2024 United States presidential election in Michigan

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November 5, 2024

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Nominee	Joe Biden (presumptive)	Donald Trump (presumptive)	Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Party	Democratic	Republican	Independent
Home state	Delaware	Florida	California
Running mate	Kamala Harris (presumptive)	Marjorie Taylor Greene (presumptive)	Tulsi Gabbard (presumptive)

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.^[1] Michigan is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.^[2]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Michigan Democratic presidential primary

Incumbent United States President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary race, held on February 27, 2024.^[3]

Michigan Democratic primary, February 27, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	621,404	81.1%	115		115
Uncommitted	101,070	13.2%	2		2
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	22,741	3.0%
Dean Phillips	20,561	2.7%
Write-in votes	271	<0.1%
Cenk Uygur	7	<0.1%
Total:	766,054	100%	117	23	140
Source: ^[4]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary

Former United States President Donald Trump won the Republican primary race, held on February 27, 2024.^[5]

Michigan Republican primary, February 27, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	756,789	68.2%	12		12
Nikki Haley	294,879	26.6%	4		4
Uncommitted	33,365	3.0%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	13,363	1.2%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	4,772	0.4%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	3,704	0.3%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	2,355	0.2%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	1,083	0.1%
Total:	1,110,310	100.00%	16		16
Source: ^[6]^[7]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[8]	Tossup	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections^[9]	Tilt D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[10]	Lean D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill^[11]	Tossup	December 14, 2023
CNalysis^[12]	Tossup	December 30, 2023
CNN^[13]	Lean R (flip)	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
North Star Opinion Research^[A]	February 22–25, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	43%	13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	46%	10%
Emerson College	February 20–24, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	44%	46%	10%
EPIC-MRA	February 13–18, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	45%	14%
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,106 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	47%	8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	703 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	47%	7%
Target Insyght	January 4–10, 2024	800 (RV)	–	45%	41%	14%
Glengariff Group^[B]	January 2–6, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	39%	47%	14%
John Zogby Strategies	January 2–4, 2024	602 (LV)	–	44%	47%	9%
CNN/SSRS	November 29 – December 6, 2023	1,197 (RV)	± 3.4%	40%	50%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	703 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	46%	12%
EPIC-MRA	November 10–16, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	46%	13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	700 (RV)	± 4.0%	43%	43%	14%
Emerson College	October 30 – November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	41%	16%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	616 (RV)	± 4.4%	43%	48%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 5–10, 2023	706 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	44%	12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	820 (LV)	–	41%	41%	17%
Marketing Resource Group	October 2–8, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	35%	42%	22%
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	468 (RV)	± 4.5%	44%	43%	8%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[C]	September 26–27, 2023	679 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	44%	8%
Susquehanna Polling & Research	September 7–12, 2023	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	46%	43%	11%
EPIC-MRA	August 6–11, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	45%	9%
Emerson College	August 1–2, 2023	1,121 (LV)	± 2.9%	44%	44%	13%
Mitchell Research^[D]	July 11–13, 2023	639 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	43%	13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[E]	Jul 8–10, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.38%	45%	44%	9%
EPIC-MRA	June 8–14, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	44%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[E]	April 17–19, 2023	500 (V)	± 3.6%	45%	42%	12%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[F]	December 6–7, 2022	763 (V)	± 3.6%	50%	43%	7%
EPIC-MRA	November 30 – December 6, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	43%	10%
Emerson College	October 28–31, 2022	900 (LV)	± 3.2%	44%	47%	9%
Emerson College	October 12–14, 2022	580 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	44%	12%
EPIC-MRA	September 15–19, 2022	600 (LV)	–	48%	44%	8%
Blueprint Polling (D)	August 15–16, 2022	611 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	41%	19%
Blueprint Polling (D)	February 1–4, 2022	632 (LV)	± 3.9%	38%	40%	22%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)^[G]	November 11–16, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	53%	6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	702 (RV)	± 4.0%	40%	41%	9%	1%	1%	8%
Emerson College	February 20–24, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	39%	42%	6%	1%	1%	11%
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,106 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	42%	11%	2%	3%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	703 (RV)	± 4.0%	37%	43%	8%	1%	1%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	703 (RV)	± 4.0%	35%	39%	10%	2%	1%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	December 28–30, 2023	832 (LV)	–	37%	39%	9%	15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	874 (LV)	–	38%	39%	9%	13%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	616 (LV)	± 4.4%	31%	34%	26%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	820 (LV)	–	38%	40%	7%	15%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
CNN/SSRS	November 29 – December 6, 2023	1,197 (RV)	± 3.4%	31%	39%	20%	6%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	700 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	37%	10%	2%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	August 1–2, 2023	1,121 (LV)	± 2.9%	41%	43%	4%	11%

Hypothetical polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	616 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	47%	8%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Gretchen Whitmer Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Marketing Resource Group	October 2–8, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	40%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,106 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	43%	15%
Glengariff Group^[H]	January 2–6, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	34%	44%	22%
CNN/SSRS	November 29 – December 6, 2023	1,197 (RV)	± 3.4%	38%	50%	12%
EPIC-MRA	November 10–16, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	36%	47%	17%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	616 (RV)	± 4.4%	36%	46%	18%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Fox News	February 8–12, 2024	1,106 (RV)	± 3.0%	35%	26%	23%	3%	3%	33%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	874 (LV)	–	37%	25%	18%	20%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
CNN/SSRS	November 29 – December 6, 2023	1,197 (RV)	± 3.4%	42%	49%	9%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	616 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	43%	13%
Susquehanna Polling & Research	September 7–12, 2023	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	48%	42%	10%
Mitchell Research^[D]	July 11–13, 2023	639 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	31%	25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[E]	July 8–10, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.38%	44%	46%	7%
EPIC-MRA	June 8–14, 2023	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	45%	11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[E]	April 17–19, 2023	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	45%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other	Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	874 (LV)	–	39%	30%	13%	2%	15%

Notes

References

^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
^ Min Kim, Seung (February 27, 2024). "Trump and Biden win Michigan primary. But voters uncommitted to either candidate demand attention". Associated Press. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
^ "2024 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
^ Min Kim, Seung (February 27, 2024). "Trump and Biden win Michigan primary. But voters uncommitted to either candidate demand attention". Associated Press. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
^ "Secretary Benson releases 2024 presidential primary candidate list". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved December 8, 2023.^{[failed verification]}
^ "2024 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. February 27, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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