustrated the highest increase quarter-on-quarter, with 12.3%.[23] Total contact crimes reported for the quarter are 165,909. The murder rate, as of the release of this data correlates to 77 people per day. 160 cases of assault with the intent to do grievous bodily harm are reported each day.[24] In context of the election, politcial violence is reportedly on the rise.[25]
Devolution of policing
Over the last term of government, the devolution of policing power has become a key issue between the Western Cape Government and the Minister of Police, Bheki Cele.[26] The Western Cape Government argues that the Minister has the power to devolve policing, but the Minister denies having the power of devolution, saying that "the centralisation of the SAPS [is] in line with the Department [of Police's] constitutional mandate to prevent, combat and investigate crime..."[27] Section 205 of the Constitution of South Africa sets out policing policy in South Africa, noting that the police service "must be structured to function in national [and] provincial...spheres of government."[28] The Constitution gives provincial executives the power to monitor police conduct within their respective provinces, as well as the responsibility for policing functions in three cases; namely Chapter 11 of the Constitution, assigned to provincial government in terms of national legislation and allocated to it in national policing policy.[28]
The lack of adequate housing has been a major issue.[29] According to a report from Parliament, dated May 2022, the human settlements sector had a total of 3.4 million housing units built since 1994. The respective provinces and municipalities delivered a separate 1.3 million "serviced sites".[30] A parliamentary question to the Minister of Human Settlements revealed there were 2,456,773 households registered on the National Housing Needs Register as of February 2023.[31] In the City of Cape Town, there were 375,150 on the municipalities' Housing Needs Register.[32]
Cadre Deployment
The ANC has practised a policy of employing people who are loyal to the ANC to positions within institutions of government. The Zondo Commission has found that cadre deployment played a significant part in corruption.
On 12 February 2024 the Constitutional Court ruled that the ANC had five days to hand over their cadre deployment records dating back to 1 January 2013.[33]
South Africa's links to Russia and China, through military co-operation[36] and potential co-operation with Iran[37] has placed the country in danger of losing its preferential access to the U.S. market through the African Growth and Opportunity Act, with multiple members of the U.S. Congress raising concern with South Africa's alleged threats to U.S. interests, the most high-ranking member being Senator Jim Risch, the Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.[38][37] In response, the Leader of the Opposition, John Steenhuisen led a delegation arguing that "the ANC is not South Africa" in an effort to lessen the impact of a possible removal from AGOA.[38] Later, the Western Cape Premier, Alan Winde and a Western Cape Government delegation also made a trip to the United States to detail the possible impact that a loss would have on the agricultural industry in the province.[39] The Leader of the Opposition in the Western Cape Provincial Parliament, Cameron Dugmore (ANC) accused the provincial government of wasting taxpayer's money, saying "this trip was about the DA’s desperation to secure support for the 2024 elections by creating a certain narrative about this matter".[40]
Opinion polls
LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 South African General Election.
^ abSouth African Police Service, 2023. Police Recorded Crime Statistics, Republic of South Africa: Second Quarter of 2023-2024 Financial Year (July 2023 to September 2023). Available at https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_documents/saps_stats.pdf Accessed on 03 January 2024
