Various opinion polls took place ahead of the 2004 Democratic Party presidential primaries.
| Candidate | 6 December 2002 | 29 January 2003 | 20 June 2003 | 26 July 2003 | 22 September 2003 | 23 September 2003 | 1 October 2003 | 8 October 2003 | 21 October 2003 | 18 November 2003 | 2 December 2003 | 6 January 2004 | 7 January 2004 | 13 January 2004 | 15 January 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Kerry | 18% | 24% | 15% | 14% | 20% | 13% | 17% | 16% | 9% | 15% | 9% | 15% | 18% | 21% | 26% |
| Wesley Clark | - | - | - | - | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Howard Dean | 1% | 8% | 15% | 23% | 21% | 17% | 23% | 26% | 21% | 29% | 26% | 23% | 30% | 22% | 20% |
| John Edwards | 4% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 23% |
| Joe Lieberman | 16% | 13% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Dick Gephardt | 26% | 23% | 25% | 21% | 18% | 24% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 18% | 23% | 18% | 18% |
| Dennis Kucinich | - | - | 3% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 3% |
| Al Sharpton | - | 2% | - | - | - | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | - | - | 1% |
| Carol Moseley Braun | - | - | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - | 2% | 1% | - | 1% | 2% | - | - | 1% |
Primary polling taken by American Research Group during the last few days of campaigning ( January 23 to January 27, 2004 ) showed that former New Hampshire poll leader as well as national leader Howard Dean was steadily gaining ground on Kerry.
| Candidate | January 23 to 25 poll tracking | January 24 to 26 poll tracking |
|---|---|---|
| John Kerry | 38% | 35% |
| Howard Dean | 20% | 25% |
| John Edwards | 16% | 15% |
| Wesley Clark | 15% | 13% |
| Joe Lieberman | 5% | 6% |
Gathered from ARG's 2004 NH Democratic Tracking Poll[1]
Margin of Error +/- 4
Tracking polling showed that Dean had been catching up to Kerry in the days before the primary, cutting Kerry's 18 point lead to 10 points in a matter of days. With Dean dropping and Kerry rising, it became apparent that the battle for 1st place in New Hampshire would be close. Also, for third place, Wesley Clark, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman were the only ones fighting for third. With Clark and Edwards both taking hits going into the primary, a Lieberman on the rise, the fight for 1st place and third place, according to polls would be intense.
| Candidate | 22 January 2004 | 29 January 2004 | 29 January 2004 | 1 February 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Kerry | 25% | 37% | 44% | 56% |
| John Edwards | 9% | 11% | 14% | 17% |
| Howard Dean | 6% | 7% | 9% | 9% |
| Wesley Clark | 3% | 6% | 5% | 6% |
| Al Sharpton | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| Joe Lieberman | 2% | 6% | 5% | 3% |
| Dennis Kucinich | 1% | - | 1% | - |
| Dick Gephardt | 3% | - | 1% | - |
| Candidate | 29 January 2004 |
|---|---|
| John Kerry | 27% |
| Joe Lieberman | 16% |
| Howard Dean | 14% |
| John Edwards | 9% |
| Wesley Clark | 8% |
| Dennis Kucinich | 1% |
| Al Sharpton | 1% |
| Candidate | 22 December 2003 | 9 January 2004 | 24 January 2004 | 29 January 2004 | 1 February 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Kerry | 6% | 3% | 24% | 29% | 42% |
| Wesley Clark | 15% | 34% | 21% | 22% | 28% |
| Howard Dean | 26% | 27% | 10% | 13% | 15% |
| John Edwards | 1% | 3% | 15% | 8% | 7% |
| Joe Lieberman | 9% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 6% |
| Dick Gephardt | - | 6% | - | - | - |
| Dennis Kucinich | 1% | - | - | 2% | 1% |
| Al Sharpton | - | - | - | 1% | - |
| Carol Moseley Braun | - | 1% | - | - | - |