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((Short description|UK lottery bond))
((EngvarB|date=August 2016))
((Use dmy dates|date=November 2020))
((More citations needed|date=January 2008))
[[File:Money box shaped like ERNIE the Computer (Science Museum, London).jpg|thumb|upright|An ERNIE money box]]
A '''Premium Bond''' is a [[lottery bond]] issued by the [[Government of the United Kingdom|United Kingdom government]] since 1956. At present it is issued by the government's [[National Savings and Investments]] agency.

The principle behind Premium Bonds is that rather than the stake being gambled, as in a usual [[lottery]], it is the [[Interest rate|interest]] on the bonds that is distributed by a lottery. The bonds are entered in a monthly [[sweepstakes|prize draw]] and the government promises to buy them back, on request, for their original price.

The government pays interest into the bond fund (4.65% per annum from September 2023)<ref name="nsandirate">((cite web |title=Interest Rates |date=3 August 2020 |url=https://www.nsandi.com/interest-rates |access-date=24 February 2023|publisher=[[National Savings and Investments]]))</ref><ref name=":2">((Cite web |last=Hughes |first=David |date=2022-10-04 |title=The winning Premium Bonds numbers for October 2022, and how to check if you have won |url=https://inews.co.uk/news/consumer/premium-bonds-winners-october-2022-winning-ns-and-i-checker-have-won-1890431 |access-date=2022-10-06 |website=inews.co.uk |language=en))</ref> from which a monthly lottery distributes tax-free prizes to bondholders whose numbers are selected randomly. The machine that generates the numbers is called '''ERNIE''', for '''E'''lectronic '''R'''andom '''N'''umber '''I'''ndicator '''E'''quipment.<ref name="nsandi">((cite web |url = http://www.nsandi.com/ernie|title = Meet ERNIE|access-date = 27 July 2015|publisher = [[National Savings and Investments]]))</ref> Prizes range from £25 to £1,000,000 and (since September 2023) the odds of a £1 bond winning a prize in a given month are 21,000 to 1.<ref name="nsandirate" />

Investors can buy bonds at any time but they must be held for a whole calendar month before they qualify for a prize.  As an example, a bond purchased mid-May must then be held throughout June before being eligible for the draw in July (and onwards). Bonds purchased by reinvestment of prizes are immediately eligible for the following month's draw.

Numbers are entered in the draw each month, with an equal chance of winning, until the bond is cashed. As of 2019, each person may own bonds up to £50,000.<ref>((Cite web |date=1 June 2015 |title=Premium Bonds investment limit rises |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-32958779 |access-date=4 November 2021 |website=BBC News))</ref> Since 1 February 2019, the minimum purchase amount for Premium Bonds has been £25. ((As of|2023|September)) there are over 121((Nbsp))billion eligible Premium Bonds, each having a value of [[Pound sterling|£1]].<ref>((Cite web |date=1 April 2023 |title=How many premium bonds are there? |url=https://moneymarvel.co.uk/articles/how-many-premium-bonds-are-there/ |access-date=28 August 2023|website=Money Marvel))</ref>

When introduced to the wider public in 1957, the only other similar game available in the UK was the [[football pools]], with the [[National Lottery (United Kingdom)|National Lottery]] not coming into existence until 1994. Although many avenues of lotteries and other forms of gambling are now available to British adults, Premium Bonds are held by more than 24 million people,<ref name=":2" /> equivalent to more than 1 in 3 of the UK population.

==History==
The term "premium bond" has been used in the [[English language]] since at least the late 18th century,<ref>''[[Journal of the Royal Statistical Society]]'' '''52''' 316 (1889)</ref> to mean a [[Bond (finance)|bond]] that earns no interest but is eligible for entry into a lottery.

