2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



Elections in New Hampshire
Federal government
Presidential elections
United States Senate elections
United States House elections
State government
Gubernatorial elections
Executive Council elections
General Court elections
Senate elections
House elections
Manchester
Mayoral elections
  • 19th century
    • 1846
    • 1847
    • 1848
    • 1849
    • 1850
    • 1851
    • 1852
    • 1853
    • 1854
    • 1855
    • 1856 (Mar)
    • 1856 (Nov)
    • 1857
    • 1858
    • 1859
    • 1860
    • 1861
    • 1862
    • 1863
    • 1864
    • 1865
    • 1866
    • 1867
    • 1868
    • 1869
    • 1870
    • 1871
    • 1872
    • 1873
    • 1875
    • 1876
    • 1877
    • 1878 (Mar)
    • 1878 (Nov)
    • 1880
    • 1882
    • 1884
    • 1886
    • 1888
    • 1890
    • 1892
    • 1894
    • 1896
    • 1898
    • 1900

  • 20th century
    • 1902
    • 1904
    • 1906
    • 1908
    • 1910
    • 1912
    • 1914
    • 1915
    • 1917
    • 1919
    • 1921
    • 1923
    • 1925
    • 1927
    • 1929
    • 1931
    • 1933
    • 1935
    • 1937
    • 1939
    • 1941
    • 1943
    • 1945
    • 1947
    • 1949
    • 1951
    • 1953
    • 1955
    • 1957
    • 1959
    • 1961
    • 1963
    • 1965
    • 1967
    • 1969
    • 1971
    • 1973
    • 1975
    • 1977
    • 1979
    • 1981
    • 1983
    • 1985
    • 1987
    • 1989
    • 1991
    • 1993
    • 1995
    • 1997
    • 1999

  • 21st century
    • 2001
    • 2003
    • 2005
    • 2007
    • 2009
    • 2011
    • 2013
    • 2015
    • 2017
    • 2019
    • 2021
    • 2023

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] New Hampshire is expected to be heavily targeted by both parties in 2024, even though the state has voted Democratic in seven out of the last eight presidential elections and is seen as a blue-leaning state.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2] Environmental attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, the second state to officially grant him ballot access.[3]

Primary elections

New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.

Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties were held on January 23, 2024.[4]

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary

On February 4, 2023, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which the South Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governor Chris Sununu, Democratic senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, and the state legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes)[5] and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23.[4][6][7]

Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot.[8] Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formal write-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to the Democratic National Convention will still be binding.[9]

Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
2024 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary[10]
Candidate Votes %
Joe Biden (write-in) 79,460 63.91
Dean Phillips 24,373 19.60
Marianne Williamson 5,014 4.03
Derek Nadeau 1,616 1.30
Vermin Supreme 912 0.73
John Vail 685 0.55
Donald Picard 371 0.30
Paperboy Prince 326 0.26
Paul LaCava 176 0.14
Michael Jason Palmer 142 0.11
President R. Boddie 136 0.11
Mark Stewart Greenstein 133 0.11
Terrisa Bukovinac 101 0.08
Gabriel Cornejo 86 0.07
Stephen P. Lyons 80 0.06
Frankie Lozada 73 0.06
Tom Koos 71 0.06
Armando Perez-Serrato 68 0.05
Other candidates / write-ins 1,736 1.40
Nikki Haley (write-in) 4,752 3.82
Donald Trump (write-in) 2,071 1.67
"Ceasefire" (write-in) 1,515 1.22
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) 440 0.35
Total 124,337 100.00

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary

The New Hampshire Republican primary was held on January 23, 2024, as the second contest of the Republican primaries, held about a week after the Iowa caucuses. 22 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the statewide vote. The primary was won by Donald Trump, defeating Nikki Haley by eleven points.

Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Haley
  •   50–60%
2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump 176,391 54.38 12
Nikki Haley 140,291 43.25 9
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 2,241 0.69
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,493 0.46
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 833 0.26
Mike Pence (withdrawn) 404 0.12
Ryan Binkley 315 0.10
Mary Maxwell 282 0.09
Tim Scott (withdrawn) 196 0.06
Doug Burgum (withdrawn) 180 0.06
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 108 0.03
Rachel Swift 105 0.03
Scott Ayers 80 0.02
Darius Mitchell 74 0.02
Glenn J. McPeters 49 0.02
Other candidates / write-ins 513 0.16
Joe Biden (write-in) 497 0.15
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) 205 0.06
Dean Phillips (write-in) 79 0.02
"Ceasefire" (write-in) 34 0.01
Total 324,370 100.00 22

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[12] Likely D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[13] Lean D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Lean D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] Lean D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[16] Likely D December 30, 2023
CNN[17] Lean D January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /

