Next Montenegrin legislative election
Montenegro
← 2020 No later than August 2024

All 81 seats in the Parliament
41 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
DPS Milo Đukanović 29
DF Collective leadership 20
MNN Aleksa Bečić 10
SNP Vladimir Joković 5
CnB Dritan Abazović 4
SD Damir Šehović 3
BS Ervin Ibrahimović 3
SDP-LP Raško Konjević 3
AL Nik Gjeloshaj 1
PD Fatmir Gjeka 1
PCG Marko Milačić 1
UCG Goran Danilović 1
Incumbent PM
Dritan Abazović
URA

Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Montenegro no later than August 2024, although they may be held earlier if a snap election is called.

Background

Following the results of 2020 Montenegrin parliamentary election, which resulted in a victory for the opposition and the fall from power of the ruling DPS, after ruling country for 30 years, three opposition lists, ZBCG, MNN and the URA, agreed to form an expert government led by university professor Zdravko Krivokapić. According to the final agreement of the parties, the new government will be limited to one year, with the main goals; the fight against corruption and the depoliticization of public institutions after 30 years of DPS rule, as well as the reform of electoral laws, due to the preparation of an atmosphere for holding a new, "first fairly organized" elections.[1][2][3] Right-wing populist DF, announced limited support for the Krivokapić Cabinet, hoping for new parliamentary elections in late 2021. While the opposition nationalist DPS of President Đukanović announced future activities within the so-called "Montenegrin statehood bloc", together with its long-standing minor coalition partners; the SD and LP, as well with some newly formed nationalist parties and initiatives, invoking its role in restoring Montenegrin statehood in 2006, as well accusing the new cabinet of allegedly "threatening Montenegro's national interests, sovereignty and independence".[4]

Electoral system

The 81 seats of the Parliament of Montenegro are elected in a single nationwide constituency using closed list proportional representation. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with a 3% electoral threshold. However, minority groups that account for no more than 15% of the population in a district are given an exemption that lowers the electoral threshold to 0.7%. The parties of the same minority are summed up when calculating the seats to a maximum of three seats.[5] A separate exemption is given to ethnic Croats whereby if no list representing the population passes the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes will win one seat if it receives more than 0.35% of the vote.[6]

Opinion polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. The threshold for a party to elect members is 3%.

Date Polling firm/source DPS SD DF SNP UCG PCG ES DCG Demos CnB BS SDP AL AK Others Lead
May 2022 RMA 23.5 2.8 17.9 8.5 2.0 2.3 3.7 12.4 1.5 9.2 6.4 5.8 - 4.0 5.6
Jan 2022 NSPM[a] 26.4 2.2 15 2.8 2.5 11 17.1 1.2 7.8 3.7 5.6 2.1 2.6 9.3
Dec 2021 CeDem 30.5 2.4 20.4 2.9 2 1.8 19.3 6.2 6.1 4.3 2.4 1.7 8.1
June 2021 CeDem 31 3.4 18.7 3.5 1.3 1.9 18.4 1.6 6.4 4.4 3 2.9[b] 1.2 2.3 11
Oct 2020 Damar 32.5 3.4 28.8 15.8 11.0 3.5 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.7
Sep 2020 NSPM[a] 20.8 2.6 10.3[c] 3.1 4.4 24.5 13.8 0.8 11.3 3.4 2.3 2.1 1.6 3.7
Sep 2020 CeDem[a] 29.2 4.8 34.8 14.1 8.3 3.8 2.0 1.9 0.9 2.1 5.6
Sep 2020 CeDem 30.5 5.1 20.8 6.6 0.3 1.8 14.5 2.1 9.2 3.8 2.3 2.4[d] 0.7 2.3 9.7
Aug 2020 Election results 35.0 4.1 32.5 12.5 5.5 3.9 3.1 1.6 1.1 0.4 2.5
Notes
  1. ^ a b c Hypothetical poll
  2. ^ includes Forca 1.1%, AA 1.8%
  3. ^ includes DNP 4.7%, NSD 3.6%, PzP 1%
  4. ^ includes AA 1.7%, Forca 0.4%, DSA 0.1%

References

  1. ^ Stručnjaci u vladi oročeni na godinu, Pibjeda/Antena M, 30 October 2020. Retrieved 25 February 2021
  2. ^ Ovo je konačan spisak kandidata za Krivokapićevu vladu, CdM, 5 November 2020. Retrieved 25 February 2021
  3. ^ Ovo su biografije kandidata za nove ministre, Vijesti, 7 November 2020. Retrieved 25 February 2021
  4. ^ Kakve promene očekuju crnogorsku političku scenu u novoj godini?, Talas, 30 December 2020
  5. ^ c.f. Art. 94 [1], Retrieved 25 February 2021, Archived 8 September 2020 at the Wayback Machine
  6. ^ Electoral system Archived 24 July 2016 at the Wayback Machine, Inter-parliamentary Union