The modern iteration of Premium Bonds were introduced by [[Harold Macmillan]], as [[Chancellor of the Exchequer]], in his [[Budget Day|Budget]] of 17 April 1956,<ref>((cite book|title=Macmillan 1894–1956, volume I |page=383|first=Alistair |last=Horne |author-link=Alistair Horne |isbn=0-333-27691-4 |publisher=Macmillan |location=London|year=1989))</ref> to control inflation and encourage people to save.<ref name="intro">((cite web |url=http://www.nsandi.com/press-room/premiumbonds50/history_pb.jsp |title=The History of Premium Bonds |access-date=7 April 2009 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081204082245/http://www.nsandi.com/press-room/premiumbonds50/history_pb.jsp |archive-date=4 December 2008))</ref> On 1 November 1956, in front of the [[Royal Exchange, London|Royal Exchange]] in the City of London, the [[Lord Mayor of London]], [[Alderman]] Sir [[Cuthbert Ackroyd]], bought the first bond from the Postmaster General, Dr [[Charles Hill, Baron Hill of Luton|Charles Hill]], for £1. Councillor William Crook, the mayor of [[Lytham St Anne's]], bought the second. The Premium Bonds office was in [[St Annes-on-Sea]], Lancashire, until it moved to [[Blackpool]] in 1978.<ref name="nsandi2">((cite web|url=http://nsandi.com/press-room/premiumbonds50/history_pb.jsp |title=The history of Premium Bonds |access-date=7 April 2009 |publisher=NS&I |url-status=unfit |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100102114755/http://nsandi.com/press-room/premiumbonds50/history_pb.jsp |archive-date=2 January 2010 ))</ref>

==ERNIE==<!-- This section is linked from [[ERNIE]] -->
[[File:ERNIE1 2012.JPG|thumb|ERNIE 1 on display at the [[Science Museum, London]], 2012|alt=]]
ERNIE is a [[hardware random number generator]]. The first ERNIE was built at the [[Post Office Research Station]] by a team led by Sidney Broadhurst. The designers were [[Tommy Flowers]]<ref>((cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/insideout/northwest/series6/premium_bonds.shtml |title=BBC Inside Out – Premium Bonds |publisher=BBC |access-date=14 January 2010))</ref> and [[Harry Fensom]] and it derives from [[Colossus computer|Colossus]], one of the world's first digital computers.<ref>((cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=NNgzd0xujzsC&q=ernie&pg=PR13 |title=Colossus: the secrets of Bletchley ... – Google Books |date= 23 February 2006|publisher=OUP Oxford |access-date=14 January 2010|isbn=9780192840554 ))</ref><ref name=":0">((Cite web|title = First ERNIE computer picked for Science Museum|url = https://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2008/jun/13/firsterniecomputerpickedfo|website = The Guardian|access-date = 27 July 2015|first = Jack|last = Schofield|date = 13 June 2008))</ref> It was introduced in 1957,<ref name="nsandi" /> with the first draw on 1 June, and generated bond numbers from the [[signal noise]] created by [[neon]] tubes.  The name is an acronym for Electronic Random Number Indicator Equipment. ERNIE 1 is in the collections of the [[Science Museum, London|Science Museum]] in London and was on display between 2008 and 2015.<ref name=":0" />

ERNIE 2 replaced the first ERNIE in 1972.<ref name="nsandi" />

ERNIE 3 in 1988 was the size of a personal computer;<ref name="nsandi" /> at the end of its life it took five and a half hours to complete its monthly draw.

In August 2004, ERNIE 4 was brought into service in anticipation of an increase in prizes each month from September 2004.<ref name="nsandi" /> Developed by [[LogicaCMG]], it was 500 times faster than the original and generated a million numbers an hour; these were checked against a list of valid bonds. By comparison, the original ERNIE generated 2,000 numbers an hour and was the size of a van.<ref name="nsandi" />

ERNIE 4 used [[Johnson–Nyquist noise|thermal noise]] in transistors as its source of randomness to generate true random numbers; the original ERNIE used a gas neon diode. In contrast, [[pseudorandom number]]s, although sometimes simply referred to as random, are produced deterministically by the [[algorithm]] used to generate them. The randomness of ERNIE's numbers derived from random [[Fluctuation theorem|statistical fluctuations]] in the physical processes involved. ERNIE's output was independently tested each month by the [[Government Actuary's Department]], the draw being valid only if it was certified to be statistically consistent with randomness. At the end of its life it was moved to Bletchley Park's [[The National Museum of Computing|National Museum of Computing]].

