By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament

By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament may be held to fill vacancies in the House of Commons of Canada between the 2021 federal election and the 45th federal election. The 44th Canadian Parliament has existed since 2021 with the membership of its House of Commons having been determined by the results of the 44th Canadian federal election held on September 20, 2021. The Liberal Party of Canada has a minority government during this Parliament, supported by the New Democratic Party in a confidence-and-supply agreement.[1]

One by-election has been held during the 44th Parliament, following the resignation of Sven Spengemann (Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore), to take on a role at the United Nations.[2] Further by-elections are expected: in Winnipeg South Centre, left vacant following the death of Liberal MP Jim Carr on December 12, 2022; in Calgary Heritage, following the resignation of Conservative MP Bob Benzen on December 31, 2022 in order to return to the private sector; in Oxford, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie on January 28, 2023; in Portage—Lisgar, following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen on February 28, 2023; in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, following the resignation of Liberal MP Marc Garneau on March 8, 2023; and in Durham, following Conservative MP Erin O'Toole's announcement he would resign following the end of the spring 2023 parliamentary session.[3][4][5][6][7][8][9]

The writ for a by-election must be dropped no sooner than 11 days and no later than 180 days after the chief electoral officer is officially notified of a vacancy via a warrant issued by the Speaker. Under the Canada Elections Act, the minimum length of a campaign is 36 days between dropping the writ and election day.[10]

Overview

Electoral district Date vacated Date writ issued By-election date Previous incumbent Party Cause Winner Party Retained
Durham TBD[a] TBD TBD Erin O'Toole Conservative Resignation
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount March 8, 2023 (2023-03-08) No later than September 5, 2023 (2023-09-05)[11] No earlier than June 11, 2023
No later than October 23, 2023 (2023-10-23)[11] 		Marc Garneau Liberal Retiring
Portage—Lisgar February 28, 2023 (2023-02-28) No later than August 27, 2023 (2023-08-27)[12] No earlier than June 11, 2023
No later than October 16, 2023 (2023-10-16)[12] 		Candice Bergen Conservative Resignation
Oxford January 28, 2023 (2023-01-28) No later than July 29, 2023 (2023-07-29)[13] No earlier than June 11, 2023
No later than August 28, 2023 (2023-08-28)[13] 		Dave MacKenzie Conservative Retiring
Calgary Heritage December 31, 2022 (2022-12-31) No later than July 2, 2023 (2023-07-02)[14] No earlier than June 11, 2023
No later than August 21, 2023 (2023-08-21)[14] 		Bob Benzen Conservative Resigned to return to the private sector
Winnipeg South Centre December 12, 2022 (2022-12-12) No later than June 11, 2023 (2023-06-11)[15] No earlier than June 11, 2023
No later than July 31, 2023 (2023-07-31)[15] 		Jim Carr Liberal Death (multiple myeloma and kidney failure)
Mississauga—Lakeshore May 27, 2022 (2022-05-27) November 6, 2022 (2022-11-06) December 12, 2022 (2022-12-12) Sven Spengemann Liberal Resigned to accept a position with the United Nations Charles Sousa Liberal Yes


December 12, 2022 by-election

Mississauga—Lakeshore

Main article: 2022 Mississauga—Lakeshore federal by-election

The riding of Mississauga—Lakeshore was vacated on May 27, 2022 following the resignation of Liberal MP Sven Spengemann to accept a position with the United Nations.[2] Spengemann had represented the riding since 2015, when he defeated Conservative incumbent Stella Ambler.

Running for the Liberals is former MPP Charles Sousa, who represented the area provincially from 2007 to 2018 and previously served in the provincial cabinets of Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne, including as Minister of Finance from 2013 to 2018.[16][17][18] Alex Crombie, a former Queen's Park staffer and son of Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie, was seen as a potential candidate prior to Sousa's nomination.[19]

Running for the Conservatives is Ron Chhinzer, a police officer.[17] Michael Ras, who finished second to Spengemann in 2021, considered running for the nomination before declining.[16]

The NDP has nominated Julia Cole, who ran for the seat's provincial counterpart in the provincial election earlier in the year, while running for the Greens is Mary Kidnew, a past president of the Hillcrest Ratepayers Association.[17][20]

Rhinoceros Party leader Sébastien CoRhino will contest the by-election.[21] As well, the Rhinoceros Party organized a protest against the Trudeau government's abandonment of electoral reform in 2017 by running thirty-two[citation needed] independent candidates, breaking their own record for most candidates nominated in a single riding in Canada, previously set in the riding of Saint Boniface—Saint Vital in the 2021 Canadian federal election.[22]


