Next Irish general election
Republic of Ireland
← 2020 On or before 20 February 2025
171 to 181 seats (exact number TBC) in Dáil Éireann
86–91 (TBC) seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
Fianna Fáil Micheál Martin 36
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald 36
Fine Gael Leo Varadkar 34
Green Eamon Ryan 12
Labour Ivana Bacik 7
Social Democrats Holly Cairns 6
PBP–Solidarity Collective leadership 5
Aontú Peadar Tóibín 1
RTOC Joan Collins 1
Independent N/A 21
Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl 1
Incumbent Taoiseach
Leo Varadkar
Fine Gael

The next Irish general election to Dáil Éireann, the lower house of Ireland's parliament, the Oireachtas, will be held by March 2025, to elect between 171 and 181 TDs across Dáil constituencies of between 3 and 5 seats.

The 33rd Dáil must be dissolved by the president at the request of the Taoiseach no later than 19 February 2025. The current Taoiseach is Leo Varadkar, leader of Fine Gael, who is leading a coalition government of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party. He took office as Taoiseach in December 2022, following a rotation agreement with Micheál Martin, leader of Fianna Fáil, who had served as Taoiseach from June 2020.

After the 2020 general election, the Dáil met on 20 February, but no candidate was nominated by the Dáil to form a government. Varadkar resigned as Taoiseach, but continued to carry out duties pending the appointment of his successor.[1] Negotiations concluded on 27 June 2020 with an agreement for a three-party coalition, with both Martin and Varadkar serving as Taoiseach during the 33rd Dáil.

Constituency review

The size of the Dáil will increase from 160 TDs at the next election. The Electoral Commission is carrying out a review of constituencies which will be completed by the end of August 2023.[2] This will be the first review of constituencies carried out by the Commission established under the Electoral Reform Act 2022, where previously they had been carried out by a Constituency Commission.

The preliminary results of the 2022 census showed a population of over 5.1 million, which would require a minimum Dáil size of 171 TDs.[3] The Commission is required by law to recommend a size of the Dáil of between 171 and 181 TDs.[4] This range reflects the growth in the population of the state, and the requirement of Article 16.6.2° of the Constitution of Ireland that there be one TD elected for no less than every 20,000 of the population and no more than every 30,000.[5] This would be the largest number in the history of the State, surpassing the previous number of 166 TDs from 1981 to 2016. The number of constituencies may also change, depending on the recommendations of the constituency review, which is due to be published in July 2023.[6] Each constituency will return between three and five TDs, elected on the system of single transferable vote, in which voters rank candidates on their ballot papers.

Electoral system

Main article: Single transferable vote

When the ballot papers are counted, a quota is determined by dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats, plus one. Any candidate receiving a number of votes exceeding the quota is elected. If fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is removed from the count and the second or subsequent preferences on those ballot papers are redistributed until a candidate is elected. If such a candidate now has more votes than the quota, their surplus is given to other candidates in order of ranking on the ballot papers. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have passed the quota to fill the available seats,[7] or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution then the highest place candidate without a quota is deemed elected at that point.

The outgoing Ceann Comhairle (currently Seán Ó Fearghaíl) will be returned automatically unless he announces to the Dáil that he wishes to retire as a TD.[8]

Date of election

The current Dáil must be dissolved no later than Wednesday 19 February 2025. This date is calculated from the provisions of Electoral Act 1992, Section 33, which states that the same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting.[9] The writ for the election must be moved on the dissolution of the Dáil.[10] The election must take place on a day 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day) after the writs have been moved.[11][12]

Retiring incumbents

The following members of the 33rd Dáil are not seeking re-election:

Constituency Departing TD Party First elected Date confirmed
Donegal Joe McHugh Fine Gael 2007 4 May 2022[13][14]
Kerry Brendan Griffin Fine Gael 2011 31 January 2023[15]
Roscommon–Galway Denis Naughten Independent 1997 13 February 2023[16]
Carlow–Kilkenny John Paul Phelan Fine Gael 2011 18 April 2023[17]
Cork North-West Michael Creed Fine Gael 2007 24 April 2023[18]
Cork East David Stanton Fine Gael 1997 23 May 2023[19]

Opinion polls

Various organisations conduct regular opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Irish general election, held on 8 February 2020, to the next election, which can be held no later than March 2025.

