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Reagan campaigning for David Durenberger in the 1982 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota

The Reagan coalition was the combination of voters that Republican Ronald Reagan assembled to produce a major political realignment with his electoral landslide in the 1980 United States presidential election. The coalition was possible because of Democrat Jimmy Carter's losses in most social-economic groups. In 1984, Reagan confirmed his support by winning nearly 60% of the popular vote and carried 49 of the 50 states.

The Reagan Democrats were members of the Democratic Party before and after the Reagan presidency, but voted for Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and for his vice president, George H. W. Bush, in 1988, producing their landslide victories. They were mostly white socially conservative blue-collar workers who lived in the Northeast and were attracted to Reagan's social conservatism on issues such as abortion and to his hawkish foreign policy. They did not continue to vote Republican in 1992 or 1996, causing the term to fall into disuse except as a reference to the 1980s. The term is not generally used to describe the white Southerners who permanently changed party affiliation from Democrat to Republican during Reagan's presidency. They have largely remained Republican to this day.

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg analyzed white, largely unionized auto workers in suburban Macomb County, Michigan, just north of Detroit. The county voted 63% for John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election and 66% for Reagan in 1984. He concluded that Reagan Democrats no longer saw Democrats as champions of their middle class aspirations. They instead viewed the Democratic Party as working primarily for the benefit of others, especially African Americans and the very poor.

The Reagan coalition began to fall apart after 1988 when Reagan was ineligible for reelection and Bush won over Democrat Michael Dukakis. Bush lost over 5 million votes and 100 electoral votes in comparison to what Reagan won four years prior. In 1992, Bush faced a competitive primary competition with Pat Buchanan, still winning the Republican nomination with 72% of the vote. Bush went on to lose the general election against Democrat Bill Clinton, with exit polling showing Bush retaining 66% of the Republican vote, Clinton winning 12%, and independent candidate Ross Perot winning 21%. In 1996, Republican Bob Dole lost to Clinton, taking 68% of the Republican vote, improving on Bush's margin, while Clinton took 23% and Perot 7%.

Voter demographics

1980 and 1976 voter groups and presidential votes
% of the total
1980 vote
Group Carter (1980) Reagan (1980) Anderson (1980) Carter (1976) Ford (1976)
Party
43 Democratic 65 26 6 77 22
23 Independent 30 54 12 43 54
28 Republican 11 84 4 9 90
Ideology
18 Liberal 57 27 11 70 26
51 Moderate 42 48 8 51 48
31 Conservative 23 71 4 29 70
Race
10 Black 82 14 3 82 16
2 Hispanic 54 36 7 75 24
88 White 36 55 8 47 52
Sex
48 Female 45 46 7 50 48
52 Male 37 54 7 50 48
Religion
46 Protestant 37 56 6 44 55
41 White Protestant 31 62 6 43 57
25 Catholic 40 51 7 54 44
5 Jewish 45 39 14 64 34
Family income
13 Less than $10,000 50 41 6 58 40
15 $10,000–$14,999 47 42 8 55 43
29 $15,000–$24,999 38 53 7 48 50
24 $25,000–$50,000 32 58 8 36 62
5 Over $50,000 25 65 8 — —
Occupation
39 Professional or manager 33 56 9 41 57
11 Clerical, sales, white collar 42 48 8 46 53
17 Blue-collar 46 47 5 57 41
3 Agriculture 29 66 3 — —
3 Unemployed 55 35 7 65 34
Education
11 Less than high school 50 45 3 58 41
28 High school graduate 43 51 4 54 46
28 Some college 35 55 8 51 49
27 College graduate 35 51 11 45 55
Union membership
28 Labor union household 47 44 7 59 39
62 No member of household in union 35 55 8 43 55
Age
6 18–21 years old 44 43 11 48 50
17 22–29 years old 43 43 11 51 46
31 30–44 years old 37 54 7 49 49
23 45–59 years old 39 55 6 47 52
18 60 years or older 40 54 4 47 52
Region
25 East 42 47 9 51 47
27 South 44 51 3 54 45
22 South (whites) 35 60 3 46 52
27 Midwest 40 51 7 48 50
19 Far West 35 53 9 46 51
Community size
18 City over 250,000 54 35 8 60 40
53 Suburb/small city 37 53 8 53 47
29 Rural/town 39 54 5 47 53
Source:[1]

See also

Citations

  1. ^ CBS News/The New York Times interviews with 12,782 voters as they left the polls as reported in The New York Times, November 9, 1980, p. 28. 1976 data are from CBS News interviews.

Further reading

  • Ehrman, John. The Eighties: America in the Age of Reagan. (2005).
  • Ferguson Thomas, and Joel Rogers, Right Turn: The Decline of the Democrats and the Future of American Politics 1986.
  • Germond, Jack W. and Jules Witcover. Blue Smoke & Mirrors: How Reagan Won & Why Carter Lost the Election of 1980. 1981. Detailed journalism.
  • Greenberg, Stan. Middle Class Dreams: The Politics and Power of the New American Majority (1985).
  • Jensen, Richard J., Steven L. Piott, Christopher C. Gibbs; Grass Roots Politics: Parties, Issues, and Voters, 1854-1983 Greenwood Press, 1983.
  • Nelson Michael ed. The Elections of 1984 1985.
  • Patterson, James T. Restless Giant: The United States from Watergate to Bush vs. Gore. (2005), standard scholarly synthesis.
  • Pemberton, William E. Exit with Honor: The Life and Presidency of Ronald Reagan (1998).
  • Troy, Gill. Morning in America: How Ronald Reagan Invented the 1980s (2004). Study of Reagan's image.
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