ERNIE 5, the latest model, was brought into service in March 2019, and is a quantum random number generator built by [[ID Quantique]]. It uses quantum technology to produce random numbers through light, replacing the former 'thermal noise' method. Running at speeds 21,000 times faster than the first ERNIE, it can produce 3 million winners in just 12 minutes each month.<ref name="2019-03-01-guardian">((cite news |last1=Collinson |first1=Patrick |title=Premium bond Ernie takes quantum leap into fifth generation |url=https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/mar/01/premium-bond-ernie-takes-quantum-leap-into-fifth-generation |access-date=1 March 2019 |work=The Guardian|date=1 March 2019))</ref>

===In popular culture===
ERNIE, anthropomorphised in early advertising, receives [[Valentine's Day|Valentine]] cards, Christmas cards and letters from the public.<ref name="nsandi" /> It is the subject of the song "E.R.N.I.E." by [[Madness (band)|Madness]], from the 1980 album [[Absolutely (Madness album)|''Absolutely'']]. It is also referenced by [[Jethro Tull (band)|Jethro Tull]] in their album ''[[Thick as a Brick]]''.

==Winning==
Winners of the jackpot are told on the first working day of the month, although the actual date of the draw varies. The online prize finder<ref>((cite web|url=http://www.nsandi.com/savings-premium-bonds-have-i-won |title=Premium Bonds prize checker |publisher=[[National Savings and Investments]] |access-date=28 March 2011))</ref> is updated by the third or fourth working day of the month. Winners of the top £1m prize are told in person of their win by "Agent Million", an NS&I employee, usually on the day before the first working day of the month.<ref>((Cite web|url=https://www.nsandi.com/help/manage-your-savings/premium-bonds-prizes|title=Your Premium Bonds prizes|date=3 August 2020|website=Nsandi.com|access-date=4 November 2021))</ref> However, in-person visits were suspended, starting in May 2020, during the [[COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom]].<ref>((Cite web|url=https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1281082/premium-bonds-nsi-agent-million-check-winnings|title=Premium bonds: Jackpot winners will no longer be visited by 'Agent Million' – what to do|first=Connor|last=Coombe-Whitlock|date=12 May 2020|website=Express.co.uk|access-date=4 November 2021))</ref>

Bond holders can check whether they have won any prizes on the National Savings & Investment ''Premium Bond Prize Checker'' website, or the smartphone app, which provides lists of winning bond numbers for the past six months.<ref>((cite web | title = Premium Bond Prize Checker|website=Nsandi.com | url = http://www.nsandi.com/savings-premium-bonds-have-i-won | access-date = 10 April 2012 ))</ref> Older winning numbers (more than 18 months old) can also be checked in the ''[[London Gazette]] Premium Bonds Unclaimed Prizes Supplement''.<ref>((cite web | title = London Gazette Unclaimed Prizes supplement | url = http://www.london-gazette.co.uk/issues/exact=Premium+Bonds+Unclaimed+Prizes;sort=newest/start=1|website=London-gazette.co.uk | access-date = 10 April 2012 ))</ref>

===Odds of winning===
In December 2008, NS&I reduced the interest rate (and therefore the odds of winning) due to the drop in the Bank of England base rate during the [[Financial crisis of 2007-2009|credit crunch]], leading to criticism from members of Parliament, financial experts and holders of bonds; many claimed Premium Bonds were now "worthless", and somebody with £30,000 invested and "average luck" would win only 10 prizes a year compared to 15 the previous year.<ref name="telegraph.co.uk">((cite news|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/savings/3569665/Premium-bonds-worthless-as-savers-see-their-chances-of-prizes-fall-drastically.html |title=Savings |newspaper=The Telegraph|date= 5 December 2008|access-date=14 January 2010 | location=London | first1=Myra | last1=Butterworth | first2=Harry | last2=Wallop))</ref><ref name="guardian.co.uk">((cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/money/2008/dec/06/premium-bond-prizes |title=Now bond prizes are at a premium &#124; Money |newspaper=The Guardian |date= 6 December 2008|access-date=14 January 2010 | location=London | first=Rupert | last=Jones))</ref> Investors with smaller, although significant, amounts would possibly win nothing.

