2024 United States presidential election in Georgia
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Nominee Joe Biden
(presumptive) 		Donald Trump
(presumptive)
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris
(presumptive) 		TBA
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



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The 2024 United States presidential election in Georgia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Georgia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Georgia has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which it neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Georgia is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.[2]

Despite being located in the conservative Bible Belt and Deep South regions, Georgia has become competitive since the start of the 2020s and is considered as purple to slightly red state today, after having been a moderately red state in the late 2000s going through the 2010s. The last Republican presidential candidate to win Georgia by double digits, and the only one to win the state more than once, was fellow Southerner George W. Bush. This leftward shift is mainly attributed to the rapid population growth that the progressive and diverse Atlanta metro, which holds much of the state's population, has experienced in the 21st century, including an influx of African Americans, Asian Americans, Latinos and progressive Whites. In 2020, Joe Biden very narrowly carried the state by 0.23%, making Georgia the closest state that election and making Biden the first Democrat since Southerner Bill Clinton in 1992 to win the state's electoral votes, and the first non-Southern Democrat to do so since John F. Kennedy in 1960.

Incumbent President Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3] If he carries the state once more, he will become the first Democratic presidential candidate since favorite son Jimmy Carter in 1980 to carry the state in two consecutive presidential elections. This race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean at the federal level and despite the continued GOP lean at the state level, however, most polls show Trump to be the favorite to win. Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in late February.[4]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Georgia Democratic presidential primary

The Georgia Democratic primary was held on March 12, 2024.[5]

Georgia Democratic primary, March 12, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 272,363 93.1% 108
Marianne Williamson 8,569 2.9%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 5,205 1.8%
Blank ballots 6,429 2.2%
Overvotes 2 <0.1%
Total: 292,568 100.00% 108 16 124
Source:[6]


Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Georgia Republican presidential primary

The Georgia Republican primary was held on March 12, 2024.[7]

Georgia Republican primary, March 12, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 497,594 84.5% 56 56
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 77,902 13.2%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 7,457 1.3%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 2,054 0.3%
Tim Scott (withdrawn) 1,398 0.2%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,244 0.2%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 383 0.1%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 377 0.1%
David Stuckenberg 243 <0.1%
Doug Burgum (withdrawn) 161 <0.1%
Perry Johnson (withdrawn) 134 <0.1%
Total: 588,947 100.0% 59 59
Source: [8]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[9] Tossup December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10] Tossup April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Tossup June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] Tossup December 14, 2023
CNalysis[13] Tossup December 30, 2023
CNN[14] Lean R (flip) January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 51% –
Fox News April 11–16, 2024 1,128 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 51% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult April 8–15, 2024 802 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 49% 8%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 44% 13%
Echelon Insights[A] March 12–19, 2024 400 (LV) ± 5.7% 42% 52% 6%
Marist College March 11–14, 2024 1,177 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 51% 2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–12, 2024 788 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 49% 9%
CBS News/YouGov March 4–11, 2024 1,133 (RV) ± 3.9% 48% 51% 1%
Emerson College March 5–7, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 52% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 49% 8%
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 48% 10%
Fox News January 26–30, 2024 1,119 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 51% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024 798 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 49% 10%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution January 3–11, 2024 1,007 (RV) ± 3.1% 37% 45% 18%
CNN/SSRS November 30 – December 7, 2023 1,068 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 49% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 49% 8%
J.L. Partners November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 46% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023 803 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 48% 11%
Emerson College October 30 – November 4, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 47% 14%
University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs[B] October 30 – November 3, 2023 1,002 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 45% 11%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 629 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 49% 8%
Zogby Analytics October 9–12, 2023 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 51% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 5–10, 2023 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023 761 (LV) – 40% 43% 17%
Rasmussen Reports (R) September 8–11, 2023 1,061 (LV) ± 3.0% 38% 47% –
Prime Group[C] June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 48% 52% –
500 (RV) – 36% 45% 19%[b]
Cygnal (R)[D] June 5–7, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 42% 17%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 43% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) April 25–27, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 43% 13%
Emerson College November 28–30, 2022 888 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 43% 13%
University of Massachusetts Lowell November 18–28, 2022 1,300 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 43% 7%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022 579 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52% 5%
Emerson College October 28–31, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (R) October 23–24, 2022 1,053 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 47% 14%
Emerson College October 6–7, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 45% 12%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 751 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 45% 8%
Emerson College August 28–29, 2022 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 51% 3%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[E] July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 40% 48% 12%
East Carolina University June 6–9, 2022 868 (RV) ± 3.9% 40% 47% 13%
Blueprint Polling (D) March 2–8, 2022 662 (V) ± 3.9% 36% 50% 14%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[F] November 11–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 48% 7%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 45% 5% 2% 2% 8%
Fox News April 11–16, 2024 1,128 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 46% 7% 1% 2% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult April 8–15, 2024 802 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 45% 7% 1% 1% 6%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 35% 38% 8% 2% 1% 16%
Emerson College March 5–7, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 44% 5% 2% 1% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–12, 2024 788 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 45% 7% 2% 0% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 45% 6% 1% 1% 9%
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 45% 6% 1% 1% 11%
Fox News January 26–30, 2024 1,119 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 45% 8% 3% 1% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024 798 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 44% 8% 1% 1% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 44% 6% 2% 1% 10%
J.L. Partners/Daily Mail November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 45% 2% 1% 0% 10%[c]
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies March 14–17, 2024 760 (LV) – 41% 44% 6% 9%
Marist College March 11–14, 2024 1,177 (RV) ± 3.7% 40% 45% 14% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies December 28–30, 2023 953 (LV) – 34% 42% 8% 16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023 746 (LV) – 35% 45% 7% 14%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 629 (LV) ± 4.5 29% 36% 24% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023 761 (LV) – 38% 41% 8% 13%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRS November 30 – December 7, 2023 1068 (RV) ± 3.3% 34% 42% 15% 6% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023 803 (RV) ± 3.0% 34% 43% 10% 1% 12%
Zogby Analytics October 9–12, 2023 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 36% 44% 15% 5% –
Hypothetical polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 8%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 629 (RV) ± 4.5% 44% 45% 11%
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 32% 51% 17%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRS November 30 – December 7, 2023 1,068 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 49% 8%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 629 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 45% 15%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023 746 (LV) – 35% 27% 17% 5% 15%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 629 (RV) ± 4.5% 44% 45% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 45% –
Public Opinion Strategies April 25–27, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 47% 11%
Emerson College November 28–30, 2022 888 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 47% 10%
University of Massachusetts Lowell November 18–28, 2022 1,300 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 47% 7%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 751 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 42% 11%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023 746 (LV) – 36% 34% 14% 4% 12%
Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Mike
Pence
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 43% –
Joe Biden vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[D] June 5–7, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4% 38% 48% 14%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ No Labels candidate
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 10%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Hardworking Americans PAC
  5. ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Gellman, Barton (July 29, 2022). "How Six States Could Overturn the 2024 Election". The Atlantic. Retrieved August 6, 2022.
  3. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  4. ^ Pellish, Aaron (February 27, 2024). "Super PAC supporting RFK Jr. says it has gathered enough signatures to put him on ballot in Arizona, Georgia | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  5. ^ "Georgia Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  6. ^ "2024 PRES PREF PRIMARY ELECTIO". Varun's Live Election Maps. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  7. ^ "Georgia Republican Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  8. ^ "Georgia Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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