Predictive Microbiology is the area of food microbiology where controlling factors in foods and responses of pathogenic and spoilage microorganisms are quantified and modelled by mathematical equations [1]

It is based on the thesis that microorganisms' growth and environment are reproducible, and can be modeled.[2][3] Temperature, pH and water activity impact bacterial behavior. These factors can be changed to control food spoilage.[4]

Models can be used to predict pathogen growth in foods. Models are developed in several steps including design, development, validation, and production of an interface to display results.[4] Models can be classified attending to their objective in primary models (describing bacterial growth), secondary models (describing factors affecting bacterial growth) or tertiary models (computer software programs) [5]

References

  1. ^ Dalgaard, Paw (2003). "PREDICTIVE MICROBIOLOGY". FAO corporate document repository. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS.
  2. ^ Ross, T.; McMeekin, T. A. (November 1994). "Predictive microbiology". International Journal of Food Microbiology. 23 (3–4): 241–264. doi:10.1016/0168-1605(94)90155-4. ISSN 0168-1605. PMID 7873329.
  3. ^ "Predictive Microbiology - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics". Sciencedirect. Retrieved 2022-09-08.
  4. ^ a b "PMIP - Overview of Predictive Microbiology". Predictive Microbiology Information Portal. Retrieved 2022-09-08.
  5. ^ Perez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Valero, Antonio (2013). Predictive Microbiology in Foods. New York, NY: Springer New York. doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-5520-2. ISBN 978-1-4614-5519-6. S2CID 60247879.
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