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Last date
of polling 		Polling firm / Commissioner Sample
size 		SF FF FG GP Lab SD PBP–S Aon O/I[nb 1]
23 June 2023 Red C/Business Post[p 1] ? 29 16 22 4 5 5 3 2 14
13 June 2023 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 2] 1,200 31 21 18 4 4 5 2 1 14
2 June 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 3] 1,136 32 19 20 3 3 6 2 3 13
24 May 2023 Red C/Business Post[p 4] 1,011 34 15 20 4 4 6 3 1 13
9 May 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 5] 906 35 22 17 5 4 3 1 1 12
6 May 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 6] 1,175 31 19 20 3 4 5 4 2 12
26 April 2023 Red C/Business Post[p 7] 1,016 31 16 22 4 4 5 2 2 14
4 April 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 8] 909 37 21 15 6 4 4 2 2 8
1 April 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 9] 1,102 31 16 22 4 3 7 3 3 10
22 March 2023 Red C/Business Post[p 10] 1,005 31 15 22 3 4 6 3 2 14
14 March 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 11][p 12] 943 32 20 23 5 5 4 2 – [nb 2] 9
3 March 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 13] 1,162 29 19 21 4 3 9 2 3 10
22 February 2023 Red C/Business Post[p 14] 998 31 17 21 4 4 4 3 2 14
21 February 2023 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 15] 1,200 35 18 22 4 4 2 – [nb 2] – [nb 2] 16
14 February 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 16] 921 31 24 23 5 5 2 1 – [nb 2] 9
3 February 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 17] 1,212 31 18 22 4 4 4 3 4 10
25 January 2023 Red C/Business Post[p 18] 1,004 33 15 21 4 4 6 3 2 12
17 January 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 19] 936 34 25 19 5 4 2 2 1 8
6 January 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 20] 1,104 32 16 25 4 3 3 4 3 10
6 December 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 21] 923 34 21 23 5 3 1 1 – [nb 2] 12
2 December 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 22] 1,352 34 17 23 3 3 5 3 4 9
23 November 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 23] >1,000 31 15 24 5 4 4 3 2 11
8 November 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 24] 923 34 23 21 4 5 2 1 1 9
4 November 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 25] 1,002 34 17 21 3 3 4 5 4 10
25 October 2022 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 26] 1,200 35 21 22 4 3 3 2 1 10
15 October 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 27] 931 34 22 21 4 6 2 2 0 9
1 October 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 28] 1,254 37 17 21 4 3 3 4 3 8
6 September 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 29] 1,004 35 17 18 5 4 4 3 2 12
6 September 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 30] 905 35 24 20 5 4 3 2 0 8
2 September 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 31] ? 36 16 21 2 3 4 5 3 11
6 August 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 32] ? 36 17 22 4 3 4 4 3 9
12 July 2022 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 33][p 34] 1,200 36 20 18 3 4 2 3 1 14
1 July 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 35] 1,133 36 15 22 4 4 3 3 3 10
22 June 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 36] 1,004 36 14 19 4 3 4 4 3 12
7 June 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 37] ? 37 22 23 4 5 0 1 1 8
4 June 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 38] 1,211 35 17 20 3 4 5 3 3 8
25 May 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 39] 1,000+ 36 15 20 5 3 4 3 2 11
10 May 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 40][p 41] 908 36 24 19 2 5 2 2 1 9
7 May 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 42] 1,002 34 16 23 3 4 4 4 3 8
27 April 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 43] 1,014 34 16 21 4 4 5 3 2 11
1 April 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 44] 1,135 33 18 22 3 4 6 2 3 10
23 March 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 45] 1,001 33 16 19 5 5 5 3 2 12
8 March 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 46] 928 33 23 24 4 3 1 2 1 9
4 March 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 47] 1,011 31 20 21 4 3 6 4 2 9
23 February 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 48] 1,001 33 17 20 5 4 4 3 2 11
8 February 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 49] 922 34 25 20 5 4 2 1 0 9
5 February 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 50] 1,086 32 17 23 4 3 5 3 3 10
26 January 2022 Red C/Business Post[p 51] 1,001 33 15 21 6 4 5 2 2 12
18 January 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 52] ? 34 24 22 3 4 1 2 0 10
8 January 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[p 53] 1,369 33 19 23 3 4 4 3 2 9
12 December 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 54] ? 31 17 25 4 4 3 4 3 9
8 December 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 55] 933 34 23 20 5 5 2 1 0 9
8 December 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 56][p 57] 1,200 35 20 20 5 4 2 2 1 10
25 November 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 58] 1,001 33 15 22 5 4 5 2 2 10