Undecided

Marist College January 15–17, 2024 1,157 (RV) ± 3.8% 52% 45% 3%
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 42% 11%
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,108 (LV) ± 2.2% 52% 40% 8%
Emerson College August 9–11, 2023 837 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% 11%
Saint Anselm College June 21–23, 2023 1,065 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 11%
Emerson College March 3–5, 2023 1,025 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 38% 20%
co/efficient January 25–26, 2023 1,179 (LV) ± 3.15% 40% 39% 21%
Emerson College October 30 – November 1, 2022 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 41% 14%
University of Massachusetts Lowell October 14–25, 2022 600 (LV) ± 5.1% 49% 43% 8%
Emerson College October 18–19, 2022 727 (LV) ± 3.6% 44% 43% 13%
Emerson College September 14–15, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 43% 11%
University of New Hampshire June 16–20, 2022 845 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 43% 8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 10–12, 2021 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% –
Saint Anselm College[A] May 7–10, 2021 1,267 (RV) ± 2.8% 50% 43% –
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 40% 37% 8% 1% 14%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Marist College January 15–17, 2024 1,157 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 41% 12% 3%
Saint Anselm College December 18–19, 2023 1,711 (LV) ± 3.9% 49% 39% 8% 4%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Green 		Other /

Undecided

Emerson College August 9–11, 2023 837 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 39% 5% 13%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /

Undecided

Marist College January 15–17, 2024 1,157 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 47% 9%
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 39% 45% 16%
Hypothetical polling
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other Undecided
Marist College January 15–17, 2024 1,157 (RV) ± 3.8% 51% 42% – 7%
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 38% – 16%
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,108 (LV) ± 2.2% 50% 33% 15%[b] 5%
Saint Anselm College June 21–23, 2023 1,065 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 10 2%
Emerson College March 3–5, 2023 1,025 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 37% 14% 7%
University of New Hampshire June 16–20, 2022 845 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 47% 7%
Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Vivek
Ramaswamy
Republican 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,018 (LV) ± 2.2% 49% 20% 15%[c] 5%
Joe Biden vs. Tim Scott
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Tim
Scott
Republican 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,018 (LV) ± 2.2% 47% 34% 14%[d] 5%
Joe Biden vs. Chris Christie
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Chris
Christie
Republican 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,018 (LV) ± 2.2% 44% 20% 27%[e] 10%
Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Mike
Pence
Republican 		Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN September 14–18, 2023 2,018 (LV) ± 2.2% 49% 20% 25%[f] 5%
Joe Biden vs. Chris Sununu
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Chris
Sununu
Republican 		Other Undecided
Emerson College March 3–5, 2023 1,025 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 44% 14% 6%
co/efficient January 25–26, 2023 1,179 (LV) ± 3.15% 36% 48% – 16%
Praecones Analytica April 14–16, 2022 503 (RV) ± 4.6% 36% 53% – 12%
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 10–12, 2021 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 6%
Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bernie
Sanders
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Undecided
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 47.6% 42.5% 9.8%
Elizabeth Warren vs. Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Elizabeth
Warren
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Undecided
Emerson College November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 43% 12%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 5%
  3. ^ Donald Trump with 9%; "Another candidate" with 6%
  4. ^ Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 4%
  5. ^ Donald Trump with 16%; "Another candidate" with 11%
  6. ^ Donald Trump with 15%; "Another candidate" with 10%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. ^ "RFK Jr. says he qualifies in N.H." POLITICO. January 24, 2024. Retrieved January 24, 2024.
  4. ^ a b "New Hampshire Defies National Democrats' New Calendar With January Primary Date". HuffPost. November 15, 2023. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
  5. ^ O'Keefe, Ed; Novak, Analisa (February 3, 2023). "New Hampshire battles to retain first-in-the-nation presidential primary as DNC leaders meet to vote on possible changes". CBS News. Archived from the original on February 5, 2023. Retrieved February 5, 2023.
  6. ^ Kashinsky, Lisa; Garrity, Kelly (April 30, 2023). "Messing with New Hampshire's primary could have consequences for Biden and the ballot, senator says". Politico. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  7. ^ Sexton, Adam (July 9, 2023). "Hassan on threat to New Hampshire primary: 'We will go first'". WMUR.com. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  8. ^ Schneider, Elena (October 24, 2023). "Biden won't appear on New Hampshire primary ballot". Politico. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  9. ^ Kashinsky, Lisa (October 30, 2023). "Democrats launch write-in campaign for Biden in N.H." Politico. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
  10. ^ "2024 Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results". New Hampshire Secretary of State.
  11. ^ "2024 Republican Presidential Primary Election Results". New Hampshire Secretary of State.
  12. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
Categories