From 1 January 2009 the odds of winning a prize for each £1 of bond was 36,000 to 1. In October 2009, the odds returned to 24,000 to 1 with the prize fund interest rate increase.<ref>((cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8258318.stm|title=Higher payouts from Premium Bonds|date=16 September 2009|work=BBC News|access-date=14 January 2010))</ref> The odds reached 26,000 to 1 by October 2013 and then reverted to 24,500 to 1 in November 2017.<ref name=":1">((Cite web |date=3 August 2020 |title=Interest rates |url=https://www.nsandi.com/interest-rates |access-date=4 November 2021 |website=Nsandi.com))</ref>

((As of|2023|September)), the odds of winning are 1/21000;<ref>((cite web|url=http://www.nsandi.com/savings-premium-bonds|title=NS&I Premium Bonds|website=Nsandi.com|date=3 August 2020 |access-date=14 February 2021))</ref> resulting in the expected number of prizes for the maximum £50,000 worth of bonds being 29 per year. The calculation is 1/21000 x 12 (draws per year) x 50,000 (number of bonds held) rounded up. Assuming a most likely return of 5 x £25, 12 x £50, and 12 x £100 prizes; the other prizes being much less likely in a particular year, this is an effective interest rate of 3.85%.

* Individual bond over a year and the chance of winning something is 0.06%.
* Hold £500 over a year and the chance of winning something is 24.85%.
* Hold £1,225 over a year and the chance of winning something is 50.34%.
* Hold £5,056 over a year and the chance of winning something is 94.44%. ★
* Hold £8,050 over a year and the chance of winning something is 98.99%.

 ★ The 'MEAN' average amount held in the September 2023 draw.

With the 'MEAN' average held, you can expect to win at least the amounts shown below over the course of a year (12 entries):

* £175 with a 53.85% chance; equivalent to a interest rate of 3.46%.
* £200 with a 48.96% chance; equivalent to a interest rate of 3.96%.

===Prize fund distribution===
The prize fund is equal to one month's interest on all bonds eligible for the draw. The annual interest is set by NS&I and was 1.40% ((As of|2017|12|lc=on)), reducing to 1.00% ((As of|2020|12|lc=on)).  This was increased to 2.2%, ((As of|2022|10|lc=on)) then increased again to 3% ((As of|2023|01|lc=on)) and is now at 4.65% from September 2023.<ref>((cite web|url= https://nsandi-corporate.com/news-research/news/nsi-increases-interest-rates-0 |title=NS&I increases interest rates |date=25 October 2022 |publisher=Nsandi.com |access-date=25 October 2022))</ref> The following table lists the distribution of prizes on offer in the September 2023 draw.<ref>((cite web|url=https://www.nsandi.com/prize-checker?tab=prize-draw-details&panel=tab2 |title=NS&I Premium Bond prize draw details |publisher=Nsandi.com |access-date=3 December 2017))</ref>

{| class="wikitable"
! Prize band
! Prize value
! width=110pt|Estimated number of prizes each month
! width=130pt|Odds of winning with a £1 bond
|-
| rowspan="6" | '''Higher value'''<br /><small>10% of the prize fund</small>
| £1,000,000
|style="text-align:right"| 2
| 1 in 60.72 billion 
|-
| £100,000
|style="text-align:right"| 90
| 1 in 1.349 billion 
|-
| £50,000
|style="text-align:right"| 180
| 1 in 674,636,890
|-
| £25,000
|style="text-align:right"| 361
| 1 in 336,384,045
|-
| £10,000
|style="text-align:right"| 902
| 1 in 134,628,205
|-
| £5,000
|style="text-align:right"| 1,802
| 1 in 67,388,813
|-
| rowspan="2" | '''Medium value'''<br /><small>10% of the prize fund</small>
| £1,000
|style="text-align:right"| 18,822
| 1 in 6,451,740
|-
| £500
|style="text-align:right"| 56,466
| 1 in 2,150,580
|-
| rowspan="3" | '''Low value'''<br /><small>80% of the prize fund</small>
| £100
|style="text-align:right"| 2,338,498
| 1 in 51,929
|-
| £50
|style="text-align:right"| 2,338,498
| 1 in 51,930
|-
| £25
|style="text-align:right"| 1,026,981
| 1 in 118,249
|-
| '''Total value'''<br />(September 2023)
| £470,559,225
|style="text-align:right"| 5,782,602
| 1 in 21,000
|}

