The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senateto represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Senator Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term in office. This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in states Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Ohio and West Virginia. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[1] Primary elections will take place on June 4, 2024.[2] The last time Republicans won this seat was in 2000.
Background
Montana is generally considered a red state at the federal level, voting for Republican candidates in each presidential election starting in 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the state by double digits in every race except in 2008.
In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. The race is expected to be one of the most competitive of the 2024 cycle, as Tester is broadly popular with Montana voters despite the state's partisan lean,[3] and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split.[4]
Failed attempt to pass "top-two" primary system
On April 4, 2023, Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senator Ryan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab."[5][6]
After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race.[7] The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19.[8] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.[9]
^Singer, Jeff. "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/3". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 6, 2023. The end of Montana's legislative session Tuesday night means that the GOP proposal to conduct the 2024 Senate election using top-two rules in order to weaken Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is officially dead...it passed the state Senate last month. A state House committee, though, tabled the measure weeks later, and an attempt to resurrect the top-two also failed a short time later.
^Ambarian, Jonathan (October 19, 2023). "Millions already spent in highly watched Montana U.S. Senate race". KTVH-DT. Retrieved October 26, 2023. One other Republican has decided not to stay in the race for U.S. Senate. Jeremy Mygland, who owns a construction business...announced last week that he would instead run for the Montana Senate. In his statement, he praised Rosendale and encouraged him to enter the race to challenge Tester.