Canadian federal by-election, December 12, 2022: Mississauga—Lakeshore
Resignation of Sven Spengemann
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal Charles Sousa 12,766 51.45 +6.50
Conservative Ron Chhinzer 9,215 37.14 -1.54
New Democratic Julia Kole 1,231 4.96 -4.79
Green Mary Kidnew 792 3.19 +0.94
People's Khaled Al-Sudani 293 1.18 -3.03
Independent Sean Carson 48 0.19 —
Independent Charles Currie 44 0.18 —
Independent Patrick Strzalkowski 38 0.15 —
Independent Peter House 31 0.12 —
Independent Mélodie Anderson 29 0.12 —
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino 24 0.10 -0.07
Independent Conrad Lukawski 23 0.09 —
Independent Adam Smith 23 0.09 —
Independent Stephen Davis 21 0.08 —
Independent Marie-Hélène LeBel 17 0.07 —
Independent Eliana Rosenblum 17 0.07 —
Independent Myriam Beaulieu 16 0.06 —
Independent Roger Sherwood 14 0.06 —
Independent John The Engineer Turmel 14 0.06 —
Independent Jevin David Carroll 12 0.05 —
Independent Spencer Rocchi 12 0.05 —
Independent Tomas Szuchewycz 12 0.05 —
Independent Julie St-Amand 11 0.04 —
Independent Mark Dejewski 11 0.04 —
Independent Julian Selody 10 0.04 —
Independent Ben Teichman 10 0.04 —
Independent Mylène Bonneau 9 0.04 —
Independent Kerri Hildebrandt 9 0.04 —
Independent Line Bélanger 8 0.03 —
Independent Alexandra Engering 8 0.03 —
Independent Samuel Jubinville 8 0.03 —
Independent Jean-Denis Parent Boudreault 7 0.03 —
Independent Daniel Gagnon 7 0.03 —
Independent Darcy Justin Vanderwater 6 0.02 —
Independent Donovan Eckstrom 5 0.02 —
Independent Donald Gagnon 5 0.02 —
Independent Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville 3 0.01 —
Independent Ysack Dupont 2 0.01 —
Independent Pascal St-Amand 2 0.01 —
Independent Alain Lamontagne 1 0.00 —
Total valid votes 24,814
Total rejected ballots 135 0.54
Turnout 24,949 27.76
Eligible voters 89,863
Liberal hold Swing +4.02
Source: Elections Canada[23][24]

Polling

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling 		Link Liberal Cons. NDP Green PPC Others Undecided Margin
of Error[1] 		Sample
Size[2] 		Polling Method[3]
Mainstreet Research October 27, 2022 PDF 38.6 35.5 6.0 4.1 1.1 1.5 13.2 ±4.3 pp 521 IVR

Upcoming by-elections

Winnipeg South Centre

The riding of Winnipeg South Centre was vacated on December 12, 2022 following the death of Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr.[3] Carr had represented the riding since 2015, when he defeated Conservative incumbent Joyce Bateman, and had been battling multiple myeloma and kidney failure since 2019. Carr also defeated Bateman in rematches in 2019 and 2021.

Running for the Liberals is Carr's son Ben, an educator and former staffer to Mélanie Joly.[25][26][27] Winnipeg city councillor Sherri Rollins briefly ran for the nomination before withdrawing and throwing her support behind Carr.[28][29]

The Conservatives have nominated Damir Stipanovic, an air traffic controller and member of the Royal Canadian Air Force Reserve.[27]

Running again after previously running in 2021 are NDP candidate Julia Riddell, a clinical psychologist, and Green candidate Doug Hemmerling, a local educator.[27]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Winnipeg South Centre
Death of Jim Carr
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Ben Carr
Conservative Damir Stipanovic
New Democratic Julia Riddell
People's
Green Doug Hemmerling
Communist
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Calgary Heritage

The riding of Calgary Heritage was vacated on December 31, 2022 following the October 20 announcement from Conservative MP Bob Benzen that he would resign his seat by the end of the year in order to return to the private sector. Benzen had held the seat since a 2017 by-election in which he was elected to replace former Prime Minister and former Conservative leader Stephen Harper.[4][30]

Shuvaloy Majumdar, global director for Harper's international consulting firm Harper & Associates defeated former parliamentary staffer Quinn Heffron for the Conservative nomination.[31][32][33]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Calgary Heritage
Resignation of Bob Benzen
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Shuvaloy Majumdar
New Democratic
Liberal
People's
Green Ravenmoon Crocker
Maverick
Rhinoceros
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Oxford

The riding of Oxford was vacated on January 28, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie, who had held the seat since 2004.[5]

