Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
AuthorNassim Nicholas Taleb
CountryUnited States
LanguageEnglish
SeriesIncerto
SubjectHuman knowledge, Statistics, Philosophy, Finance
PublisherRandom House
Publication date
2001
Media typePrint, e-book
Pages316
ISBN0-8129-7521-9
OCLC60349198
123/.3 22
LC ClassHG4521 .T285 2005
Followed byThe Black Swan 

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that deals with the fallibility of human knowledge. It was first published in 2001. Updated editions were released a few years later. The book is the first part of Taleb's multi-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty, titled the Incerto, which also includes The Black Swan (2007–2010), The Bed of Procrustes (2010–2016), Antifragile (2012), and Skin in the Game (2018).

Thesis

Taleb sets forth the idea that modern humans are often unaware of the existence of randomness. They tend to explain random outcomes as non-random.

Human beings:

  1. overestimate causality, e.g., they see elephants in the clouds instead of understanding that they are in fact randomly shaped clouds that appear to our eyes as elephants (or something else);
  2. tend to view the world as more explainable than it really is. So they look for explanations even when there are none.

Other misperceptions of randomness that are discussed include:

Reaction

The book was selected by Fortune as one of the 75 "Smartest Books of All Time."[1] U.S.A Today recounted that many criticisms raised in this book of the financial industry turned out to be justified.[2] Forbes described the book as being playful, self-effacing and at times insufferably arrogant, but always thought provoking.[3] The New Yorker (one of the publications which receives more favourable comments in this book) said that the book was to conventional Wall Street wisdom what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine [sic] theses were to the Catholic Church.[4]

Editions

See also

References

  1. ^ Useem, Jerry (21 March 2005). "The Smartest Books We Know". Fortune.
  2. ^ Mouton, Andre (19 August 2013). "Does big data have us 'fooled by randomness'?". U.S.A Today. Retrieved 28 August 2013.
  3. ^ Sizemore, Charles (23 January 2013). "Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile' Celebrates Randomness In People, Markets". Forbes.com. Retrieved 28 August 2013.
  4. ^ "Book review : Fooled by randomness". The New Yorker. Retrieved 24 August 2020.
  5. ^ fooled by randomness