Impact on the natural environment
Temperature and weather changes
Between 1960 and 2006, the main annual temperature increased by 1.3°C. On average, the rate would be 0.28°C in temperature per decade.[3][4] A study from 2008 predicted further warming of 0.7°C and 2.3°C by 2020s and 1.4°C by 2050s.[5]
Rainfall, droughts and floods
Ethiopia has two main wet seasons per year. It rains in the spring and summer. These seasonal patterns of rainfall vary a lot across the country.[7][8] Western Ethiopia has a seasonal rainfall pattern that is similar to the Sahel. It has rainfall from February to November (which is decreasing to the north), and has peak rainfall from June to September. Southern Ethiopia has a rainfall pattern similar to the one in East Africa. There are two distinct wet seasons every year, February to May, and October to November.[9][8] Central and eastern Ethiopia has some rainfall between February and November, with a smaller peak in rainfall from March to May and a second higher peak from June to September.[8]
In 2022 Ethiopia had one of the most severe La Niña-induced droughts in the last forty years. It came about due to four consecutive rainy seasons which did not produce enough rain.[10] This drought increased water insecurity for more than 8 million pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in the Somali, Oromia, SNNP and South-West regions. About 7.2 million people needed food aid, and 4.4 million people needed help to access water. Food prices have increased a lot due to the drought conditions. Many people in the affected area have experienced food shortages due to the water insecurity situation.[10]
The exact attribution of climate change to the occurrence of droughts and floods in Ethiopia is difficult. One study from 2022 stated for Ethiopia: "While regional models predict increase in rainfall, higher resolution analyses for Ethiopia suggest spatial variations in which there are both increases and decreases in the overall rainfall averages. An increase in the rainfall variability is also predicted, with a rising frequency of both extreme flooding and droughts that could seriously affect agricultural production."[1]
Significant droughts lead to drying of water resources and eventually water scarcity. Subsequent outcomes include poor hygiene and can lead to faeco-oral transmission of disease.[1]
In 2016, deadly floods hit Ethiopia, leaving at least 200 people dead and over 200,000 people homeless as seasonal rains came early to the country.[11] Causes for floods can be deforestation, presence of rivers such as the Baro, Akobo, Gilo, and Alwero, in low lying homogeneous topography and climate change.[1]
Climate change affects many factors associated with droughts. These include how much rain falls and how fast the rain evaporates again. Warming over land increases the severity and frequency of droughts around much of the world.[13][12]: 1057 In some tropical and subtropical regions of the world, there will probably be less rain due to global warming. This will make them more prone to drought. Droughts are set to worsen in many regions of the world. These include Central America, the Amazon and south-western South America. They also include West and Southern Africa. The Mediterranean and south-western Australia are also some of these regions.[12]: 1157
Higher temperatures increase evaporation. This dries the soil and increases plant stress. Agriculture suffers as a result. This means even regions where overall rainfall is expected to remain relatively stable will experience these impacts.[12]: 1157 These regions include central and northern Europe. Without climate change mitigation, around one third of land areas are likely to experience moderate or more severe drought by 2100.[12]: 1157 Due to global warming droughts are more frequent and intense than in the past.[14]
Several impacts make their impacts worse. These are increased water demand, population growth and urban expansion in many areas.[15] Land restoration can help reduce the impact of droughts. One example of this is agroforestry.[16]