==In other countries==
[[File:India 1964 Premium Prize Bond certificate.jpg|thumbnail|Similar prize schemes operate in other countries, for instance this Premium Prize Bond certificate from India]]
Premium Bonds under various names exist or have existed in various countries. Similar programmes to UK Premium Bonds include:

* In the Republic of Ireland, [[Prize Bond]]s also originated in early 1957.
* In Sweden, "Premieobligationer" usually run for five years and are traded on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm. The unit (one Bond) is generally 1000 SEK or 5000 SEK. Holders of 10 or 50 consecutive bonds starting at 1 + N * 10 or 50 are guaranteed one win per year.<ref>((cite web|url=https://www.riksgalden.se/en/savings/Premieobligationer/ |title=Swedish premium bonds, English summary |publisher=Swedish Government |access-date=12 September 2013))</ref> Outstanding bonds ((As of|2013|September|lc=y)) were around 28.9 billion SEK.<ref>((cite web|url=https://www.riksgalden.se/sv/spara/Premieobligationer/Fakta-villkor/ |title=List of outstanding Swedish Premium bond series |publisher=Swedish Government |access-date=12 September 2013))</ref>
* In Denmark, "Premieobligationer" usually ran for five or 10 years with a fixed prize list printed on the physical bonds. They were physical bearer bonds and most series were extended one or more times by another 5 or 10 years. The last series have now ended and must be redeemed for their principal cash within 10 years of the final ending dates.<ref>((cite web |url=http://www.statens-adm.dk/da/Laan-tilskud-og-stoette/Praemieobligationer/Indloesning-af-praemieobligationer |title=Redeeming of Premium Bonds (in Danish) |publisher=Danish Government |date=19 November 2012 |access-date=12 September 2013 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131004214207/http://www.statens-adm.dk/da/Laan-tilskud-og-stoette/Praemieobligationer/Indloesning-af-praemieobligationer |archive-date=4 October 2013))</ref> The bonds were generally identified by their colour, for instance the blue premium bonds were issued in 1948, and were redeemed in 1998 (10 years + 4 10-year extension).<ref>((cite web|url=https://www.retsinformation.dk/Forms/R0710.aspx?id=5118 | title=Proclamation on renewal of two State Premium Bond Loans |publisher=Danish Minister of Finance|date=18 December 1987 |access-date=12 September 2013))</ref> The first 200 DKK of each prize was tax free, the rest taxed at only 15% (compared to 30% or more for ordinary income).<ref>((cite web|url=https://www.retsinformation.dk/Forms/R0710.aspx?id=5117 | title=Law authorizing the issue of domestic state loans| publisher=Queen of Denmark and Danish Parliament|date=28 March 1984|access-date=12 September 2013))</ref>
* In New Zealand, "Bonus Bonds" were established by the NZ Government in 1970 and sold to ANZ Bank in 1990.<ref>((cite web |url=https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12121259 |title=Brian Gaynor: Who are the real Bonus Bonds winners? |website=The New Zealand Herald |date=8 September 2018))</ref> In August 2020 it was announced that the scheme would close due to low interest rates reducing the prize pool. At the time of the announcement there were 1.2m bondholders with NZD $3.2 billion invested.<ref>((cite web |url=https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=12364031 |title=Kiwis withdraw $766 million from ANZ's Bonus Bond scheme |website=The New Zealand Herald |date=4 October 2020))</ref>