Arpan Khanna, the party's national outreach chair and 2019 candidate in Brampton North[34] defeated Woodstock city-county councillor Deb Tait, MacKenzie's daughter and former ministerial staffer Rick Roth for the Conservative nomination.[33][35] Gerrit Van Dorland, executive assistant to Cypress Hills—Grasslands MP Jeremy Patzer was running for the nomination until he was disqualified by the Conservatives over a dispute about whether he disclosed information to the party.[36] In February 2023, MacKenzie accused the party of supporting Khanna, which he argues is a violation of the party nomination rules based on the Conservative's code of conduct, during the race.[37][38]

Local realtor, former educator, and past Woodstock mayor candidate David Hilderley is running for the Liberal nomination.[39] Citing concerns with the Conservative nomination process, previous MP Dave MacKenzie endorsed Hilderley in April 2023.[39]

Western University professor Cody Groat defeated Matthew Chambers, the party candidate for the riding in the 2019 and 2021 elections for the NDP nomination.[40][41]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Oxford
Resignation of Dave MacKenzie
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Arpan Khanna
Liberal
New Democratic Cody Groat
People's
Green
Christian Heritage
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Portage—Lisgar

The riding of Portage—Lisgar was vacated on February 28, 2023 following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen.[42][43] Bergen, a cabinet minister in the government of Stephen Harper and the interim leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition from February to September 2022, had held the seat since 2008.

Bergen's former campaign manager Branden Leslie defeated Rejeanne Caron, the party's 2019 candidate in Saint Boniface—Saint Vital and 2021 candidate in Elmwood—Transcona; Winkler resident Don Cruickshank,[44] Morden-Winkler MLA and former Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba cabinet minister Cameron Friesen;[45] and Lawrence Toet, the MP for Elmwood—Transcona from 2011 to 2015 for the Conservative nomination.[6][46][47] Liz Reimer, a Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba staffer and former assistant to Friesen, and Josh Okello were previously running for the nomination, however after Friesen announced his campaign they withdrew their bids in order to run for the Progressive Conservative nomination in Morden-Winkler.[48][49][50]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Portage—Lisgar
Resignation of Candice Bergen
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Branden Leslie
People's
New Democratic
Liberal
Christian Heritage
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount

The riding of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount was vacated on March 8, 2023 following the resignation of Liberal MP Marc Garneau.[8] Garneau, previously the Minister of Transport and Minister of Foreign Affairs in the government of Justin Trudeau, had held the seat since 2008.

Running for the Liberal nomination is Anna Gainey, former president of the party and daughter of former Montreal Canadiens General Manager Bob Gainey.[51] Fred Headon, vice president and general counsel of Air Canada is considering running for the nomination.[52]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount
Resignation of Marc Garneau
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal
New Democratic
Conservative
Bloc Québécois
Green
People's
Marxist–Leninist
Christian Heritage
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Durham

The riding of Durham, represented by former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole, is expected to be vacated at the end of the House of Commons' spring parliamentary session, currently dated for June 23, 2023.[9] O'Toole, who led the party from 2020 to 2022 and served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in the government of Stephen Harper, has held the seat since a 2012 by-election.

Running for the Conservative nomination is Jamil Jivani, conservative commentator and president of the Canada Strong and Free Network.[53]

Canadian federal by-election, TBD: Durham
Pending resignation of Erin O'Toole
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative
Liberal
New Democratic
People's
Rhinoceros
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters

Notes

  1. ^ O'Toole remains an MP; however, he is expected to resign in mid 2023[9]