14 November 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 59] ? 32 17 24 5 5 4 3 3 7
9 November 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 60] 912 37 20 21 5 3 3 1 1 8
22 October 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 61] ? 33 12 25 4 5 6 3 2 10
16 October 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 62] 1,200 31 16 26 6 4 4 3 3 – [nb 2]
12 October 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 63] 943 31 23 21 5 5 4 1 1 8
5 October 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 64][p 65] 1,200 32 20 22 7 4 3 2 1 10
18 September 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 66] 1,000 29 19 23 4 4 6 4 4 – [nb 2]
9 September 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 67] 1,031 29 13 28 4 5 5 3 2 10
8 September 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 68] 922 33 21 23 5 5 2 2 0 8
21 August 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 69] 1,203 30 15 24 4 6 6 3 3 9
17 July 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 70] 1,001 30 14 25 4 7 5 4 4 7
13 July 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 71] 894 30 20 25 5 5 1 3 1 10
26 June 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 72] 1,020 29 13 30 5 3 4 2 2 12
19 June 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 73] 1,274 32 15 24 3 4 5 4 4 10
15 June 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 74] 1,200 31 20 27 6 3 2 2 1 8
8 June 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 75] 909 34 20 24 4 3 4 1 1 9
27 May 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 76][p 77] 1,034 29 14 29 5 3 5 3 2 10
18 May 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 78] 914 30 22 28 5 4 2 1 – [nb 2] 8
15 May 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 79] 1,237 30 15 25 3 4 7 3 4 9
22 April 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 80] 1,025 27 13 30 4 5 5 2 2 11
15 April 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 81] 1,087 27 16 26 3 5 6 3 4 10
25 March 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 82] 1,000 29 11 30 5 4 5 2 2 11
20 March 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 83] 1,026 31 14 27 2 5 7 3 3 8
25 February 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 84][p 85] 1,000 29 13 29 3 4 6 2 2 12
23 February 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 86] 1,200 28 14 30 6 3 3 1 1 14
12 February 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 87] 1,068 28 15 26 5 5 6 3 4 9
28 January 2021 Red C/Business Post[p 88][p 89] 1,000 27 16 29 5 3 5 3 2 10
17 January 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 90] 1,247 29 15 28 3 5 5 3 4 7
15 December 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 91] 916 32 22 27 3 5 1 2 0 7
29 November 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 92] 1,044 28 17 28 4 4 5 2 4 9
25 November 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 93] 1,000 30 12 33 5 3 4 3 2 8
24 October 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 94][p 95] 1,000 27 11 37 6 3 3 2 2 9
17 October 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 96] 931 30 19 31 5 4 2 2 1 5
6 October 2020 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 97] 1,200 29 17 35 4 4 2 1 – [nb 2] 8
26 September 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 98] 1,200 28 14 32 4 4 5 3 3 7
15 September 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 99] 900 32 19 30 5 3 1 1 0 9
9 September 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 100] 1,000 27 10 35 6 3 4 2 2 10
22 August 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 101] 1,000 30 11 35 3 5 5 2 2 7
28 July 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 102] 921 30 20 29 6 3 1 1 0 11
18 July 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 103] 1,000 26 12 38 5 4 3 2 – [nb 2] 10
20 June 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 104] 1,000 27 13 34 8 4 3 2 – [nb 2] 10
14 June 2020 Ipsos MRBI/|Irish Times[p 105] 1,200 25 13 37 12 2 [nb 3] [nb 3] [nb 3] 10[nb 3]
27 May 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 106][p 107] 1,000 27 15 35 5 3 4 2 1 8
23 May 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 108] 1,012 27 16 36 6 4 3 2 – [nb 2] 6
29 April 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 109][p 110] 1,019 27 14 35 7 3 3 2 1 8
25 March 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 111][p 112] 1,062 28 18 34 5 3 3 2 2 5
10 March 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 113][p 114] 912 35 19 21 6 3 1 3 0 11
25 February 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 115][p 116] 917 35 20 18 6 3 2 3 1 12
16 February 2020 Amárach Research/Extra.ie[p 117][p 118] 1,040 35 17 18 9 3 5 3 – [nb 2] 10
8 February 2020 General election – 24.5 22.2 20.9 7.1 4.4 2.9 2.6 1.9 13.9
Notes
  1. ^ The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Not specifically mentioned in the report.
  3. ^ a b c d The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. In the MRBI Poll conducted up to 14 June this figure appears to include all independents as well as all of PBP/S, Aontú and the SocDems.
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