=== Unrelated concepts ===
In 2023, American economist [[Paul Krugman]] used the name "premium bonds" for an unrelated type of bond that he proposed to avoid a default due to the [[United States debt ceiling]].<ref>Daniel, Will.  [https://fortune.com/2023/05/03/paul-krugman-biden-mint-trillion-dollar-coin-other-option-national-debt-ceiling/ "Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says yes, Biden could mint a $1 trillion coin to avert the debt ceiling—but there’s a better option out there"], ''[[Fortune (magazine)|Fortune]]'' (3 May 2023).</ref>

==Academic studies==
In 2008 two financial economists, Lobe and Hoelzl, analysed the main driving factors for the immense marketing success of Premium Bonds. One in three Britons invest in Premium Bonds. The thrill of gambling is significantly boosted by enhancing the [[skewness]] of the prize distribution. However, using data collected over the past fifty years, they found that the bond bears relatively low risk compared to many other investments.<ref>((cite journal|ssrn=992794 |title=SSRN-Why are British Premium Bonds so Successful? The Effect of Saving With a Thrill by Sebastian Lobe, Alexander Hölzl |publisher=Papers.ssrn.com |date=19 March 2008 ))</ref>

[[Aaron Brown (financial author)|Aaron Brown]] discusses in a 2006 book Premium Bonds in comparison with [[equity-linked note|equity-linked]], commodity-linked and other "added risk" bonds.<ref>[[Aaron Brown (financial author)|Aaron Brown]], ''The Poker Face of Wall Street'', John Wiley & Sons, 2006.</ref> His conclusion is that it makes little difference, either to a retail investor or from a theoretical finance perspective, whether the added risk comes from a random number generator or from fluctuations in financial markets.

==See also==
* [[Prize-linked savings account|Prize-linked savings accounts]] are savings accounts which use a similar system to grant interest
==References==
((Reflist))

==External links==
* [http://www.nsandi.com/ National Savings & Investments website]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2779179.stm Are Premium Bonds worth it?] – BBC News, 2006
* [https://www.theguardian.com/money/2006/nov/01/bonds.saving Q&A: Premium Bonds] – ''The Guardian'', 2006

[[Category:Companies based in Blackpool]]
[[Category:Companies based in Glasgow]]
[[Category:Borough of Fylde]]
[[Category:Government bonds issued by the United Kingdom]]
[[Category:1956 introductions]]
[[Category:Personal finance]]
[[Category:Public finance of the United Kingdom]]
[[Category:Lotteries in the United Kingdom]]
[[Category:History of computing in the United Kingdom]]
[[Category:Tax-advantaged savings plans in the United Kingdom]]

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Module:Check for unknown parameters (view source) (protected)
Module:Citation/CS1 (view source) (protected)
Module:Citation/CS1/COinS (view source) (protected)
Module:Citation/CS1/Configuration (view source) (protected)
Module:Citation/CS1/Date validation (view source) (protected)
Module:Citation/CS1/Identifiers (view source) (protected)
Module:Citation/CS1/Utilities (view source) (protected)
Module:Citation/CS1/Whitelist (view source) (protected)
Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css (view source) (protected)
Module:Disambiguation/templates (view source) (protected)
Module:Find sources (view source) (template editor protected)
Module:Find sources/config (view source) (template editor protected)
Module:Find sources/links (view source) (template editor protected)
Module:Find sources/templates/Find sources mainspace (view source) (template editor protected)
Module:Message box (view source) (protected)
Module:Message box/ambox.css (view source) (protected)
Module:Message box/configuration (view source) (protected)
Module:Namespace detect/config (view source) (protected)
Module:Namespace detect/data (view source) (protected)
Module:Ns has subpages (view source) (protected)
Module:Pagetype (view source) (protected)
Module:Pagetype/config (view source) (protected)
Module:Pagetype/disambiguation (view source) (protected)
Module:Pagetype/setindex (view source) (protected)
Module:Pagetype/softredirect (view source) (protected)
Module:SDcat (view source) (protected)
Module:String (view source) (protected)
Module:Unsubst (view source) (protected)
Module:Wikitext Parsing (view source) (protected)
Module:Yesno (view source) (protected)

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