References

  1. ^ "Q&A: The NDP and Liberals have a confidence and supply agreement. So what is it?". The Toronto Star. 2022-03-22. ISSN 0319-0781. Retrieved 2022-05-19.
  2. ^ a b Tumilty, Ryan (May 18, 2022). "Liberal MP Sven Spengemann to resign from GTA seat almost eight months after re-election". Montreal Gazette. Retrieved May 18, 2022.
  3. ^ a b Aiello, Rachel (December 12, 2022). "Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Jim Carr dies". CTV News. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
  4. ^ a b "Conservative MP announces intention to step away from politics". CBC News. October 20, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  5. ^ a b "Dave MacKenzie Announces Retirement Plans". 104.7 Heart FM. Retrieved 2022-12-15.
  6. ^ a b Sanders, Carol (January 24, 2023). "Former PC staffer plans to take run at Portage-Lisgar seat". The Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved January 26, 2023.
  7. ^ "Profile - Bergen, Candice". Library of Parliament. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
  8. ^ a b Raycraft, Richard (March 8, 2023). "Former cabinet minister Marc Garneau resigning from House of Commons". CBC News. Retrieved March 8, 2023.
  9. ^ a b c D'Andrea, Aaron (March 31, 2023). "Erin O'Toole, former Conservative leader, leaving politics: 'Honour of a lifetime'". Global News. Retrieved April 1, 2023.
  10. ^ "Journalists vying for seat in Commons shows politics changing: Spector". The Hill Times. August 12, 2013. Retrieved August 4, 2020.
  11. ^ a b Elections Canada (March 10, 2023). "A By-Election Will Take Place in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount". Retrieved March 12, 2023.
  12. ^ a b Elections Canada (March 2, 2023). "A By-Election Will Take Place in Portage–Lisgar". Retrieved March 12, 2023.
  13. ^ a b Elections Canada (February 2, 2023). "A Federal Seat is Vacant in Oxford". Retrieved March 12, 2023.
  14. ^ a b Elections Canada (January 5, 2023). "A Federal Seat is Vacant in Calgary Heritage". Retrieved March 12, 2023.
  15. ^ a b Elections Canada (December 16, 2022). "A Federal Seat is Vacant in Winnipeg South Centre". Retrieved March 12, 2023.
  16. ^ a b Rana, Abbas (June 3, 2022). "Former Ontario finance minister Sousa not ruling out run for federal Liberal nomination in coveted Mississauga-Lakeshore riding". The Hill Times. Retrieved June 3, 2022.
  17. ^ a b c Rana, Abbas (October 17, 2022). "'High stakes' byelection in Mississauga-Lakeshore considered 'first battle of the next general election campaign,' say political insiders". The Hill Times. Retrieved October 18, 2022.
  18. ^ Callan, Isaac (November 5, 2022). "Former Ontario finance minister Charles Sousa set to run in federal byelection". Global News. Retrieved November 5, 2022.
  19. ^ Rana, Abbas (October 31, 2022). "Alex Crombie could seek Liberal nomination for byelection in Mississauga-Lakeshore". The Hill Times. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
  20. ^ Cornwell, Steven (August 20, 2022). "'NDP and Green Party announce candidates for upcoming Mississauga federal byelection". Mississauga News. Retrieved October 18, 2022.
  21. ^ Sébastien CoRhino (November 9, 2022). "Done deal. Next thing: I'll win this election. Get ready Mississauga!!!!". Facebook. Retrieved November 13, 2022.((cite web)): CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  22. ^ Patrick Cain (November 22, 2022). "Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection will have at least 40 candidates, a national record". ipolitics.ca. Retrieved November 24, 2022.((cite web)): CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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  24. ^ "Election Night Results - Electoral Districts". Elections Canada. 16 December 2022. Retrieved 22 December 2022.
  25. ^ Kives, Bartley (January 2, 2023). "Ben Carr, son of late Liberal MP, mulls following in father's footsteps in Winnipeg South Centre". CBC News. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
  26. ^ "Son of late MP Jim Carr to seek Liberal party nomination to run in Winnipeg riding". CTV News. 2023-02-02. Retrieved 2023-02-03.
  27. ^ a b c Kives, Bartley (April 28, 2023). "Candidate field almost set for Winnipeg South Centre byelection". CBC News. Retrieved May 2, 2023.
  28. ^ Froese, Ian (January 11, 2023). "Winnipeg city councillor Sherri Rollins seeks federal Liberal nomination in byelection". CBC News. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
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  32. ^ Rana, Abbas (November 21, 2022). "Stephen Harper's global director Shuvaloy Majumdar said to be eyeing coveted Calgary Heritage seat". The Hill Times. Retrieved December 11, 2022.
  33. ^ a b Rana, Abbas (January 6, 2023). "Conservative Party's outreach chair Khanna to duke it out with Tory MP MacKenzie's daughter Tait and former Hill staffer Roth in coveted Oxford, Ont., nomination bid". The Hill Times. Retrieved January 9, 2023.
  34. ^ "'Hijacked': Riding officials quit after heated Conservative nomination fight". lfpress. Retrieved 2023-04-09.
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  36. ^ "Conservatives defend ousting Ontario candidate amid anger from anti-abortion group | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 2023-03-16.
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  39. ^ a b "Former Ontario Tory MP backing Liberal in byelection in riding". The Globe and Mail. 2023-04-24. Retrieved 2023-04-25.
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  44. ^ "Don Cruickshank steps up to start line in race to represent Portage-Lisgar in Ottawa". PembinaValleyOnline. Retrieved 2023-02-14.
  45. ^ "'An opportunity': Manitoba finance minister quits for federal run". Winnipeg. 2023-01-27. Retrieved 2023-01-29.
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  48. ^ "Reimer revises political bid, now seeking Morden-Winkler PC nomination". PembinaValleyOnline. Retrieved 2023-04-29.
  49. ^ "Kenyan-born candidate brings international perspective to Conservative contest in Portage-Lisgar". PembinaValleyOnline. Retrieved 2023-02-22.
  50. ^ "Josh Okello gives up federal aspirations to run for Morden-Winkler MLA". PembinaValleyOnline. Retrieved 2023-04-29.
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