2024 United States presidential election in Nevada
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Joe Biden
(presumptive) 		Donald Trump
(presumptive)
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris
(presumptive) 		TBA
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



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None of These Candidates

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Nevada is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, although no Republican presidential nominee has won Nevada since George W. Bush's narrow victory twenty years earlier (although, except in 2008, the wins were always in single digits for Democrats: Obama won by less than 7% in 2012 and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both 2016 and 2020).

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March.[3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Nevada Democratic presidential primary

The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.

Nevada Democratic primary, February 6, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 119,758 89.3% 36 36
None of These Candidates 7,448 5.6%
Marianne Williamson 4,101 3.1%
Gabriel Cornejo 811 0.6%
Jason Palmer 530 0.4%
Frankie Lozada 315 0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato 264 0.2%
John Haywood 241 0.2%
Stephen Lyons 147 0.1%
Superpayaseria Crystalroc 133 0.1%
Donald Picard 124 0.1%
Brent Foutz 93 0.1%
Stephen Alan Leon 89 0.1%
Mark R. Prascak 33 <0.1%
Total: 134,087 100% 36 13 49
Source: [4]

Republican nominating contests

Main article: 2024 Nevada Republican presidential nominating contests

Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary will not be included in determining delegate allocation.

Nevada Republican primary, February 6, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage
None of These Candidates[5] 50,763 63.3%
Nikki Haley 24,583 30.6%
Mike Pence (withdrawn) 3,091 3.9%
Tim Scott (withdrawn) 1,081 1.4%
John Anthony Castro 270 0.3%
Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn) 200 0.3%
Donald Kjornes 166 0.2%
Heath V. Fulkerson 95 0.1%
Total: 80,249 100.00%
Source: [6]
Nevada Republican caucus, February 8, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 59,982 99.1% 25 1[a] 26
Ryan Binkley 540 0.9% 0 0 0
Total 60,522 100.0% 25 1 26
Source: "2024 Presidential Caucus". Nevada Republican Party. Retrieved January 17, 2024.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[7] Tossup December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[8] Tilt D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Tossup June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] Tossup December 14, 2023
CNalysis[11] Tossup December 30, 2023
CNN[12] Lean R (flip) January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult April 8–15, 2024 450 (RV) ± 5.0% 43% 51% 6%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 48% 8%
Echelon Insights[A] March 12–19, 2024 400 (LV) ± 5.8% 44% 51% 5%
Emerson College March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 51% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–15, 2024 447 (RV) ± 5.0% 44% 46% 10%
Noble Predictive Insights February 27 – March 5, 2024 829 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 45% 15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024 445 (RV) ± 5.0% 42% 48% 10%
Emerson College February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 46% 14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024 457 (RV) ± 5.0% 40% 48% 12%
Emerson College January 5–8, 2024 1,294 (RV) ± 2.6% 45% 47% 8%
Change Research/Future Majority (D) December 3–7, 2023 (RVs) – 40% 44% 14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023 451 (RV) ± 5.0% 44% 47% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023 437 (RV) ± 5.0% 43% 46% 11%
Emerson College October 30 – November 4, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 46% 14%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 52% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 5–10, 2023 503 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% 11%
CNN September 29 – October 3, 2023 1,251 (RV) ± 4.6% 46% 45% 9%
Vote TXT May 15–19, 2023 412 (RV) – 41% 48% 11%
Prime Group[B] June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 51% 49% –
500 (RV) – 39% 39% 22%[c]
Noble Predictive Insights April 18–26, 2023 613 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 40% 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) April 17–20, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% 9%
OH Predictive Insights January 30 – February 6, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 42% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (R) November 8–9, 2022 679 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 45% 14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 24–27, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 48% 5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[C] October 13–17, 2022 707 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 49% 14%
Emerson College September 8–10, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 43% 17%
Emerson College July 7–10, 2022 2,000 (RV) ± 2.1% 40% 43% 17%
Blueprint Polling (D) March 21–24, 2022 671 (LV) ± 3.8% 34% 44% 22%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult April 8–15, 2024 450 (RV) ± 5.0% 34% 48% 7% 2% 3% 6%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 33% 37% 15% 2% 2% 11%[d]
Emerson College March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 41% 9% 1% 2% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–15, 2024 447 (RV) ± 5.0% 36% 42% 11% 1% 1% 11%
Noble Predictive Insights February 27 – March 5, 2024 829 (RV) ± 3.4% 33% 40% 11% 4% 2% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024 445 (RV) ± 5.0% 37% 44% 9% 1% 0% 9%
Emerson College February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 34% 44% 6% 1% 1% 14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024 457 (RV) ± 5.0% 31% 43% 12% 1% 2% 11%
Emerson College January 5–8, 2024 1,294 (RV) ± 2.6% 39% 42% 5% 1% 1% 12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023 451 (RV) ± 5.0% 37% 42% 11% 2% 1% 7%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (LV) ±4.4 31% 38% 23% 8%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023 437 (RV) ± 5.0% 35% 39% 11% 1% 14%
Hypothetical polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 48% 13%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% 10%
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 32% 49% 19%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% 10%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (RV) ± 4.4% 37% 46% 17%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 611 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 45% 14%
Vote TXT May 15–19, 2023 412 (RV) – 36% 46% 17%
Noble Predictive Insights April 18–26, 2023 613 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 42% 15%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) April 17–20, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 44% 10%
OH Predictive Insights January 30 – February 6, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 36% 42% 22%
Emerson College July 7–10, 2022 2,000 (RV) ± 2.1% 38% 43% 19%
Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 24–27, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 46% 12%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ If a candidate wins all of Nevada's delegates, the NRP chair is automatically unbound. He has pledged his support to Trump.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ No Labels candidate
  4. ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Capitol Resource Institute

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. ^ Dorn, Sara. "Why RFK Jr. Could Hurt Biden Against Trump—As He Gains Ballot Access In Key Swing State". Forbes. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
  4. ^ "Silver State 2024 Election Results - Presidential Preference Primary". Secretary of State of Nevada. Retrieved February 6, 2024.
  5. ^ Jackson, Hugh (January 21, 2024). "Nikki Haley: Second to none?". The Nevada Current. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
  6. ^ "Silver State 2024 Presidential Preference Primary Election Results". Secretary of State of Nevada. February 6, 2024. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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